#GOLD XAUUSD Ending diagonal in formingThe Fed.Res must make it happen soon either way of three : down 0.25, no change or up (which i doubt about)
... unless, the market brakes this harmony of patterns
Goldprediction
Gold Price Analysis September 13Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices maintained modest intraday gains heading into the European session on Friday and are currently hovering near the $2,565-2,570 region, or record highs. A softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report released on Thursday provided further evidence of easing inflation and raised expectations of a larger rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week. This was reinforced by a fresh drop in US Treasury yields, which dragged the US dollar (USD) to its lowest in more than a week and continued to act as a bullish driver for the non-yielding yellow metal.
In addition, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine also provided additional support for safe-haven gold. This, in turn, confirms the overnight breakout through a multi-week trading range and supports the outlook for a short-term bullish move.
Technical Analysis
Profit-taking by some investors at the end of the Asian session pushed the price to 2563 and continued to push it up when the European session entered. Today's scenario is that gold retreats to the 2560 zone and does not break this zone until the middle of the European session, so we can buy back to the target zone of 2574-2580. In the direction of breaking through the 2560 zone, we will not sell retest but wait for the BUY zones of 2555 and 2545. BUY signals can hold TP far away at the present time because gold can completely create ATH in the near future
Price zones to pay attention to according to the scenario: 2555-2545-2560-2575-2580.
9.13 Gold Short-term AnalysisGold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday, hitting a record high of $2,559.98 per ounce and closing at $2,558.54 per ounce, driven by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, after data showed a slowdown in the U.S. economy. In addition, the European Central Bank's rate cut also reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, and geopolitical concerns continue to provide safe-haven buying support for gold prices. Considering the possibility of profit-taking on Friday, we will patiently pay attention to the strength of profit-taking in gold today.
Market expectations have increased that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 17-18 meeting. The probability of a 25 basis point cut is 73%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 27%. This expectation has driven gold's rise because the low interest rate environment makes gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset.
The European Central Bank announced another rate cut on Thursday, lowering the deposit rate to 3.50%. This decision is closely related to the background of weak economic growth and slowing inflation in the eurozone. The ECB's rate cut reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, further enhancing its attractiveness.
In addition to economic data, geopolitical tensions also have an important impact on gold prices. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Moscow may restrict exports of uranium, titanium and nickel in retaliation against Western countries. The statement has raised market concerns about the global supply chain, further boosting safe-haven demand for gold.
SET UP SHORT ON GOLD. Team, Gold current price is 2564.09 PLEASE NOTE: gold are very risky, ensure when you set stop loss, it will tell you how much you are going to lose.
We will wait for 2561.37 to short. Wait until the pullback confirms.
Stop Loss at 2572-76
Target 1 at 2549.77
Target 2 at 2533.65
Please note: Once it hit our first target, take 70% profit and trail your stop loss to BE.
Gold Market Analysis NFP weekGold Market Prediction point of view:
The gold market recently closed both its monthly and weekly candles, showing strong bullish momentum.
On a monthly timeframe, gold remains bullish, especially if it stays above the 2400-2500 level. The key question now is when the market will correct this move. A retracement is expected, which typically happens gradually.
On a weekly timeframe, the market structure remains bullish. However, there is an imbalance between the 2350 and 2465 levels, suggesting that prices could move downward slightly to fill this gap before continuing upward.
On a daily timeframe, gold has broken through its previous resistance levels, filling its daily imbalance at 2470. Key levels to watch are 2475-2485 for further bullish movement, with potential downside targets around 2415 if a correction occurs.
On a 4-hour timeframe, the market is currently moving sideways, and key levels to monitor are around 2530 for potential breakouts or retracements. The price could test higher levels like 2550-2560 if it breaks 2530, but if it fails, it might retrace to lower levels.
Fundamental factors: Upcoming data releases, such as ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP employment, and NFP, could significantly influence market movements.
Gold important levels and areas are marked on chart so trade accordingly dont be trapped.
In summary, the gold market is currently in a strong bullish trend, but careful attention should be paid to key levels and upcoming economic data that could impact its movement.
