Gbpusdshort
Inflation is moving in the right direction. Forecast of GBP fallThe trading opportunities widen next week as we see more corporates report earnings, but the event which Warren Venketas, from Daily FX, is watching is UK inflation. As he says, this will go some way to helping the markets assess the potential for another Bank of England rate increase at its 2 November meeting. The trade to watch is a short GBP/USD position, targeting $1.20 support.
GBPUSD 1D AnalysisAfter GBPUSD experienced a price rejection from the trendline last week, coupled with a bearish engulfing candle, I anticipate the price to reach the support level at 1.20413. At that point, we may witness a price reversal, or if the support is broken, it could signal a bearish continuation down to 1.18159 support level.
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GBP/USD Reverses - Short Trading SignalGBP/USD Short Trading Opportunity
1. The price closed below the Trend Magic Indicator line.
2. US Dollar Index DXY uptrend continues.
3. Vortex indicates downtrend signal.
4. Retail trader data shows 72% of traders are net-long. Strong contrarian short signal.
SL - above the Trend Magic Indicator line or Vortex indicator change trend signal
TP1 - 1.2040
TP2 - 1.1810
Keep It Simple and Always Trade With the Trend!
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GBPUSD continue on downtrendThe trend doesn't seem to break or stopping anywhere soon. The support is just broken. It will range for few days in the marked zone and then continue down. Take your profit 5-10 pips before the last support marked on the chart. Range traders, you got few days to play with. Good luck everyone.
GBPUSD Technical Forecast and Trading StrategyWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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GBPUSD 4H : Below 1.2173 will be downtrend GBPUSD
New forecast
The pound sterling pair against the dollar continued to decline, putting pressure on the 1.2192 barrier. We expect the bearish tendency to continue and achieve negative targets starting with testing the 1.2108 level and 1.2062.
Let us continue to favor the bearish bias during the coming sessions, supported by resistance 1.2173 that formed recently so the main condition to continue at the bearish trend is stabilized below 1.2173 the Keeping in mind that breaching 1.2192 will stop the negative scenario and push the price to return to the upward corrective path again.
The expect range trading for today it will be between the resistance line 1.2192 and support line 1.2108.
Additionally ,Today News will affect the market .
support line : 1.2173 , 1.2108
resistance line : 1.2192 , 1.2247
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Dollar falls before US releases inflation data; UK recorded GDP Minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting, released on Wednesday, indicated that most central bank policymakers agreed that another rate hike would be "appropriate" when Inflation continues to trend higher than target.
The minutes also pointed out the uncertainties surrounding the economy and the need to proceed carefully in assessing the impact to have appropriate policies.
The weeks following the September meeting saw Treasury yields rise sharply, and this was seen by some Fed officials as a factor that could allow them to end the rate-hike cycle, to the detriment of US currency.
Analysts at ING said yields continued to adjust lower on expectations the Fed would refrain from raising interest rates again. “However, we suspect that further bond hikes could cause yields to rise again and limit USD losses.”
OANDA:GBPUSD BUY 1.2190-1.2200❌
✔️TP: 1.2230
❌SL: 1.2150
The British pound crosses resistance The British pound against the dollar pair was able to penetrate the level of 1.2297 and close the daily candle above it, which effectively supports the continuation of the expected bullish trend scenario during the coming sessions, paving the way for heading toward our next positive target at 1.23761.
The Stochastic indicator is now providing positive signals that support the chances of achieving more gains during the coming sessions, keeping in mind that breaking 1.2297 will stop the expected rise and put pressure on the price to turn lower.
The expected trading range for today is between support 1.2090 and Resistance 1.2399
The general trend expected for today: Bullish
GBPUSD - Bearish continuation ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on GBPUSD.
Technical analysis: Here we are on profit, as I said in my previous analysis price filled the imbalance and rejected from bearish order block. I see price to go lower to take sell side liquidity
Fundamental analysis: This week we have a lot of news on USD, on Wednesday will be released monthly PPI followed by FOMC Meeting and on Thursday monthly and yearly CPI. I expect we can see a decrease on CPI, which means strength of currency. As well, on Thursday will be released monthly GDP on GBP, if the result is lower than forecasted it means weakness of currency.
