Goldidea
XAUUSD - Gold is still in a downtrend, selling strategyAs gold retraces, attention turns to support zones around 1,953 to 1,947 and key moving averages, while investors watch for signs of recovery.
Gold confirmed a breakdown from its small rising trend channel today as it fell through the lower trendline of the pattern and yesterday’s low of 1,977. Weakness was further confirmed on a drop below last Wednesday’s minor swing low of 1,970. Support for the day was seen at 1,957, leading to a bounce to test resistance around the 1,970 level. Given the characteristics of the breakdown it seems likely that a deeper retracement is in the works before gold is ready to resume its ascent.
For the upside, given today’s price action it is looking like gold might continue to retrace or consolidate for the remainder of this week. We are already heading into mid-week and the retracement only got confirmed today with the rising channel breakdown. As it stands now, an advance above today’s high is short-term bullish with strength confirmed on a daily close above the high. And then further still above the two-day high of 1,993.
XAUUSD GoldPair : XAUUSD ( Gold / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame with the Breakout of the Lower Trend Line , It will Completed its Retest from Previous Support or after BOS. Completed " 12 (123) Impulsive Waves. RSI - Divergence
Entry Precaution :
Wait until it Complete its Retracement and Reject
The US dollar has fallen and has continued to decline since lastThe dollar fell slightly in early European trading on Monday, extending last week's losses to a six-week low after the Federal Reserve became less hawkish.
At 03:20 ET (8:20 p.m. Japan time), the dollar index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of six other currencies, fell more than 1% last week, the biggest decline since the middle of last year. It fell 0.1% to 104.782. .
The dollar has fallen since last week's Federal Reserve policy meeting, when the central bank issued dovish signals about further interest rate hikes.
That trend was reinforced by Friday's official jobs report, which showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew less than expected in October. This data suggests that the U.S. labor market is cooling. This was the main reason the Fed took a hawkish stance this year. Federal funds futures suggest there is about an 85% chance that the Fed will complete the rate hike cycle and an 80% chance that the rate hike cycle will begin in June.
At least nine Fed speakers are scheduled this week, including two appearances by Chairman Jerome Powell, with the second session on Thursday including a question-and-answer session.
EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.0743, pushing the euro up to levels last seen in September, driven by a weaker dollar rather than stronger regional economies. Which area?
German data factory orders rose 0.2% in September, stronger than the expected 1.0% decline, but still a significant decline from August's revised 1.9% increase.
Moreover, German housing construction suffered another wave of layoffs in October, according to a study published Monday by the Ifo Economic Research Institute. "The situation is getting worse as more projects fail due to rising interest rates and construction prices," said Klaus Wohlrabe, head of research at Ifo.
GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.2384, extending last week's strong gains ahead of the UK's fourth-quarter GDP figures due later this week.
.
XAUUSD - Gold is decreasing, should I buy or sell gold now?Last week, gold fluctuated with a narrow range and regularly tested the psychological barrier of 2,000 USD/ounce. However, the metal still failed to hold this level as it was caught between conflicting factors between interest rate expectations and geopolitical concerns.
Among Wall Street analysts participating in the survey, 60% expect gold prices to move higher this week. 64% of retail investors participating in online polls have the same opinion.
Forecasting this week's gold price trend, Kitco News' weekly gold survey shows that analysts and retail investors are optimistic about gold for the week ending November 10. Experts expect the price to break out this week even though there is not much supporting information.
Adam Button, currency strategist at Forexlive.com, said that Friday's weak nonfarm payrolls report is a sign that the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle is over. momentum and the fact that gold remains near $2,000 an ounce even as the safe-haven push is weakening.
XAUUSD Gold Pair : XAUUSD ( Gold / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and Corrective Waves " ABC ". Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame with the Breakout of the Upper Trend Line and Making its Correction / Retracement for Channel and Break of Structure
Entry Precautions :
Wait until it Breaks or Reject LTL
❔❔GOLD lost clarity, so just walk away. It's that easyPlease check the linked ideas for more context.
