Market Bias & Top Stock Watches - 11/03/2022Bias: Bearish Grind
Top Watches: Long - PRVB, BTU, UAA, AMZN, PG, RUN, COP. Short - QCOM, ATUS, LUMN, AAPL, SNOW, FTNT, PYPL, COIN
Follow my page for daily pre-market reviews and trade ideas.
Gaps
Special Gap rules on DRV are 5/5 so far this yearBased on the 2013 publication of the Journal of Technical Analysis, first article, "Analyzing Gaps for Profitable Trading Strategies," I am noticing that you could have used these following criteria to create 5 profitable trades this year on DRV.
Look for:
A larger green candles,
red candle on day before
Green candle crosses the 10-day moving average
Above average volume
DRV is a bearish, leveraged ETF designed for shorting the U.S. Real Estate market. This might continue to yeild great trades through 2023.
Market Bias & Top Stock Watches - 10/21/2022Bias: Bearish
Top Watches: Short - PINS, VZ, RIOT, AXP, META. Long - MRNA, XOM, JNJ, PFE, ORCL
SE ~ Lower Lows incoming? Buying Opp incoming?SE, Sea Limited has been suffering massive losses ever since its peak in the fall of 2021. This massive bull run was led with the Tech & Growth Stock boom that's bubble has recently bursted through out the current Bear Market of 2022!
Sea Limited owns multiple varieties of Business in the South-Eastern Asia Region. Businesses Like :
Shopee - Ecommerce Giant
Garena - Gaming + Esports
& Much more smaller companies
Sea Limited has grown a massive amount of revenue, but has most definitely struggled with its debt and spending to make a profit.
Nonetheless, let's get to Technicals!
SE has suffered such huge losses, many wonder where is the bottom!?
My thesis for this Stock is a short / mid term short position, followed by long term accumilation.
Short : SE has 2 major gaps to still be filled from back before COVID, and the gigantic Rally that took place on SE. I see huge potential for this company's future growth, but I think more downside is to come to give SE fair value.
Along with fair value, and these gaps SE has been unable to reclaim any weekly moving averages, and the TTM_SQUEEZE Momentum Indicator shows more bearish momentum coming.
The monthly chart will get to the point of being oversold, probably near these gap fills. At these gap fill areas, and the way down would be a proper time imo to be covering short positions.
The market also seems to have some more pain ahead, and interest rates will only hurt this company and the markets more, driving the stock down fundamentally.
Long : I do believe in this company's long term outlook and performance. I do think that this will take a while to turn around... But if these gaps get filled, the Risk/Reward on SE will be favorable if the company has only grown. I am going to be extremely patient on SE but will be ready to hunt the discount if these gaps do become filled. I Will also keep my eye on the TTM_Squeeze on the MONTHLY chart, as the Monthly chart has been getting extreme momentum to the bearish side, and will look extremely oversold in the coming months with more downside.
Thesis : Short to Gaps ; Long @ Gap Fills
New low sooner or laterDirection of the market is down. We've closed through all the LG's to the downside now. External incoming.
Remember, don't be ***
GBPUSD Intraday BiasGBPUSD
Aug 10 1145H GMT+8
Bias is still Bearish. I expect Dollar index to go higer after US Core Inflation release 0830H EST.
4H Descending Channel is still intact
NY Session yesterday produced a 1H SZ (Supply Zone) and FVG (Fair Value GaP). I'm expecting London Session to fill the gap.
I expect London to take out Sellside Liquidity (Sell Stops) before the rally up the 1H FVG.
If the RR for a long setup is good, take it. Otherwise, wait for a better shorting opportunity at the 1H FVG/SZ. Target is an Longterm Lower Low.
Bullish Cypher/Shark on IntelIntel has Recovered a Downside Gap on the Daily and in the process of doing so has also created a Gap down and left a huge Gap yet to be Recover to the Upside. Suspiciously this has all happned near the Pattern Completion Zone of this Potential Bullish Cypher and leads me to believe that this is where intel will begin a Bullish rally to take us to the $50-$60 area.
The Archegos GapHard rejection from what I call the Archegos Gap.
The Archegos gap is a gap up created in SPY during a rally after the infamous HF collapsed and the FEDs RRP which is still climbing to historic levels.
The gap was finally closed in May, only to open a gap down in June that was just barely filled last Friday before selling off to where we are now.
I had a bullish outlook for tech earnings this month until I realized the indexes are doing the exact same song and dance this quarter as it did in April.
That is to say, a strong market rally off the FED pivot prior to the big ERs.
The FED is desperate to lower inflation which touched even higher during the last CPI print.
Hiring freezes are turning into cuts. SHOP is laying off 10% of its workforce today.
I should have seen it coming because I applied for a position at SHOP a few weeks ago and didn’t even get a callback.
What internet company in their right mind would turn up a chance for an internet engineer with 25 years experience amiright?
I was really hoping 362 was the bottom on SPY, but my sense is there is still more pain to come.
Just don’t expect it to be a straight line down.
Everyone is just starting to fall back on credit.
When you start to see households capitulating and selling their trailers, yachts and over paid homes and used cars is when we can start talking about the bottom being in.
My only open position right now is an OTM short position on SPY@320 for Jan23.
SPX - Gaps to fill?? TVC:SPX Hard to imagine but could we see a fast rally back to 4020 to cover the gaps before the next major sell off.
4020 is the 382 from the March high and also the 707 from the recent June high.
That would get people thinking that the drop is over and we are onto new highs.
