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Fundamental Analysis

Quick Rally For 3030 Has Fallen to a High volume trading area reaching the point of control that could act as a strong support, added There's also a strong Hidden Bullish Divergence on the RSI that gives great indication that we could see a rally up from this daily support lvl (42,300) back to the "trend line" break & previous structure low,(Filling the sell side imbalance -FVG) Confluences on This Trade - Rejecting Daily support lvl 42,266 - Rejecting Demand zone - @ 38.2 Fib Retracement - Hidden Bullish Divergence (RSI) - Buy Side imbalance fill - Daily Volume Support Lock in with your LTF Bullish Entry Signal, WAIT FOR YOUR CONFIRMATION AND **RISK ACCORDINGLY Intro to the next possible move: After this bullish move - price could reject the Trend line and previous structure low, then continue down. **This bullish to bearish move would give price action a "Head and shoulders ish" Pattern on a HTF. Caution on the Bearish Sell- we have high volume right below the 41,000 bank lvl that could act as a support. with all of that being said the one thing that gives me great hesitation on the 2nd part of this move The "Bearish Sell" is the fact that this current pull back only brought price down to the 38.2 Fib lvl, so this could just be a minor pull back for a big Bullish continuation move.
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by brianfj
4
12/2/24 - $nu - Bot $12, load closer to $10 if/when (LONG)12/2/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NU Bot $12, load closer to $10 if/when - is one of the three stonks in latam that i've commented in the past is worth keeping a v close eye on b/c of the growth rates and tremendous product. the others are NASDAQ:MELI and NASDAQ:DLO (the latter of which worked out nicely and we made a good exit earlier this year from the lows, but it took a minute). - back to Nubank: 1/ brazil in earlier innings of economic funeral, but what's new this happens every so often and those battle tested growers tend to come out of these events eating massive share, Nu will be one of these 2/ timing is always the tricky thing. you want to take calculated risk, but unlike the US stonks, you have clear geo/ FX and therefore adverse flows risk to consider. invest in emerging mkts and you need to have a tolerance/ knowledge of currency risk, minimally. i'm not going to downplay that here, but only to flag this needs to be something you consider if/when considering a stake in $nu. the counter point is they're growing bananas outside of Brazil as well and likely take over pretty much over every other latam country similar to Meli. IMO, there's no competition for the growth engine they can export into latam. 3/ let's math and use two approaches... PE and ROE -> book value a1. PE: let's imagine the 62c next year (in USD) is 50c - only a 15% growth. the reason you'd look at this is b/c most investors r going to be focused here, so you stand the chance of risk-evaluating what others see and making a call (similar to support and resistance vs. some esoteric TA you've developed). in this vein, what would you pay for a 15% EPS grower (ignoring all other factors of what this biz is and only considering it's a bank in Latam)? maybe 10-12x? def sub 1x PEG. b/c it's brazil, brazil is currently fukt. so you put a "depressed multiple" on a depressed EPS. at call it 50c and 10x - you're at $5 bucks. sick downside from the $12 it closed at today. so that's probably *worst* case, from today's POV. let's call that -60%. diddy slip and slide party pain. a.2: PE: but this isn't some "new kid on the block". a lot of Nu investors are smart int'l types that are going to look beyond trough '25, even today, including papi warren B. so if we assume we pick up from 15% toward 20% the following year and go 50c -> 60c, you'd probably start to consider at that point at least a PEG of 1x given growth would extend to the following yrs as well. at 20x on 60c you're at $12 for year-end '26. and let's give it a 15% discount (Ke brazil finger in air - but likely in the ballpark) and you get to $10 and change for the 12M view e.g. YE25, which is the bogey we're all looking at today given we're already done w/ '24. so that's 20% downside. combining a.1 and a.2 above... i'd likely weight a.2 as being perhaps a 70% and a.1 as 30% given the logic described, investor base and this isn't some going concern issue. also i'm being mega conservative w/ my EPS estimates as well. if you haven't noticed, they keep ripping the cover off the ball on EPS. so combined that's -60%*30% + -20%*70% = 33% downside more or less or a $8 stonk. b: ROE thinking. 