Gold has shown good bullish impulses during the previous two weeks or so. However now it's kind of stuck in this messy range. And though it's saving its bullish potential, I would wait for more confirmation and actual bullish price development.
I want to show this market to remind myself what's unclear for me, and maybe you'll also add something to your plan, like what is clear and unclear in the markets.
Institutional sentiment is 50\50. Multitimeframe analysis has shown basically the same rangy wicky structure recently, so this is one of the markets that are not worth trading at this specific moment.
One more interesting thing is that this week follows a very intense week before, filled with news and strong movements. This week, on the contrary, has less news and probably will have less volatility.
Gold trading strategy at the beginning of the week November 6Many experts predict that the fall in gold prices is due to profit-taking pressure when last week the precious metal increased by 5%. Two weeks ago, the US and European economies released economic growth reports, in which GDP growth in the US increased more than twice the forecast.
As a result, US Government bond yields have increased sharply. The 10-year US Government bond yield at 6:40 a.m. this morning increased sharply by 0.79% to 4.593%/year. The Dollar-Index measuring the strength of the USD in a basket of 6 major currencies also increased 0.06% to 105,080 points at the same time.
Along with the positive economic reports published in the US and Europe two weeks ago, it is forecast that retail sales in the US will increase sharply in the last two months of the year when a series of events such as Black Friday and Christmas are held. , welcoming the new year takes place. To welcome the above events, businesses will organize discounts and promotions to attract customers to shop.
This will positively impact production and business activities, promoting economic growth. Experts say that the US economy will continue to recover strongly in the last months of the year, thereby putting pressure on gold prices.
Meanwhile, the factor supporting gold is that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are weakening as countries and United Nations organizations are finding ways to get relevant parties to implement a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
Gold price according to the trend, continue to increase pricesHello dear friends! ending the trading week with gold, let's recap the past week and discuss the new strategy for the upcoming week with Karina!
In general: Last week, gold received several important news, including the Fed's interest rate decision. Despite this, the precious metal has maintained its strong upward trend, trading around $1985 per ounce last week, with slight touches of $2000. Currently, gold has paused at $1992 and continues to show signs of further price increases, indicating its long-term development strength.
Regarding the latest news impacting gold:
The XAU/USD price reached its highest level of nearly $2005 on Friday after the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, but quickly recovered to the average trading level and ended at around $1992
Technical outlook for XAU/USD:
The previous uptrend was broken at $1987, along with a reversal signal from the EMA 34. However, gold quickly formed a new upward channel and continues to operate well within that trend. Karina has read all the comments and messages, and most of Karina friends believe in a price increase for the coming week, and Karina also shares that belief. Karina's target is for gold to reach the $2005 area next week and conquer the weekly high at the $2010 level.
What about you? What do you think about the upcoming trend for gold? Comment and let Karina know!
Xauusd:Will gold choose the direction today?
Before the release of employment data, a report showed that U.S. labor productivity had its largest increase in three years, helping to alleviate the inflationary impact of recent wage growth.The number of people applying for unemployment benefits rose for the sixth consecutive week, indicating that it is beginning to be more difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs.Economists predict that after the number of non-farm payrolls increased by 336,000 in September, the number of non-farm payrolls will increase by 180,000 in October.Friday's employment data is crucial.
In terms of gold, as can be seen from the chart, it has been within the range of 1968-1992.
Gold has maintained an upward trend for the time being. After four days of market conditions this week, gold fluctuated in the range on Monday, gold fell sharply on Tuesday, gold continued to fall on Wednesday, and gold fluctuated in the range on Thursday. Overall, compared with last week, the bulls are not so strong.
From a technical point of view, the three-day decline in the high of the daily cycle has become the standard top pattern, and the 5- and 10-day moving average has formed a cross-decline. Now the market lacks a stimulus. If today's data is not good for gold, the following target first looks at 1952, and then 1920, of which 1962-1968 is currently the key point for long and short competition.
We need to pay attention to the upper resistance point range:
2002-2010
1987-1992
Pay attention to the range of support points below:
1970-1975
1962-1968
Before the US market, you can still sell high and buy low in accordance with the above range, strictly control your position, and set a stop loss to improve your profitability.
