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GBPUSD Analysis 10-11-23The GBPUSD broke down from yesterday's consolidation at 1.2280 due to the DXY strength. As the price currently consolidates along the 61.8% fib retracement level (1.2225), the easy trend-following setup would be for a continuation of the downside toward the support level of 1.2160 and trendline, if the DXY continues to strengthen. However, an alternative view to consider would be for a retracement on the GBPUSD, to retest the resistance level and 38.2% fib retracement level (1.2290), especially given that the UK GDP data was released today at 0.2%, slightly higher than forecasted.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
GBP/USD calm ahead of UK GDPThe UK economy has been struggling and Friday's GDP is expected to indicate negative growth, with a market consensus of -0.1% q/q for the third quarter. In Q2, GDP showed a small gain of 0.2%. August GDP is expected at 0.0% m/m, after a 0.2% gain in September. A soft GDP report will raise speculation about a recession and could weigh on the pound. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill appeared to backtrack earlier today after saying on Wednesday that market pricing of a rate cut in August 2024 was "not totally unreasonable". Pill stated on Thursday that the BoE expected to maintain restrictive rates for an extended period, but would not make any promises. On Wednesday, Governor Bailey dismissed the possibility of rate cuts in the short term, and Pill may have wanted to put to rest any speculation that his remarks contradicted Bailey's comments. The BoE maintained rates at 5.25% last week and holds its next meeting on 14 December. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell didn't discuss monetary policy in public remarks on Wednesday, and the markets will again be looking for some hints about monetary policy when Powell speaks later in the day. Earlier this week, two Fed members sounded hawkish about inflation. On Wednesday, Philadelphia Fed President Harker said he expected rates to stay higher for longer and there were no signs that the Fed would trim rates in the near term. This followed Dallas Fed President Logan, who said that inflation remains too high and looks to be trending towards 3% rather than the Fed's 2% inflation target. Logan warned that the Fed would have to maintain tight financial conditions in order to bring inflation back to target. 1.2287 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 1.2340 There is support at 1.2214 and 1.2175
by OANDA
TradePlus-Fx|GOLD: high's update💬 Description: The metal follows the previously planned course exactly. Demand continues to grow, including against the backdrop of the aggravated situation in the Middle East, but in addition, purely technically, sellers cannot realize their sales at the local elites. In the very near future, most likely, Gold prices will go towards updating local highs. In turn, this will cause another activation of sellers’ stop losses, and the approach to 2000 will be implemented. 🔔 FX CALENDAR TODAY 🔔 🇪🇺ECB Interest Rate Decision 🇺🇸GDP 🇺🇸Trade Balance 🇪🇺ECB Press Conference 🇺🇸Pending Home Sales 🇪🇺ECB President Lagarde Speak 🇺🇸KC Fed Manufacturing Index ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 🚀Thank for your BOOSTS 🚀 👇Share your views and FOLLOW US 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradePlus-Fx
12
Market Update - October 27th Bitcoin hits $35k amid more encouraging ETF news: BTC soared from ~$30k USD to ~$35k earlier in the week, before settling around $34k USD by Friday. Spurring the price action, news began circulating on Monday that BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, with the ticker IBTC, was listed with the DTCC, leading to speculation that the ETF was nearing approval. Bitcoin open interest on CME hits all-time highs: Open interest for bitcoin derivatives on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hit 100,000 BTC (~$3.4 billion USD). The trend may reflect growing interest in bitcoin from institutional investors as the conversation around a coming spot bitcoin ETF continues to heat up. SEC directed to review Grayscale’s spot bitcoin ETF application: A US federal court issued a mandate directing the SEC to review Grayscale's application for a spot bitcoin ETF. Grayscale submitted a registration statement to the SEC on October 19, stating its intention to list shares of its spot bitcoin ETF on the New York Stock Exchange Arca under the ticker GBTC. Q3 GDP beats estimates, and treasury yields continue to rise: Third-quarter US GDP showed robust growth of 4.9% on an annual basis, surpassing estimates of 4.7%. Treasury yields continued to rise, putting additional pressure on equities. Yields on the 10-year treasury surpassed 5% on Monday, hitting its highest level in over a decade, but has since dipped to the 4.8% range. 🤝Topic of the Week: Basic Trading Order Types ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