25% ROEs (probably expanding) and growing book at probably ~$1/shr for the next 2 yrs combined gets you to a book of $5. when you consider this likely continues to grow nearly 15-20% a year... and we could be conservative and say it's 10% a year (cut it more than in half)... at a 15% Ke you get: Price = BookVal * (ROE - g)/(Ke - g) then discount 2 yrs by 15%. this is Price = $5 * (25 - 10)/(15 - 10)/1.15/1.15 = $11+ today. tying this all together... fair value is probably between 10 and 11 today. so buying $12 is defn being a bit opportunistic and playing a reversion move on BRL related assets. i'd not be surprised to see this thing move back toward $13/14 into year end, and equally i'd not be surprised to see it test the big green dilly from Aug 5 this year that ripped thru $10. So, it's not an obvious trade for those who don't know this asset or haven't been following that closely. perhaps easier to wait for better entry even if that means some chop here/ there and you get a bit of fomo if first move is up. The way i'm personally playing it are $10 and $11 strike 2027 leaps. allows me to amp my exposure without necking out too hard on a notional cash-in basis. offers about 3-1 leverage, so a 1.5-2% options position gets me a gross effective of about 5-6%. that's comfy for now. i'd like to get this position closer to 10-15% if/when we hit the $10s area or below (and it will be one to manage b/c *WHY* we go there will matter a lot - not just a rote plan, these things always evolve and perhaps there are other better deals out there too esp in the US or my favs NASDAQ:NXT , NYSE:TSM , NASDAQ:META ). anyway. wanted to flag. should be on your radar. this is a quality LT compounder that's gotten cheap b/c of geography, but is a neo-bank virus to the existing dino's in latam. LMK what u think or esp if u see it differently. have a good week my friends V
NYSE:NULong
by VROCKSTAR
$BTC.D prediction based on the current situation.CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D has been climbing steadily since the start of this bull run. It’s often said that an altseason begins when BTC dominance drops below 55%. However, the 54% level appears to be a strong support zone, with the MACD showing a low point and the RSI entering oversold territory. My analysis suggests that BTC dominance has established a range between 59% and 55%. It’s likely to bounce off the top resistance, pushing dominance back toward the support. If the next drop breaks through this support, it could finally trigger a true altseason.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by CryptoNikkoid
1
MSTZ to $32....early Christmas giftLet's start 2025 with a bang! This is my last gift for the year. Microstrategy will be tanking with BTC drop and the rate of decrease has noticeably been steep and purposeful. Thankfully, MSTZ is the superstar that will save the day (2x inverse). The gravity is strong with this one, until consolidation around $32. We're looking at 30%ish upside on this puppy. It will go fast so lock and loaded tomorrow and prob close out in a few hours. As always, do your due diligence and best of luck!
CBOE:MSTZLong
by antonini2002
USUAL | UNUSUAL PUMPsUSUAL Suspects: The Stablecoin Revolution Nobody Saw Coming! After 300% pump lets see whats unusual here USUAL is like the cool kid of stablecoin projects focused on making secure, decentralized fiat stablecoins while letting the community call the shots. The magic happens with the USUAL token, giving users control over governance. Using multi chain tech, USUAL grabs Real World Assets (RWAs) from big league players like BlackRock and Mountain Protocol, turning them into USD0 a stablecoin that’s on-chain, transparent, and way more trustworthy than your flaky ex. Why Is USUAL "Unusually" Cool? 1.Multi-Chain Mastery: Plays nice with multiple blockchains, so USD0 isn’t stuck on one network like your grandma’s ancient landline. 2.RWA Wizardry: Collects tokenized real-world assets from legit pros and backs the stablecoin like it’s guarding Fort Knox. 3.Power to the People: Governance is decentralized, meaning you (yes, YOU!) help steer the ship with the USUAL token 4.OnChain Transparency: USD0 is like that one friend who overshares—totally transparent and verifiable, plus it’s compatible with your favorite DeFi apps. 5. Community Takeover:It’s all about the users power, value, and decision-making are in your hands. No middlemen allowed. USUAL’s Price Parade - Today’s Price: $0.603 (up a spicy +23.8% in the last 24 hours). - All-Time High: $0.632 (Dec 9, 2024 so close, yet so far at -4.57%). - Supply Stats: 494.6M tokens circulating, with a max supply of 4B tokens. - Trading Volume: $52.76M in the last 24 hours, traded across 2 markets and 4 exchanges (Binance being the star) - Market Cap: $299M, grabbing 0.01% of the crypto market pie. Basically, USUAL is doing the stablecoin hustle while keeping things unusually exciting
BINANCE:USUALUSDTLong
by moonypto
Daily Analysis of Gold Ounce to USD – Issue 173The analyst believes that the price of { XAUUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by MoonriseTA
Fed triggers US equity sell-offLast night the Federal Reserve surprised no one when it announced a 25 basis point rate cut, taking the Fed Funds band down to 4.25-4.50%, back to levels last seen two years ago. But that wasn’t the main story. The big news came with the release of the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This showed that the majority of FOMC members now expect just 50 basis points-worth of rate cuts between now and the end of next year. While this is what the CME’s FedWatch Tool has been forecasting for a some time now, it represents a major change in the FOMC’s thinking since the last SEP from September. Back then, the forecast was for 100 basis points-worth of cuts in 2025. So this represents a significant hawkish change, and one that led to a slump in equity markets and precious metals, and a surge in the US dollar and bond yields. US stock indices registered their biggest one day declines since March 2020, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury broke above 4.50% to hit its highest level since May this year. If yields find a floor here and head higher, then they could become a big headwind for equity prices going into 2025. It’s worth considering just what a mess the Fed made of that September meeting. Not only was it far too dovish in its forecasts, once again appearing to underestimate the stickiness of inflation, but it also messed up the other side of its dual mandate, the labour side. It got completely blindsided by a couple of poor Non-Farm Payroll reports, to such an extent that it panicked and cut rates by 50 basis points rather than the 25 widely expected. That decision may have set up the central bank for yesterday’s hawkish shift, although in fairness there are several other factors, not all of them bad. Inflation has ticked up recently, which makes it harder for the Fed to justify easier monetary policy. But US growth is undoubtedly robust, while unemployment appears anchored at manageable levels. There is some uncertainty over what the incoming Trump administration may mean for the economy, but overall little has changed. The Fed can be blamed for some poor messaging, but then again investors have only heard what they wanted to hear, blocking out any negative signals. The market hasn’t suddenly woken up to a string of ‘unknown unknows’ or anything else so Rumsfeldian. Instead, the sell-off in equities looks more like a panicked response from a market priced to perfection. And while it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a bounce-back as we approach the Christmas break, the odds have certainly shortened on tops being in for all the major indices.
TRADENATIONSB:US500
by TradeNation
1
Daily Analysis of GBP to USD – Issue 173The analyst believes that the price of { GBPUSD } will increase in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Long
by MoonriseTA
Gold Analysis December 20⭐️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices maintained a buying bias in the first half of the European session on Friday amid prevailing risk-off sentiment. Amid persistent geopolitical risks and trade war concerns, the threat of a US government shutdown prompted some safe-haven flows into bullion. C The Federal Reserve's hawkish signal that it will slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025 acted as a driver for US bond yields and favored USD bulls. Traders now look to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which could influence the USD price dynamics and act as a driver for gold prices in the US session. ⭐️Technical Analysis Gold rebounded from 2587. This zone became a resistance zone but is no longer too strong if the selling pressure is strong. The important zone at the moment is around 2607. When this zone breaks before the middle of the European session, the target of 2622 will be where SELL signals can be considered. If the US session breaks this zone, we have two possible resistance zones, the first SEL around 2633-2635 and when this zone breaks, we must aim for 2658-2660. If it fails to break 2607, set SELL to 2555. ⭐️Trading signals SELL GOLD zone 2622-2624 Stoloss 2627 SELL GOLD zone 2633-2635 Stoploss 2638 BUY GOLD zone 2656-2654 Stoploss 2651 BUY Scalp 2692-2690 Stoploss 2687
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GBPCHF Ahead of the BOE Interest Rate DecisionGBPCHF Ahead of the BOE Interest Rate Decision Today, the Bank of England (BOE) is expected to release its rate decision. The BOE is anticipated to keep rates unchanged at 4.75%. If this happens, the GBP could see slight bullish momentum, but nothing significant. However, considering the improving UK data over the past month, we could see a weaker GBP , if the BOE cuts rates. The price has already broken out from a bearish pattern. This movement is very risky, as it is mainly based on the BOE Interest Rate Decision. These events can easily invalidate patterns, so it is advisable to be cautious. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
4
Dogecoin at its crossroads: Moment of truthHello, fellow traders! This is my analysis on Dogecoin as well as the market sentiment overall. 1️⃣ Technical Analysis on Dogecoin There are four major analyses for Dogecoin. 1. Dogecoin broke below the uptrend channel on December 12th. We see Dogecoin breaking below the daily uptrend channel after touching the channel’s resistance line. The price attempted a bullish rebound on December 11th but failed, resulting in the break below and raising concerns about the future of the rally. 2. Dogecoin broke below the Price Action Zone yesterday. Even after breaking below the channel, there was still a chance for Dogecoin to reenter the channel. If the price was within the Price Action Zone (PAZ), the rally could still have continued. However, exiting the PAZ greatly discourages this. 3. Dogecoin formed a ‘Double Top’ pattern. Dogecoin, having formed two tops on November 23rd and December 8th, has broken below the neckline of 0.36482, which is a valid sign for a possible downtrend. 4. Dogecoin broke below the rectangular box. Another bearish sign, similar to the PAZ breakthrough and the Double Top pattern, as the price of Dogecoin breaks below the rectangular box. All of these are strong signs that are foreshadowing the bearish momentum. However, the price of Dogecoin has currently rebounded after touching the major level of 0.34010, forming a bullish hammer candle. So, does this signal a good entry for long? What are we to expect from Dogecoin – and the market itself, for that matter? 