If you don't know how to trade, join me and let us learn together to improve the success rate
Gold recovers slowly but has not disappeared ?Hello dear friends!
Just like yesterday, gold experienced strong fluctuations after the evening news and quickly returned to the previous trading level around $1987, with little change compared to the same time yesterday. Gold prices are seeking support from the weak performance of the US Dollar and the low interest rates of the US Treasury bonds as they attempt to stabilize after significant losses caused by the uncertain policies of the Federal Reserve.
On the 4-hour analysis chart:
Although gold is still limited below $2000, the long-term upward trend is still strongly supported. The strong support level at $1977 continues to serve as a good support for this precious metal. If the recovery of gold prices gains momentum, an immediate resistance level will be seen at the highest point on Wednesday, which is $1993, and above that, the $2000 level will be retested.
Acceptance above the multi-month high of $2009 is crucial for a recovery towards the highest levels seen in May near $2020.
What about you? Do you think gold will continue to rise? Or are you hoping for a decrease in gold prices?
XAUUSD NFP Updated Analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
XAUUSD - Trading strategy before Nonfarm newsWorld gold prices this morning were stable with spot gold increasing by 2.6 USD to 1,985.1 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 1,993.7 USD/ounce, up 6.2 USD from yesterday morning.
World gold is relatively stable although the labor market shows signs of decline. A recent report from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of US workers applying for unemployment benefits for the first time increased more than expected. Specifically, the number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits increased to 217,000 in the week ending October 28, an increase of 5,000 applications compared to the previous week's adjusted level of 210,000. Economists forecast unemployment claims will stay around 210,000.
According to experts, gold does not react much to weak employment data because the market is still paying attention to the recent policy decisions and stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Carlo Alberto De Casa, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said that bullion prices need to more or less consolidate a bit before continuing to rise as the long-term view remains positive.
As analysts expected, the Fed kept interest rates steady on Wednesday, as policymakers work to determine whether financial conditions are tight enough to keep inflation in check. . According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently assessing an 80% chance that the Fed will pause interest rate hikes in December.
The fall has not stopped as the Fed prioritizes reducing inflatiOn January 11, the US policy-making basis, the Fed, was completed in early November. This agency decided to maintain the USD operating interest rate at a 22-year high of 5.25%. ,5 years.
This basis was put in place to determine the likelihood of a report on the US chief economist. Specifically, the Fed said economic activity increased sharply in the third quarter of 2023, with a likely increase of 4.9%, expanding with certainty.
The job market is stable and positive when the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector in September reached 336,000 jobs, double the forecast level of 170,000 jobs. Every American has 1.5 job openings. This is consistent with the US economy accepting high interest rates but still growing well.
The Fed's announcement this time, in addition to keeping interest rates high for a long time, also contained a message of financial tightening. Specifically, the Fed said "finance and credit are in a tight state". This can be understood that the Fed and the US's basic strategies not only use monetary policy but still have the main fundamental economic tool at the present time to ensure safety.
GOLD Shared 3 Hours Ago +50 Pips 0 Drawdown , Updated !This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Xauusd:The impact of war becomes smaller
Driven by the geopolitical war situation, gold rose strongly in the final session, and gold rose as high as near 2010, which is in line with the resistance point of the war that I inferred before to expand gold.
This week, investors will usher in blockbuster events such as the Federal Reserve's resolution and the US non-farm payrolls report. Starting from Wednesday, we must pay attention to key market conditions, ADP employment numbers on Wednesday, unemployment benefits on Thursday, the Fed's interest rate resolution, Powell held a monetary policy press conference, and Friday's US October unemployment rate, October quarter-adjusted non-farm payrolls data.
As can be seen from the pictures, gold broke through quickly last week. Over the weekend, Israel announced that it had entered Gaza, but gold did not continue to rise. This can be judged that risk aversion is declining.
We need to pay attention to the upper resistance point range:
1996-2000
2003-2010
Pay attention to the range of support points below:
1982-1985
1974-1978
From a technical point of view, the key to the strength and weakness of the daily trend is 1980, and the weekly trend is 1965. If it falls below 1965 during the week, it will be possible to turn the trend and get out of the space for a sharp decline.