USD/JPY edges lower, Tokyo Core CPI risesThe Japanese yen has steadied after three straight days of losses. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.11, down 0.19%. Tokyo Core CPI climbed 2.7% y/y in October, above 2.5% in September which was also the consensus estimate. The index, which excludes fresh food is a key indicator of inflation trends in Japan and is closely monitored by the Bank of Japan. Tokyo's headline CPI also rose in October, from 2.8% to 3.3%. The Bank of Japan will find it hard to ignore these hotter-than-expected inflation readings. The timing of these releases is awkward for the BoJ, which holds its policy meeting on Oct. 30-31. Underlying inflation is proving to be stickier than expected and BoJ policy makers may have to revise upwards their inflation outlooks for 2023 and 2024. High inflation is a risk to Japan's recovery, putting pressure on the BoJ to make some kind of move at the meeting. The central bank will have a busy agenda at next week's meeting. Aside from stubbornly high inflation, the BoJ will have to decide whether to tweak its yield curve control (YCC) program and what to do about the falling yen. The Japanese currency breached the symbolic 150 line this week for the first time since October 3rd, raising speculation that the BoJ could shift its policy or even intervene in the currency markets. Tokyo has responded to the yen breaching 150 with the usual verbal intervention, warning investors not to sell the yen. The BoJ won't be providing any advance warning about a currency intervention, so traders should remain on alert. For those doubting US exceptionalism, the superb US GDP of 4.9% in the third quarter was proof in the pudding of a robust US economy. This was the fastest growth rate since Q4 of 2021, boosted by strong consumer spending in the third quarter. The sharp rise in growth hasn't changed market expectations with regard to rates, which have priced in pauses at the November and December meetings. USD/JPY is testing support at 1.5017. Below, there is support at 149.67 There is resistance at 1.5049 and 1.5099
by OANDA
AUD/USD edges lower, China data beats expectationsThe Australian dollar started the day higher but has reversed directions. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6357, down 0.13%. The US dollar has steamrolled the Aussie, which hasn't posted a winning week since September and dropped close to a one-year low last week. The Australian dollar has bounced back this week, however, gaining 1.08%. The situation in the Middle East remains perilous, with the risk that the Israel-Hamas war could spread and ignite a regional war. President Joe Biden has arrived in Israel, a move intended as a warning to Iran and others not to enter the conflict. The fighting has not affected risk sentiment, as investors haven't panicked and snapped up greenbacks. Still, the Middle East is a powder keg at present and if the situation worsens, we could see a flight to the US dollar. Australia will release employment numbers on Thursday. Job growth has been solid and posted a strong gain of 64,900 in August. Employment is expected to fall sharply to 20,000 in September. Unemployment has been at low levels and is expected to remain at 3.7% for a third straight month. China is Australia's number one trading partner, which means that Chinese releases can have a significant impact on the Australian economy. China's post-Covid recovery has been much weaker than expected, and deflationary pressures and a property crisis could have negative implications for the global economy. Chinese released key data on Wednesday and all three releases beat expectations. GDP for Q3 rose 4.9% y/y, above the consensus estimate of 4.4% but well shy of second-quarter growth of 6.3%. Retail sales for September climbed 5.5% y/y, up from 4.6% in August and above expectations of 4.9%. Finally, industrial production was unchanged in September at 4.5% y/y, compared to the consensus estimate of 4.3%. China's economy may be in better shape than expected, but the road to recovery is likely to be a bumpy one. AUD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.6343. Below, there is support at 0.6240 0.6399 and 0.6430 are the next resistance lines
by fisherkj4