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GBPUSD 4H OUTLOOK GBPUSD
Analyze
If a price can stable above 1.2243 the direction will be uptrend again to reach 1.2298 , 1.2343, 1.2372
For any reason if the price backs off and stable under 1.2243 , the price will try to reach 1.22050 If can break it then will reach 1.2160 and 1.2123
Support line:1.22050 ,1.2160 ,1.2123
resistance line: 1.2298 ,1.2343,1.2372
GBPUSD strategiesOn Monday (October 9), GBP/USD closed at 1.2236, basically the same as last Friday's closing price, but the intraday low fell back to 1.2161. Although the market still predicts that the Bank of England will not raise interest rates further, data and events released in the UK last week may affect market expectations. Whether we can continue to raise interest rates remains to be seen how economic data from the UK performs. The rebound of the pound in the past few trading days is only a technical adjustment for the time being. Whether the British pound can completely reverse its decline still depends on the performance of the US dollar. In terms of technical graphics, the pound is still under pressure against the US dollar, just like the euro, and the overall trend is still in a downward channel. However, various technical indicators showed signs of oversold turning, which seemed to indicate a rebound to adjust the trading rhythm. In the near future, pay attention to the resistance in the 1.2260-1.2300 price area above. If it can be broken through, driven by the rebound potential, GBP/USD may be expected to rise higher.
GBPUSD 4H maintains its positive stability GBPUSD
The pound sterling pair against the dollar focused on the breached resistance of the descending channel and rebounded upward to resume the expected upward corrective path in the immediate term.
stabilizing above 1.2172 will support rising to touch 1.2233 then 1.2280 then 1.2328
stabilizing under 1.2124 will support falling to touch 1.2095 then 1.2069
The expected trading range for today is between support 1.2035 and Resistance 1.2233
pivot price: 1.2172
Resistance prices: 1.2233 & 1.2280 & 1.2328
Support prices: 1.2095 & 1.2069 & 1.2035
The expected trading range for today is between support 1.2124 and resistance 1.2233
The general trend expected for today: bullish
timeframe: 4H
GBPUSD LONG TERM BUY IDEAHello Traders
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GBPUSD 4H : Support further decline GBPUSD
New forecast
The price perfectly fulfills my last idea and price reached to our target .
The GBP/USD pair presented Negative trades today, as it tried to break the 1.2173 level to holding below it again, waiting for the bearish bias to resume to test the bearish resistance around 1.2122 as the next main target.
Therefore, the downward trend scenario will remain effective for the coming period, supported by the bearish trend, keeping in mind that breaking 1.2192 and stabilized above it will stop the expected decline and put pressure on the price to rise again.
The expect range trading for today it will be between the resistance line 1.2192 and support line 1.2122.
support line : 1.2122 , 1.2108
resistance line : 1.2173 , 1.2192
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
GBP/USD Faces Pressure Amid Israel-Hamas Conflict and Economic..GBP/USD Faces Pressure Amid Israel-Hamas Conflict and Economic Challenges
The Pound Sterling (GBP) experienced a downturn, dropping below 1.22 against the US Dollar (USD) as geopolitical tensions escalated due to the Israel-Hamas conflict. This development has contributed to a risk-averse market sentiment, impacting the GBP's performance. Additionally, the UK faces economic challenges, particularly in its manufacturing and construction sectors, as higher mortgage rates create uncertainty.
Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on GBP:
The GBP/USD pair saw a significant decline on Monday as the Israel-Hamas conflict heightened the risk-aversion theme in the market. This geopolitical tension, which began over the weekend, added pressure to the Pound Sterling. Investors are closely monitoring the situation as it unfolds, as it has implications for market sentiment and risk appetite.
UK Economic Challenges Persist:
Apart from the geopolitical concerns, the UK is grappling with economic challenges. The manufacturing and construction sectors are currently vulnerable due to higher mortgage rates, which have impacted demand and borrowing costs. As a result, UK businesses are cautious about raising funds, leading to reduced labor demand and overall economic output. The situation is expected to persist, with the Bank of England (BoE) committed to maintaining restrictive interest rates until inflation reaches its target of 2%.
