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Fundamental Analysis

GBPAUD to the moon?Taking a long position on GBPAUD, main reasons being: - BoE holding interest rates for now and less rate cuts are expected next year, could drive more institutions to hold GBP and increase it's value - AUD are trade partners with China who are experiencing significant economic instability - COT traders are 57% long on GBP (+2.14% compared to last week) - COT traders are 52% long on AUD, but are adding more short positions (-4.53% change in net long positions compared to last week) - Retail traders are 93% short on GBPAUD (I find that retail is usually wrong, so this is a positive signal for GBPAUD longs in my book) This trade is more based on Australia's weakness rather than Britain's strength. I was also thinking of shorting AUDJPY (see previous trade idea) or AUDUSD. I couldn't get in a position that I liked on AUDJPY (yet) and I'm already in a short position on EURUSD, so I want to diversify a bit away from the US Dollar. The reason I'm entering here is because it is filling an imbalance candle, and it's also at the 0.682 mark on the Fibonacci retracement tool. If I get taken out I don't mind, there may be better entries on GBPAUD available if that happens, or there may be an opportunity to short AUDJPY instead, which I prefer the fundamentals of. Don't take this as investment advice, I'm just sharing what I'm doing. Please don't follow me blindly, create your own strategy and ideas.
Long
by ciantrades
2
USD/JPY hits 5-mth high after BoJ holds ratesThe Japanese yen continues its rapid descent and is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.82, up 1.3% on the day. Earlier, the yen weakened to 157.14, its lowest level against the US dollar since July 22. The Bank of Japan didn't have any surprises up its sleeve on Thursday as it maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.25%. The BoJ has kept rates steady since July but has signaled that it intends to normalize policy and raise rates. The central bank has been guarded about the timing of a rate hike and there was some speculation that it might raise rates at Thursday's meeting. The decision to hold rates was not unanimous, with 8 members voting in favor and one member voting for a 25-basis point hike. The rate statement did not shed much light on the BoJ's plans but Governor Ueda said at his press conference that the BoJ could afford to move slowly on raising rates since underlying inflation was only increasing at a "moderate pace". The markets expect another rate hike in the first quarter of 2025. Ueda also noted that there was uncertainty over the policies of the  incoming Trump administration. Trump has declared he will impose tariffs on US trading partners, which could affect global inflation. Interestingly, the BoJ holds its next meeting on Jan. 24, a day after Trump takes office. The Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut was widely expected but the market was surprised by the Fed's updated rate-cut forecast. In September, the Fed projected four rate cuts in 2025 but this was halved to just two cuts at the Wednesday meeting. US stock markets were sharply lower in response but the US dollar shined and rose sharply on Wednesday against all the major currencies, including 0.85% against the yen. At his follow-up press conference, Fed Chair Powell said he was "very optimistic" about the strength of the US economy but he was less rosy about inflation, which has stalled above the Fed's 2% target. Powell said, "we have been moving sideways on 12-month inflation", a signal that the Fed may take a pause from its easing cycle until inflation resumes its downswing. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 155.38 and 155.92 and is putting pressure on resistance at 156.98 154.32 and 153.78 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Bitcoin (BTC): technical and fundamental analysis. Altseason.📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT The Bitcoin price is trading within a narrowing price range, formed after an unsuccessful test of the major resistance block at $100,000, followed by a correction to the 0.23 Fibonacci retracement level and subsequent consolidation. This has resulted in the formation of a pattern known as a narrowing wedge, the breakout of which could indicate the next direction for BTC price movement. If buyers, supported by fundamental factors, manage to break through the psychological resistance level of $100,000, we can expect a strong upward momentum toward the next resistance zones at $110,000–$120,000 and a test of the global trendline resistance. Conversely, if sellers push the price below the $90,000 support block and establish themselves beneath the EMA 200 line, we anticipate a corrective move toward the 0.5–0.61 Fibonacci retracement levels. These levels coincide with Imbalance zones, where consolidations are needed to close gaps in horizontal volume levels. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis. When does the altseason start? Bitcoin's dominance has begun a rapid decline, and we are currently witnessing an attempt to break out of a parallel price channel. If it manages to consolidate below the lower boundary of the channel, we can expect further declines in dominance, which would indicate the start of significant capital flows from Bitcoin to altcoins. What are Bitcoin's long-term growth targets? Above the current all-time high (ATH), there are no resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to determine growth targets, we will rely on trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, analysis of large order block clusters in exchange order books, and, of course, indicators: Fibonacci Extension Levels: The nearest growth targets for Bitcoin are the 1.61 and 1.78 Fibonacci extension levels, which lie in the range of $104,000–$112,000. Global Trendline: The next target could be the global trendline drawn based on the peaks of the previous growth cycle. A test of this trendline might occur around the $120,000 level. RSI Analysis: The RSI indicator is currently about 18% away from its resistance trendline. Translating this to Bitcoin’s price chart, this corresponds to a range of approximately $114,000–$120,000. This is where a test of the resistance line may occur, as observed in all previous Bitcoin market cycles. 💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels The Fear and Greed Index remains in the Greed Zone at 76. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has grown to $3.37 billion, while the Bitcoin Dominance Index has fallen to 56.18. According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in the order books, the largest blocks are at levels 100,000 and 120,000, and the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand zone: 80,000 - 90,000 🔴 Supply zone: 100,000 - 150,000 Levels for long positions: 90,000 - psychological support level 88,000 - large support block 60,000 - large support block Levels for short positions: 100,000 - largest resistance block 110,000 - large resistance block 120,000 - 100,000 - ascending trend line of resistance 📊 Fundamental analysis In November, Bitcoin ETFs recorded an inflow of $6.1 billion—the highest monthly figure since the instrument's launch in January. This indicates growing investor confidence in the asset while favoring the security of regulated ETFs over direct BTC purchases. Record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs could support a BTC rally above $100,000. Ethereum and Altcoin Investment Trends Investment inflows into Ethereum (ETH)-focused products reached $634 million, pushing the total for this year to over $2.2 billion, surpassing the previous record of $2 billion set in 2021. Similarly, Ripple (XRP)-based crypto funds received record-breaking investments of $95 million. This surge may be linked to preparations for ETFs on other cryptocurrencies, potentially accelerating the onset of an altseason. Regulatory and Macroeconomic Developments SEC Leadership Announcement: Tomorrow, information may emerge regarding the new chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a key financial regulator overseeing the crypto market. Under current chair Gary Gensler, the SEC has intensified crypto market regulation. The appointment of a crypto-friendly commissioner could boost market sentiment and further support the start of an altseason. U.S. Labor Market Data: Labor market reports are set to be released this week, serving as a critical indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. A continuation of rate cuts by the Fed would likely bolster overall growth in the cryptocurrency market. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates: ➤ 12/04, 21:45 - Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. ➤ 12/06, 21:45 - US Unemployment Rate for November. ➤ 12/18, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision. ➤ 12/18, 21:00 - US GDP (q/q) (Q3) ➤ 01/29/2025, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision. 📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator: In November, the price of Bitcoin was in an upward trend. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. 😎 Total price movement by all signals: + 54.92% Maximum price movement: + 42.10% Average price movement: + 13.73% In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
by TradeINEX