GBP/USD drifting ahead of UK GDPThe British pound is calm on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2297, up 0.10%. The UK economy has been struggling and GDP declined by 0.5% m/m in July. The markets are expecting a rebound on Wednesday, with GDP projected to rise by 0.2% m/m in August. For the three months to August, GDP is expected to increase by 0.3%, up from 0.2% in the previous release. The IMF report on Tuesday didn't bring much cheer, with the report stating that the Bank of England would need to maintain elevated interest rates into 2024 due to weak growth and sticky inflation. The same day, the BoE's Financial Policy Committee also said that rates would have to "stay high for a long time", warning that would put pressure on households. The Federal Reserve has kept to a hawkish script, trying to convince the markets that the tightening cycle may not be over. That message has changed in recent days, as the Fed has become more dovish. The reason? US Treasury yields have been rising sharply, with 10-year yields hitting a 16-year high on Tuesday. The spike in yields has made borrowing costs more expensive and could act as a brake on the economy and push inflation lower without Fed intervention. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday that the Fed didn't need to raise rates anymore in order to push inflation back to the Fed's 2% target. Bostic is considered a dove, but he has support for this position. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly both stated that the increase in Treasury yields could mean less need for the Fed to raise rates in the current tightening cycle. 1.2179 and 1.2097 are providing support 1.2321 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 1.2403
by fisherkj4
A very long-term (Macro) Approach To US/Global MarketsAfter completing my weekend research/videos, I wanted to create something that provided an anchor for traders/investors. This video is not focused on the short-term market trends - although it does discuss what I expect to see play out over the next 12 to 24 months. This video is more about preparing traders/investors for the global events related to Central Banks, market trends/opportunities, and how I believe the markets will react over the next 5+ years. After watching this video, your job will be to watch for key events to unfold. These events, described in the video, will be key to understanding where opportunities and risks are in market trends. This is NOT the same market we've been used to from 2010 through 2021. This is an entirely different beast of a global market. Credit/debt issues will persist, and conflicts/war may drive major repricing events. Pay attention and follow my research. I'm delivering this long-term research to help you better prepare for market trends and protect your capital from downside risks.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
EUR/USD extends losses, eyes German inflationThe euro has extended its losses on Wednesday and has declined close to 1% this week. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0552, down 0.18%. Germany has traditionally been the powerhouse of Europe but finds itself lagging in the rear, with a struggling economy and high inflation. The GfK Consumer Climate index fell to -26.5 for October, down from a revised -25.6 in September and shy of the market consensus of -26.0. This was the lowest reading since April and suggests that consumer sentiment will remain weak in the near future. The GfK report warned that private consumption will not contribute towards Germany's recovery, which is grim news for the eurozone. One of most eagerly waited eurozone releases is the German inflation report, which will be released on Thursday. The consensus estimate for German CPI stands at 4.6% y/y, compared to 6.4% y/y in August. If the estimate is on track, it would mark a significant win for the ECB, which has been raising rates aggressively in order to curb high inflation. The ECB raised rates last week, but the lead-up to the meeting was dramatic as it was a 50-50 call whether the ECB would hike or hold. A sharp drop in German inflation could send the euro lower as it would support the ECB taking a pause at the October meeting. The week wraps up with German retail sales on Friday. After back-to-back declines, retail sales for August are expected to rebound to 0.5% m/m. The US releases third-estimate GDP on Thursday, with a market consensus of 2.0%. This follows the second-estimate of 2.1% and the preliminary estimate of 2.4%. The US economy has recorded respectable growth figures despite the Federal Reserve's sharp tightening, as the labour market has remained strong and consumers continue to spend. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0594. Next, there is resistance at 1.0666 There is support at 1.0544 and 1.0472
by OANDA