Now that gold has reached the window period that may be adjusted at any time, we still sell according to the above resistance range to improve our trading success rate.
So today we still follow the previous strategy, and gold still tries to sell in the resistance range. If we break through the previous high of 2010, we can stop the loss and leave first.
If you don't know how to trade, join me and let us learn together to improve the success rate
Xauusd :Gold waits again to choose the direction
As widely expected in the market, the Fed kept interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%.The Fed also said that U.S. economic activity grew strongly in the third quarter.In previous speeches, the Fed pointed out that the economy is growing at a steady rate.However, Fed Chairman Powell did not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates next month at a press conference after the decision. This is another uncertain message provided by the market in the future.At the same time, due to the small possibility of a ceasefire in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and concerns about Iran's intervention in the Middle East conflict are still high, gold rebounded after falling yesterday.
Pay attention to today: the number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the United States, and the monthly rate of factory orders in the United States in September.
Gold did not fall below the important support point of 1968 yesterday, and it is still on the upward trend for the time being. Today, I think gold is still in a volatile market, waiting for Friday's unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data before choosing the direction again.
We need to pay attention to the upper resistance point range:
2002-2010
1987-1992
Pay attention to the range of support points below:
1970-1975
1962-1968
So today you can sell in the resistance range above, or buy in the support range, and set your position based on your funds.This way your success rate can be greatly increased
If you don't know how to trade, join me and let us learn together to improve the success rate
GOLD - Gold trading strategyMany experts predict that the US economy may fall into recession this year due to the rapid pace of interest rate increases. However, the world's largest economy is surprisingly strong.
In its statement, the Fed emphasized that the US economy was still growing strongly in the third quarter, the unemployment rate was low and the banking system was resilient. This has strengthened the possibility that the US will achieve a "soft landing" as the Fed is curbing inflation without harming the economy.
Although the Fed left interest rates unchanged after its monetary policy meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said it was unclear whether the committee was done raising rates. The world's most powerful central bank president also added that the committee remains focused on bringing inflation down to its 2% target.
Some experts assess that although the Fed maintains its tightening trend, that stance is not "hawkish" enough to worry the gold market as prices keep high levels below 2,000 USD/ounce.
Although the Fed is still pursuing a "hawkish" policy, it is not enough to spook the market, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
This expert further noted that concerns related to the Israel-Hamas conflict may have more impact on gold than the Fed's monetary policies.
After a sharp decline, does Gold have a chance to recover?World gold ended October with the largest monthly increase since November 2022 thanks to safe-haven buying due to concerns surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict. In the last trading session of the month, the gold market was quiet as investors showed caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy meeting taking place on Wednesday (US time).
Commenting on the upcoming monetary meeting, experts say that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may continue the old scenario that all Fed interest rate decisions will depend on economic data. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at OANDA, said the Fed would leave open the possibility of raising interest rates again in December.
Looking back at gold's movements over the past month, spot gold hit its lowest level in 7 months at 1,809.50 USD/ounce on October 6, 1 day before the Israel-Hamas conflict broke out. However, safe-haven buying amid continuing tensions in the Middle East helped the precious metal rise 8% on the month.
However, some say gold could lose its safe-haven appeal as the world gradually adapts to developments in the Middle East. In fact, concerns about geopolitical instability cannot help gold maintain the $2,000/ounce level as the market once again returns to the Fed's monetary policy supporting USD strength. and bond yields.
GOLD - Waiting for information from the Fed, gold declinedPrecious metal prices declined ahead of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting.
Commenting on the upcoming monetary meeting, experts say that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may continue the old scenario that all Fed interest rate decisions will depend on economic data. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at OANDA, said that the Fed will leave open the possibility of another interest rate increase in December.
However, some say that gold may lose its safe-haven appeal as the world gradually adapts to developments in the Middle East. In fact, concerns about geopolitical instability cannot help gold maintain the $2,000/ounce level when the market once again returns to the Fed's monetary policy, which is supporting the strength of the USD. and bond yields.
