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Gold retraces to Fibonacci 0.5Fundamental Analysis Gold (XAU/USD) fell sharply to the $2,371 level as geopolitical risks overshadowed market attention to the Federal Reserve's meeting this Wednesday. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for June, released on Friday, showed inflation remained steady, close to the Fed's 2% target. However, investors still expect the Fed to start its easing cycle in September and could provide a clearer signal after this week's meeting. On Tuesday, the JOLT Jobs Openings and the Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Index for June and July are expected to show moderate declines, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September. Technical Analysis XAU/USD’s recovery from last week’s lows around $2,350 has met stiff resistance at $2,400. This is a key resistance zone as the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart has met resistance from the downtrend since the July 17 high. However, downside efforts have been limited so far. The intraday RSI shows moderate positive momentum, with $2,380 still holding the downtrend. If the price breaks below this level, the next target would be the July 25 low at $2,350. Conversely, if the price breaks above $2,400, the broader bearish structure will be broken and the next target will be $2,430.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
2
Waiting for recovery to buy✨Fundamental Analysis Gold prices extended gains and traded near the psychological 2400 level. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data released on Friday showed a modest increase in inflation in June and raised expectations of the imminent start of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cutting cycle. This led to further declines in US Treasury yields, which also supported gold prices. Traders also preferred to wait for the outcome of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. This, along with important US macroeconomic data scheduled at the beginning of the new month, including the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, will provide fresh impetus to gold. ✨Technical Analysis Buyers are struggling to capitalize on the bullishness in the European session to push gold towards the 2,400 level. Meanwhile, the momentum above the $2,400 round figure is likely to face some resistance near the 2,408 area, around the $2,432 area. On the other side. The immediate support that gold receives is around the 2,382-2,380 level. Weakness below $2,380 may be more unlikely to push the price back to the breakout zone, currently anchored near the $2,360-2,359 area. The bullish trend is preferred by investors and they are waiting for a nice retest to get a BUY signal in line with the main trend of the market. Resistance: 2408 - 2431 Support: 2382 - 2365 SELL price range 2408-2410 Stoploss 2413 BUY price range 2380 - 2382 stoploss 2377
CITYINDEX:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold is supported to increase☘️Fundamental Analysis: Gold prices are rising above $2,420 on Wednesday, reversing an intraday decline to $2,400. Israel’s attack on the Lebanese capital in retaliation for a rocket attack in the Golan Heights on Saturday has raised the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In addition, the outlook for sluggish global economic growth and the further retreat of the US Dollar (USD) from a near three-week high hit on Tuesday are in the gold’s favor. However, bulls may refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to wait for further signals on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cut path. Therefore, the focus will remain on the outcome of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled to take place later today. This, along with geopolitical developments, will determine the trajectory for gold. ☘️Technical Analysis: From a technical perspective, the recent rebound from the vicinity of $2,350 or the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support and the subsequent move above $2,400 favors bullish traders. Moreover, the oscillators on the daily chart have started to gain positive traction and support the further upside outlook. Moreover, the strength to break above the $2,412-2,413 zone reaffirms the positive outlook and would now lift Gold prices towards last week’s high around $2,432. Sustained strength to break above the latter zone would suggest that the corrective decline from the all-time high reached earlier this month is over. On the other hand, the $2,400 mark now looks to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $2,388-2,390 zone below which gold could slide back to the 50-day SMA, currently anchored near the $2,359 zone. A convincing break through the latter zone, leading to a further decline below last week’s low, around the $2,353 zone, would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and leave XAU/USD vulnerable. Resistance: 2429 - 2433 - 2459 Support: 2400 - 2392 - 2388 SELL price zone 2431 - 2433 stoploss 2437 BUY price zone 2391 - 2389 stoploss 2385 BUY scalp price zone 2399 - 2397 stoploss 2394
