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GOLD prices decline on US Dollar strength and Fed tighteningThe price of gold has remained low for a second consecutive day, in response to a slight uptick in the US Dollar. The expectation of further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve has bolstered the US Dollar's appeal, causing it to attract buyers on Monday and, consequently, contributing to the decline in gold prices. Market participants now seem to believe that the Fed will continue raising interest rates to combat high inflation in the US, with a 25 basis point increase expected at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in May already fully priced in. Additionally, the Fed funds futures market indicates a low likelihood of another rate hike in June. From a technical standpoint, the price of gold has slightly rebounded today, but it remains within a bearish continuation pattern. Our analysis suggests an imminent bearish movement for the metal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
8
EUR/USD Recovers Despite Eurozone Manufacturing ContractionDespite the mixed Eurozone PMIs, the EUR/USD has recovered ground and risen above 1.0950. According to the latest manufacturing activity survey by S&P Global research released on Friday, the Eurozone manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted further in April. The Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) arrived at 45.5, falling short of both the expected 48.0 and the previous 47.3, resulting in the index reaching a 35-month low. On the other hand, the bloc's Services PMI advanced to 56.6 in April, surpassing the forecasted 54.5 and March's 55.0, hitting a 12-month high. Looking at the technical analysis, the price has shown numerous rebounds on the dynamic trendline, which is still serving as a solid support level. The main trend in the higher timeframe remains bullish, and there is a possibility of continuation of this trend in the long view for the EUR.
Long
by FOREXN1
14
NZD/CAD Pair Falls on Soft Inflation and Stronger USDDuring the first half of the European session on Friday, the NZD/CAD pair experienced significant selling pressure for the second consecutive day, leading to a five-week low. The NZD was particularly affected by the release of domestic consumer inflation figures on Thursday, which were softer than anticipated, resulting in a less hawkish stance by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). On the other hand, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to continue raising interest rates, benefiting the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) amidst a softer risk tone. Consequently, the NZD/CAD pair decreased on the last day of the week. Based on technical analysis, there was a breakout of a bearish pattern within a Bearish channel after a pullback on the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the Dynamic trendline of the upperside of the channel, suggesting a potential AB=CD Pattern of continuation. As a result, it is possible that the NZD/CAD pair will continue to decrease over the next few days.
Short
by FOREXN1
9
EUR/USD: All you need to know in this analysis.The USD is being buoyed by the latest economic report, the Fed’s Beige Book, which revealed that economic activity has remained steady in recent weeks, and that credit conditions have understandably tightened following the banking crisis. Additionally, St. Louis Fed's Bullard has been advocating for further rate hikes to counteract persistent inflation and exaggerated recession fears. The recent strong Q1 earnings reports from major US banks like JP Morgan and BofA have also helped to bolster the USD after the sector's crisis in March. Meanwhile, Euro is receiving support from the expectation that the ECB will pursue interest rate hikes, contingent upon economic data. The health of the region’s banks, as revealed by the ECB Bank Lending Survey (BLS), which is scheduled to be released on May 2, will be a crucial factor in determining whether the ECB proceeds with aggressive rate hikes. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane has also emphasized the importance of April's HICP inflation in shaping the outlook on rates. In terms of technical analysis, the EUR/USD is currently in a robust uptrend, supported by a dynamic trendline acting as support. Following a pullback on the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the price appears poised to continue its upward trajectory and reach the D point of the AB=CD Fibonacci pattern, indicating a long continuation. As for upcoming data releases, the ECB's minutes, a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, and the April Consumer Confidence report will be of particular interest to those tracking the Euro, while Fed commentary, Initial Jobless Claims, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing will be the primary releases for the US Dollar.
