XAUUSD Channel Down turning into Inverse H&S?Gold (XAUUSD) emphatically smashed the bullish target we set 2 weeks ago (see chart below) and made a standard Lower High at the top of the 5-month Channel Up:
The price also hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in the process and that is a technical sell, with which we will target 1890 (just above Symmetrical Support 2). Since however the October 06 rebound was initiated on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), it may not just be a Channel Down Lower Low but a long-term market bottom and the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern. A Bullish Cross completion on the 1W MACD, will largely confirm that.
Being a technical bullish reversal pattern, the IH&S typically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, so 2095 is our long-term target. But on the shorter term, if the price breaks above 1953.50 (Resistance 1), we will target 1987 (just below Resistance 2).
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GC1! (Gold Futures)
GOLD → A counter-trend correction is forming. Panic zone OANDA:XAUUSD has been forming a correction since the opening of the session and has reached the area of 1910. The price enters the panic zone relative to 1914. What should we expect from gold next?
The correction on the background of a strong surge of energy and distributive movement should have happened. The market should pull back and gather potential before further upside. The price is testing the 1914.15 area for a breakout. The price is trading in the panic zone, where there are a lot of buyers' bids and sellers' bids are formed. A false break of the level will give us an impulse to 1928.8 and then to 1946. But, if the market consolidates below 1914.15, the correction may continue towards 1905 and 1900, but before further growth. The upward movement in the medium term may continue, for this price will have to overcome 1914, 1928 and 1946, At the moment we are waiting for the price to find support before further growth.
Support levels: 1905, 1900, 1895, SMA
Resistance levels: 1914, 1928, 1946
In the future I expect the continuation of growth, but only after the end of counter-trend correction
COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
Gold futures eyes $2,577 in acceleration of upside impulseA pullback in yellow wave (2) almost hit 61.8% of yellow wave (1).
Now we see the strong minor impulse to the upside.
It can be a part of large yellow wave (3).
The target is projected at the distance of 1.618x of wave (1) with aim at $2,577.
Watch how price breaks above the top of wave (1) beyond $2,086
Risk/reward is 1:2.5, one could get it better if goes on a lower time frame and buys on
minor pullback following minor wave 1 of (3).
Do you see gold futures touching $2,577?
Is the Downtrend Nearing its End?Last Friday, on October 13th, a significant white candle with exceptionally high volume was observed, possibly driven by two catalysts:
– Escalating geopolitical conflicts.
– A decrease in CPI, leading to market expectations of a potential halt in rate increases by the Fed.
Trend
– A large white candle with exceptionally high volume touched the upper boundary of the downtrend channel.
– Let's observe if the market can sustain its bullish momentum next week and breach the downtrend channel.
Symmetrical Projection: Breaking the Downtrend “N” Pattern
– The 100% price projection from the initial swing starting at the 2nd lower high has been achieved.
– Furthermore, the price has already surpassed the 100% projection of the pullback, indicating the possible termination of the downtrend pattern.
– After this breach, we can expect either a reversal in the trend or a sideways movement.
Conclusion
– An uptrend is more likely to occur based on the two situations mentioned just now:
A large bullish candle with exceptionally high volume is on the verge of breaking the downtrend channel.
The downtrend N pattern has been disrupted.
Preparation for the Possible Uptrend Scenario
– Instead of simply jumping into the breakout, I will be waiting for a retest before getting on board.
– Potential retest levels: Some key Fibonacci retracement levels from the lowest low (A) to the previous high (B) (assuming the previous high is the initial target price of the upward move).
The 0.236 level: close to the key level at 1969.
The 0.382 level: close to the high of the second pullback of the downtrend.
The 0.5 level
Not Financial Advice
The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
GOLD → Hammer + Bullish Engulfing +Resistance breakout OANDA:XAUUSD increases daily volatility by more than 3% for the first time in 6 months. Friday's opening-to-close session overcomes 3.4% and $63.53. A complex yet obvious situation is taking shape. Let's get a handle on what's going on and what to expect next
In the coming week, important news is published. Worth paying attention to:
Core Retail Sales & Reatil Sales
Initial Jobless Claims, FED Chair Powell Speaks
I don't think that the news of the coming week will change the fundamental background of gold, because in times of crisis and instability, the metal attracts a lot of investor interest, as we can see from the price and volume indicator.