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
EURUSD Analysis week 31🌐Fundamental Analysis After recovering to 1.0870 early Thursday, EUR/USD lost momentum and closed the trading day almost unchanged at just higher 1.0850 as the US Dollar (USD) benefited from upbeat data releases. Although risk sentiment appeared to be improving early Friday, the Euro struggled to attract buyers. Next week, the key EU-wide Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) inflation figures will drop on Wednesday, giving investors a clear picture of when they can expect the ECB to cut interest rates next after policymakers cut by 25 basis points in June. EU-wide HICP inflation for the year ending July is expected to have eased to 2.3% from 2.5% YoY. On the US side, the Fed will also deliver its latest rate call, which is expected on Wednesday. The US central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold in July, but investors will be watching for any major changes in policy makers’ rhetoric. Next Friday will also see the US Non-Farm Payrolls, a key data point for pricing in the possibility of a September rate hike. 🕯Technical Analysis: EURUSD remains in an uptrend, with a clear formation of wave 5 of the Elliot Wave pattern with technical support at 1.085-1.083. In the event of a completed wave 5, the pair could top around 1.100. EURUSD is hesitating around the EMA 34 and EMA 89, although showing an uptrend, the narrowing of the EMAs also increases the possibility of a trend reversal. RSI is trading below 50 but still above the 14-day moving average. This shows that investors are hesitant to choose sides at the moment. The upside is still in favor of investors who prefer wave trading. The support level of 1.084 is the key zone that determines the trend of the currency pair. If the structure is broken to move to the lower support zone, 1.077 will be the immediate area to play a role. On the other side, the first price reaction can be considered at the top resistance of 1.095, the highest level can be 1.100, the end of the wave pattern can be at Fibonacci 1.272 Resistance: 1.095-1.100 Support: 1.283-1.276 📈Trading signals📉 SELL GBPUSD zone 1.100-1.102 Stoploss 1.104 BUY GBPUSD zone 1.076-1.274 Stoploss 1.272
by TVS-Trader
Gold hesitates around the round port level of 2400☘️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices attracted some buying on Tuesday, although they remained confined within the previous day’s wider trading range and below the $2,400 mark. A weaker tone in equity markets, coupled with geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East, turned out to be key factors supporting the safe-haven commodity. Moreover, growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate-cutting cycle in September should continue to benefit gold bulls. The focus will remain on the outcome of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. This, along with key US macro data, including Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, will influence the USD and XAU/USD price dynamics. This makes the case for buying gold after the pullback from the all-time high more deliberate ☘️Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the failure to accept the level above 2,400 and the subsequent decline requires caution before positioning for any meaningful upside. Gold is trading in a descending channel and the immediate resistance is around 2,392. If this zone is broken, the round-robin resistance around 2,400 will act as a brake on any rapid upside. Some further buying could push gold towards 2,409 and 2,431, helping gold regain its bullish position. On the other hand, some selling could push gold towards the lower boundary of the descending channel. The support level at 2,367 acts as the first hurdle before gold retraces to the monthly low around 2,350. RSI on the lower time frames is showing that buying is still strong. Combined with the two tight EMA 34 and EMA 89 lines, it can be seen that the upward trajectory will be more favored by investors at the present time. Resistance: 2400 - 2407 - 2412 - 2418 Support: 2376 - 2367 - 2361 - 2353 SELL zone 2410 - 2412 Stoploss 2415 SELL zone 2430-2432 Stoploss 2435 BUY zone 2354 - 2352 Stoploss 2348 BUY zone 2367-2365 Stoploss 2362