British pound loses ground after mixed jobs reportThe British pound is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2470, down 0.31%. Will the real UK labour market please stand up? The UK labour market is showing signs of weakening, while at the same time wage growth grew at a record pace, according to today's employment release. The economy shed 207,000 jobs in the three months to July, compared to a 66,000 fall a month earlier and weaker than the consensus estimate of -185,000. This was the sharpest loss of jobs since September 2020. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% up from 4.2% and matching the consensus. The data is a clear sign that the labour market is cooling, but wage growth excluding bonuses rose 7.8%, unchanged from a month earlier and the highest on record. Wages are growing faster than consumer inflation, which rose 6.8% in July. The sharp rise in wage growth will provide support for the hawks who favour pushing rates higher in order to curb inflation. The Bank of England has been non-committal about next week's meeting, although Governor Bailey said last week that the BoE was "much nearer" to ending the current tightening cycle. That may indeed be the case, but the markets have priced in a rate hike at the September 21st meeting at close to 80%. Investor focus will now shift to UK GDP which will be released on Wednesday. After a respectable gain in June of 0.5%, the markets are bracing for a decline of -0.2% in July. A contraction in growth could extend the pound's losses. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2471. Above, there is resistance at 1.2519 There is support at 1.2395 and 1.2322
by OANDA
1
Canadian dollar steady ahead of jobs reportThe Canadian dollar is steady on Friday in what should be a busy day. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3670, down 0.12%. Canada releases the August job report later today, with the markets braced for a decrease of 6,400 in employment. The US dollar has been on a tear against the major currencies since mid-July. The Canadian dollar has slumped, losing about 450 basis points during that span. The Canadian economy hasn't been able to keep pace with its southern neighbor, and that was made painfully clear as GDP contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter, below expectations. The deterioration in economic growth is a result of a weak global economy as well as the Bank of Canada's steep tightening cycle. After back-t0-back increases, the BoC opted to pause at this week's meeting and held the benchmark cash rate at 5.0%. Governor Macklem likes to use the term "conditional pause", which means that a break from rate hikes will depend on economic growth and inflation levels. At this week's meeting, the BoC's rate statement was hawkish, warning that inflation was too high and not falling fast enough. This was a signal that the door remained open to interest rate increases. Macklem was more explicit on Thursday, stating that further rate hikes might be needed to lower inflation and warning that persistently high inflation would be worse than high borrowing costs. The markets are more dovish about the BoC's rate path, given that the economy is cooling and the central bank will be wary about too much tightening which could tip the economy into a recession. The markets have priced in a 14% probability of a rate hike at the October meeting. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3657. The next resistance line is 1.3721 1.3573 and 1.3509 are providing support
by OANDA
USD/CAD rises to 22-week high, BoC decision loomsUSD/CAD is trading quietly in Europe at 1.3651, up 0.06%. I expect to see stronger movement in the North American session, with the Bank of Canada making its rate announcement and the US releasing the ISM Services PMI which is expected to show little change. The Bank of Canada is virtually certain to hold rates at today's meeting, with just a 6% probability of a rate hike, according to the TMX Group. That would leave the benchmark cash rate at an even 5.0%. BoC Governor Macklem would certainly like to call it quits on the central bank's aggressive tightening cycle and perhaps he can look for advice from his peers at the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Both the US and Australian economies have seen inflation fall significantly, but Jerome Powell at the Fed and Peter Lowe at the RBA have sent the markets a hawkish message that inflation isn't beaten and the door is open for further rate hikes if necessary. The markets have taken a more dovish stance and are already looking ahead to possible rate cuts. Macklem appears to face the same challenge of acknowledging that rate hikes have cooled the economy and curbed inflation while sounding credible about keeping open the option of further rate hikes. Last week's GDP report indicated that the economy contracted by 0.2%, compared to the BoC's forecast of 1.5% growth. The BoC has hiked repeatedly in order to lower inflation but there are concerns that the rate hikes in June and July may have tilted the risk toward a recession. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to pause at the September 20th meeting. The pause could signal that rates have finally peaked, although don't expect any Fed members to publicly state that the rate-tightening cycle is over. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday that the Fed can afford to “proceed carefully” with rate hikes, given that inflation has been falling, and if the downtrend continues, "we are in pretty good condition". USD/CAD tested resistance at 1.3657 earlier. The next resistance line is 1.3721 1.3573 and 1.3509 are providing support
