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Fundamental Analysis

Coffee in the morning!CAPITALCOM:COFFEEARABICA is the second most imported commodity in the world, after oil. Looking at the charts, it might strike one as a commodity that is just bumbling about, at least on shorter time frames, often at a slow pace. However, reality is that it is highly volatile, and prone to huge fluctuations in price. As an example, the price of Arabica is up 80% the last year. This followed a 50% drop from Feb 22 to Jan 23. In terms of relative volume, it is also one of the most traded commodities all over the world. So what drives prices, and what are the major deciding factors of this brown delight? As for most commodities, supply and demand are key. Brazil is the undisputed largest producer, with close to 40% of global supply. Other top producers include Vietnam, Colombia, and Ethiopia. The two major types of coffee are Arabica and Robusta, with Arabica being the “prime” coffee. This is because it is much more delicate and needs more specific cultivation requirements, such as weather and altitude, to grow. It is also more prone to plant disease due to this, such as Coffee Leaf Rust. Weather conditions (such as frosts or droughts) heavily affect coffee-producing countries (like Brazil), and this can send prices skyrocketing. Because most of the coffee production takes place in developing countries, political instability and social unrest are also huge, potential factors in the supply of coffee. Add to this logistical challenges, and the price of shipping in such high volume, not helped by Covid which is still impacting shipping and the cost of shipping, all leading to higher prices. And still we have not touched financial speculation (yes, you and me.) and trader/analyst predictions. Coffee futures are traded many places, the two majors being ICE in New York (Arabica) and LIFFE in London (Robusta). These two decide the price, known as the C price. Price, as in the price of coffee. Earlier we touched on supply and demand, which is the sort of hamster wheel driving prices. Demand is rising, but on the flip side of this, the Russia-Ukraine war has affected demand (as it has so many other things). Russia is the sixth largest coffee consumer, and due to sanctions demand has been dampened. We all hope this war is temporary, so an end to it, I suppose depending on the outcome, could spark demand again. Another factor is a switch in demand from Arabica to Robusta. This is a lower priced bean, and in some of the worlds largest countries (China, India, Pakistan), there are signs of a switch in demand to Robusta. This is 40% of the world population but will of course take some time to affect market and prices. Chart: Like I said, price seems to bumble about and has for a long time kept within the boundaries of a rising wedge (Daily and 4H). Price has now surpassed the previous long-term high of $2.59050 from Feb 22, with a new high of $2.59326. Depending on how far you want to go back, there is no clear resistance ahead. As price has oscillated inside the range of the wedge for the last 5 months, one could expect a drop towards the $2.45 area, before turning up again. The 50EMA is steadily moving up above the 100EMA. As always, wait for a confirmed break of channel before going long. Or, short the return to base line, if you feel that is the immediate move.
CAPITALCOM:COFFEEARABICA
by WeRideAtDawn
Why BATT Could Be A Great ETF To Buy & HoldHere I have AMEX:BATT Amplify Lithium & Battery Technology ETF on a Multi-Timeframe Analysis with a Monthly & Weekly Chart! Technicals: Starting with the Monthly Chart, taking the Fibonacci Retracement Tool from the All Time Low @ $5.91 to the All Time High @ $20.78, we see that the Selling Pressure is waning with the Price Exhaustion happening in the Fibonacci 78.6% - 88.6% "Kill Zone" Range from ( $9.09 - $7.61 ) -Bears are losing grip on the asset Zooming down to the Weekly where Price has visited the Kill Zone, we can see a ICT Concept Method called the Bullish Order Block taking place! After Price found Support, Price created a New Swing Low Breaking Sellside Liquidity, then shortly after, Breaking Structure again while surpassing the Swing High! -The Week Starting Monday, 29th of July 2024 creates the Bullish Order Block we should suspect Price to revisit before continuing its Uptrend behavior. -This High of the Weekly candle sits right at the Upper Limits of the Support Zone and at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level! **Price also could potentially make a deeper Retracement to the 61.8% Level to visit the LH it created before Breaking up through the Support Zone! -Will be looking for Buy Entries in the ( $8.96 - $8.67 ) Range! Fundamentals: Lithium Stocks hit alot of hype in 2023 with the expectations of the EV Industry being our Near-Future way of transportation as a move toward a greener way of living! EV sales wax and wane but as time as gone on, the look for the essential metal and mineral components needed for this industry to boom has began to fill as we are finding more and more vast and rich deposits of Lithium and other Rare Earth Minerals! -https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:e90ae995b094b:0-bullish-views-power-long-term-lithium-etf-prospects/ With that, EV Demand will come -https://www.tradingview.com/news/benzinga:5ead3a15a094b:0-arkansas-may-be-sitting-on-19m-tons-of-lithium-amid-rising-demand-for-ev-batteries-how-to-invest-in-what-elon-musk-calls-the-new-oil/ ** Once Price goes Bullish, I have upcoming Areas of Value that it may contend with on the way up!