Long
by FOREXN1
9
EUR/USD Direction Unclear ECB Rate Hike Pace Divides InvestorsThe Euro currency is experiencing a lack of clear direction as investors hold conflicting opinions regarding the European Central Bank's (ECB) potential rate hike pace during its May monetary policy meeting. Some investors remain unconvinced that ECB President, Christine Lagarde, will reduce the pace of policy-tightening to 25 basis points (bps) during a time of critical Eurozone inflation. From a technical standpoint, the currency has undergone a second retest of the 50% Fibonacci level after experiencing a pullback to the 61.8% level. This pattern commonly reflects an AB=CD formation, leading to the creation of a new swing high. Today's market developments will be crucial in determining the Euro's direction, and our forecast predicts a long setup.
by FOREXN1
13
GBP/USD Rises on UK CPI Data. Long Scenario.The GBP/USD pair is exhibiting bullish tendencies and has made strides towards the 1.2450 level in the early hours of Wednesday. The latest UK data indicates that the annual core CPI remained steady at 6.2% in March, surpassing the market's anticipated value of 6%, thus contributing to the appreciation of the Pound Sterling. During the opening London session, the Pound experienced a slight retreat, falling to 1.24000. While lower timeframes suggest bearish momentum for the GBP/USD pair, the higher timeframes reflect a strong Pound. Today's market developments will be crucial in determining the Pound's position.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
USD/JPY Pair Retracts from 5-Week High, Shows Bearish PatternThe USD/JPY pair has retreated from its almost five-week high, which was around the 134.60 region earlier on Tuesday. During the mid-European session, the pair continued its steady intraday descent. Spot prices have now fallen below the 134.15 mark in the last hour, which has caused a significant decline in the previous day's gains and put an end to a two-day winning streak. Our analysis suggests that the USD/JPY pair is still within a Bearish Channel, with the price rebounding from both the upper and lower sides of the dynamic trendline. Furthermore, the trend in the Daily Timeframe remains bearish. Consequently, we anticipate a short impulse towards the lower side of the channel.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD: Bigger Impulse Confirms Long Position on MaintrendIn accordance with our analysis from the preceding session, the EUR/USD currency pair has exhibited movement that aligns with our projections, demonstrating a significant impulse that corresponds with the established long-term trend and has resulted in the attainment of our initial take-profit target. Building upon this favorable outcome, we anticipate the potential for additional upward momentum, leading us to suggest a continuation of our long position in the direction of the main trend for the present day.
Long
by DAY_PROFITS
1
GBP/USD: Favorable Long Position on Upward MomentumIn accordance with our analysis from the previous session, the GBP/USD currency pair has exhibited movement consistent with our predictions, having achieved the initial level of take-profit. Moreover, the pair appears to be demonstrating rapid upward momentum, reinforcing our notion of a further sustained bullish trend. As such, our present recommendation is to consider initiating a new long position in GBP/USD in anticipation of continued price appreciation.
by DAY_PROFITS
1
EUR/USD Breaks Free from Pullbacks and Looks to Bullish Impulse EUR/USD has gained decently above the 1.0900 hurdle and broken free from two consecutive daily pullbacks, despite increased selling pressure on the dollar. Currently, the focus is on upcoming data releases. The possibility of further tightening by the ECB in May is still on the cards, with investors anticipating a 25 bps rate raise. However, some ECB policy makers have hinted at a larger rate increase in recent sessions. Later in the day, the ZEW institute for Germany and the euro bloc will release their Economic Sentiment gauge, alongside trade balance figures for the euro area. In the NA session, the spotlight will be on housing data and a speech by FOMC’s M. Bowman. As we explained yesterday, the price had a pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which coincided with a strong support area, and the dynamic trendline acted as additional support. Currently, the price is on an upward trend and we are expecting a fresh bullish impulse to emerge.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
Don't miss out on the GBP/JPY Bull runYesterday, we discussed how the GBP/JPY had recently experienced a bullish rally, but had been in a consolidation phase for the past two days. During this period, the price appeared to be forming a reversal head and shoulders pattern, which caused some concern among traders. However, the pattern was invalidated when the price broke through the local resistance, leading to the formation of a bullish flag continuation pattern. As of today, the price is pushing higher in the long direction setup that we had anticipated. We are currently on the lookout for a long setup, which we believe will present a profitable opportunity for our trading strategy. It is worth noting that the bullish flag continuation pattern suggests that the price may continue to rise, so we will be monitoring the situation closely and adjusting our strategy accordingly. Overall, we remain optimistic about the prospects for the GBP/JPY and are excited to see how the market will evolve in the coming days and weeks.