by OANDA
Why Silver stands out.In the ever-evolving landscape of global economics, precious metals like silver, often serve as key indicators and safe havens. This week, we'll explore the factors making silver an interesting prospect in today's market. Current Macroeconomic Indicators: The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicates a slight increase in the US for July, registering at 3.2%, up from the previous month's 3%. Predictive models from the Reserve Bank of Cleveland suggest an impending rise for the August CPI. Concurrently, the Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model projects a rise in GDP figures. Silver, Inflation & GDP: The above becomes important when historical data reveals that significant spikes in silver prices often follow periods of simultaneous rises in GDP and inflation. Notably, in years that saw increases in both indicators, silver recorded gains of 38% and 46% in 2009 and 2020, respectively. Conversely, 2002 saw a modest 2% return. Silver vs. Gold: A measure of relative value between the two major precious metals via the ratio of Silver to Gold, further substantiates the idea of a potential strength in Silver. The ratio is trading just off a trend support-turned-resistance and at the upper end of the symmetrical triangle. Resistance here can play out in the format of silver strengthening relative to gold. Yields and Silver: The longstanding inverted relationship of yield and silver can be observed in the chart, but the ratio provides some insights into the limits of this relationship. What’s immediately obvious to us post 2008 there has been a regime change in this relationship as yield grinded lower and silver remains elevated. With no immediate large catalyst on the horizon, it is likely the current regime will hold and hence, the ‘floor’ in this relationship is near. Meaning relative to current levels of yield, Silver is trading on the lower side. Equities vs ‘real’ economy: Beyond being a precious metal, silver's industrial applications—from automotive to solar panels and electronics manufacturing—make it a bellwether for the 'real' economy, akin to copper. Comparing the Nasdaq 100 against industrial metals illustrates a disparity between equities and the 'real' economy, positioning silver as significantly undervalued relative to peers like copper and gold. Positioning: Current market positions, particularly among net Non-Commercials, seem to favor silver with a growing bullish sentiment. Technical Analysis: A noteworthy observation is the persistence of the 22.5 level as a pivotal support and resistance mark for silver, a trend tracing back to the 80s. Prices currently thread above this level and remain supported by an uptrend that began in August 2022. Additionally, RSI points to oversold, and in the past 4 instances when RSI reached such levels, prices quickly rebounded thereafter. Against the above factors, we see support for Silver, on multiple fronts, such as economic cycle, relative value against equities, and underpriced when compared against gold. Hence, to express our view on Silver, we can set up a long position on the Silver Futures at the current level of 22.67 with a stop at 21.8 and take profit at 25.10 . Silver prices are quoted in U.S. dollars and cents per troy ounce and each 0.005 move is equal to 25 Dollars. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.atlantafed.org www.clevelandfed.org
COMEX:SI1!Long
by inspirante
GBP/USD dips lower as US inflation risesThe British pound showed some strength earlier on Thursday but reversed directions and lost ground after the US inflation report. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2725, up 0.05%. The US inflation report was somewhat of a mix, but most important was that both headline and core inflation were within expectations. This meant that the reaction of the US dollar was muted following the inflation release. Headline CPI climbed to 3.2% y/y in July, above the June reading of 3.0% but shy of the consensus estimate of 3.0%. This marked the first time in 13 months that headline CPI accelerated, but the upswing isn't all that significant, as it was due to base effects. Core CPI ticked lower to 4.7% y/y in July, down from 4.8% in June. The Fed will be encouraged by the fact that on a monthly basis, both headline and core CPI posted a very modest gain of 0.2%, matching the estimate and unchanged from June. Inflation has fallen sharply in recent months, but the Fed will find it more difficult to bring core inflation down to the 2% target. The sharp drop in energy prices has sent headline CPI lower, but the core rate excludes food and energy prices. Inflation is being driven by services and wages, which explains why core CPI is so much higher than headline CPI. The inflation report has cemented the Fed holding rates in September, barring a huge surprise. The odds of a pause have risen to 90%, up from 86% prior to the inflation report, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Fed may well be done with the current rate-tightening cycle, but don't expect to hear that from anyone at the Fed, which does not want the markets to become too complacent about inflation. The UK will post preliminary GDP on Friday. The consensus estimate stands at 0.1% q/q for the second quarter. If GDP misses the estimate and falls into negative territory, investors could get nervous and send the pound lower. Conversely, if GDP beats the estimate, the pound could gain ground. The Bank of England will be watching carefully, as it digests key economic data ahead of the next meeting on September 21st. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2747. The next resistance line is 1.2874  1.2622 and 1.2495 are providing support
by OANDA
Cracking the Crack SpreadThe ‘crack spread’ is a term used in the oil industry that refers to the differential between the price of crude oil and the petroleum products extracted from it, such as gasoline and heating oil. The name comes from the process of 'cracking' crude oil in a refinery to produce these valuable products. The spread serves as a measure of refining margin, or profitability, for oil refineries. When the prices of petroleum products are high relative to the price of crude oil, the crack spread widens, and refining margins increase, making it profitable for refineries. Conversely, when the price of crude oil is high relative to the products, the crack spread narrows, and refining can become less profitable or even unprofitable. The crack spread is typically expressed in terms of the ratio between the input (crude oil) and the outputs (refined products). For example, a 3:2:1 crack spread assumes that three barrels of crude oil can produce two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of heating oil. In the futures market, the crack spread can be traded by buying crude oil futures and selling futures in its products, thus locking in the margin between input and output prices. This can serve as a form of hedging against price risk for those involved in the oil industry. This week, we will delve into various factors influencing the crack spread and evaluate their potential impact on the current spread; Geopolitical Concerns SPR Refill One of the key points mentioned when we last covered oil was the potential refills of the SPR which are still pending as an attempt to purchase up to 6 million barrels was abandoned at the last minute. As the drawdown in the SPR continues, it seems inevitable that the Biden administration will have to replenish the reserve, likely pushing oil prices higher due to increased demand. Russia Ukraine escalation The simmering tensions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict leave us wondering if the price of crude oil might escalate further. The ongoing conflict focuses on a key port in the Black Sea. Consequently, this could potentially impact up to 20% of oil exports from Russia. Although most major nations no longer rely on Russia for oil supply, some countries are still buying from Russia. This leads to the concern that such countries might have to turn to the open market to make up for their supply shortage one day. Seasonality Crack falls in the 2nd half of the year Seasonal trends indicate a pattern where the 3:2:1 crack spread declines in the second half of the year. This trend has persisted for 6 out of the past 10 years, with the average decline of 29%. Three of the remaining four years closed flat, with one year ending approximately 20% higher. Economic Growth Current economic growth weak but some soft landing expected The year-on-year GDPs for major economies are trailing their long-term averages, indicating still fragile economic growth as industries and consumers grapple with sticky inflation and high rates. Weak economic growth generally dampens the crack spread, as industries and consumers cut back on spending, reducing the demand for refined products. Currency Interplay Between Dollar, Crude, and Crack Spread The Inverse Dollar and Crude Oil has as long-standing positive correlation up until the Russian-Ukraine Crisis when both Crude Oil and the dollar move sharply higher. As this relationship now begins to normalize again, any weakness in the dollar could provide the fuel for Crude & the Crack Spread to rally again. The crack spread is also highly correlated with Crude Oil outright prices, hence any view on crude oil can also be expressed using the Crack Spread. The crack spread hit an all-time high in June 2022 amidst the Russia-Ukraine tensions. Currently, the spread trades at a higher range relative to the past two decades and seems to face some resistance at the previous all-time high in 2013. On a shorter timeframe, the crack spread appears to be breaking out of a symmetrical triangle to the upside, typically a signal of bullish