The Seven Major Factors Affecting Gold.Firstly, the demand for gold commodities affects the price.
In addition to its use as a daily decorative item, gold plays an important role in industry, occupying an irreplaceable position in industries such as dentistry, electronics, and others. As a hedge tool, the price of gold is influenced by demand, and the supply and demand relationship directly affects the price of gold. Changes in production will also affect the gold price, such as the demand for teeth in Japan and the demand for jewelry in India, both of which directly affect the monthly price trend of gold each year.
Secondly, the gold output determines the supply-demand balance of gold.
The production of gold-producing countries directly affects the supply-demand balance of gold. Currently, China has the largest gold production, followed by South Africa. Any unexpected event, such as strikes and other special situations, will have an impact on the gold price.
Thirdly, international interest rates and exchange rates directly affect the gold price.
Interest rates and exchange rates have a direct impact on the gold price, especially the trend of the US dollar. The international status of the US gold price directly determines the status of the country's international finance, and the price of the US dollar also directly affects the price of gold. As the US dollar, which also has investment functions like gold, it directly affects the gold price. If the investment trend of the US dollar is strong, gold investment will be relatively less, while the opposite is true for the US dollar in a weak investment market, where the role of gold as a reserve asset and a hedge will be stronger.
Fourthly, inflation stimulates the gold price.
When the consumer price index rises and inflation affects investments, gold is no exception. When the price fluctuation of a country is severe, and the inflation rate is high, and the price fluctuation is severe, people's panic will intensify. When purchasing power declines, people will worry about future security and choose to buy gold to hedge, which will cause the gold price to continue to rise. Although the current role of gold in fighting inflation is not as significant as before, high inflation will still stimulate the gold price.
Fifthly, political situations such as wars can stimulate the gold price.
Political instability promotes the rise of the gold price, and war causes a rise in commodity prices, leading to a rise in gold prices. Similarly, as a critical strategic material, the price of gold has a remarkable correlation with the price of oil. When the price of oil rises, the gold price rises as well. Conversely, when the price of oil falls, the gold price also falls.
Sixth, as a safe-haven demand, gold is the first choice
Due to the small total reserves, the price of gold is relatively stable, and because it has served as a currency, it is an excellent tool for hedging and hedging. As an important hedging tool, gold has strong political sensitivity. Jewelry in prosperous times, gold in troubled times, when the economy is in recession, investment will favor gold more, and it will also directly affect the price of gold.
7. Investors’ psychological expectations
The psychological expectations of investors are an important factor affecting the price of gold, but they usually do not act alone. Instead, they often change in conjunction with the variations in the aforementioned factors, amplifying or reducing the expected value of gold and causing significant differences in its price.
Following the footsteps of the market, respecting the market, and aweing the market is to follow the market
Pay attention to me and you will discover that trading is so simple and enjoyable!
Growth
Insider Trading VERA Buy?Various insiders and investment groups are dumping large amounts of money into NASDAQ:VERA . Historically this happened in 2021-2022 and from what I have seen they sold with a profit of about 25% a few months later. I think this could be reoccurring. This can be seen by the huge POC nearly at the current price.
openinsider.com
Here is the link to see for yourself.
Comment what you think!
Amplitude: 2021 IPO Comeback Kid $AMPL $COIN $SNOWDoesn't look like there are many buyers for $AMPL, a peer of $COIN $SNOW 2020-2021 IPO cohorts, though business results look promising in the long-term.
I'd say anything above $10 is a good entry for this as a long-term tech stock that can outperform in future cycles.
Amplitude Inc (NASDAQ:AMPL)
The 8 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Amplitude Inc have a median target of $17.50, with a high estimate of 20.00 and a low estimate of 15.00 . The median estimate represents a +32.28% increase from the last price of 13.23.
In the chart above, I have 3 bullish scenarios. All 3 are negated if the price drops below $10
As of now, it looks like there's still a lot of post-IPO sell pressure and aside from price defense at $10 late this year, not much new insti investor interest.