Precious metal prices declined ahead of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting.
Commenting on the upcoming monetary meeting, experts say that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may continue the old scenario that all Fed interest rate decisions will depend on economic data. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at OANDA, said that the Fed will leave open the possibility of another interest rate increase in December.
However, some say that gold may lose its safe-haven appeal as the world gradually adapts to developments in the Middle East. In fact, concerns about geopolitical instability cannot help gold maintain the $2,000/ounce level when the market once again returns to the Fed's monetary policy, which is supporting the strength of the USD. and bond yields.
Gold increases to 2000 USD, what is the next goal?Hello dear friends, the past week of trading has seen gold surpass the $2000 resistance level as expected! Let's recap the previous week and evaluate the strategy for the upcoming week together with Karina.
Overall, gold has maintained a relatively stable trend around the $1990 - $1970 range, without any significant breakthroughs. However, the price of gold has still shown considerable growth and there are no signs of a slowdown.
As Karina predicted last Friday, it was likely that the price of gold would surpass the $2000 resistance level by the end of the day. And indeed, gold closed at $2006, achieving the expected target. Similar to the previous two weeks, the global gold market has witnessed strong buying pressure during the last trading session of the week as investors seek to protect their assets amidst uncertain developments in the Middle East. This strong momentum has contributed to the rise in gold prices.
Regarding the forecast and trading strategy for the upcoming week:
- Since gold has recently surpassed the strong psychological resistance level of $2000, it is likely that there will be a period of slight sideways movement around this level in the coming week to ensure and confirm the potential for price increase. The current strong support level is at $1980, with the next targets for gold being three levels as indicated on the analysis chart ($2015, $2035, and $2050). Another confirming factor for the price increase in gold is the reversal signal of the 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Karina remains optimistic that gold may reach the $2050 level with some short-term corrective declines. The only question now is how long it will take to reach this figure.
The upcoming week promises to be an interesting and exciting trading week. Let's wait and see the results together with Karina! Good luck to all of you.
Xauusd:What is gold waiting for?
Monday's volatility determined two points. First, gold surged to 2009 last Friday, indicating that the resistance in 2010 is very strong. Second, gold supported 1990 yesterday, and the support at this point is also strong.There was no key data in the market on Tuesday. Then, there is a high probability that gold will not be able to leave the 1990-2010 range. If it unexpectedly falls below 1990, the strong support point below will be 1980.
From the technical point of view, the daily K-line has been operating on the support of the 5- and 10-day moving average. 1990 is the support of the 5-day moving average and 1980 is the support of the 10-day moving average. Therefore, today we only need to pay attention to the strength of these two support points.
We need to pay attention to the upper resistance point range:
2002-2010
Pay attention to the range of support points below:
1990-1992
1980-1983
Today you can still sell in the above resistance range, or you can buy in the support range
When trading, you can enter in batches according to your own funds and strictly set SL to ensure the success rate of your account.
If you don't know how to trade, join me and let us learn together to improve the success rate
The road higher will be bumpyWhile bullish in the long term, we are still awaiting further pullback in the price of gold after its impressive run above $2,000. Right now, we are paying close attention to support and resistance levels near $2,009, $1,985, and $1,959. If the price of gold manages to hold above $1,985, it will be positive; the same applies to the breakout above $2,000 and resistance near $2,009. However, if the price fails to stay above the mentioned level, and we see more decline in RSI and Stochastic on the daily chart, it will alert us to more downside; in such a case, we would expect gold to drop below $1,960 (and maybe even to as low as $1,925). Yet, regardless of our opinions, it is important to note that there is a FOMC meeting scheduled for today, which can have a volatile impact (to either side) on the price depending on the FED’s decision and the chairman's tone during the press conference.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 portrays the daily chart of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from particular peaks and troughs.
Illustration 1.02
The image above shows the daily chart of RSI. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover below 70 points, which raises our suspicion (though it still could be just a fakeout).
Technical analysis
Daily = Bullish
Weekly = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
