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"Speculation Mounts on Early Fed Rate Cuts"Investors are increasingly hopeful about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the first half of the upcoming year, despite officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, maintaining that rate cuts are not currently on the table. Some analysts suggest a possible rate cut as early as the first quarter. Recent inflation figures and real-time forecasts indicate a noticeable economic slowdown since summer, deviating from the robust growth seen in the third quarter. Futures contracts reflect a growing belief in a rate cut within the next few months, with a 44% chance of the first cut occurring in March. If these predictions hold true, the impact on the Fed's longer-term strategy of raising interest rates could be significant, according to economists like Diane Swonk from KPMG. The Fed's two-day policy meeting this week is expected to conclude with the central bank maintaining the highest interest rates in 22 years for the third consecutive meeting. Officials will also release updated economic projections, likely indicating a faster-than-expected cooling of inflation. Despite some officials, including Powell, suggesting it's too early for rate hikes, investors believe the Fed's commitment to data-dependency may lead to early rate cuts. Powell's recent comments in Atlanta, stating no plans for rate hikes, resulted in a stock market surge as it echoed his dovish stance.
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Sustains Three-Week Rally, Holding Above 1.2550GBP/USD has rebounded to the 1.2550 level after nearing 1.2500 in the latter half of the day following a stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data of 199,000 in November. Despite the recent recovery, the pair remains on track to secure a three-week winning streak. GBP/USD may face immediate support at 1.2550-1.2560 (static level, Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% of the latest uptrend). Closing below this level in the 4-hour chart could attract technical sellers, opening up the possibility of an extended decline to 1.2500 (psychological level, static level) and 1.2470 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%). On the upside, 1.2600 (psychological level, static level) is considered a temporary resistance level before 1.2640 (50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart) and 1.2700 (static level, psychological level). GBP/USD closed positively on Thursday but failed to attract additional buyers early on Friday. The last time the pair was seen below 1.2600, with market focus shifting to the US November labor market data. Improved risk sentiment led to a loss in the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, helping GBP/USD record a small daily gain. On Friday, US stock index futures trading was mixed, suggesting investors should exercise caution. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly employment report is expected to show an increase of 180,000 in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) in November. Earlier this week, US employment-related figures indicated loosening conditions in the labor market. A disappointing NFP print below 150,000 could reaffirm the labor market recovery and immediately pressure the USD. On the other hand, a strong NFP index above 200,000 could counter market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy change starting in March and help the USD maintain its position by the end of the week. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a nearly 60% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates to 25 basis points in March.
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Holds Below 1.2600, Despite Modest Daily GainsGBP/USD rebounded to the 1.2600 level after hitting a two-week low around 1.2550 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggled to find demand on Thursday amid increasing signs of loosening conditions in the US labor market ahead of Friday's employment report. The 1.2600 level (20-period Simple Moving Average - SMA) is considered immediate resistance for GBP/USD, followed by 1.2650 (static level, 50-period SMA), and 1.2700 (static level). On the flip side, strong support lies at 1.2560, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-period SMA. If GBP/USD drops below this level and utilizes it as resistance, the next downside targets could be 1.2500 (psychological level, static) and 1.2470 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). The interplay between these support and resistance levels will likely shape the near-term movements of GBP/USD as traders monitor key technical and fundamental factors.
by Larissa-Trader
21% chance BoJ hikes rates on 19 Dec! There is currently a 21% probability that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates during its upcoming meeting on December 19. This would really send shockwaves through yen pairs on the day. Yesterday’s huge gains in the yen against the US dollar and British pound are just a glimpse of the possible volatility this action could cause. Yesterday BoJ policymakers may have suggested a potential shift away from their ultra-low interest rates. But are markets getting ahead of themselves and squinting just a little too hard into their crystal balls? Bank of Japan Governor, Kazuo Ueda mentioned that policy management would become "even more challenging from the year-end and heading into next year,". The mention of the “year-end” has led to speculation that the central bank might move away from negative interest rates at its next policy meeting. The thing is: The boJ has been dangling this possibility in front of traders ever since Ueda took up position as Governor. So, maybe a short play on the yen is still a possibility as the BoJ likely disappoints again during its next interest rate decision.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBP/USD Reverses Course Towards 1.2700 Before Weekly Close GBP/USD has extended its recovery from around 1.2600 and is approaching 1.2700 due to the weakened US Dollar. The greenback lost momentum following comments from Fed's Powell. The daily chart for the GBP/USD pair shows it trading around 1.2650 after reaching a peak of 1.2674 in the morning European session. The pair is performing well above its moving averages, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average aiming to cross the 100 and 200 SMAs, often a sign of strong buying pressure. Meanwhile, technical indicators are pulling back from overbought levels but lack downside strength, reflecting limited selling pressure. Looking ahead on the 4-hour chart, the risk seems to be diminishing. The flat 20-period SMA limits the upside around 1.2675, although the 100 SMA maintains a much gentler upward slope than the current level. Finally, technical indicators point southward, with the Momentum indicator dipping below the 100-level and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding at a neutral level. A more substantial decline could be anticipated if the exchange rate breaks below 1.2605, the immediate support level. Support levels: 1.2605, 1.2570, 1.2525 Resistance levels: 1.2680, 1.2730, 1.2780 GBP/USD is poised for a stronger stance on Friday, recovering from the Thursday low of 1.2603. Hawkish comments from Bank of England (BoE) officials have supported the British Pound. Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene stated that monetary policy would need to remain restrictive for an extended period to achieve the central bank's 2% inflation target. Greene also expressed concerns about prolonged inflation. Additionally, BoE's Jonathan Haskel noted that low unemployment rates could keep interest rates elevated. On the data front, the UK released the Nationwide House Price Index, which increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month in November, surpassing expectations. S&P Global also published the final estimate of the Manufacturing PMI for November, adjusted upwards to 47.2 from the preliminary estimate of 46.7.