On the weekly chart, we see an interesting candlestick pattern: hammer + bullish engulfing on retest of the strong medium-term support at 1809. In tandem with a strong fundamental background, this pattern, also on a high timeframe, plays an important role in medium and long term pricing. On D1 we see a breakout of the downtrend resistance and Friday's close near the 1934 level. The price close indicates to us that the level will be broken in the near term and gold will continue its active movement towards 1950, 1984, 2000.
The conflict in the Middle East will not end quickly, no matter how much we would like it to. What is happening now is the development of what has been accumulating for many years. Consequently, we can conclude that against the background of everything that is happening. both in the world and on the chart, the growth of gold is only gaining momentum. The trend is broken
Outlook: Monday may open with a gap in the futures market. A pullback to the downside before further growth is also not excluded. Medium-term growth may continue, in the nearest future the market may test 2000, then 2050
COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
GC1! Gold Futures Short setup I present to you a possible scenario going into the weeks ahead .
Gold finished Friday 13 Oct very strong with a move that no doubt destroyed many whom were taken by surprise with the aggressive move out of 1880 back up to 1945 in one trading session .
The question is what's next? Well no one has the exact answer but here is a possible scenario which could be on the cards . I would not be surprised to see a small pull back and all the shorts to pile in trying to sell the top before getting trapped/destroyed with another move up towards $1970 taking out the sept 20 high/liquidity before a much bigger move to the downside.
To give my chart the uncongested cleanest look , I have removed some of the levels inside of the Fib Channel to make it easier on the eye .
Above we have a High volume Node+ Liquidity and the golden pocket + Fib Channel as confluences .
I will be expecting a reaction at this region and will act accordingly .
More data will be required to determine if this is to be another LH on the HTF or a deep RT and continuation to the upside .
Set alerts at the given region and manage your SL in accordance with your trading plan and appetite for risk.
Like and follow for more setups like this and check out my previous analysis on Gold
GOLD → The market is targeting 0.618 fibo ($1895) OANDA:XAUUSD is entering the empty range from 1885 to 1915. The only level the market will still be able to interact with, before reaching the 1915 target, is in the 1895 area - a strong liquidity area
Today we see a break of the resistance at 1885 after a small retest. A momentum is formed, which tells us about a further target in the form of 1895 resistance, formed back in June 2023. It is worth paying attention to this area, because here is also 0.618 Fibo, which is an important level for the market. Since there are no important areas of resistance and liquidity in the whole range of 1885 - 1915 except this zone, it is here that some struggle on the market may take place and a correction to the support may be formed before further growth.
The market now has a strong fundamental component (economic news, crisis and war) - all this increases the interest to the metal, but it should be understood that the market cannot grow all the time, sometimes it will fall (correction). SMA 1H - strong support, and 4H - MA-200 will be tested in the medium term (in the area of 0.618 fibo)
Support levels: 1885
Resistance levels: 1895, local ascending line, SMA200
I expect continuation of growth to the mentioned resistance area from which a correction to support may follow before further growth to 1915
OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Strong bullish trend feels no resistance OANDA:XAUUSD does not react to the nuances of technical analysis and is actively growing. But, the growth is accompanied by a consolidation moment, which can become a lever for further rsot. Even against the background of the trend, the price is able to accumulate potential
The breakthrough of resistance 1877.6 is formed and the price aspires to the important level for the medium-term perspective - 1885. Most likely, with the current fundamental features, the level will be broken in the near future, but before that a correction or a retest of the support before further growth may follow.
There are a number of important news for the US market today. Worth paying attention to: Core CPI, CPI, Initial Jobless Claims. Lately there is more news about inflation stabilization, but it is not enough for the medium and long term. In any case, this is more positive news for the market. For gold, this is a positive nuance as the TVC:DXY will continue on a localized downward course
Resistance levels: 1885, rising line
Support levels: 1878.6, 1877,6, 1872.7
In the long term, I expect a correction from 1885 and the formation of a retest back to the level for further breakout of the resistance zone
COMEX_MINI:MGC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:GC1! CAPITALCOM:US500
Regards R. Linda!
🥇GOLD - Range resistance is the target Gold updates the high to 1874. Yesterday I pointed out the bullish pattern - the market is in the realization phase and gives us a 150pips rise, but we haven't reached the target yet
TA on the high timeframe:
1) Strong bullish trend continues. Against the background of the crisis in the world, the interest in gold is only increasing
2) The medium-term target has not been reached yet. The growth will continue
TA on the low timeframe:
1) A small pullback may follow before jumping to 1877.7.
2) After reaching 1877.7, I expect a false breakdown followed by a decline, most likely to the support of the mentioned range - 1857.
3) Short-term target is 1877, then 1857. And what will happen next, we will follow the price reaction to these zones.
