Get started

Geopolitics

S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 27, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this week's price action, the index bounced back to our expected target Mean Resistance of 4255 but quickly fell to retest our previously completed Inner Index Dip at 4212. It then hit the strategic point of the next Inner Index Dip at 4150 and is currently resting at a Mean Support of 4113. On the downside, the index will likely go further down toward the Inner Index Dip at 4055, followed by Next #1 at 3961 and Next #2 at 3850. All this is just for starters. However, there is a possibility of it bouncing back to Mean Resistance 4156.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 27, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: As projected, the Eurodollar completed our Inner Currency Rally of 1.070 and retracted to the designated price target Mean Sup 1.053. The intermediate price action suggests the continuation of the Reignited Pivotal Down Move to retest Key Sup 1.047 and completed Outer Currency Dip 1.045 with an extension on the horizon of Next Outer Currency Dip 1.035. Rebound to Mean Res 1.060 is a possibility.
by TradeSelecter
2
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 27, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Bitcoin smashed our projections: Inner Coin Rally 30900, Outer Coin Rally 31700, and 34000, resting at completed Inner Coin Rally 35000. The next target is the Next #1 Inner Coin Rally 36300 Next #2 37800, with a near-term final projection of Outer Coin Rally 39200. Be aware that there may be some intermediate pullbacks along the way with the main target 39200. Nevertheless, the market may fall to the Mean Support 32600 before resuming its upside movement.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
XAUUSD | SHORT BREAK BEFORE THE NORTH TRIP?Gold has been trading in a descending channel since May. But something had to happen after bottom got rejected... unfortunately it was war. Eastern conflict launched XAUUSD to the first checkpoint before the Moon. It broke through semi-channel resistance, static resistance at 1945, main channel upper dynamic resistance and finally stopped just below psychological 2000$. As you can see on my chart, latest rally from 1809 is very similar to the one from March. Same start and almost the same finish. If "copy" will be correct then we might see correction to 1945 first. Once we are there, most likely scenario (depending on upcoming US data and FOMC decision + uptades on Eastern conflict) will be bounce off from this lvl and preparation of the rocket for retesting -> eventually breaking through the 2k. On the right side you can see dotted lines with prices, these are Camarilla pivot points based on the weekly candle. In case you don't know, Camarilla points are the better (for most) version of classic pivot points. These are much more accurate since the levels are much more closer to the actual price action. Based on basic Camarilla's strategy, rejected 2005.46 will turn market to a short-term bearish sentiment . Breakout of 2029.91 would take us to retest all time high . Rejected 1956.56 would turn the bias bullish, and finally, breakout of 1932.11 could take us deeper to the south . Lately, most of the US (bullish for dollar) data was ignored by traders, and Gold kept going higher, along with DXY index. But most importantly, FED members with Jerome Powell on the top, shifted narration to more dovish one. By the time of writing this idea, traders bets 75% that there won't be more hikes this year. 99.9% that upcoming November's meeting will result in another pause (that's why you need to focus on the narration). Situation in the east is still tense. With warning of ground invasion on the line. Not to mention recent visits of Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak. Those two personas are leaning for the hold of the recent mentioned invasion. It's very important to follow the news and uptades on this topic, since it's a main driver for save-haven metal like Gold. Hope you'll find something useful in my analysis and opinion. Feel free to share your thoughts and thank you all for reading this! Take care
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by fxintouch
1