9.13Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsLast night, inflation data fell beyond expectations, while the core inflation monthly rate rebounded slightly to 0.3%. Gold plummeted to around $2,500 after the $2,529 data in the Asia-Europe session.
This week's market, as long as you follow it after seeing it, you will basically be slapped in the face. On Monday, I saw the decline from $2,500 to $2,485 before I rebounded and went short. Then on Tuesday, I saw the decline from 2,507 to 2,500 in the early trading and rebounded and went short. On Wednesday, I saw the Asia-Europe session continue to rise to $2,529 and started to sing a new high. All of these were "counter-killed".
Yesterday, I clearly said that we must prevent fake falls and the sudden counterattack of shorts. Not only will the August CPI be announced, but the price will be close to $2,530. There is no need to do any callback here. Unless it is a rapid plunge, the cost performance is too poor.
From the non-agricultural data to now, both long and short positions have been accurately stepped on, without exception. The non-agricultural data clearly stated that no matter whether the data is good or bad, the rise is an illusion, and the fall is the purpose. On Monday, the market opened directly at 2500 US dollars and shorted. After the decline, it stopped chasing shorts. After the decline, it fell to 2485 US dollars and rebounded to break through 2500. It decisively went long at 2500-01 and left the market at 2515. On Wednesday, the price was near 2505 and emphasized that it was also 2520 to go long at 2500 first. Yesterday, it was directly short at 2523, without considering chasing long near the historical high, and arranged long after the plunge.
Today, I think a large number of people have begun to stand on the side of the shorts, which is just the opposite of yesterday. The plunge in gold prices from 2530 to 2500 after the CPI data and the current rebound are in line with the logic of shorts.
However, I think if it is a continuation of the short position, there will not be such a large rebound. The continuous rebound of 2500, the higher the price seems to be, the greater the probability of digging a pit, especially the rebound from 2510 in the morning as support. Unless it returns to below this position, I will not short today.
Soon, gold will go unilaterally. It has closed the cross K line for three consecutive weeks. The daily BOLL closed at a high level. Now it is waiting for a suitable opportunity to directly break the range, and I am optimistic about the upward breakthrough. The bulls will soon challenge $2,600 this time.
At present, the gold price is constantly rising from the lows of $2472, $2485, and $2500. The first rebound target is $2522-23, followed by $2528-30, and then $2538-40. The recent market should be prepared to get on the bus and wait for the market to start at any time.
Today, gold uses $2,500 as the dividing point and $2,510 as the support area. Go long after the pullback, that is, change from yesterday's short thinking to low long. The rebound after the plunge is too big. This rebound is often not an opportunity to go short, but a slow rise to force shorts.
GOLD 1H AND 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
We totally smashed our 1H and 4H chart ideas today!!!
Eme5 cross and lock above 2517 confirmed 2536 and 2550 on this 4h chart idea, which was completed perfectly. We will now look for ema5b cross and lock above 2550 to open the range above.
Please see our 1H chart idea below;
This chart had ema5 cross and lock above 2523 opening 2534 and 2547, which were both hit perfectly today completing this chart idea.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2517 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2517 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2536 -DONE
POTENTIALLY 2550 - DONE
BEARISH TARGETS
2493 - DONE
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD: Pullback in Short Term?Hi Traders!
Gold prices rose early on Thursday as the dollar weakened ahead of next week's expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cut.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up US$19.70 to US$2,562.10 per ounce. Hopes among gold bulls that the Federal Reserve's policy committee would offer 50 basis point rate cut at the end of its two-day meeting next Wednesday were dashed when data released yesterday showed the August U.S. Consumer Price Index rose by 2.5% down from 2.9% in July.
"Gold dropped back on Wednesday after US inflation data dimmed the prospects for a 50-basis-point cut next week, but underlying strength prevails, with daily higher lows signaling continued appetite from investors," Saxo Bank noted.
The dollar eased early, with the ICE dollar index last seen down 0.08 points to 101.61. Treasury yields were flat, with the yield on the U.S. two-year not unchanged at 3.648%, while the 10-year note was paying 3.658%, also steady.