Key resistance📈: 1877.7
Key support📉: 1866, 1857
GOLD → The market is aimed at resistance retest OANDA:XAUUSD enters the 1857-1877 range, consolidates above the support and makes a new jump. Yesterday I talked about strong fundamentals, relative to technical analysis and what we see is a breakout of said resistance.
Today PPI - one of the inflation indicators is published and at 18:00 GMT FOMC Meeting Minutes - most likely the information trend of previous periods will be preserved. At the same time TVC:DXY is in the phase of correction to the support area, the publication of bullish news for the dollar may resume further growth of the index, which will partly affect the gold. In the nearest future the market may test the resistance of 1877, after which the price may roll back to the support. In the long term, the market may trade inside the sideways range to determine the further scenario, but it should be understood that gold is bought up during the war. In the absence of further escalation of the conflict, the price may decline, but not significantly: the longer-term factor - expectations of the end of the Fed rate hike cycle - is also having an impact.
Resistance levels: 1874, 1877.5
Support levels: 1857.7
In the future, I expect a retest of resistance and subsequent rebound with further forging of the sideways range
OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! OANDA:XAGUSD TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:US500
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Fundamental is stronger than the technical part OANDA:XAUUSD is making a new jump. Actually, we talked about it yesterday. Geopolitics affects the interest in gold and the price of the metal. The trend resistance is broken and the price changes the local trend.
Let's take a look at the D1 chart . There is a rather interesting and at the same time controversial situation, in which fundamental factors can be stronger than technical ones.
The price is approaching the retest of a strong resistance line, which has 5 serious confirmations over the last year and a half, so we should wait for a fall when this line is retested.
BUT! At the same time we have strong fundamental factors, on the side of which are such technical nuances as: local consolidation, resistance breakout and candlestick pattern, which hint at further growth.
Also, on the D1, the price breaks the level of 1856.4 and on Monday the session closes above this area. On the local chart, the price breaks up, updates the local high and forms a retest of the range support. By the way, relative to this support, I expect the entry point forging. The price closing above one of the mentioned lines will give us a bullish potential
Support levels: 1857.7, 1856,4, 1846,3
Resistance levels: 1863.7, 1877.56
In the long term I expect the growth to continue, but after a local correction. Targets are indicated on the chart.
OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:SI1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
🥇GOLD - A reversal pattern. Key level 1857GOLD is forming a reversal pattern that changes the local trend. At the moment, for the market to continue the growth scenario, we are interested in the level of 1857.7. If gold can hold this level, we will see the realization of the pattern and growth to 1877 and to 1901.
TA on the high timeframe:
1) Price inside the range 1875 - 1815. But resistance has not been reached yet. 1875 area is the actual target at the moment
2) A strong pullback is being formed, the target of which may be the area of 1885-1890.
TA on low timeframe:
1) A reversal pattern " Cup with a handle" is being formed. Exit beyond the resistance of the local consolidation will give us growth and realization of the setup.
2) Flat support retest of 1857 is forming.
3) I am waiting for price consolidation above. It is necessary to confirm that the market is ready for growth.
Key support📉: 1855-1854, 1845
Key resistance📈: 1866, 1873, 1877
🥇GOLD - The market may strengthen the price GOLD has been rising since the opening. The reason is the conflict in the Middle East and the fundamental factors of last week.
Consolidation is forming and most likely the price may test the support before further growth.
TA on the timeframe:
1) The reason for the rise today is the geopolitical factor. And as we know, in all crisis situations there is a growing interest in gold.
2) False breakout of strong 0.5 fibo level. FB may be followed by strong growth
TA on the low timeframe:
1) Price is consolidating in a narrow range. Most likely a strong impulse may be followed by a retest of 0.5 fibo support
2) At the moment people still do not know what to do and are preparing to buy gold, but before further growth the market can fool the player and take out stoplosses, which are below 1846.
3) waiting for a rise to 1878
Key support📉: 1846, 1840
Key resistance📈: 1853
gold 4hour = down move not end, wave 2 will comescheck AC daily , it showed last crash
I think gold will go downer ,then will sta4t up trend
above Fino 61% I will buy (near 10.000$) and hold it min 1 month
if you have old buys, 100% hedge them under red arrow ( never close hedge order first)
save in your mind = for 1000 time I say you don't inter gold without pinbar(1h,4h,daily chart) verfy and must must must put SL at pinbar ... . if you don't put/eat SL ,you will margin cal and 0.00 soon or late, SL is base of this game
I want you win and profit