GOLD (XAUUSD) ATH Ahead! What is Next 🏆
What a bullish week for Gold.
The market closed approaching the ALL TIME HIGH!
Here is your plan for next week.
Bullish scenario:
if the price breaks and closes above 2074 on a weekly,
it will confirm the strength of the bulls one more time.
A bullish rally will push the prices to 2200 then.
Bearish scenario:
The market may drop from ATH as it happened 2 times in the past already.
Your bearish confirmation will be a bearish breakout of a support of a rising
channel on a daily. It will drop the prices at least to 2010.
Current geopolitical and macroeconomic situation strongly support a bullish scenario.
BUT I always say that it is safer to wait for a confirmation.
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Goldsignal
GOLD (XAUUSD): Technical Outlook & Important Decision Ahead 🥇
Here is my detailed analysis for Gold.
As you can see, the market is trading in a strong bullish trend.
The price is steadily growing within a rising parallel channel.
After the price reached its resistance, it started to consolidate within
a narrow horizontal range on a 4H.
We are expecting a PMI report and Powell speech later on today.
Depending on the news, I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish scenario.
Bullish breakout of the resistance of the range - 4H candle close above
may signify the strength of the buyers.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated to 2060 then.
Bearish scenario.
The price may respect the resistance of the range and drop from that,
extending the consolidation. Monitor the reaction of the price to that,
and wait for a bearish pattern to sell.
I would suggest strictly waiting for the news first.
I will post the update then.
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🥇Gold Roadmap🥇⏰(15-minute time frame)⏰🏃♂️Gold has been moving in an Ascending channel for several weeks .
🏃♂️Gold is currently near 🔴 Heavy Resistance zone($2,075.20.40_$2,035.20)🔴 and 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡.
🌊According to Elliott's wave theory , Gold seems to be completing the main wave 3 .
🔔I expect the main wave 3 in 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡to end and Gold to start falling again to the lower line of the ascending channel.
❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️ : The structure of microwave 4 from the main wave 3 can have different structures .
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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GOLD (XAUUSD) Overbought Market & Pullback 🥇
As I predicted, Gold bounced earlier this week.
Analyzing the price action now, we can see that the market became quite overbought:
the price formed a double top pattern with a lower high and violated its neckline.
We may anticipate a correctional movement now.
Goals: 2031 / 2024
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XAUUSD - Gold prices continue to increase sharplyWorld gold prices stabilized with spot gold increasing by 2.2 USD to 2,042.7 USD/ounce. February gold futures last traded at 2,065.2 USD/ounce, up 5 USD compared to yesterday morning.
The yellow metal was mildly volatile and had little reaction after the latest report showed the strength of the US economy in the third quarter. Specifically, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, US GDP in the third quarter increased by 5.2%, up from the estimate of 4.9%.
Stronger GDP data boosted the USD and put slight pressure on gold in mid-week trading. However, expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates in the first half of next year continue to keep bullion near a 7-month high.
Additionally, gold will still benefit from safe-haven demand due to concerns related to geopolitical tensions. Given those factors, SocGen analysts see a push above $2,000 as the start of a larger recovery that could keep gold prices at around $2,200 an ounce in 2024.
XAUUSD - Will gold continue to rise, strategy to buy GoldWorld gold prices increased slightly this morning with spot gold increasing by 2.5 USD to 1,992.1 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 1,993.3 USD/ounce, up 0.5 USD compared to yesterday morning.
World gold prices in the evening session of November 23 (Vietnam time) were stable during the Thanksgiving holiday. Analysts do not expect to see many price increases for the rest of the week as most traders are currently focused on this holiday and the "Black Friday" shopping festival.
Entering the holiday season, the gold market could not maintain a new increase above 2,000 USD/ounce as the market continued to monitor the minutes of the latest policy meeting from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Although the central bank left interest rates unchanged in its latest meeting, the minutes showed the committee was maintaining a hawkish stance as it expected to keep interest rates restrained for the foreseeable future.
Since late last week, gold has been strongly supported as expectations that the Fed has completed its interest rate hike cycle have been increasing after a series of published reports showing cooling inflation. Wednesday's hawkish Fed minutes and Wednesday's strong labor market data made investors hesitant to predict the Fed's next monetary policy move. Rising expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates “higher for longer” and a decline in the likelihood that it will begin cutting rates in the first half of 2024 have limited gold's gains.
Despite this, some experts still maintain optimism that gold prices will eventually move higher as seasonal factors could play a larger role in price action and be positive for gold.