"We're so early!" - Famous Last Words
Microsoft growth doubt$MSFT has been down trending following this parallel channel's support & resistance, now testing resistance at $280 which is perfectly aligned with the daily 200MA & 0.5 fib level.
Fundamentally, fear from Q3 results because of interest rates hike & recession doubts, share holders will take partial profits at $280 or a little bit higher protecting themselves from the negative earnings impact.
DXY soaring:
TVC:DXY
UniDex: a DeFi aggregator for traders🟢 Here is a project that is off the radar in its embryonic phase, whose intention is to be an aggregator of Swaps, Options, Perpetual Contracts, etc.
The risk is very high: the token is not yet on any CEX. Only traded on the Ethereum network and Arbitrum network.
📝 Definition
"UniDex's primary mission is to provide the most seamless trading experience by aggregating anything & everything. We aim to be the Nasdaq of DeFi.
UniDex is a DeFi platform that aims to provide a hub for traders to access the best rates for financial instruments within the ecosystem.
We envision UniDex as a platform similar to NASDAQ, where traders can place orders for any type of financial instrument, and UniDex will route the order to the best available rate against hundreds of sources & matching orders. In the short and long term, UniDex plans to offer a range of trading tools to support this experience, including...
Options Aggregation
Swap Aggregation
Perpetual Aggregation
Cross-chain trading
Exotic leverage trading pairs
Advanced analytics
and many more opportunities to come
"
📈 DeFi
For now, the token can be traded on Uniswap (Ethereum network), and on TraderJoe (Arbitrum network).
Value, Growth or neither?Looking at equity markets as a conflict between Value stocks and Growth stocks has become a reflex for many market commentators. ‘Growth is beating Value’ (or the other way around) is always a good headline. Value stocks are defined as basically cheap stocks and it is, therefore, possible in any index, to point to the Value side of that index. Growth stocks are defined as stocks with above-average growth prospects. So again, it is possible to look at an index and point to the growthiest stocks. The main index providers have done exactly that by splitting their main indices in two down the middle, a Growth and a Value version, as early as the 1980s.
Using Value and Growth to explain the last ten years
While simplistic and playing into human’s love of false dichotomies, it is true that this narrative explained the last ten years of equity performance pretty well. From the overwhelming domination of Growth stocks, in a negative interest rate environment where investment was cheap, to the start of a Value revival last year, on the back of the most aggressive tightening cycle in decades.
What about the other factors? Didn’t Quality perform better over that period?
However, most things in our world can’t be reduced to a simple choice. Academics have demonstrated over the last five decades that multiple other factors can be used to slice and dice the markets to create outperforming portfolios. In the 90s, Fama and French introduced their 3-factors model using Value but also Size and Momentum to explain market returns. More recently, they added Profitability (often called Quality) and Investment in a new 5-factors model.
Looking at the performance of the seven leading factors over the last ten years, we note that while Growth beat the market by 1.6% per annum and Value underperformed by 1.9% per annum, the strongest factor was, in fact, Quality with an outperformance of 2.3% per annum1.
Is Quality Value or Growth, then?
Using Quality as a third lens, we observe that companies in the Value index are, on average, less profitable than those in the benchmark, and that those in the Growth index are, on average, more so. 23% of the S&P 500 Value exhibit less than 10% in return on equity (ROE) versus less than 5% for the S&P 500 Growth. And 25% of the S&P 500 Growth has more than 50% in ROE versus less than 5% for the Value index.
However, what is fascinating is that in the Value index, there are still some very profitable companies and in the Growth index, there are still some unprofitable companies. In other words, the Value/Growth dichotomy is very different from the High Quality/Low Quality one. The market could therefore be split not into two indices (Value and Growth) but into four:
High-Quality Value
High-Quality Growth
Low-Quality Value
Low-Quality Growth
Historically, High-Quality Value has outperformed High-Quality Growth
Using academic data, it is possible to splice US equity markets since the 60s into groups by fundamental data. In Figure 3, we focus every year on the 20% of the universe with the highest operating profitability (that is, High Quality in Figure 3). That group is then split into five further quintiles depending on their valuations (using price to book (P/B) as a metric) from the cheapest to the most expensive.
