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USD CAD is Making shapes! So OK. I was wrong the first time about the break out on this market and it cost me 100 pips. I learned the "wait and see" lesson (again). And a lot of the other traders did predict this spike back up into trend before the bear run. However, what to watch for? So this newly formed head and shoulders gives us its neck line on old support/resistance which is nice, it allows for an aggressive bearish trade off this marker, and also gives us an upper section of the forming bearish trend. I will be taking this trade which I expect to line up today, but I will be entering on Bearish candle patterns only and a clear rejection of the resistance. Ill be setting my stops above the recent shoulder but will be managing this in real time and getting out at the first sign of trouble. A longer term and more conservative approach would be to wait for confirmation of the blue trend line and sell off this on each pass. I'll probably be doing that too, but that's one for next month.
Short
by GDKLockout
LONG Trading the head and shoulders patternsn the above chart, we notice from the left of the chart, that price was in a down trend. Soon, it establishes resistance level and drops lower only to rally back up to test the resistance. On successful test of the resistance, price drops back to make a lower low, forming the head and eventually makes the right shoulder. After this, price breaks the neckline resistance and starts to rally. In terms of the projected price, it is the measured distance from the head to the neckline, projected upwards from the break of the neckline. As can be seen from the chart, price continues on to rally making new highs.
Short
by ZubrMoldova
Trading the head and shoulders patternThe above chart, we notice from the left of the chart, that price was in a down trend. Soon, it establishes resistance level and drops lower only to rally back up to test the resistance. On successful test of the resistance, price drops back to make a lower low, forming the head and eventually makes the right shoulder. After this, price breaks the neckline resistance and starts to rally. In terms of the projected price, it is the measured distance from the head to the neckline, projected upwards from the break of the neckline. As can be seen from the chart, price continues on to rally making new highs.
Short
by ZubrMoldova
Short EURGBP - H&S forming in Supply ZonePurists will tell you not to trade the H&S until the neckline breaks. I tend to prefer the outcome of looking for a nice reversal on the right shoulder, because you're already in a zone of resistance as proved by the left shoulder and head. If you do see a good reversal pattern at this level, you have a good chance of returning to the neckline as an initial target and an even nicer reward if the neckline breaks and you head further down to confirm and complete the H&S pattern. In the case of EURGBP -0.23% I think this ties in well with a period of likely uncertainty for the EU, which is likely to cause headwinds for the Euro 0.11% and possible a flow of capital back towards the pound as the predicted brexit armageddon continues to fail to occur.
Short
by BobVanders
1
Possible Head & Shoulders FormingFirstly some fundamentals. Basic materials have dropped 4.4% in the last month and 5.7% in the last week. In this sector mining has seen a 7.83% drop in the last week and 12.49% in the last month (source finviz and stockcharts.com). This specific stock has performed worse with a weekly drop of 8.23% and 14.02% monthly. This gives an overall picture of weakness at this current point in time for this stock and industry. Going onto the chart I have firstly labelled the possible head and shoulders. Until the neckline is broken though (preferably on heavy volume that breaks the trend-line I've drawn for that) this is not a confirmed pattern. On the head I've drawn a box that incorporates a double top and a tweezer top which also has a bearish engulfing pattern. Below this a gap that doesn't get closed by the second box I've drawn on. This box is interesting in a few ways, firstly there is a moving average crossover of a 20 day MA and a 50 day MA (which is also resistance as the price on that day doesn't hold above the 50 day MA) indicating the short term trend has turned bearish. Another interesting point is that the candle is clearly a shooting star which is confirmed by a small gap down and a strong red candle after. This candle also falls on a crossover of the stochastic oscillator set at 5,3,3 with a neutral rating of 50 on the RSI. Volume has been contracting through the development of the possible head and shoulders and the longer term stochastic has also recently crossed over indicating more downward momentum. The RSI is currently on the support zone for a bull market which has been tested on numerous occasion throughout the bull phase of this move. There was a whipsaw signal given on the previous low which gave us our neckline. The price is currently on the 100 day MA and would be a further bearish signal if it were to break this line. Upon a successful completion of a breakthrough the neckline I would expect to see the following. Firstly the 100 day MA would turn to resistance. Secondly the RSI would drop to below 30 and below the previous low. The longer term stochastic would also drop below the 20 mark which is the lower boundary in that window. The price should drop to the 0.382 Fibonacci level where there is already support. It could then retrace to the neckline/100 day MA. This should give the Stochastic and RSI a chance to come out of the oversold region before the price falls further. The RSI should not exceed 65 on this retracement. The price target for this move, derived by the head and shoulders measuring implications are shown by the vertical line. The 0.5 Fibonacci level is also a good support level very close to the price target. The 200 day MA is also currently within the price zone marked by the rectangle adding another support function. Further bearish signals are lower lows and lower highs (right shoulder), a bearish harami on the 13th of this month, a confluence resistance of 26 at 41.21 (just above the shooting star) with the next strongest support of 6 being at 31.55, we also have a bearish MACD signal not shown on this chart (stockta.com source). Any questions welcome.
NYSE:NEMShort
by ivan.tory.56
Big Diamond Pattern Atop Carnival Cruise CorpBig Diamond Pattern Atop Carnival Cruise Corp When forecasting you have to take a lot of information into consideration, you have to also find the needed information to make a forecast. What we know in the short term, Carnival Corp CCL, average analyst stock price estimates post Q2 earnings - June 28 - was $60.50 and high estimate for 2016 of $80. Brexit aftermath has slowed stock momentum and was in an industry that was hardest hit other than global banks. If Carnival does infact beat estimates, which it has solidly for nearly two years straight, we could be in a big surprise to the upside. Long term, estimates for all corporate earnings are extremely overpriced. 2017 is expected to price nearly a 20% rise in earnings for the S&P 500. With the Federal Reserve and rating agencies ready to revise these numbers early next year, along with analyst revisions, this could be a disaster for US stocks in 2017. Diamond Pattern We can't always assume which direction the diamond pattern will follow, but we do know that massive volatility will shoot out of the pattern once a diamond pattern is completed. Studies have shown Diamond Patterns are the best patterns to forecast future volatility. Diamond Patterns shape have also proven to slightly improve long term forecast, but not always short term forecast. Short term direction after the patterns has completed, may not always be the ultimate direction the pattern wants to go. Often Diamonds shoot out fast head fakes in the short term, while the direction of the diamond has been pointing to a direction opposite of the head fake. So traders need to take into consideration short term vs long term, when studying the diamonds direction (red arrows on chart point to downward momentum).
NYSE:CCLLong
by QuantitativeExhaustion