Xauusd:2008 strong resistance
Key indicators of changes in market sentiment on Wednesday also included a report of a decline in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits, which hit a five-week low of 209,000 (lower than the expected 225,000), indicating a tightening labor market.In addition, the University of Michigan's inflation expectations report is even worse. The report emphasizes that consumers expect the inflation rate to be about 3.2% in the next five years, and U.S. consumers still believe that the inflation outlook is higher.This forecast is closely watched because it may affect the Fed's interest rate decision and reflects people's continued concerns about inflation if expectations continue to be high.On Thursday and Friday, Thanksgiving Day in the United States, the US market will be closed early
Gold reached its highest level in 2006 yesterday, and has not broken through 2008 for 4 consecutive times, so it can be judged that the resistance here in 2008 is very strong.
As can be seen from the chart, the volatility range of gold is getting smaller and smaller
A series of economic data released yesterday is the Lido dollar index. The US index has risen from 103 to 104.2. It is possible to reach the bottom. As a reverse indicator of gold, it is not conducive to the continued rise of gold.
So as long as gold rebounds above 2000, you can still choose to sell. You need to observe the support strength of 1985-1987 and strictly do a good stop loss, so that your success rate will be greatly increased.
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Gold Route Map UPDATEHey Everyone,
Yesterday we had price retrace down into support structure and we said we were expecting a reaction on this zone for a bounce for over 60 pips.
- This played out perfectly for the bounce
Price will now bounce between the range 1989 and 2003.
A retest at 2003 followed with a cross and lock will open the range above.
A cross and lock below 1989 will open 1978 and a cross and lock below 1978 will confirm further movement down.
Our levels are still valid to track and trade the movement up and down.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we share every week for the past 18 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGETS
1978 - DONE
1989 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 1989 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2003 - DONE
2018
BEARISH TARGETS
1978 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 1978 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
1965 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 1965 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
1935
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
XAUUSD - On Bank Holiday, gold tends sidewaysWorld gold prices this morning decreased slightly with spot gold down 8.1 USD to 1,989.6 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 1,991.8 USD/ounce, down 9.8 USD compared to yesterday morning.
The precious metals market in the trading session before the Thanksgiving holiday was under slight selling pressure when the latest report showed a surprise improvement in the US labor market. According to a report by the US Department of Labor, weekly applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 24,000 to 209,000 in the week ending November 18, down from the previous week's upwardly revised estimate of 233,000 applications. The latest labor market data was much better than expected as experts estimated 225,000 applications.
After the report, the dollar recovered from its lowest level and Treasury yields pared earlier losses, pushing gold off the key psychological threshold of $2,000 an ounce.
The US Dollar Index has risen to a daily high and that is limiting some gold buying demand, said senior analyst Jim Wyckoff at Kitco Metals.
However, experts say that gold's decline has been limited by recent expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has ended its interest rate hike cycle. Lower interest rates typically boost gold prices because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Previously, gold bars reached a 2-week high of 2,007.29 USD/ounce.
XAUUSD - When the uptrend ends, Gold declines againGold price today (November 22), world gold increased sharply compared to the previous session's close, approaching the 2,000 USD/ounce mark. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has released the minutes of its November monetary policy meeting, causing investors to buy gold when forecasting slow economic growth.
The Fed also said that economic growth slowed in other business sectors, so the Fed expects economic growth in the fourth quarter to "slow markedly" as third quarter gross domestic product increased by 4.9%. The Fed believes that risks to overall economic growth may be tilted to the downside, while risks to inflation are tilted to the upside. Current interest rate policy is restrictive and is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation.
However, inflation is still much higher than the target level, experts say it is likely that the Fed will maintain interest rates at the current level for a while until inflation clearly declines in a sustainable way. “The FOMC minutes were cautiously hawkish,” said BMO Capital Markets strategist.
Low sales in both the retail and housing sectors show that people are tightening their spending. The Fed also stated that economic growth will slow down in the fourth quarter of 2023, which is the reason why investors fear increased risks and boost gold purchases.
Xauusd:Will it break through 2000?
The annualization of the total number of new housing starts in the United States and the total number of construction permits announced on Friday have shown a strong rebound. We all know the stimulating effect of real estate on economic growth. The continued rise in real estate data will also push up the prices of raw materials, home improvement appliances and other commodities, which will make the US inflation data appear resilient to stop falling.
On this point, Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsbee (2023 FOMC Voting Committee) pointed out in his speech: the housing price sub-item in the inflation data is a key indicator.
But gold did not break through the key point of 1995
Because it's still an upward trend, you can still wait for key support points to buy
Observe the resistance of 1995
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XAUUSD - Gold rebounded due to the Fund, is it possible to sell?On the night of November 20, today's spot gold price on the world market stood around 1,973 USD/ounce. Gold delivered in December on the Comex New York floor was at 1982 USD/ounce.