US Jobs Data and Fed Expectations:
In contrast to the UK, the United States is experiencing a more robust economic outlook. The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, released on Friday, revealed the addition of 336,000 jobs in September, surpassing market estimates. This data reaffirms expectations for at least one more interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) before the year-end. The prospect of higher interest rates has boosted US Treasury bond yields, providing support to the USD.
However, it's worth noting that wage growth remained moderate during the same month, alleviating some concerns about inflationary pressures. This development may allow the Fed to adopt a less hawkish stance, depending on upcoming economic data and events.
Looking Ahead:
Investors are closely monitoring key events this week, including the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and US consumer inflation figures. These releases will provide insights into the Fed's future policy decisions and influence the USD's trajectory, subsequently impacting the GBP/USD pair.
Furthermore, expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain its current interest rates in November are likely to limit significant upside potential for the British Pound (GBP). As geopolitical tensions persist and economic challenges persist in the UK, the GBP/USD pair remains under scrutiny by traders and investors.
Our preference
Short positions below 1.23075 with targets at 1.21100 & 1.2005 in extension.
GBP/USD Consolidates Gains Ahead of Key US NFP ReportGBP/USD Consolidates Gains Ahead of Key US NFP Report
The GBP/USD pair is currently treading water in the Asian session, consolidating its recent robust recovery from the 1.2035 area, which marked its lowest level since March 16 earlier this week. With traders on the sidelines, the focus is firmly on the impending release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, a pivotal event that could significantly influence market sentiment and currency movements.
NFP's Influence on Market Expectations
The NFP report, widely watched by investors, carries significant weight in shaping expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future interest rate decisions. The outcome of this report is expected to impact the US Dollar (USD) and provide fresh direction to the GBP/USD pair. Forecasts suggest that the US economy likely added 170,000 jobs in September, a modest decline from the 187,000 reported in August. Simultaneously, the jobless rate is expected to dip from 3.8% to 3.7% for the reported month.
A Stronger NFP Report's Implications
A stronger NFP report, while indicating healthy job growth, may exert upward pressure on wages and inflation. This scenario could compel the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance and keep interest rates higher for an extended period. Such an outcome could provide renewed strength to the USD and potentially cap the GBP/USD pair's gains.
Mixed Labor Market Data
As traders brace for the NFP release, it has been a week marked by mixed labor market data. The monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for August showed higher-than-expected job openings, while private payroll numbers from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report fell short of market expectations. Additionally, Thursday's data revealed a slight increase in Weekly Jobless Claims compared to the previous week, albeit slightly below expectations. Overall, these figures align with expectations of robust economic growth in the US for the third quarter. Furthermore, several Fed officials have voiced support for at least one more 25 basis points rate hike by year-end.
Divergent Fed-BoE Policy Expectations
The prospects of further policy tightening by the Fed have kept US Treasury bond yields elevated and supported the USD. This has contributed to halting the corrective pullback in the USD this week, despite its strong performance year-to-date. In contrast, market expectations are leaning towards the Bank of England (BoE) leaving interest rates unchanged at its upcoming November meeting. This divergence in central bank policies further acts as a restraint on the GBP/USD pair's upside potential.
Waiting for Confirmation
Given the prevailing market dynamics and uncertainties, traders are exercising caution and waiting for strong follow-through buying before confirming that GBP/USD has established a near-term bottom. Such confirmation would set the stage for a potential extension of the recent robust recovery that has spanned the last two trading days.
Conclusion
The GBP/USD pair is consolidating its recent gains as traders await the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls report. This release carries substantial implications for both the USD and GBP, with the potential to influence market expectations regarding future monetary policy decisions. While the current market outlook is cautiously optimistic, the NFP's outcome will likely determine the short-term direction of the GBP/USD pair.
Our preference
Short positions below 1.23075 with targets at 1.2110 & 1.2005 in extension.