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Whether gold can usher in a unilateral surge today-- Gold market review yesterday -- Yesterday Monday morning, gold opened 2388 line, the opening fell back 2387 after the start of the bull outbreak, gold is also thus suffered a surge to break 2390-2400, the highest to 2403 line to usher in a halt to fall back, and for this wave of fall, it is only a wave of low 2394 near once again ushered in a shock slow rise 2402 line, It is a pity that the bulls did not usher in stabilization, and then gold again ushered in a sharp fall to break 2390, the lowest fell to near 2388 to usher in another shock climb, and the short is therefore trapped in the 2395-2390 range. During the European trading session, gold has climbed to around 2395 again after a wave of slow fall since 2395 shock stopped near 2386, but the short and long lack of further breaking momentum, and gold is therefore once again ushered in a fall near 2386 from the shock. As for the United States trading period, the gold shock down near 2385 ushered in a stop recovery, bulls are also therefore broke out a wave of 2396 line, but then the short suffered a crash, gold is therefore a drop below 2390-2380-2370, the lowest fell to 2369 line to usher in a stop recovery, midnight, After a see-saw in the 2374-2378 range, gold ushered in a break of 2380, and then gold also reversed its decline and finally closed near 2383. -- Is the gold flash crash just a wash? Can gold usher in a unilateral surge today? - Yesterday Monday, for yesterday, gold is short also ushered in a little outbreak, after all, early in the morning, gold opened from 2387 ushered in a rise of 2403, bulls broke out 16 points or so, then for this wave of pull up, the reason I also said in my blog yesterday, because of a slight outbreak of geopolitical risk, this led to gold hedge buying pull up, of course, As far as the situation in the Middle East is concerned, the influence is limited, although it can stimulate gold to pull up, but it is not supposed to have such a large range, in fact, the most important thing is that the market has been activated since the gold fell sharply last week since 2353 ushered in the bottom, coupled with the assistance of geopolitical risk, which led to further higher gold. Of course, since gold can rise, it can certainly fall, as far as yesterday, gold from the highest 2403 ushered in a halt to fall back, gold fell to the lowest 2369, in general, gold is also in the opening surge after the fall of more than 30 points, for this situation, Chen Feng I also said, gold since the high process, but also relative inspired the market buying heat, In this case, gold is relatively easy to encounter the possibility of the market smashing baptism, and yesterday Monday, gold rose to break 2400 unable to stabilize the situation, the market volatility performance bleak, this, more is waiting for the outbreak of market information this week, and in this case, gold fell back to adhere to 2390-2385, It also inspired the favor of the market to do more in the short term, which is relatively attracted market institutions to intervene, which is why there will be a crash near midnight, purely because of the malicious washing of institutions, this point, you need to further prevent such situations in the next time. So, for today, Tuesday, when gold is accustomed to unilateral days, how to choose whether gold is long or short? First of all, for the moment, although gold has suffered a pullback, it is worth mentioning that the bears are not strong, after all, if it is not for smashing, gold is also difficult to have this opportunity to flash down, for this point, at present, gold is more inclined to be controlled by the market, then in this case, The long/short judgment on gold is undoubtedly a bit difficult to choose. Take yesterday for example, gold opened up, the market bullish gold heat climbed, but it happened to hit the lower, then the current, the return of gold bears still has a decline in the case, it does not rule out further encounter the possibility of long and short washing, so for today, especially the market is waiting for the Federal Reserve interest rate resolution and Powell speech before the outbreak, You also need to be careful to guard against the possibility of multi-air malicious sweep, this sweep not only refers to unilateral, it may also be said to encounter repeated baptism of multi-air, this, you remember the main. So how do I personally judge today? In fact, as far as I am concerned, or prefer to optimistic rebound, after all, for yesterday, gold can not break 2400 to stabilize and suffered a crash, the market buying heat is also hit, to say the word is not good, the market will think that the current bullish heat is high in the case of bear malicious attack, This may also cause the market to blindly bet on the short break to seek further lower bottom, but is the so-called smart anti-smart mistake, as far as the current facts are concerned, gold yesterday after the flash collapse 2369 suffered selling out, this is relatively hindered the short momentum, and then rebound 2380 saw inability to stabilize, more, in Chen Feng my personal judgment, Biased to force the short market, that is to say, gold is currently more in a kind of empty possibility, for today, I think gold will encounter a bull surge to break through 2400 higher 2410-2420 this area, of course, does not rule out further stabilization on the possibility of breaking 2430, this, you also need to be careful to do. Of course, it is not that I do not say the analysis, just say that for the moment, the analysis is useless, more, I will still speculate on the market psychology and their own sense of the market judgment, this, you