We observe that picking profitable companies with high P/B would have outperformed the market since the 60s but would have underperformed profitable companies in general. On the contrary, picking cheaper High-Quality companies would have outperformed both the market and the overall High-Quality grouping. In other words, Quality Value has outperformed Quality Growth over the last 60 years in US equity markets. Looking at other geographies, such as Europe, we find similar results.
At WisdomTree, we believe that a well-constructed Quality strategy can be the cornerstone of an equity portfolio.High-Quality companies exhibit an ‘all-weather’ behaviour that offers a balance between building wealth over the long term whilst protecting the portfolio during economic downturns. However, in 2022, secondary tilts were incredibly important. Value stocks benefitted from central banks’ hawkishness, leaning on their low implied duration to deliver outstanding performance in a particularly hard year for equities. Among Quality-focused strategies, the one with Value tilt delivered outperformance on average, and the one with Growth tilt tended to underperform.
Looking forward to 2023, recession risk continues to hang over the market like the sword of Damocles. While inflation has shown signs of easing, we expect central banks to remain hawkish around the globe as inflation is still very meaningfully above targets. The recent coordinated communication plan by Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee members is a further example of this continued hawkishness. With markets facing many of the same issues in 2023 that they faced in the second half of 2022, it looks like resilient investments that tilt to Quality and Value that have done particularly well in 2022 could continue to benefit.
Sources
1 Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. From 31 January 2013 to 31 January 2023. Growth is proxied by the MSCI World Growth net TR Index. Value is proxied by the MSCI World Value net TR Index. Quality is proxied by MSCI World Quality net TR Index. The remaining 4 factors (Min Vol, High Dividend Small Cap and Momentum) are also proxied by indices in the MSCI families.
Google earnings todayGOOG Q4 earnings are today, 2/2 at 4:15pm. Alphabet Cl C (GOOG) reported Q3 September 2022 earnings of $1.06 per share on revenue of $69.09 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $1.26 per share on revenue of $70.64 billion. Revenue grew 6.1% on a year-over-year basis. Here's a GOOG 1 week chart with the past 8 earnings reports PE, EPS, revenue, cash & debt data indicators. Plus 2/3, 2/17 and 3/17 expiry options data.
Q4 December 2022 Consensus:
EPS = $1.19
Revenue = $76.48B
P/E = 21.7
Q3 September 2022:
EPS = 1.06 miss -16.01%
Revenue = $69.09B miss -2.20%
Cash = $21.98B
Debt = $26.63B
Q2 June 2022:
EPS = 1.21 miss -6.05%
Revenue = $69.68B miss -0.16%
Cash = $17.94B
Debt = $26.43B
Q1 March 2022:
EPS =1.23 miss -3.67%
Revenue = $68.01B beat 0.18%
Cash = $20.89B
Debt = $26.25B
2/3/23 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 17,149
Call Volume Total 30,081
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.57
Put Open Interest Total 50,820
Call Open Interest Total 54,156
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.94
2/17/23 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 5,472
Call Volume Total 19,575
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.28
Put Open Interest Total 96,153
Call Open Interest Total 104,606
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.92
3/17/23 expiry options data
Put Volume Total 4,332
Call Volume Total 14,527
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.30
Put Open Interest Total 156,883
Call Open Interest Total 224,859
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.70
📉 Stoch Markets: Is the worst really over? 🚀⁉️📝 I will try to analyze the market as a whole, with reference to the Russell 3000 index , which is broader than the S&P 500 .
(Russell 3000 is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S. stock market. It measures the performance of the 3,000 largest publicly held companies incorporated in America as measured by total market capitalization, and represents approximately 97% of the American public equity market).
📈 On the top chart we have the Russell 3000 .
📉 On the bottom chart, we have the Russell 2000 Growth divided by the Russell 2000 Value .
(The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index).
The intention here is to see how the companies classified in the 'Growth Investing' category are performing, using the 'Value Investing' companies as a parameter.
🤔 As a rule, it is to be expected that when traders and investors are more prone to risk, they invest more money in 'growth investing' companies than in 'value investing' companies.