The world gold price on the night of November 20 was about 8.2% higher (149 USD/ounce) compared to the beginning of 2023.
World gold tends to continue last week's increase after inflation in the US cooled down. It is likely that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon reverse monetary policy and reduce interest rates.
This week, the Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. Market signals show that the Fed will almost certainly keep interest rates unchanged at its December policy meeting and will likely maintain it at 5.25% - 5.5% until June next year.
The USD on the world market decreased quite quickly. The DXY index - measuring the fluctuations of the greenback against a basket of 6 major currencies, dropped sharply from 104.1 points at the end of last week to 103.6 points at the beginning of the trading session on November 20 on the US market.
Gold Idea - XAUUSDOANDA:XAUUSD SAXO:XAUUSD Gold vs US Dollar
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⚠️ Disclaimer: The viewpoints shared represent my individual outlook on the market, based on publicly accessible information and historical data. While a portion of these opinions is influenced by my actual trades, others are not. It's important to note that I am not a financial advisor, and I do not assume any responsibility for the decisions you make in your trading activities.
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DXY keeps falling on recent news, Gold continues to riseWorld gold prices rose as the code hit a 2-week high as expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates in the spring increased.
World gold prices increased sharply this morning with spot gold increasing by 21.6 USD to 1,980.8 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 1,987.3 USD/ounce, up 23 USD compared to yesterday morning.
Gold prices soared to a 2-week high as they were boosted by falling US Treasury bond yields amid the prospect that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has completed its cycle of raising interest rates and will carry out interest rate cuts next spring increasingly.
Ole Hansen, commodity strategist at Saxo Bank, said that gold will maintain its recent strong gains as long as prices hold above $1,930 an ounce. He said the prospect of lower interest rates and demand from central banks will be strong enough support factors for gold to withstand any short-term strength from economic data.
Data on Wednesday showed US producer prices fell the most in 3.5 years in October, the latest sign that inflation pressures are easing, while retail sales fell for the first time. after 7 months. Previously on Tuesday, data showed that US pepper prices were unchanged compared to the level recorded in October.
GOLD - Gold trading strategy on November 16World gold prices increased today (November 16), but conflicting US inflation data is increasing volatility and risk for precious metal investors.
Traders' and investors' attitudes were more optimistic midweek following reports that the US consumer price index for October increased 3.2% year-on-year. CPI is forecast to increase 3.3% year-on-year, compared to a 3.7% increase in the September report. October PPI fell 0.5% from September compared to expectations of a 0.0% increase. 1% during this period. CPI and PPI data met the expectations of those who wanted to see the Federal Reserve pause its interest rate tightening cycle. Now, many Fed market observers believe that the US central bank will continue to pause interest rate increases in the coming months.
US stock indexes were higher and at multi-week highs in midday trading, following sharp gains posted on Tuesday.
XAUUSD - After the PPI news, will gold fall?Continuing to accelerate from the previous session, the DXY index (the movement of the greenback compared to the balance of 6 major currencies) decreased sharply from 104.8 points to 104.1 points in the first trading session on the market.
The USD fell after US inflation was unexpectedly lower than forecast, reinforcing confidence that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates.
Specifically, US generation in October did not change compared to the previous month. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.2% compared to 2022 and remained unchanged compared to September. Previously, economists consulting the Dow Jones survey predicted that this month's CPI would increase by 0.1 % compared to September.
This information gives hope that prices are easing pressure on the US economy. Investors believe interest rates have gained value.
Life on US Treasury bonds has also fallen sharply. Yields on 10-year notes fell to just over 4.4%, thus rebounding above 5% at the end of October.
Gold prices increased while countries still strongly imported gold and increased their reserves of this precious metal.
XAUUSD - Soared when the USD suddenly plummetedThe world's gold price today (November 15) soared when the US announced that the October consumer price index fell lower than forecast. The sudden drop in the USD helped investors return to buying gold when deposit and transaction costs decreased.
World gold prices continued to skyrocket this morning due to the USD suddenly plummeting. Specifically, the Dollar-Index - measuring the strength of the USD in a basket of 6 major currencies - dropped sharply by 1.49% to 104,060 points at 6:20 a.m. this morning (Hanoi time).
The USD fell sharply after the US announced the consumer price index (CPI) for October was lower than expected. Specifically, the CPI in the US in October increased by 3.2% over the same period last year, a sharper decrease than September's increase of 3.7% and lower than the forecast of 3.3%. This is the lowest level since March 2021.