From a technical point of view, on the daily chart the trend is bullish (but has not yet reached our Target at the moment). That said, once the harmonic structure is completed, we do not exclude an interesting mid-term pullback. What do you think? Please support our idea for future updates.
Thanks for watching
9.12 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsIn the 4-hour period, the stochastic indicator is a dead cross downward, which is a bearish signal; however, the BOLL interval is obvious, forming an interval that has never been broken; in addition, the support bands of 2500-2490-2480-2470 have not all fallen through;
2: In the daily K, the stochastic indicator is in a state of blunt top divergence; bearish signal; the indicator is in a state of bluntness at a high level, waiting for stimulation; in terms of form, the market is resistant to falling, sideways, and since the high break, it is the second wave of rising break; it is expected that there will be a third wave of BOLL upward break upward trend later;
Comprehensive Get up: In terms of thinking, priority is given to the trend thinking; in terms of support, the middle axis support position is near 2495, the lower axis track support is near 2445; the transition support position is near 2470; sideways support, then consider sideways; sideways support position is near 2508 and 2490 in the small range;
War risk aversion is still continuing; therefore, short positions cannot be arranged at present; in terms of form, 2530 is not the peak high point of the form, so it is not recommended to arrange; breakout is handled according to the breakout of 2530/32
Today's focus: the number of initial jobless claims in the United States as of the week of September 7 (10,000 people)
Gold Analysis September 12Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices rose on an overnight rebound from the psychological $2,500 mark and gained some positive momentum on Thursday. Growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its policy easing cycle and lower borrowing costs next week turned out to be a major factor acting as a boost for the non-yielding yellow metal. That said, bearish bets on a larger Fed rate cut at the end of the September 17-18 policy meeting have pushed the US Dollar (USD) closer to its monthly peak and should limit gains for the commodity.
In addition, a generally positive tone around the equity markets is likely to undermine traditional safe-haven assets and deter traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around Gold prices. Furthermore, the recent range-bound price action and repeated failures to find acceptance above the $2,530-2,532 zone or the all-time high reached in August, make it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for further gains. Traders are now looking forward to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for fresh impetus.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices pushed up to 2521 in the late Asian session and as the European session began, prices are being pushed back down. The area of interest is the 2512 zone as prices failed to break through until mid-European session, then BUYing back up to 2528 before the US. Breaking 2528 holds until the 2555.xx peak. In the opposite direction when the 2512 zone is broken, wait for retest to sell to 2500 and 2595. In case gold does not push to 12 but flies away, sell again in the 2528-2530 zone.
SELL 2543 - 2545 Stoploss 2549
BUY 2503 - 2501. Stoploss 2498
BUY 2496 - 2494. Stoploss 249
Gold, what is next, up or down, does anyone know?)After my last post on GOLD the price nearly hit my target at the all-time high (ATH), but now we're in a tricky situation:
1. We’ve got equal lows (EQL) and equal highs (EQH) forming on GOLD.
2. The price grabbed liquidity from the previous week's high (PWH), then nuked and closed below both the daily open and weekly open (WO) levels.
3. On the lower timeframes (5-15m), we've got market structure shifts (MS) and break of structure (BOS).
Given all these factors, I see three possible scenarios—two bearish and one bullish—all depending on how Monday and Tuesday’s price action (PA) plays out:
1. **Most likely**: A pump to the 15m order block (OB) in the golden pocket before moving downward toward the EQL.
2. **Bearish scenario**: The price drops from the market open straight down to EQL without testing any higher zones.
3. **Bullish scenario**: The price surges higher, closes above the 15m OB, and continues pushing toward the ATH.
Once either EQL or EQH is hit, we’ll need to watch for a reaction. Follow me if you don’t want to miss more insights like this!
Analysis of 9.12 Gold Short-term Operation StrategySpot gold is currently trading around $25,118.46/oz, with a narrow range of fluctuations on Thursday (September 12). Gold prices rose and fell on Wednesday, supported by safe-haven buying. Gold prices rose to around $2,529 earlier in the session on Wednesday, approaching historical highs, but after the U.S. CPI data, gold prices gave up gains and fell to around the 2,500 mark, closing at $2,511.33/oz, as U.S. inflation data prompted investors to scale back expectations for the Fed's super-large rate cut next week, and the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields strengthened.