Seeking Shelter in Gold on Rising Geopolitical RisksShining bright and sizzling hot, gold has surged 8% over the past two weeks. Ample supply of geopolitical shocks from violence in the Middle East to ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has been driving gold high. This paper examines the drivers supporting the gold rally and prevailing bullish & bearish factors. It posits two hypothetical trades to astutely position portfolios amid a raft of geopolitical and economic shocks. GOLD IS A HAVEN WHEN GEOPOLITICS DELIVER SHOCKS In a previous paper , Mint Finance highlighted that gold is a resilient store of wealth as it outperforms in times of extreme volatility. Geopolitical tensions remain intense amid ongoing armed conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel which underpins gold as an investor haven. Gold responds to elevated geopolitical risks as reported by the World Gold Council . A 100 unit increase in the Geopolitical Risk Index ( GPR ) has a 2.5% positive impact on gold returns as measured by the Gold Return Attribution Model ( GRAM ). GOLD IS TRADING AT KEY PSYCHOLOGICAL PRICE LEVEL Gold prices have catapulted more than 8% since the rapid escalation in violence in the middle east over the last two weeks. Gold now trades just below USD 2,000/oz. The USD 2,000/oz mark is clearly an important psychological level. A more crucial level is USD 2,100/oz. Gold prices have failed to breach 2,100 three times over the last three years. Gold prices are exhibiting a solid bullish momentum. It has surpassed two resistance levels (1,902.9 and 1,943.4). Price action is close to forming a golden cross between 9-day and 100-day simple moving average. Gold is likely to surpass the USD 2,000/oz over the next few days. However, passing the sticky USD 2,100/oz levels might be more challenging. The continuous rally over the past two weeks may be due for a correction if the momentum fails to hold. RSI has already raced past its upper bound. Large upward moves are known to be followed by sharp price pullbacks. SEASONAL DEMAND FROM GOLD MAJORS POSITIVELY AFFECTS GOLD PRICES The top two largest gold consumers are China and India. Combined, they represent ~50% of total global demand. Both paint a positive picture for gold demand. 1. Shrinking Premiums in China to bolster demand China represents 25% of global gold demand. China’s domestic gold availability has been strained over the past few months while demand has remained high leading to an all-time-high premium on domestic gold prices over international gold prices. These premiums have eased sharply over the past few days as supply conditions improve after China’s golden week holidays. Lower premium on domestic gold makes it an attractive buy. Furthermore, wholesale gold demand in China is showing signs of improvement. Gold ETFs are attracting notable inflows. The PBoC is building its gold reserves at a brisk pace. 2. Strong Monsoon cements solid demand for Gold in India India represents 24% of global gold demand. Monsoon and festivals have a major impact on Indian gold demand. Indian consumers buy gold as wedding gifts or as investments during festivals. Demand is expected to spike during the upcoming festival and wedding season. This year, India witnessed a wet monsoon which bodes well for farmers. Consequently, that is good for gold demand too. Rural India represents 60% of the country’s gold demand. As highlighted by Debbie Carlson in CME OpenMarkets , a wet monsoon leads to better harvests and higher earnings for farmers driving a positive effect on gold demand. GOLD PRICES ARE SIZZLING HOT Despite the bullish drivers, a major headwind to the gold demand is its high prices. Gold prices remain elevated. Higher prices lead to guarded consumers. With prices 9% higher YTD and 20% higher over the past one-year, the rally in prices until now has been rapid, making consumers wary of overinvesting in the yellow metal. Gold does not generate yields. It pays no dividends or interest. When risk free rates remain high, investing in gold is not lucrative. As the 10Y US Treasury yield stubbornly stays around 5%, investors opt for treasuries over gold. Gold prices are at record high in several non-USD currencies. That makes gold even more expensive. Weaker Indian Rupee and the Chinese Renminbi crushes domestic demand down. INSIGHTS FROM COMMITMENT OF TRADERS AND OPTIONS MARKET Asset managers had been building up net short positioning in CME Gold Futures until recently. Bearish sentiment in gold began in July, when investors started to anticipate further Fed rate hikes. Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, these asset managers are shifting away from net short to net long positioning over the last one week. Implied volatility on gold options has shot up to levels last seen during the banking crisis in March, but historical volatility remains far lower in comparison. This suggests potential for rising volatility ahead. Source: CVOL Skew on gold options have surged with call premiums having risen faster than put premiums. Source: CME Quikstrike Options traders are far more bullish than those trading Gold futures. Put/Call ratio for gold options is 0.52 implying two calls (bullish bets) for every put (bearish bet). Source: CME Quikstrike HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP A hypothetical long position in CME Micro Gold Futures can be used to harness gains from the overwhelmingly bullish sentiment in gold. CME Micro Gold Futures expiring in December (MCGZ23) provides exposure to 10 oz of gold. It requires an initial maintenance margin of USD 780 (as of 23rd Oct 2023). These micro contracts can be used to secure granular exposure in a capital efficient manner. Still, given the