1) Analyzing divergences
1.1) 2006-2008
In the period from 2006 to 2008 we had a divergence: the Russell 3000 had lower funds, while the Growth companies had higher funds. The apex was found precisely in the blue diagonal channel, on 12/30/2008. Note that Russell's bottom was only found on 03/10/2009, 3 months later. There is a clear anticipation in the contribution of 'Growth' companies.
1.2) 2014-2016
Russell tests the support of the green line several times, the last one being on 02/11/2016.
Meanwhile, Growth companies remain on the rise, however reaching the blue diagonal channel again on 02/02/2017, 1 year later.
In this case there was an outflow of 'Growth' companies, at least until reaching the blue diagonal channel. After that the increase continues.
1.3) 2018-2020
In this period we have a classic book divergence.
The Russell peaks downwards on 21/12/2018, and later on 23/03/2020, featuring lower bottoms.
Meanwhile, 'Growth' companies continue to 'respect' the green close with ever higher funds, reaching a low peak on the same date.
1.4) 2022-?
Considering the bad macro-economic scenario, with the high cost of money and inflation, it would be surprising that the 'Growth' companies had a better performance than the 'Value' ones. Despite this pessimistic bias, if this indicator breaks above this green diagonal line and stays there, I will reconsider this opinion. If not, I think it is more likely that it will hit the blue diagonal channel again to form the final divergence.
🟢 For comparison purposes, considering a more global aspect and not just the small companies of the Russell 2000, the same analysis could be done on the ratio between the RAG and RAV indices (Russel 3000 Growth/Russel 3000 Value):
2006-2008
2014-2016
2018-2020
2022-?
🔵 What's important to note is that these key moments happened in December and March.
GBPCHF - The Buyout, Accumulation.I've decided to go for the long term trade. One I categorize as blockbuster . Potential chance to receive a massive reward in ratio to a loss.
- Here's my reason
With GBP falling treacherously an influx are buyers pusher it back on. Meaning two things. One: An exit of sellers ( Less people selling the pair) Two: An abrupt of buyers getting in a record low prices.
Now within this parallel channel we see the opportunity where resistance is holding, buyers are interested.
Potential good trade of LINKThe FRS event 2 days ago made traders community more positive.
All my attention with BTC, but some of the altcoins like LTC, BNB, XRP made holders big profit.
In case of next flat period with BTC, I expect growing of LINK.
Why It will happen?
Moving of BTC price needs a high liquidity. Market does not involve new traders. No liquidity = no growing.
Long period of accumulation (6 months)
I expect the moving of liquidity from BNB and LTC to next altcoins.
Do not forget about money management.
SOL positioned for breakout! (mobile phone releasing early 2023)Right shoulder is above the head and is primed to move through that ascending channel into a range of $26 USD. Don't be surprised if we achieve that before midnight Sunday. Be enthused when you see it back at the $30 USD mark. Sell pressure has waned for a reason. Fundamentals are out, Solana Mobile is releasing the worlds first and only crypto phone & every SOL based project is making a push to be in the dApp store. The major caveat being the SEED Vault.
A SEED is like having a phone in a phone. Your passwords & seed phrases are essentially air gapped. No one can access your SEED Phrase. No malicious third party can use an ad network too violate permissions. Thus making the phone & your Solana Quantum proof.
This isn't an ad, i'm not sponsored... i own a developer test kit model so i could beta test GRIZZLY HACK-A-THON projects. For the past two weeks it's given me overwhelming confidence to UP UP UP my SOL bags. No other chain has a 512 GB phone or a Quantum seed vault. Holding Solana is like holding Tesla stock pre-split. The business venture is backed by Google & Android.
EoY prediction for SOL:
$1355 USD is what i have personally set targets for on a per unit basis. No price prediction target forecast genuinely factors in the Solana Mobile venture.
The phone is ideal for .... "Blockchain Gaming", "Solana Pay", & NFT/credential storage
An analysis of the total Blockchain-wise NFT sales volume over the last 30 days would reveal that Solana is at the second position. Recently, Solana Ventures and the Solana Foundation formed a $100-million fund to help support the growth of NFT, blockchain gaming, and DeFi projects in South Korea.