First: Data, wash; before large data, gold prices have no external stimulation and it is difficult to form range fluctuations; what is large data, such as the mid-month interest rate meeting, such as the U.S. election in October, such as the Middle East war, the risk aversion of the Russian-Ukrainian war; therefore, these small data, like "ants shaking a big tree", are difficult to change the trend of the market; but they will form a wash trend;
Second: On the market, the overall market is consolidating in the large range of 2470-2530; and it is controlled by bulls; this is the core; after several weeks of trend, the market is resistant to decline and it is difficult to form a sharp drop; without the emergence of strong negative fundamentals, it is not enough to change this high-range consolidation and high-range resistance to decline trend;
In terms of data, small data are mainly for washing; on the market, it is high-range consolidation and high-range oscillation; understand this, at least it will not be very wrong; grasp the market trend, it will be relatively easy to do
Detailed intraday operation strategy:
Gold rebounds to 2522 short, defend 2530, target 2510-2500
Gold falls back to 2480 to go long, defend 2472, target 2490-2500
9.12 Gold Short-term AnalysisGold has been going up and down, but it still hasn't broken through the historical high. Gold is under pressure from the historical high resistance, so short at high, if it breaks through, follow up and go long, gold rebounds first under pressure
Gold's 4-hour moving average is still dead cross short arrangement, gold's 4-hour high point long structure, gold rebound high pressure historical high resistance, so continue to short, gold rebounded 2525 in the morning, continue to short, if it breaks through the new high, follow up and go long, the market is looking at the present, the market is also looking at what kind of operation is corresponding, gold has not broken through the new high in one fell swoop, the high point is reasonable, so it is reasonable to continue to short at high
Today's focus:
The main refinancing interest of the European Central Bank in the euro zone to September 12
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 7
The annual rate of the US PPI in August
The monthly rate of the US PPI in August
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Our 1H chart is once again representing level to level, inline with our plans to buy dips.
Monday we stated that 2495 support target was hit and we were seeing price bounce off the retracement range to head towards 2506 bullish target.
- This was hit perfectly followed with ema5 cross and lock above 2506 opening 2523, which was also hit perfectly. No further lock above 2523 confirmed the rejection back to 2506 weighted level now turned support, providing the bounce, as per our analysis.
We will now see price play between 2506 and 2523 and will need ema5 lock to confirm breakout or fadeouts
We will continue with our plans to buy dips and keep note of any unfilled gaps below, which helps us plan to buy dips accordingly.
However, as always each of our weighted levels gave the 30 to 40 pip bounces, as analysed and played out perfectly!
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2506 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2506 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2523 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2523 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2535
POTENTIALLY 2547
BEARISH TARGETS
2495 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2495 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
RETRACEMENT RANGE
2482
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2482 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2472 - 2461
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
CPI blockbuster data hits, will it break through or fall again?At present, the controversy over whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in September is still uncertain. Since March this year, the US CPI data has continued to decline, and this CPI is the last heavy data before the Fed's September meeting, and it is also the last chance to shake the expectation of interest rate cuts. As of now, the market expects a 69% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September and a 31% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut. Therefore, the results of today's CPI data release are likely to affect the sharp fluctuations in gold.
Regardless of the results of today's data release, we must be cautious in trading, because the results of large fluctuations are difficult to judge. At the same time, in addition to the direct impact on the economy, it will also affect the expectations of interest rate cuts. At that time, the large fluctuations in gold prices up and down also need to be prevented.
As can be seen from the 4H chart, there is a strong resistance near the 2530 line. So far, it has failed to break through 7 times. Whether it will fall again or set a new high depends on the results of the CPI release.
Here I give the following trading strategies for your reference:
The first option is to sell at a high level, with a target of around 2505.
The second option is to wait for the price to fall back to around 2505 and buy.