uncertainty and the risk for sharp reversal, a tight stop loss is appropriate to protect from a sharp price correction. Entry: USD 1,994 Target: USD 2,090 Stop Loss: USD 1,945 Profit at Target: USD 960 ((2090-1994) x 10) Loss at Stop: USD 490 ((1994-1945) x 10) Reward to Risk: 2.1x Alternatively, investors can deploy bull call spread on CME Gold Options expiring in December (OGF4) to express the view that gold may retest USD 2,100/oz but not rise beyond. A Bull Call Spread consists of a long call position at a lower strike (USD 2,020) and a short call position at a higher strike (USD 2,100). The position requires net premium of USD 2,400 (USD 4,970 - USD 2,570). The payoff for the hypothetical position is provided below. Both upside and downside for the position are fixed. Hypothetically, the position breaks even when prices reach USD 2,044/oz and has a maximum payoff of USD 5,600. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by mintdotfinance
$GOLD -Where to Next! (TP1 Hit / ~16.000 Pips) *Game-PlanTVC:GOLD On the previous Quarterly Idea released as a macro/investor POV for TVC:GOLD , a *3M(monthly) area was given as an entry point in terms of market structure. We received a great entry on a Quarterly Level *3M. Salute to everyone of you who took action upon it. Sure did the members of bingX copy-trade community. " Where 2 Next for TVC:GOLD !? " -Fundamentally speaking, safe-heaven assets the likes of Bonds TVC:US10Y , MIL:BTC and TVC:GOLD have sky-rocketed recently and they are on a very desirable highlight right now. So did Crude Oil ICEEUR:BRN1! due to 'WAR' break-out from Israeli Occupiers towards the People of Palestine. The on-going 'WAR' or better said, Ethnic Cleansing, must be observed on the following week(s) to come. Upcoming week (the last week of October) is packed with GDP Q3/2023 reports from various countries, (US,EURO-ZONE,UNITED KINGDOM, GERMANY, ITALY) - TA speaking, a pull back in TVC:GOLD in terms of price action to S/R resistance + Recent Demand area would be very beneficial for uptrend resumption, in order for the TVC:GOLD market to test buyers and sellers . This level should hold, otherwise Changing Character at 1.910$ would suggest price to behave on a more steeper fashion , headed on lower areas at 'alternative SL trail' *D Level or even down further South. This scenario would invalidate the recent uptrend of 10%+ in 10 days on $GOLD. *** NOTE This is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research with your own diligence and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea. Ideas being released are published for my own trading speculation and journaling needed to be clear on different asset classes price action.
TVC:GOLD
by Mr_J__fx
EURUSD: Lower time frame act needed.Hello traders, Since it's Friday and regarding instability in the middle east that could be spread to the world, we decide to set a mid-term trade! Fundamentally EURUSD is going to be bullish: There are no basic data releases during the American session, so all attention will be on the speeches of FOMC members Patrick T. Harker and Loretta Mester. Given that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear yesterday that no one expects to hike rates suddenly, it is unlikely that we will hear anything new from them this week that they haven't already indicated. So EURUSD might be bullish in next days, the only setback is weekly R1 in the week of trend changing, if we are really in a trend-changing-week, R1 and S1 could be stronger than in a trending week! Long-term technically: EURUSD has formed new HH and HL To do: Wait for liquidity hunt! If the 1.0549 has been touched, wait for bullish CHOCH or BMS, then put your Entry point around the bullish OB+! SL is better to be around 1.0505 ( may be some pipets lower) TP could be below the 1.0600 You better close most of your position before weekend! Best regards, @AliSignals
Long
by AliSignals
$BRN1! -Are you Ready for Winter's Storms ahead ?!- The most recent conflict on the Middle East between Israel and Palestine(Hamas) has caused TVC:GOLD and Brent Crude Oil (futures) ICEEUR:BRN1! price to jump 4% . This increase risk on Geo-Political spectrum is messing up with our Short in ICEEUR:BRN1! . Short Call idea was shared on bingX copy-trade community where 2.000 people saw the Short trade opportunity. Congratulations to those who took action. (Calm before Winter's Storm Idea; Russia & Saudi Arabia two of the largest World's Oil Producers steady keeping production cuts) We have already partially taken profits off our trade before conflicts occurrence, leaving the position opened by aiming at full TP profits at Golden Zone (which may not be reached now due to the conflict) *** NOTE This is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research with your own diligence and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea. Ideas being released are published for my own trading speculation and journaling needed to be clear on different asset classes price action.