2️⃣ Understanding the market It's essential to understand the overall market movements first and also the reason behind them. The crypto market has left investors with confusion over the past few days, but Bitcoin is continuing its bullish rally for now. Let’s have a look at the Bitcoin chart. With Bitcoin falling over 5% yesterday, it is currently climbing back up with a green hammer candle. Today’s candle is particularly important as the price has touched both the support line of the current uptrend channel and the upper side of the major demand zone. Showing the rebound at this AoC (Area of Confluence – where more than two lines, zones or levels intersect) could indicate an additional climb especially with Bitcoin’s price remaining within the channel. However, if the candle closes red, ignoring the AoC, this could heavily discourage the market’s bullish momentum. BTC Dominance also continues to rise yet is forming a ‘shooting star’ candle today (for now) as altcoins including Dogecoin faces rebound. Ethereum presents a particularly intriguing chart as it attempts to reenter the uptrend channel after breaking below yesterday. If the bullish momentum is strong enough, it could reenter the channel before today’s candle closes. Today’s candles for these cryptos are important because they could shape the future direction of the market. Bitcoin closing below the channel could spark fear throughout the entire market and question many of the rally’s continuation. Same goes for Dogecoin: the candle is currently green, but with considerable time remaining until the candle closes, Dogecoin could face downtrend – possibly toward 0.22930. Dogecoin exiting the uptrend channel & PAZ already shows that it has lost much of the bullish momentum it showed last month. It is important to understand the context of the sharp decline yesterday – many of you may already be aware but for those who are not – the US Fed interest rate has been cut to 4.50% (from 4.75%). While this is typically a good sign for the market, the Fed also hinted that there will be fewer cuts in 2025 – triggering sharp declines across the major markets including stock and crypto. Another (and more significant) thing worth noting as a crypto trader is that Fed Chair Powell has commented, “That’s the kind of thing that Congress to consider, but we are not looking for a law change,” when asked about the possibility of digital assets being held by the central bank. His answer, implying that the central bank currently has neither the legal right nor the intention of owning the digital currency, impacted the crypto market furthermore – because the current rally has mostly been driven by the hype of ‘digital currencies being adopted by the governments & banks as tools to cover their financial challenges such as paying national debt.’ But with Fed Chair dropping the axe that this is not going to happen (at least for a while), the rally loses its purpose – which could heavily damage its momentum. And the fear has already been reflected by the market as we see the sharp decline. 3️⃣ What to expect? Before sharing my insights, I want to emphasize the following first: The Crypto market, notorious for its high volatility, maintained its reputation today as Dogecoin’s price fluctuated wildly. (Being a full-time trader,) I’ve watched price moving up and down multiple times – at one point, it almost seemed like the price would drop straight down to 0.22930, only to reverse direction minutes later. Be very, extremely cautious – it is always wise to stay passive and observant before diving in instead of trading instantly upon price touching or breaking the major levels or zones - even if they look promising. Market is often very unpredictable. Bitcoin seems to be performing well as the price remains within its uptrend channel. However, the same cannot be said for Dogecoin or Ethereum. (Some altcoins like Uxlink are showing unusual movements despite the market sentiment, but these are most likely cases of manipulation and should be considered exceptions.) Dogecoin has already lost a big part of its bullish momentum and Ethereum is also stumbling with its price breaking below the channel. Of course, this is not to say or assume that the rally is over – no one knows the future. Consolidation often means building momentum for a bigger leap. Nothing is to be assumed. For example, in my recent post on Ark CRYPTO:ARKUSD , I’ve mentioned that it is very unlikely that we would see a rebound at the AoC (red box in the chart below) due to the market sentiment then, but here we are with the possibility. But it is true that the current chart of Dogecoin is currently leaning more towards the bearish side. If the price breaks below the red dotted line (0.34010) or even shows the bearish reversal upon touching (or nearing) the major zones or levels, there’s a chance the bearish movement would continue, granting us the short opportunities. (Also, it’s not hard to imagine that some form of resistance may occur before any continued decline, so be mindful of a possible last squeeze – if the downtrend does materialize.) React, don't predict! Stay disciplined and patient. Don't get greedy and be thankful. God bless :) Romans 5:8
by QJEEE