The blockchain registered a month-on-month increase of over 18%. Ethereum, on the other hand, saw a decline of 23.75% during this timeframe. The recent spike in these NFT volumes ultimately renders SOL to be more useful while revealing the underlying growth of its NFT projects.Also, Meta's intentions to include Solana-based NFTs on Instagram reignites recovery hopes for the token.
USD 15.54 Billion
The global Non-Fungible Token (NFT) market size was USD 15.54 Billion in 2021 and is expected to register a revenue CAGR of 34.2% during the forecast period. In 2021 North America was attributed to 52.8% of global volume.
DYOR | Not financial Advice
Bitcoin longterm chartI thought it was time to make a longterm chart, with all these wrong charts going around, hehe.
They are wrong because bitcoins support and resistance lines are NOT linear in the logarithmic chart.
I think that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot just continue to grow exponentially. This would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025.
I am a bitcoin longterm bull, but one has to remain realistic.
The cause of these growth cycles are the halvings, which lead to a supply shock with a subsequent rally. Every time.
These are all guesstimates of course, but I think this chart is realistic.
The very longterm goal of BTC, in 2030+, is at around 1 million USD imho. It won't go much higher afterwards, it can be seen as the final asymptotic price.
The next peaks should be at around 100k in 2022, and around 300k in 2026.
I hope this chart helps people understand the longterm growth dynamics of BTC :)
Bitcoin Ordinals: a new era for nfts or just a passing trend?Bitcoin NFTs are all the rage right now because of the launch and huge success of the "Ordinals" protocol. Ordinals provide a new way to create NFTs on the Bitcoin blockchain. The latest increase in Bitcoin resources is due to the launch of the CryptoPunks (Ethereum-based NFT) collection equivalent to Bitcoin. Although all the hype is meeting with mixed reactions from the web3 community. So what are Bitcoin ordinals?
What are NFT ordinals?
On January 21, software engineer Casey Rodarmor launched the Ordinals protocol on Bitcoin's blockchain. Each Bitcoin can be divided into 100,000,000 units called "sats" (short for Satoshi). This new protocol allows users and builders to inscribe each "sat" with data, known as ordinals. This data can also be smart contracts and then NFTs can be minted on them. In essence, the Ordinal protocol allows builders to create NFTs on the Bitcoin blockchain.
Furthermore, one of the key distinctions between Ethereum-based NFTs and Bitcoin is that Ethereum NFTs usually point to off-chain data on the IPFS system. With this protocol, all data is inscribed directly on-chain. "An Ordinal is meant to reflect what NFTs should be, sometimes are, and what inscriptions always are, by their very nature," Rodarmor says. This new ecosystem could benefit the NFT industry in general by enhancing the very concept of digital collectibles. In addition, because of the entirely on-chain data enrollment for Ordinals, Rodarmor refers to them as something beyond NFTs, calling them Digital Artifacts.
How do Bitcoin Punks change the game?
February 8th was just another day in the web3/nft space, until a Twitter profile with a dozen or so followers and a discord server with just 20 members appeared on the scene.
To make the BTC Punks website, the team of developers checked the hash of every image uploaded to Ordinals and compared it against the original 10k punk images. The links to Bitcoin Punks are the first-seen inscriptions (lowest ID) that contain these hashes on Ordinals. After a few hours, everything changed, and the storm of bitcoin punks began. The fomo spread quickly on Twitter and among the various discords, with a real onslaught of inscriptions of these punks, even slowing down the bitcoin network.
In many ways, Bitcoin Punks mean a new wave of NFT bitcoin, digital collectibles, and marketplaces. Bitcoin Punks are the first byte-perfect uploads of the original Ethereum CryptoPunks onto the Bitcoin Blockchain using Ordinals. The entire 10K collection minted out in less than 24hrs, with one Punk (#620) sold for 9.6 BTC (~$214,766.50). However, one of the problems with the project at the moment is that there is simply no market to buy and sell the cryptocurrency once minted. But this, of course, does not prevent the Web3 community from buying and selling the digital pieces.