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by Mr_J__fx
Stocks, Rates and Inflation: Assessing Risks and OpportunitiesOver the last year, there have been increasing concerns about threats to the US and global economies, mainly due to all the rate hikes from the Fed and other central banks. However, these fears have definitely not played out, as consumer spending and business hiring have shown surprising durability in the US, despite rate hikes and inflation. Several factors explain the stock rebound since mid-2022: - Bearish positioning left room for a short squeeze as negative expectations didn’t play out at all. Attention has returned to quality large-cap technology firms leading in AI development like Google and Microsoft, as their innovations promise productivity gains that support growth. - Ongoing passive investing inflows, corporate buybacks, past fiscal stimulus, and excess savings, the Fed and Treasury generating shadow liquidity, China and Japan keeping rates low and stimulating, the massive deficits of the US government (investors know the US is essentially ‘broke’). - Inflation coming down is also boosting stocks, as stocks are mainly valued based on inflation, not interest rates. - The Fed might have finished its hiking cycle or might have one last hike left. Current rate expectations are indicating that rate cuts will come by early 2024. While earnings seem to be plateauing from peak levels, profitability remains healthy overall. GDP growth remains positive and revised higher, the US economy keeps adding jobs and the unemployment rate remains at record lows. Global challenges persist, as supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures from the Ukraine war might come back at any time, despite having significantly subsided. Demographic trends of aging populations in developed countries also drag on labor force expansion and economic growth. High debt loads worldwide likewise limit stimulus options without leading to inflation or instability. While inflation has moderated, it remains elevated and sensitive to many factors, from geopolitical instability to climate change. More concerning, inflation has eased without a clear link to the Fed’s policy tightening. It’s improbable that the Fed hikes were the ones that pushed inflation from 9.1% down to 3%, as rate hikes act with long and variable lags. This is raising doubts about the Fed, it's forecasting, and its monetary policy’s effectiveness in controlling inflation over the long term, especially as their current super-tight interest rate policy could lead to catastrophic deflation and recession. Given rising recession risks, the Fed will likely be forced to reverse course and start cutting rates by the end of 2024. This policy whiplash carries risks of its own, as we currently seem to be heading toward a deflationary shock, which might be followed by another inflationary wave. With massive deficits, the Fed also faces constraints from high-interest costs on debt even as its policies try to restrain growth and inflation. The economy isn't a simple dial the Fed can turn on and off. What’s even more concerning, is that the Fed is essentially trying to suppress wage gains and cause unemployment to curb inflation, which is something that could induce an inequality-worsening spiral. In our opinion, a more balanced approach recognizes that moderate wage growth won’t spur runaway inflation, especially as technology evolves work. The policy should prepare workers for automation and AI through training programs, not just reactively responding to lagging data as it is currently doing. The Fed’s constraints highlight the need for