AMEX:BATTLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
TESLA option play planFirst of all thanks to papa E and orange toasty for becoming besties, we getting the mad pump. Second of all it was a reasonably easy bet to take. Why take 2x on vanilla trump vs harris when you can slap on some out of the money option calls? its a full win/lose bet but the options get you 5-10x average for this one. Risk - Reward ratio is everything. If your taking the risk make sure the reward pays for it. Putting this one down so I can reference going forward. Yeh we might go flat for few months.. or dump because of tarrifs and xyz blah blah,, but This is just the strong bull option which is the scenario im aiming to hopefully play. Euphoria/blow off phases tend to have two main features 1. its velocity/momentum is faster than you think (its over before you know it; just when your getting really excited) 2. it tends to go higher than you thought PE ratios, valuations etc are hinting at top energy here. lets ride it and hopefully jump ship in time.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Crypto-Quantum-Fox
Altcoin 2025 bullrun cycleI think it is no secret to everybody that Bitcoin and Altcoins (including ETH) are very much correlated. But they do have a certain lag in impulses. On the chart you can see altcoin market cap vs Bitcoin market cap (High values). As you can cee, Bitcoin had a new All time high which is ~53% higher than the previous one, while altcoins didn't manage to break the Total market cap ATH. But percentages are not the only thing interesting to us. We are also interested in the dollar delta between them and which one is higher. We only have two major bullish cycles to analyze, therefore any conclusions made frome them may not guarantee that next bull run will be similar. First thing I could notice is that capital flows as follows: new money coming into market first boosts bitcoin and when it goes into its parabolic growth state, Bitcoin market cap is higher than that of Altcoins. And as you can see on the chart, when altoin market cap surpasses bitcoin, it means that most likely that capital inflow into crypto slows down. And most likely it signals near beginning of an overall bear market. I think we should closely monitor this and be ready to start selling when the two lines close once again. Another point of view is the next ATH for both bitcoin and Atlcoins. As I predict in , for bitcoin the next ATH will be around 115-200k and therefore mcap will reach around 3-4 trln. This means that ATH for altcoin mcap will be around 4-5 trln and be ready when CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D becomes lower than 50%. Let's see how this turns out. And by the way total mcap doesn't define each altcoin growth so each coin needs to be analyzed separately.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by AlexLukyanin
DXY - 4H Dollar Index more FallTechnical Perspective: TVC:DXY experienced two significant bullish legs in October and November on the daily time frame. However, the index started to fall sharply at the end of November, and this bearish momentum remains strong. On the 4H chart, DXY reached a key resistance zone and faced a significant rejection with notable bearish momentum, signaling the continuation of the downtrend. The current movement indicates a high likelihood of further declines, potentially to the bottom of the trading range. Many USD pairs are at critical support or resistance levels, and expected reactions from these zones could amplify downward pressure on the DXY, making it increasingly vulnerable to a substantial fall. Fundamental Perspective: In December 2024, the bearish sentiment surrounding the DXY is driven by key fundamental factors. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement another 25 basis point interest rate cut during its December 18 meeting, following earlier cuts in September and November. This dovish policy reflects the Fed’s commitment to supporting economic growth amidst a slightly cooling labor market and growing global uncertainties. Adding to the pressure, inflation data showed a 2.7% year-over-year increase in November, a slight uptick from 2.6% in October. Despite this, the Fed remains focused on easing monetary conditions to mitigate recession risks. Additionally, the recent U.S. presidential election has raised prospects of fiscal policy changes, including proposed tax cuts and potential tariff adjustments, which contribute to market uncertainty and weigh on the dollar. These fundamental shifts align with the bearish technical setup, suggesting that the DXY’s downtrend is likely to persist in the near term. Keep an eye on upcoming Fed announcements and inflation data for further confirmation of this trajectory.