can carefully follow up. So for today's operation, I personally, or prefer to fall back to do more, above the batch in the vicinity of 2380 directly open dry, break is to keep 2370 do more. Hanging 2390-2400 above the broken single defense, as for why not hold on to the low to do more, more or afraid of repeated baptism of the market resulting in profit can not fall into the bag, of course, you can still hold radical to batch on the protection. However, at present, I just look at the rebound, not bullish gold, that is to say, if gold can successfully break the 2410-2420-2430 area, I will further layout the possibility of shorting, after all, before the interest rate cut is clear, the bulls have reached the top of 2483, this point, without unexpected stimulus, the new high is difficult to appear. In this regard, as far as the general trend is concerned, I will definitely choose to find a high level to seek short opportunities, of course, as for the specific operation, I still do give in the solid offer, you remember to strictly follow my requirements to control positions and stop losses can follow up.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Transactionheadhunter01
GBPUSD analysis week 31Fundamental Analysis GBP/USD plunged on Friday, as the pound was weighed down by broad market expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) next week. This sent GBPUSD further lower to above 1.286. The UK’s benchmark interest rate is expected to be cut by 25 basis points to 5.0% from the current 5.25%. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will next deliver its rate call in July, and investors are generally expecting the US central bank to leave rates unchanged at one more meeting before starting its rate-cutting cycle in September. In addition, short-term PCE inflation accelerated month-on-month in June, rising to 0.2% versus forecasts of 0.1%. Technical Analysis GBPUSD remains in an uptrend, The decline last week is the perfect catalyst for the uptrend to continue in the coming period. The momentum shows that buyers are still in control, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which is still holding above 50. GBPUSD is supported at the 34 EMA and has responded at 1.285. The next support zone is around the EMA89 with the gap filling at 1.278. These are two important price zones that GBPUSD needs to hold to maintain the uptrend in the price channel. The bullish momentum will be reduced and could be ready for a reversal if sellers push the price to the 1.262 support zone. On the other side of the bullish trend, GBPUSD could push back to the old high of two weeks ago around 1.305 and at the highest it could touch the upper border of the rising channel around the resistance level of 1.315. Resistance: 1.305-1.314 Support: 1.285-1.278 Trading Signals SELL GBPUSD zone 1.305-1.307 Stoploss 1.308 SELL GBPUSD zone 1.314-1.316 Stoploss 1.317 BUY GBPUSD zone 1.278-1.276 Stoploss 1.275
by TVS-Trader
Gold Analysis July 26Fundamental Analysis: Gold prices gained some positive momentum during the European session on Friday, seemingly snapping a two-day losing streak. Better-than-expected US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released on Thursday reinforced the view that the economy is holding up well. Gold has shown resilience below the 34-day simple moving average (EMA) on the H1, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate-cutting cycle in September. However, upside momentum appears to be limited as traders await the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index later on Friday for further clues on the Fed's policy path. Technical Analysis Gold is trading in a narrow range ahead of the PCE data. Initial resistance is at 2373-2375, created by the trendline and the falling channel formed in the morning. If this price channel is broken, the SELL zone at 2385 and 2400 is formed at strong resistance. In the opposite direction, the support zone may sweep and the liquidity zone at 2353 and we can scalp around the 2350 zone. The support zone is stronger at 2333. Pay attention to the strong ports to have a suitable news trading strategy. SELL zone 2400-2398 Stoploss 2404 SELL zone 2384-2386 Stoploss 2390 BUY zone 2335 - 2333 Stoploss 2330 BUY zone 2350-2348 Stoploss 2345
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold analysis July 23Fundamental analysis US President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 Presidential election has increased the chances of Donald Trump becoming the next US President, raising hopes of a looser regulatory environment. Additionally, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) surprise interest rate cut on Monday still supported the market's optimistic sentiment and became the main factor acting as a drag on precious metals This safe haven. However, dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed) will help limit losses for non-yielding Gold prices. In fact, market participants seem confident that the US central bank will begin lowering borrowing costs in September and have priced in the possibility of two more rate cuts by the end of the year. This triggered a fresh decline in US Treasury yields, putting US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and supporting the yellow metal. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for some follow-through selling first with a buying strategy to extend the all-time high that has just been established. Technical analysis Gold was about to test the support level of 2386 but the selling force was no longer enough to reach the support zone yesterday. Gold price recovered to above 2400 in the third European trading session. Gold is breaking the trendline structure of the h1 frame to form an uptrend. If you can close the candle above the 2402 area, gold will be ready to conquer higher levels during the day. The first level of strong resistance could be around 2420 and next at 2431 which will help restrain the rise in gold prices. And the SELL signals are established there. On the contrary, after failing to find 2384 again, the deeper support areas at 2366 and 2350 become more difficult to reach today. The RSI index in the h4 frame is still below the average level of 50. However, the RSI has just crossed the MA 9 line, also showing that buyers have begun to jump in to push the price up. Trading signals SELL scalp zone 2422 - 2420 stoploss 2425 SELL zone 2431 - 2433 stoploss 2437 BUY scalp zone 2386 - 2384 stoploss 2380 BUY zone 2373 - 2375 stoploss 2369
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold shows signs of recovery and increases again☘️Fundamental analysis Gold prices showed uncertainty near key support at $2,400 during the European session on Monday. The precious metal remains on edge amid growing speculation that the Republican Party led by Donald Trump will win the United States (US) presidential election in November. Market experts see Trump's victory as beneficial for economic growth because he has promised to cut corporate taxes and interest rates. This has driven upside risks to consumer inflation expectations. Trump's growing margin of victory has improved the appeal of the US dollar. The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US dollar against six major currencies, fell slightly to 104.20 on Monday after a strong recovery from a four-month low is 103.65. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.22%. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of investing in non-interest-bearing assets, such as Gold. ☘️Technical analysis Gold prices trade in a narrow range near $2,400. This precious metal dropped near the EMA 89 of the 4 hour frame and is reacting bullishly. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) dipped into the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting the bullish momentum has stalled. However, the uptrend remains intact. The bullish position is ready to return if the 2400 support level remains intact after the close of the daily candle. Resistance: 2420 - 2431 Support: 2403 - 2397 - 2392 - 2382 SELL price range 2419 - 2421 stoploss 2425 BUY price range 2392 - 2390 stoploss 2386
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GBPUSD analysis July 22 - July 27🌐Fundamental analysis The British Pound (GBP) extended its correction compared to most other currency pairs. The British currency continues to slide as the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports weaker-than-expected June Retail Sales data. BoE officials are hesitant to back a move to normalize policy as the US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains stubborn amid persistent inflation in the services sector. Meanwhile, an expected deceleration in Average Earnings data for the three months ended May, a key measure of wage growth that drives services inflation, failed to lift expectations. about the BoE cutting interest rates in August because the current pace is still higher than needed to maintain stability to contain price pressures. 🕯Technical analysis The British Pound corrected sharply to near 1.2920 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD weakened as gains stalled after hitting a new yearly high of 1.3044 on Wednesday. The upward sloping moving average (EMA) near 1.2800 suggests that the uptrend remains intact. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) fell after turning slightly overbought and is expected to find a cushion near 60.00. On the positive side, the two-year high near 1.3140 will be the main resistance area for GBPUSD. Last week's peak around 1,304 could also halt the pair's surge and create a double top pattern for the pair to become more stable. On the other hand, the 1.285 and 1.277 support levels become the two main support zones keeping GBPUSD in the rising price channel. If there is a sell-off that pushes the pair beyond the price channel, it could extend the price slide to the 1,262 area, the lowest bottom in two weeks. Resistance: 1,304-1,314-1,330 Support: 1.285-1.277-1.262 SELL GBPUSD 1.314-1.316 Stoploss 1.317 BUY GBPUSD 1,280-1,278 Stoploss 1,276
by TVS-Trader
9