creative solutions to complement monetary policy. The economy is a multifaceted system requiring diverse policy responses. With vision and flexibility, emerging technologies like AI have immense potential to broadly uplift living standards. But this requires inclusive policies and acknowledging the economy's dynamism. The future likely holds turbulence, but with strategic foresight productivity gains can be harnessed for the benefit of all. Despite concerns over rising rates, the fundamental backdrop remains favorable for stocks. Many investors have grown excessively bearish and underestimate the market's upside potential. Sentiment and positioning remain bearish and cautious, with most investors underestimating all the positive headwinds for stocks, especially productivity gains from AI, falling inflation, falling rates, and currency debasement. Crucially, the rally since mid-2022 has not been fueled by leverage, unlike past bubbles. Margin debt levels decreased last year, reducing systemic risk. The market has a strong foundation to build on gains, especially as most unprofitable tech has been clobbered and hasn’t recovered, unlike US tech behemoths. Big tech and AI stocks are leading the way higher, forming a new monopoly built on network effects and immense scale. Their nearly unassailable competitive advantages will drive growth for years to come. Although in the short-term sentiment has turned bullish, hence a 10% correction is possible, we don’t think that a new bear market is in the cards until stocks make new all-time highs. In conclusion, while risks remain, the US economy has proven resilient amid rate hikes and inflation. Productivity gains from AI innovations, coupled with prudent and flexible policymaking, can support continued growth and market gains if properly harnessed. Investors should look through short-term volatility and maintain a constructive long-term outlook.
TVC:DXY
by BitcoinMacro
$BTC - Bulls vs Bears All you need to know about #bitcoin and where it's at , Fundamentally and TA speaking ; Fundamentally, there is a mixed feeling between Bulls and Bears. They both have their solid case ; Recently #bitcoin has been fueled in price by the Banking Crisis which is likely to continue, and Feds may be on no support of banks bailout, as the US Debt Ceiling has reached it's climax and Congress seem to be very against expanding it furthermore. All this Banking Craze might give #Bitcoin a real Bullish fundamental case when it comes to being applied as ; ' Be your own Bank ' ... adding in to that, Technical Case of TA with 19.6K holding so far as a Higher Low from 15K (which indicates a bullish uptrend momentum and a speculative Bottom there compared to previous Halving Cycles) While with Bears on the other side foreseeing incoming looming times for Financial Markets and a US Recession or a Global One (with BRICS coming forth united) adding high risk to TVC:DXY as a Global Reserve Currency. China and Russia have been purchasing Gold heavily past year and ongoing through 2023 Bears have a real case as well as we've seen #bitcoin being highly correlated to Equities Sector of Wall Street, so it won't escape their gravity pull on Bearish Momentum. Whatever happens between Bulls VS Bears that is yet to be seen. 2023 has been so far the year of OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold) and other precious metals due to Macro Economic Risks, Banks Meltdown, and Geo Politics (BRICS and Russia vs Ukraine ongoing war) Bitcoin being an deflationary asset in it's nature , has out-performed them YTD with a high of 72% ROI . Future belongs to the Bulls alongside deflationary assets.