Analysis of 9.11 Gold Short-term Operation StrategyGold fell as expected and we entered the market to short sell 4 times, earning a total of 24,000U
When gold rebounded, we insisted that the high position would not break the historical high, so we would short sell. Gold was directly shorted at 2523, and the gold article also directly publicly suggested shorting at 2525. Gold fell sharply as expected and continued to build a top structure at a high level. It continued to short sell when it rebounded.
Gold did not break through the new high many times in 4 hours, and there were multiple top structures at high levels. It can be seen that gold has heavy resistance at high levels and may fall back under pressure at any time. Gold rebounded in the US market and continued to short sell.
Going against the trend, if you don’t advance, you will retreat. Gold has risen and fallen many times, and there is nothing special. It should be difficult for gold to directly set a new high in a short time. Gold rebounds and short sells.
US trading operation ideas:
Gold 2515 short, stop loss 2525, target 2505--2500
GOLD Buy Trade Closed!I managed to close the trade as the huge sell was coming down. I had held on a it longer waiting for my TP to get triggered by price.
XAUUSD: Before CPI is announced, buy if 2500 does not breakFrom the hourly chart, we can see that the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement is 2507, and the swing level of 2500-2505 has now formed a breakout pattern, so this range has now turned into support. Now as long as it can break through 2507, the gold price is likely to form a high again and try to touch the 2530 line.
So far this week, the volatility is not large. The market seems to be waiting for tomorrow's CPI data. Before the release of CPI, there is almost no data that can affect the trend of gold. Therefore, I think before CPI, the support below is solid.
The key is to look at the 2500 integer mark. As long as it is not broken, I will be bullish before CPI.
Analysis of 9.11 Gold Short-term Operation StrategyOn Tuesday, the US dollar index fluctuated above the 101 mark and finally closed up 0.03% at 101.67. US Treasury yields continued to fall, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closing at 3.650%; the two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, finally closed at 3.607%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.23%, the S&P 500 rose 0.45%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.84%. Major European stock indices closed down across the board, with the German DAX30 index closing down 0.96%; the British FTSE 100 index closed down 0.78%; and the European Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.66%.
Risk Warning on Wednesday
☆At 14:00, the UK will release the monthly GDP rate for the three months of July, the monthly rate of manufacturing output in July, the seasonally adjusted commodity trade account in July, and the monthly rate of industrial output in July;
☆At 20:30 Beijing time, the United States will release the August CPI data. The market expects its annual rate to fall from the previous value of 2.9% to 2.6%, and the monthly rate will remain unchanged at 0.2%; in terms of core CPI, the market expects the annual rate to be 3.2% and the monthly rate to be 0.2%, both consistent with the previous value;
☆At 22:30, the United States will release the EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 6, and the market expects an increase of 764,000 barrels of crude oil;
☆At 1:00 the next day, the United States will hold a 10-year Treasury auction until September 11.
The US CPI in August will rise by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, lower than 2.9% in July. If confirmed, this data is likely to strengthen market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 17-18 meeting.
The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed at next week's meeting is 67%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 33%. Although market expectations for rate cuts are divided, overall, investors generally believe that the Fed will make at least one super-large rate cut this year.
Traders in the U.S. interest rate options market are still betting that the Fed will make at least one super-large rate cut this year, although it may not be before the presidential election on November 5. Recent options activity related to the secured overnight financing rate shows that traders are increasingly positioning for a 150 basis point rate cut by the Fed before the January 29 policy decision.
Geopolitical factors have also had an important impact on the gold market. Recently, Ukraine launched drone attacks on several regions of Russia, and the Russian Federal Investigative Committee has initiated a criminal case. The escalation of this situation may lead to increased market concerns about the global economy, thereby driving demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.
In addition, tensions between Israel and Hamas continue to develop. Israel proposed that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar leave Gaza safely in exchange for the organization releasing hostages. This change in the situation may have an impact on the stability of the Middle East, thereby causing fluctuations in global market sentiment.
Gold prices continued to rise on Tuesday, rising for two consecutive trading days. Currently, U.S. Treasury yields continue to weaken, hitting a 15-month low, providing momentum for gold prices to rise; the geopolitical situation remains tense, which also attracts safe-haven buying to support gold prices. Today's short-term focus is on the support area of the 1-hour rising trend line below, and go long on gold after the correction stabilizes. At the same time, investors need to pay close attention to the impact of the upcoming CPI data on the trend of gold.