continuation. With prices slightly dipping, this could present an enticing opportunity. On balance the impending risk of the geopolitical event breaking out as well as the structurally weakening dollar seems to outweigh the seasonality and economic weakness effect. To express our view on the 3:2:1 crack spread, we can set up a long position on the crack spread. This can be set up by buying 2 RBOB Gasoline Futures & 1 NY Harbor ULSD Futures and selling 3 Crude Oil Futures at the current level of 114.5, stop loss at 97 and take profit at 140. The calculation of the 3:2:1 crack spread should also be noted as: (2 * RBOB Gasoline Futures + 1 * NY Harbor ULSD Futures ) * 42 – (3 * Crude Oil Futures). The factor 42 is multiplied to the RBOB Gasoline Futures and NY Harbor ULSD Futures as the two are quoted in USD per gallon, this converts the price quotation in Barrel terms, which is the same as Crude Oil Futures. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.eia.gov www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by inspirante
2
EUR/USD rebounds after sharp lossesThe euro has bounced back on Friday after sliding 0.99% a day earlier. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1018, up 0.38%. On the economic calendar, the US PCE Price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, fell to 3.0% in June, down from 3.8% in May. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday, bringing the main rate to 3.75%. The ECB statement warned that inflation, although on the decline, "is expected to remain too high for too long". The ECB did not provide any forward guidance, as the statement said the Governing Council would base its decisions on the data. ECB President Lagarde didn't add much to this stance, saying that ECB members were "open-minded" about rate decisions at upcoming meetings and wouldn't commit to whether the ECB would raise or pause in September. The rate increase can be described as a 'hawkish hike', as the statement kept the door open for further hikes. Nevertheless, the euro lost ground following the decision, which could reflect expectations that the ECB is close to its peak rate, despite the hawkish rhetoric. The eurozone economy is struggling, and this week's Services PMIs pointed to weakness in Germany and France, the biggest economies in the bloc. The eurozone could slip into recession this year, which means that the ECB will have to think carefully before its raises rates. On the other side of the coin, inflation, which is the ECB's number one priority, is at 5.5%, well above the target of 2%. The eurozone releases the July inflation report on Monday and the reading could be a key factor in the ECB's rate decision at the September meeting. The euro lost further ground on Thursday after better-than-expected US data. In the second quarter, GDP rose 2.4% q/q, above the Q1 reading of 2.0% and the consensus estimate of 1.8%. US Durable Goods Orders and unemployment claims were better than expected, a further indication that the Fed may be able to guide the economy to a soft landing even with interest rates at their highest levels in 22 years. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.1002. The next resistance line is 1.1063 There is support at 1.0895 and close by at 1.0861
by OANDA
Return To BaseA "back to the basics" analysis. Let's leave behind the stock markets and look at the slow and deep fundamentals of the worldwide economy. Today I will attempt to make a simple analysis using GDP. This is the net profit of one country. The miracle of China caught the West in the sleep. It outperformed the largest economy of the world. And by incredible speeds. Many use the "stochastic" indicator, and rightfully so. The word stochastic may be coming from the Greek word "stochasmos" which means "thought process". To get a new perspective on these charts we must let nature think for us objectively. The mind of nature spoke. The miracle of China is fading. And the same happens when compared to the "treasure" called Taiwan. Many are willing to fight for it. For experimentation, let's compare the US with the Eurozone. For some unknown-to-me reason, GDP has embedded in it the relative strength of currencies between the two countries. Do note that all GDP is measured in USD. In a sense, relative GDP growth is another way of comparing currency strength. We have gone from comparing equities, to comparing GDP. We concluded that comparing GDP is simply comparing purchasing power of two countries. Currency strength comes from yield rates. The power is given from those who make and define money. Supply + Yields. Power = Money Supply * Money Strength MV = PQ Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. You want to see an Easter Egg? Consider the following equations: MV = PQ Q = GDP M = M2SL V = FRED:M2V P = "price level" 1 / P = "currency strength" Currency Strength = Q / MV In the end, it is up to the FED to decide the future.