Watch these levels over this week.
I hope this helps enjoy the day. 👍👍
This one ?The whales accumulate a lot btc during the drop.
So now possiblity that play to fill this gaps.
$BTC to reverse between 24,100 and 19,800I'be been waiting for this moment to hapen for months. 24,100 was the mark I have Bitcoin reversing and it's finally here. This number is the midpoint between the monthly fait value gap, fills a weekly fair value gap, and is just below a liquidity point and is a daily bullish order block all of those things combined is a sure tell sign of a reversal
see chart for previous reference points, Next stop is 40k
BTCUSD, 12k or 9.6k, volume profile and the bad news bearsVolume profile on INDEX:BTCUSD on monthly chart after cycle up in 2019
The high volume cluster at the bottom is obvious. The POC for the whole profile up to the current price today is in the 9.2k range.
The edge of the high volume cluster is around 12k.
There's plenty of liquidity gaps (fair value gaps, FVGs, whatever you like to call them) between here and there.
Those gaps tend to get filled as supply and demand tends to equilibrium, as we're seeing now and profiting from.
Shorters of the world, unite!
Set your leverage right, TP at 12k, watch for a bounce, then long as we come back up to fill in the gaps some more.
Many Stocks Have Aleady Filled the Double GapsStocks like NOW have already filled the double gap. Most are now overbought on daily MACD's. IF markets start to sell off, MDB could fill the gaps on the downside.
At Most, I See A Gap Fill to 4000.Markets could still fill the second gap around 4000, That would coincide with the 50EMA. Many stocks have already filled "the double gaps".
$META Short Gap TradeIf $META doesn't open below my take profit or above my stop loss at 9:30am EST tomorrow morning, I will give it another five minutes to do so. If at 9:35am EST it still hasn't hit my take profit or stop loss, I will manually close the position.
$AAPL Long Gap Trade If $AAPL doesn't open above my take profit or below my stop loss at 9:30am EST tomorrow morning I will give it another five minutes to do so. If at 9:35am EST it still hasn't hit my take profit or stop loss, I will manually close the position.
$MSFT Long Gap TradeIf $MSFT doesn't open above my take profit or below my stop loss at 9:30am EST tomorrow morning I will give it another five minutes to do so. If at 9:35am EST it still hasn't hit my take profit or stop loss, I will manually close the position.
$TSLA Long Gap TradeIf $TSLA doesn't open above my take profit or below my stop loss at 9:30am EST tomorrow morning I will give it another five minutes to do so. If at 9:35am EST it still hasn't hit my take profit or stop loss, I will manually close the position.
BTC TO $6900? The Gaps Say YesLet me start off by saying I am not short. I am not a BTC hater. I do not wish for this market to fail. But I must be a realist who must do a stoic analysis to become the most profitable investor I can be. If you haven't looked yet, please take a look at my linked idea "The bear is back with a vengeance". I am long term bull for BTC and because I believe BTC reaches way into the 6 figures I cannot ignore these unresolved gaps. 99% of gaps fill and these CME gaps have been long overdo. The gap levels are marked by pink lines. BTC price exploded from the lows and double topped with bearish divergence on the 3D RSI (see linked idea). We are not looking very bullish right now and given the LUNA mess I do not imagine a bunch of new money flooding into crypto right now. I think Citadel or Blackrock or whoever "the powers that be" are have it out for the stable coin market and I think a black swan event might be coming that causes this drop. Maybe Tether is the next UST? Maybe it is not and the price simply has a massive pullback due to the macros. These gaps can fill with BTC keeping its macro upwards trajectory. I think all the marked gaps get filled with a panic like dump similar to the March Covid crash and we bounce off the green downwards trend line and finally stabilizing on the green upward trendline. Also, contrary to what people say, BTC see's LARGER drawdowns after each bull run (read linked post) and that brings us to the high $6000. This is not what I want to see but it is a reality and dare I say inevitable. If BTC is really a long term asset class that is here to stay, these gaps need to be filled now. Would love to hear what you think. Please follow for more.
Looking for GAP 1 to fill around $160. BABA has been consolidating for awhile now. I'm looking for it to change direction and fill the gap around $161.
Oil Futures (45) Long Gap ReversalPrice runs up out of a relative low, Buyers step up and try to make a new high and confirm the major reaction Leg. Sellers holding at the high and pullback into a major reaction, buyers step up to the consolidation at the centre of the impulse leg up and make a new high. Buyers try to step up, break outs get washed and pulls back to re-test the minor confirmed low. Price finds orders and begins to consolidate, sellers press price into the buyers, they try to hold and expand up into the press before getting rejected with a WRB gap down. Minor confirmed low gets washed, price expands into the relative major pullback and zooms back through the sellers to land on the backside of the WRB gap down.
Trading the major impulse leg back to balance. Push of the press up
bitcoin price action scenariobitcoin break out from 45000 area and follow through bar Confirmation break out. but in pullback market close the gaps between break out and pb.
Because Previous move are tight chnanell i think The best thing seller will have is trading range. Because the first pb in tight chanell is minor.
Bitcoin behavior should be investigated in last high . if break out going 52000. if not we have trading range
Microsoft has gaps to fill. Fundamentally, Microsoft is a strong. This is a simple analysis of the gaps below after it broke through a long term support line. using daily candle notice how price bounced around the 1st gap. There are still plenty of gaps below so trade with caution for the rest of the year. Measured by market cap Microsoft is one of the largest companies on the NASDAQ.