The core CPI index in October in the US increased by 4% over the same period last year, lower than the 4.1% increase in September and the previous forecast. Experts say that a decrease in the CPI consumer price index will help The US Federal Reserve (Fed) cannot raise interest rates further at its upcoming December meeting.
Because the Fed's prediction that it will not raise interest rates any further has pushed the USD down, gold prices have benefited as a result. Because gold transaction and custody costs will decrease.
However, experts also warn investors to be cautious, because inflation has decreased but is still far from the target level of 2%. Previously, the Fed Chairman gave the message that the Fed will do everything to reduce inflation to the target level. Therefore, gold prices may still be under pressure if the Fed raises interest rates one more time.
XAUUSD - PPI today news trading strategyYesterday, the market received information about US inflation data, which more or less affected gold prices. Specifically, the US consumer price index remained unchanged in October and core inflation showed signs of slowing down. CPI increased by 3.2% compared to the same period last year. This level in September was 3.7%.
Accordingly, after the inflation report was published, the market predicted a 100% possibility that the US Central Bank would keep interest rates unchanged in December compared to 86% before the inflation report. Weaker-than-expected US consumer inflation data caused the USD and Treasury bond yields to fall, thereby helping gold prices recover.
Experts say that CPI data was significantly weaker than expected, which is quite supportive for precious metals. But at the same time, he believes that gold may drop another 4% back to 1,900 USD/ounce in the near future when it no longer benefits from the safe haven channel, due to concerns related to the Israel-Hamas conflict. This expert predicts that the average price in 2024 will be 1,883 USD/ounce and increase to an average of 1,918 USD/ounce in 2025.
XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
XAUUSD- Intraday trading strategy before CPI news on November 14Gold prices today (November 14) in the world rebounded right before the US announced the October consumer price index today. The falling USD has supported the increase in gold prices.
World gold prices continued to increase this morning because the falling USD supported the increase in gold prices as transaction and custody costs decreased. Specifically, the Dollar-Index - measuring the strength of the USD in a basket of 6 major currencies, decreased by 0.19% to 105,660 points at 6:30 a.m. this morning (Hanoi time).
The USD fell before the US announced the consumer price index (CPI) for October today, October 14. It is forecast that the CPI in the US will increase by 3.7% over the same period last year, equal to the increase in September.
Previously, the US released the October employment report with non-farm payrolls only creating 150,000 jobs, much lower than the 180,000 jobs forecast and far ahead of the 297,000 jobs created in September. The unemployment rate also increased from 3.8% in August to 3.9% in October.
Experts say that poor employment data in the US and a stable CPI may help the US Federal Reserve (Fed) not be able to increase interest rates as previously forecast to ensure market stability. job school.
Gold is still in the bearish channel, so choose a suitable entry to enter the order while waiting for news
Continuing the downward price channel, how far will Gold fall?World gold prices this morning tended to increase with spot gold increasing by 1.2 USD compared to last week's closing level to 1,939 USD/ounce.
Last week, the gold market witnessed its second consecutive week of decline due to weak safe-haven demand while US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell took a hawkish stance on monetary policy.
According to City Index market analyst Fawad Razaqzada, Mr. Powell's hawkish stance was the main reason why gold prices weakened last week. In addition, investors' risk appetite has improved in the past few weeks as the Israel-Hamas conflict has not made much progress, also reducing demand in the gold market.
Gold bars have lost about 70 USD since reaching over 2,000 USD/ounce thanks to safe-haven demand due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Fed officials, including Mr. Powell, say they are still unsure whether interest rates will be high enough to end the war on inflation, pushing up 10-year Treasury yields and the U.S. index. The Dollar Index rose, thereby making non-interest-bearing gold less attractive to investors.
Continuing the downward trend, can gold create a new bottom?World gold prices this morning reversed to increase slightly with spot gold increasing by 8.4 USD to 1,958.2 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 1,963.5 USD/ounce, up 5.7 USD compared to yesterday morning.
The slight weakening of the USD in the evening trading session of November 9 (Vietnam time) slightly increased the appeal of gold to buyers holding other currencies. Currently, the market is waiting for the speech of the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) for more clues regarding the Fed's future monetary policy roadmap. Along with interest rates, gold's safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions is also gradually drying up, making it difficult for gold to have a sustainable increase over the past week.
Looking at the long term, in a recent study by Capital Economics, experts said that, although geopolitical instability due to the conflict in the Middle East has created some positive fluctuations for the gold market, but prices will eventually move higher as the Fed begins cutting interest rates in 2024. Gold could end the year at $2,100 an ounce.