by Larissa-Trader
GBPUSD Reassesses Support Levels Amidst Building Bearish MomentuThe GBPUSD pair is currently contending with downward pressure as it approaches recent lows near 1.2603. This downward move has caused the currency pair to slide below the 200-hour moving average, standing at 1.26212. Sustaining positions below this moving average may continue to empower sellers. However, there's a noteworthy support zone ranging from 1.2589 to 1.2602. A decisive break below this range could amplify the bearish sentiment. Should this occur, the next significant target for traders would be the 38.2% retracement of the November trading range, situated at 1.25240. This level holds particular significance following the prominent downtrend observed in November; breaching this retracement level is crucial to confirm seller dominance. The next downward momentum could focus on the convergence of the 100 and 200-day moving averages around 1.2475. Conversely, if the support zone between 1.2589 and 1.2602 holds firm, and prices bounce back above the 200-hour moving average at 1.26212, it could provide assurance to buyers that the short-term low might have been established. In this scenario, the next bullish target would be the 100-hour moving average at 1.26714, offering potential for a reversal in the currency pair's direction.
by Larissa-Trader
GBPJPY → Remains on the defensive despite reclaiming 185.00FX:GBPJPY recovered some ground, but it remains trading with losses of 0.31%, late in the North American session, due to risk-off impulse as investors slashed bets the US Federal Reserve would cut rates as aggressively as traders expected. The cross-pair is trading at 185.86 after hitting a daily high of 186.54. The pair dipped to a nine-day low at 185.08 before bouncing off those lows but it is hovering around the 185.80s area. That said, Monday’s price action is forming a hammer, which implies the GBP/JPY could retest higher prices. The first resistance would be the 186.00 figure, followed by the Tenkan-Sen at 186.86. Once cleared, the next resistance would be 187.00. On the other hand, a bearish resumption could happen if GBP/JPY sellers drag prices below 185.00. That would pave the way to test the Kijun-Sen at 184.71, followed by a support trendline at around 184.25/35, before falling to the 184.00 mark.
Short
by tradingconmike
Main trend for GBPJPY marketSaw a drop of more than 0.20%, with the Japanese Yen gaining strength against major currencies. Despite the pair's overall uptrend, recent price action has formed a 'double top' pattern, suggesting further confirmation is needed, with the price breaking below 184.46. Conversely, a move above the November 28 daily high of 187.87 could set the stage for the pair to test the year-to-date high at 188.80. The H1 chart shows that bulls are still dominating the market, continuously creating downward declines, challenging the nearest support zone of 186,280. The Japanese yen appreciated against major currencies and fell by more than 0.20%. Despite the pair's overall uptrend, recent price action has formed a "double top" pattern, suggesting that the price needs further confirmation below 184.46. Conversely, a rise above the intraday high of 187.87 on November 28th could be a stepping stone to test the year-to-date high of 188.80. The first half chart shows that the bulls are still in control of the market, causing continued declines and challenging the next support zone at 186,280.
Long
by NicoTradingMaster
GBP/JPY!! 29/11 DOW theory, SELL NOW⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance ⭐️ Personal comments NOVA: According to the DOWN theory, the price has formed a very beautiful H1 chart. Supports the upcoming DOWN trend ⭐️ SET UP GBPJPY PRICE: 🔥SELL GBP/JPY zone: 187.100 - 187.250 SL 187.600 TP1: 186.800 TP2: 186.500 TP3: 186.200 ⭐️ Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️ NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account - The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
Short
by Nova-Scalper
3
GBPJPYThe FX:GBPJPY retreats on Tuesday by more than 0.20%, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) appreciated further against most G8 FX currencies. Market participants estimate that central banks in developed countries would cut rates, boosting the appetite for the Yen's safe-haven status and Gold. Therefore, the pair is trading at 187.24 after hitting a daily high of 187.87. Even though the GBP/JPY remains bullish, price action during the last couple of days, has formed a ‘double top’ chart pattern, implying that lower prices are coming. Nevertheless to confirm the pattern, the cross must drop below the November 21 swing low at 184.46, but sellers must breach support levels on its way to the latter. The first support would be the Tenkan-Sen at 186.55, followed by the Senkou-Span A at 185.63. A decisive break, the pair would dive to the Kijun-Sen at 184.71, before testing the latest cycle low. Once done, the ‘double top’ chart pattern targets the 180.50 area. On the flip side, if GBP/JPY buyers reclaim the November 28 daily high at 187.87, that could open the door to challenge the year-to-date (YTD) high at 188.80.
Short
by tradingconmike
GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2600 Amid Thin Trading ConditionsGBP/USD is trading near the 1.2600 level, sustaining its recovery post the mixed U.S. PMI data on Black Friday. The pair is strengthened by a weaker U.S. Dollar and robust UK PMI data released on Thursday. Thin trading conditions may amplify GBP/USD price action. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart comfortably stays above 50 on Friday, and GBP/USD continues to trade above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting a short-term uptrend. The level at 1.2550 (static level) is marked as a pivot point. After confirming this level as support, GBP/USD could target 1.2600 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend from July to October) and 1.2670 (static level from August). On the flip side, 1.2525 (upper limit of the ascending regression channel) may be considered the first support level, followed by 1.2500 (psychological level) and 1.2450 (static level).
by Larissa-Trader