by Mr_J__fx
Analyzing Inflation: COVID-19, Energy, Conflict & LaborInflation, a critical financial and economic indicator, has been significantly impacted by various factors in recent years. This article delves into the influence of COVID-19, changes in work patterns, labor market shifts, energy sector decisions, and the Russia-Ukraine war on inflation, presenting a comprehensive analysis of our present financial landscape. COVID-19 and Supply Chains: A Recipe for Inflation The global pandemic, COVID-19, significantly disrupted supply chains worldwide. With a combination of limited supply and robust or surging demand, the result was inevitable - a price increase, a key driver of inflation. Rising costs of materials, labor, energy, and transportation, all amplified by the pandemic, made goods more expensive to manufacture and transport, further contributing to inflation. The aftermath of these disruptions led to a ripple effect: a rise in supply chain costs. Consumers facing higher prices found themselves with reduced disposable income, which could, in theory, lower demand. However, the essential nature of many goods affected by these disruptions likely negated this potential offset, fueling inflation further. In the long run, these disruptions could lead to persistent inflation. The pandemic has exposed the fragility of 'just-in-time' inventories and the impact of underinvestment in global commodity supply chains, adding to inflationary pressures. Consequently, inflation may become a more permanent fixture, disrupting business planning and forecasting and adding another layer of complexity to the economic environment. Labor Market Shifts: From Crisis to Recovery The pandemic has considerably affected the labor market, resulting in significant shifts and shortages across various sectors. The initial outbreak led to severe job losses, with the global unemployment rate peaking at 13%. However, as economies start to reopen, we're seeing an interesting trend: people voluntarily leave their roles, even as worker demand increases. This labor shortage, induced by changing demographics, border controls, immigration limits, and the call for better pay and flexible work arrangements, presents another challenge in our economic landscape. Furthermore, the acceleration of digitalization and the gig economy could have enduring effects on labor supply and productivity. The crisis has potentially long-term implications, like automation's role in slowing the employment recovery in service occupations. Remote Work: A Double-Edged Sword The rise of remote work, while offering significant societal and economic benefits, also carries potential inflationary effects. Increased demand for houses/apartments, home office equipment, utilities, and other home-centric products and services has led to price hikes, accelerating inflation. Moreover, while remote work has the potential to boost productivity and create new job opportunities, it also brings challenges. Difficulties in collaboration, communication hurdles, and blurred work-life boundaries could negatively impact productivity, painting a more complex picture of remote work's overall effect on productivity and inflation. Energy Decisions: A Balancing Act The decision to reduce investments in nuclear energy and fossil fuels can influence inflation and the overall energy market. A decline in energy production can lead to price increases due to supply-demand imbalances, contributing to inflation. Moreover, reduced domestic energy production may increase dependence on imported energy, which, if more expensive or if international energy prices rise, could also lead to inflation. Transitioning to green energy without adequate investment and planning could lead to shortages and disruptions, driving up energy prices and contributing to inflation. While renewable energy technologies are advancing rapidly, they cannot fully replace the capacity provided by nuclear and fossil fuels in many countries. This could lead to energy shortages and price increases, particularly if the transition to green energy outpaces the technology's readiness. The variability of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, presents another challenge. Without adequate energy storage and grid infrastructure investment to manage this variability, energy supply disruptions and price spikes could become more common. Moreover, a rapid transition to green energy could displace existing energy jobs before adequate green energy jobs are created. This could lead to economic instability and potentially contribute to inflation. While the long-term costs of renewable energy can be lower than fossil fuels, the initial investment required to build renewable energy infrastructure can be high. Higher energy prices can pass these costs to consumers, contributing to inflation. In conclusion, while the transition to green energy is crucial for addressing climate change, this transition must be well-planned and well-managed. Policymakers must strike a careful balance between the urgency of climate action and the need to maintain energy security and economic stability. The Russia-Ukraine War: Geopolitical Inflation The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also played a role in driving inflation. The war has disrupted the supply of essential commodities such as oil, gas, metals, wheat, and corn, pushing their prices upwards. These nations are major suppliers of these commodities, and their reduced supplies have led to sharp price increases worldwide. Furthermore, the conflict has exacerbated global supply chain disruptions, already strained by the COVID-19 pandemic. This has led to heightened inflationary expectations among businesses and consumers. Additionally, the war has significantly increased oil and gas prices, particularly in Europe, directly impacting inflation and household spending. The war has also weakened global economic confidence, further fueling inflationary pressures. Countries already grappling with financial challenges, such as Lebanon and Zimbabwe, have been severely impacted by the inflationary effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. Overall, the conflict is estimated to add about 2% to global inflation in 2022 and 1% in 2023, compared to pre-war forecasts. Conclusion In conclusion, the dynamic interplay of the COVID-19 pandemic, remote work, labor market shifts, energy sector decisions, and the Russia-Ukraine war has significantly influenced inflation. Policymakers, economists, and businesses must navigate this complex landscape to develop effective strategies that mitigate inflationary pressures while promoting sustainable economic growth. As we move forward, we must continue to monitor these factors to understand their ongoing effects on inflation and the broader economy.
TVC:US10Y
by BitcoinMacro