So far more than 80k ordinals have been inscribed on Bitcoin's blockchain. There has also been a backlash against the entire protocol from Bitcoin maximalists. According to them, the whole idea of Bitcoin NFT is against Bitcoin as a financial resource. Some even argue that Ordinals are just a waste of network space compatible with Bitcoin.
How to actually purchase ordinals?
To purchase an NFT Ordinal , one must first download a Bitcoin-compatible wallet. I've been using a Sparrow since the beginning of this new "meta". Once done, the user must then follow a detailed guide from GitHub to make the BTC wallet compatible with Ordinals. Next, the user must run their Bitcoin node and inscribe an ordinal (which would not be possible with bitcoin punks now since the project has been minted). Then there are two other options available for people to purchase a BTC Ordinal NFT.
Using Emblem Vault and buy ordinals on OpenSea, with ethereum. Emblem Vault is a tokenized multi-asset wallet on the Ethereum blockchain that can contain one or more tokens or NFTs. You can use Emblem Vault to trade portfolios of NFTs and cryptocurrencies, including assets from different chains, as a single token. Most of the nfts collectors are using Emblem to buy and trade NFTs on Bitcoin.
The other easy way is to find ordinal owners and purchase it from them directly (OTC). Owners can be found on Discord servers. Browsing the link-your-project channel on their discord allows users to explore what Bitcoin projects are out there. This is, of course, a huge risk for potential customers, as the sites and discords could be total rugs. Also, unless there is trust between buyers and sellers of the project, it can lead to scams and fraud. In addition, BTC ordinals can take hours or even days to appear in your BTC wallet.
Create an Inscriptions.
Moving on, if you want to create/register an Ordinal yourself, there are services out there that allow this. The services allow users to register them without actually running a node. For example, the popular Bitcoin project Satoshibles has created an OrdinalsBot, which allows users to inscribe NFTs into their Bitcoin wallets. I personally used OrdinalsBot to inscribe Bitcoin Punks during the first day of "mint".
UBIX is a Silent bomb! This is why:The collaboration with the Acceleration Group: Surveillance footage notarized by silent notary (build on the Ubix network) is a huge accomplishment!
The Acceleration Group is far from a small company if you know what it is.... Just insane!
Also the collaboration with Langia, just amazing...!
The REAL USE CASE the Ubix Network Team is providing is just stunning!
People, UBX is/was hidden for a reason. I have no doubt this protocol is going to explode in the near future. It provides an actual real life use cases on global scale... And will provide much more in the future.
The growth of the protocol is from self speaking. USE CASE + USE CASE + USE CASE + GLOBE = ECONOMIC GROWTH TREMENDOUSLY!
Fundamental UBIX passes the test!
Mind blowing!
WSC - WillScot Mobile Mini HoldingsSimple base breakout accompanied by a surge in volume, albeit not a massive surge. Would like to see continued volume surges to get a cushion to allow for a hold thru earnings on 2/21.
Great growth numbers, earnings & sales accelerating at a strong pace on a YoY & QoQ basis.
AMZN - Victim Of Its Own SuccessAmazon, Inc. What's wrong with that title? It's not quite the official name of the company. The company colloquially referred to as "Amazon" by anybody and everybody from my Grandfather to teenage girls at my high school, both looking to shamelessly devolve into consumerism from the nearest smartphone or web browser, has an undeniable grip on the modern world. The correct name for AMZN, as it's listed on the NASDAQ, is Amazon.com, Inc. This title, a remnant of its dotcom era IPO, indirectly serves today to remind investors of Amazon.com, Inc's massively profitable cloud computing division, which operates completely separately from its retail division, and which pushed its common stock to almost a 1.7 Trillion dollar valuation at the end of 2021.
It's hard to say anything bad about Amazon.com, Inc's cloud computing business. Its market share is larger than Google and Microsoft's share combined in the same industry (Q3 2022 Data according to Statista). Big names like Netflix, Facebook, and Twitter use their services. Their service quality is high and has data centers around the globe. Its growing extremely fast.