XAUUSD GoldPair : XAUUSD ( Gold / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Completed " 123 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Resistance Level
Trump vs. Harris: What Impact Will Their Policies Have on Gold?In the first presidential debate of 2024, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump highlighted their differences in economic policies. Harris proposed an "opportunity economy" approach, aiming to increase the child tax credit to $6,000 and offer tax deductions for small businesses. Trump defended his tariffs as necessary protection for the U.S. economy and linked immigration to economic problems, suggesting undocumented immigrants pose a threat to jobs and security. Harris criticized Trump’s economic management, pointing to high unemployment rates and the effects of the January 6 attack.
Globally, investors are focused on U.S. inflation data to assess economic health, with a Eurogroup meeting and rising Brent prices. Cryptocurrencies are volatile, with Bitcoin at $56,000 and Ethereum at $2,300. There’s also a decline in Asian stock indices and gold futures around $2,548. Harris criticized Trump’s trade wars and leniency with China, while Trump accused Harris of changing positions on key issues. Both candidates stressed the need for unity amid current political divisions.
Technical analysis of gold at $2,528.62 reveals several key points:
1. RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 60%: This indicates gold is in an uptrend but not overbought. A 60% RSI shows a strong uptrend without reaching extreme levels that might suggest an imminent correction.
2. Support at $2,472.28: This support level is crucial for price stability. If gold approaches or falls below this support, it could signal a potential correction or downtrend. Maintaining above this support is vital for continuing the uptrend.
3. Price Bell Curve: The triple bell shape of the price distribution, with a point of control (POC) around $2,000.00 and a second strong bell near $2,500.00, indicates significant price concentration around these levels. The $2,500.00 range is an area of interest where gold may find strong support but also suggests potential for a return to this value range.
4. Potential Impact:
o If Gold Surpasses Historical Resistance: It could rise further, potentially above $2,600, following the uptrend and bell resistance.
o If Gold Falls Below $2,472.28 Support: It might face a correction towards the POC at $2,000.00, as falling below support could trigger additional selling.
In summary, gold is at a critical phase where maintaining above $2,472.28 support is essential for continuing the uptrend. Resistance at highs should be closely monitored to determine if gold can continue rising to $2,600 or face a correction.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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Gold analysis september 11Fundamental Analysis
The steady rise continued throughout the early part of the European session and took the commodity to a fresh weekly high, with buyers now looking to build on the upside momentum beyond the $2,525-2,526 supply zone. The US Dollar (USD) is struggling to capitalize on the gains recorded over the past three days and retreated from the monthly top amid dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, is seen as a key factor driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, a weaker risk-on sentiment in general has prompted some safe-haven flows and lifted Gold closer to its all-time high in the last hour. However, bulls may refrain from positioning for any further upside moves and prefer to pause ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures. The key US CPI report will play a key role in influencing market expectations on the size of the Fed’s September rate cut and determine the next leg of the directional move for the precious metal.
Technical Analysis
Gold’s push to 2529 in European trading promises a breakout of all-time highs early today. The current key zone around 2529 in European trading could push prices back to 2540. The top is a push to the psychological port zone which is also the Fibonacci level of 2555. Conversely, if 2029 fails to break, prices could soon push to the 2517 zone before the CPI data and also the US session. and revisit the 2495 support zone and 2555 resistance when the news is released. because if the news pushes up, there will be no good entry to sell until the 2540 and 2555 areas.
Resistance above: 2535 - 2540 - 2550-2555…
Support: 2512 - 2506 - 2499 - 2493 - 2485
SELL 2537 - 2529 Stoploss 2442
SELL 2554 - 2556 Stoploss 2559
BUY 2508 - 2506 Stoploss 2503
BUY 2496 - 2494. Stoploss 2491
GOLD Buy Off S&R Trade ManagementI moved my Stop Loss to breakeven, so I am running risk-free on this trade, with commission and spreads fee factored into the stop loss placement.