TVC:DXYShort
by Sober_Trading
EURNZD - Look for a long !!Hello traders! ‼️ This is my perspective on EURNZD. Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a long. I have 2 points of interest, first one if price fills the imbalance and rejects from bullish OB at level 1.81000. The second one is imbalance lower + level 1.80000. Fundamental news: Tomorrow (GMT+2) we will see results of Interest Rate on EUR, news with high impact on currency Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
Long
by Snick3rSD
BBW: One of the Great Wealth Transfer BeneficiariesHey, all. Wanted to get a video made for the first time in a few weeks. I have a position in NYSE:BBW that has been doing well. In my opinion, this is a stock that is geared for further upside. Earnings have been coming in consistent and they have done a good job with their product offerings as I found out when visiting their website recently. I do think NYSE:BBW can continue the growth, especially as more Millenials and Gen-Z have kids. The Baby Boomer generation will want to spend money on their grandkids and that should drive up cute stuffed animal sales. At any rate, please do your own research and invest carefully and wisely! Hope you enjoy the video, and best of luck out there!
NYSE:BBWLong
by redykhouse
8
GOLD → Retest 2720. CPI ahead, what to expect?FX:XAUUSD is coming out of a long consolidation and testing 2688. Bulls are trying to keep the defense above this zone, but the risks are increased by the publication of CPI... Gold was boosted by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and renewed buying of gold reserves by China. Amid looming tariffs announced by Trump and weakening labor market conditions, the US inflation report will be crucial in determining the Fed's easing trajectory in the coming months. Further upside for gold prices hinges on the release of US CPI data, which is likely to set the pace for US Fed action early next year. Technically, gold is heading towards broad range resistance as well as the 2720 liquidity zone. The chances of reaching the target are high, but a sharp approach and high news volatility could trigger a false breakout. Resistance levels: 2705, 2720 Support levels: 2688, 2675, 2658 The CPI data may trigger both a rise in the dollar and a deep correction, depending on the interpretation of the current US economy. Gold may react accordingly, but it all depends on the actual data. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSD
by RLinda
24
AUDCHF: ITF CURVE ANALYSIS (5D) - UPTREND - DAYTRADER✨ AUDCHF: ITF CURVE ANALYSIS (5D) ✨ (UPTREND) BLO1 @ 0.5632 - TRIGGERED BLO2 @ 0.5566 ⏳ TP1 @ 0.59807 TP2 @ 0.6285 TP3 @ 0.65369 TP3 @ 0.68883 SLO @ 0.69859⏳(DO NOT SET, ANTICIPATE PB/REANALYZE AFTER TP4) 🔑 BLO = BUY LIMIT ORDER ITF = INTERMEDIATE TIME FRAME SLO = SELL LIMIT ORDER TP = TAKE PROFIT NOTE: Because there is an opportunity for more immediate paychecks, I've decided to provide the daytrade view to combat the long term trade I just posted, which will take some time to play out. This not so much. Quicker profits and less wait... depending on the strategy. Either way, just sharing what I'm doing. Intermediate time frames (4 hours to 6 day): — Offer a clearer picture of the underlying trend compared to short-term frames. — Provide more opportunities for confirmation signals and technical analysis. — Allow for more flexible trading schedules, trades can be held overnight. — Suitable for swing traders and some positional traders.
Long
by oktane