The Catch: Current macroeconomic headwinds are causing many businesses to cut back spending, and AWS is seeing this effect their bottom line. AWS still grew 20% year over year in Q4, but short of the expected 27.5%. This moderate slowing in its massive growth might be normally acceptable by investors to some degree.
Except, it's not. AMZN trades at a sky-high PE of 68; After already losing more than 700 Million dollars in market cap since its peak in 2021. This ratio relies heavily on aggressive growth models for the company.
AMZN's PE ratio has always been this way. Overzealous investors have been willing to pay this premium to get ahead of the massive profits AWS consistently posted. In many tech companies, excessive growth valuations have often been justified by certain rock solid keystone statistics (think: META's daily user count). Yet, growth is in practice finite, and a peak in these statistics forces multiples return to earth. The current market conditions and complex nature of the cloud computing industry could make the peak more difficult for investors to identify, but barring explosive cloud growth in future quarters, the multiple normalization process will take place.
Disclaimer
The information and publications here are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations. Conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Small Cap Growth (VBK) - Time to consider?The VBK small cap growth ETF is showing 305 price target on Stockcharts.com P&F, which would be 32% above Friday 2/3 close.
On the monthly Chart (not shown) VBK has posted a .618 retrace from 3/20 the low to the 11/21 high; .382 resistance is the next level on the monthly is 236.68.
On the daily chart (not shown), we have a 21/50 EMA daily crossover, but the 50 day EMA is still well below the 200 day EMA. The money flow index on the daily has been tailing off since 1/17 while riding an over bought RSI(9) since 1/17.
The weekly chart (shown above) shows VBK entering into Ichimoku cloud resistance, and a weekly resistance at a Gann confluence at 238.63. The latest up leg from 10.10 looks extended (blue Point D is near 1.61). The positive is that the VBK has soundly rejected the downward regression channel from 2022 high to low.
Small caps have in general less pricing power than the large caps(unless they hold a special niche). Passing on price increases to compensate for higher input costs can be more difficult. Easing inflation will benefit small caps, but tight labor market does not.
I do not see a 305 target on VBK anytime in the near future. I also do not see (unless there is a Swan event) lower lows. I do see sideways action inside the red cloud for the near future. Small cap growth is not for me unless I find one of those niche situations with superb financials.
AMZN earnings todayAMZN Q4 earnings are today, 2/2 at 4pm. Amazon (AMZN) reported Q3 September 2022 earnings of $0.28 per share on revenue of $127.1 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.22 per share on revenue of $126.4 billion. Revenue grew 14.7% on a year-over-year basis. The company said it expects Q4 revenue of $140 billion to $148 billion. Here's an AMZN 1 week chart with the past 8 earnings reports PE, EPS, revenue, cash & debt data indicators. Plus 2/3, 2/17 and 3/17 expiry options data.
Q4 December 2022 Consensus:
EPS = 0.15
Revenue = $145.40B
P/E = 96.5
Q3 September 2022:
EPS = 0.28 beat +35.53%
Revenue = $127.10B miss -0.29%
Cash = $35.17B
Debt = $128.25B
Q2 June 2022:
EPS = -0.20 miss -270.72%
Revenue = $121.23B beat 1.76%
Cash = $37.7B
Debt = $124.577B
Q1 March 2022:
EPS = -0.38 miss -190.58%
Revenue = $116.44B miss -0.53%
Cash = $36.6B
Debt = $113.287B
Q4 December 2022:
EPS = 1.39 beat +657.12%
Revenue = $137.41B miss -0.13%
Cash = $36.48B
Debt = $116.395B
2/3/23 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 91,854
Call Volume Total 141,512
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.65
Put Open Interest Total 232,469
Call Open Interest Total 286,708
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.81
2/17/23 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 35,737
Call Volume Total 130,457
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.27
Put Open Interest Total 368,246
Call Open Interest Total 646,114
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.57
3/17/23 expiry options data
Put Volume Total 20,571
Call Volume Total 55,465
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.37
Put Open Interest Total 402,933
Call Open Interest Total 659,330
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.61