FRED:GDP
by akikostas
USD/CAD pares gains, Canadian inflation easesThe Canadian dollar is flat on Friday, trading at 1.3258 in the European session. Canada releases GDP for May later on Friday. The consensus stands at 0.2% m/m, which translates into 2.4% annualized, a respectable gain. If the GDP report beats the consensus, the Canadian dollar could post gains. Canada's economy showed strength in the first quarter, with a gain of 3.1%. This was higher than expected and was one reason cited by the Bank of Canada in its surprise decision to raise rates earlier this month. I would expect that GDP growth will again be a key factor when the BoC makes its rate decision at the July 12th meeting. The BoC, like most other major central banks, has aggressively tackled high inflation by raising interest rates. The policy appears to be working, as headline inflation eased to 3.4% in May, down sharply from 4.4% in April. The core rate, which is comprised of three indicators, fell to an average of 3.8% in May, down from 4.2% a month earlier. The drop in inflation is certainly welcome news for the central bank, but the key question is whether inflation is falling fast enough for BoC policy makers. A third factor in the BoC's decision-making process will be employment. Canada's labour market has shown strong resilience in the face of rising interest rates, although the economy shed jobs in May, after eight straight months of gains. Another decline in new jobs could dampen the Bank's appetite for a rate hike in July. The US is coming off solid GDP and jobless claims data on Thursday and all eyes are on the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's favourite inflation gauge. The index is expected to remain at 4.7% y/y, which would mean that inflation remains uncomfortably high compared to the target of 2%. We'll also get a look at UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to rise to 63.9 in June, up from 59.2 in May. USD/CAD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.3254. Next, there is resistance at 1.3328 1.3175 and 1.3066 are providing support
by OANDA
2
QQQ Outlook 0626-30/2023Technical Analysis: Last week’s price action put NASDAQ:QQQ back inside the bullish channel we’ve been watching since March. We should see come corrective price action this week before tech runs higher. Bulls will look to see if we can stay above last week’s lows at 360. It is crucial bulls hold this level or we could see the daily fair value gap that could be filled below at 357.66. Bears will want to see a breakdown under the daily fair value gap, where we could test the strong monthly level at 354.43. If we lose the levels above, we can look for a test of the lower trendline in the upcoming weeks, and possibly a large gap to fill to the downside from 336.67-332.91. Inside this gap is the 50SMA and the 61.8% retrace at 334.00. Upside Targets: 364.57 → 370.10 → 373.83 → 380.76 → 386.28 Downside Targets: 360.00 → 358.97 → 357.66 → 354.43 → 352.46
NASDAQ:QQQ
by peterjames_6
SPY Outlook 06/26-30/2023Last week’s newsletter, we leaned bearish and the market made lower lows 4 out of the 4 trading sessions. With more fed speakers this week, PCE and Consumer Confidence data releases, and political turmoil in Russia, uncertainty can cause volatility in the market bringing down equities. Technical Analysis: AMEX:SPY is still due for a retest of the bull flag and daily channel breakout around 429.57. Should this area not hold, a .618 retrace would suggest we pullback to the gap below at 424-423. I do think we revisit that, and possibly test the daily fair value gap below 419. Bulls will want price action to stay above the weekly 432.03 level. If this holds, we can target the gap above at 437.45-438.97. Bears will want to try and and break below the red uptrend trendline. If we cannot hold 432.03, we can target the previous bull flag breakout at 429.61. If that doesn’t hold, we could target the 50% retracement where we bullflagged in the beginning of the month around 426.70. An even deeper target is the the daily gap below at 423.95-422.92. Should this gap fill, I would flip long. Upside Targets: 436.00 → 437.45→ 438.97 → 441.21 → 443.90 Downside Targets: 432.03 → 429.61 → 428.78 → 426.70 → 425.14
AMEX:SPY
by peterjames_6