Long
by FOREXN1
4
Bullish Trend Continues for GBP/USD PairThe GBP/USD pair is currently in an uptrend and has been continuing its rally despite experiencing a pullback at the previous 61.8% Fibonacci level. We have observed that the price has rebounded in this area, and our forecast remains bullish as we anticipate a new and fresh impulse to push the price towards the upside of the chart. To elaborate further, it seems that the currency pair is gaining momentum, and traders can expect a positive trend to emerge. Based on the technical analysis, we can anticipate a steady rise in the GBP/USD price, which may be fueled by a range of economic factors, such as strong market sentiment and a robust global economy. Therefore, we advise traders to stay vigilant and keep a close eye on the market as it evolves. The current trend suggests that the GBP/USD pair has a potential for further growth, and investors should capitalize on this opportunity. In conclusion, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength, and the market outlook remains positive. We recommend traders to exercise caution, but at the same time, take advantage of the prevailing bullish trend.
Long
by DAY_PROFITS
1
EUR/USD in Correction Mode: Potential Pullback Ahead.The EUR/USD currency pair has witnessed a decline in its value and subsequently bounced back from the 1.0975 region. Over the past week, the EUR/USD has been retreating from its recent highs in the proximity of 1.1100. This drop can be attributed to the correction in the upside movement of the dollar. As of now, the price movement of the EUR/USD is expected to continue to follow the dynamics of the dollar closely. It is also expected to be influenced by the diverging intentions of the Fed and ECB banks regarding potential interest rate changes. Despite the hawkish stance of the ECB, which supports further rate hikes, there seems to be a loss of momentum in economic fundamentals in the region, which contrasts this view. Our analysis suggests that the EUR/USD might experience a pullback in the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci area before setting up for a new long position. However, if the price falls below the 78.6% Fibonacci level, it could indicate a short entry opportunity.
by FOREXN1
12
GBP/JPY Faces Bearish Chart Formation with Mild Gains: AnalysisAt the start of the London trading session on Monday, GBP/JPY shows a slight increase in value, hovering around 166.50. However, the cross-currency pair is facing a challenge in maintaining its upward momentum over the past four days, as it is currently caught in a bearish chart pattern, known as the Head and Shoulders pattern. If the dynamic trendline of the pattern, referred to as the "Neckline," is broken, this could confirm a downside trend for the pair. However, if the price manages to rise above the level of the Right Shoulder, it may indicate a long setup.
by FOREXN1
5
USD/JPY Bears Eye Downward Trend as US Dollar Faces PressureThe current market for USD/JPY is dominated by the bears, who are eagerly anticipating a continuation of the downward trend. At this crucial moment, the trendline support is highly vulnerable. As Tokyo traders enter the market on Friday, the price of USD/JPY remains stagnant, resting below a significant resistance area near 132.70 on the 4-hour charts. The US Dollar is facing pressure, mainly due to the week's data that has led to the belief that the Federal Reserve will pause in its tightening policy campaign, with just one last rate hike scheduled for May. The primary focus of the market has been on the inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year decrease from 6% in February to 5% in March. Furthermore, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand, which was released on Thursday, also indicated a continued decrease in inflationary pressures, with a 0.5% drop last month. Over the twelve months leading to March, the PPI increased 2.7%, representing the smallest year-on-year rise since January 2021, following a 4.9% increase in February. In the event that the price breaks out of the dynamic trendline, we can expect to see a further pushdown in the price, moving in a downward direction.
by FOREXN1
7