Don't give up and buy TLTWe have a new rate cut, congratulations! The Fed rate is now 4.5%. What is happening in the market, and why does the effect of the rate seem to "work in reverse"? After all, TLT should have been above 100 long ago, especially after so many rate cuts. Yes, that's entirely correct, so why are all our accounts in the red? First and foremost—the most important thing—never sell U.S. Treasury bonds at a loss. Second, the market is "inclined" or "disposed" to believe that the Fed is either lying or doesn't have a proper grasp of the situation. Due to domestic political changes and the effects of Trump's policies, inflation is expected to remain high for a prolonged period—potentially above 3%. Even in that scenario, a yield of 4.7% or higher on 20+ year bonds remains attractive. More on that later, but in the real sector, following the elections, the Chinese yuan has already depreciated by over 5% against the U.S. dollar. RIGHT NOW, the U.S. debt market is the most attractive market with its 3.1% economic growth.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by gorgevorgian
4
EUR/JPY restructure into an ascending channelHi guys, we will be looking again in the EUR/JPY Pair as it has broken it's structure quite heavily compared to my previous analysis. Currently we have two options because the pair has dropped towards the lower support level, which we find big amount of support coming in from the buyers. Option 1 - Entry from the current price with two targets : Target 1 : 159.453 Target 2 : 162. 500 After the 2nd target is reached we should be fully in the ascending pattern then we would revisit with new targets towards the upper resistance Option 2 - Entry at 155.300 when we physically touch the strong support level and then enter in a full on ascending / bull trend all the way to 162.500 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
Long
by DG55Capital
USUAL | UNUSUAL PUMPsUSUAL Suspects: The Stablecoin Revolution Nobody Saw Coming! After 300% pump lets see whats unusual here USUAL is like the cool kid of stablecoin projects focused on making secure, decentralized fiat stablecoins while letting the community call the shots. The magic happens with the USUAL token, giving users control over governance. Using multi chain tech, USUAL grabs Real World Assets (RWAs) from big league players like BlackRock and Mountain Protocol, turning them into USD0 a stablecoin that’s on-chain, transparent, and way more trustworthy than your flaky ex. Why Is USUAL "Unusually" Cool? 1.Multi-Chain Mastery: Plays nice with multiple blockchains, so USD0 isn’t stuck on one network like your grandma’s ancient landline. 2.RWA Wizardry: Collects tokenized real-world assets from legit pros and backs the stablecoin like it’s guarding Fort Knox. 3.Power to the People: Governance is decentralized, meaning you (yes, YOU!) help steer the ship with the USUAL token 4.OnChain Transparency: USD0 is like that one friend who overshares—totally transparent and verifiable, plus it’s compatible with your favorite DeFi apps. 5. Community Takeover:It’s all about the users power, value, and decision-making are in your hands. No middlemen allowed. USUAL’s Price Parade - Today’s Price: $0.603 (up a spicy +23.8% in the last 24 hours). - All-Time High: $0.632 (Dec 9, 2024 so close, yet so far at -4.57%). - Supply Stats: 494.6M tokens circulating, with a max supply of 4B tokens. - Trading Volume: $52.76M in the last 24 hours, traded across 2 markets and 4 exchanges (Binance being the star) - Market Cap: $299M, grabbing 0.01% of the crypto market pie. Basically, USUAL is doing the stablecoin hustle while keeping things unusually exciting
BINANCE:USUALUSDTLong
by moonypto
NVDA AI Revolution: Which Stocks Will Lead the Charge in 2025?AI Revolution: Which Stocks Will Lead the Charge in 2025? "AI isn’t the future; it’s the now, and it's flipping the investment world on its head like a rogue AI flipping through data." Introduction Artificial Intelligence is not just transforming industries; it's becoming the heartbeat of innovation. In 2024, Nvidia and Microsoft stand out, but diving into AI stocks requires a keen eye for both opportunity and jeopardy. Let's dissect their dominion, strategies, and financial health to guide your investment journey. Nvidia: The Engine of AI Nvidia’s GPUs are more than just hardware; they're the fuel driving the AI engine across sectors. Market Dominance: With an expected 64% of the AI server market, Nvidia's GPUs, particularly the H100, are the industry's gold standard for AI training. Financial Highlights: P/E Ratio: At 30.09, Nvidia's stock might be running on hype or genuine growth. Free Cash Flow: A staggering $33.73 billion, giving Nvidia the muscle to innovate relentlessly. Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 17.22, reflecting aggressive growth funding through debt. Future Outlook: The upcoming H200 chip could further cement Nvidia's lead, but at what cost to valuation? 💡 “Nvidia isn't just selling hardware; they're selling the future of AI computation.” Microsoft: AI's Silent Integrator Microsoft isn't just playing the AI game; they're changing the rules, embedding AI where you least expect it. AI Integration: Through Azure and tools like Copilot, Microsoft is making AI as ubiquitous as electricity. Financial Insights: ROIC: An astonishing 130%, showcasing unparalleled capital efficiency. Net Income Margin: 56% - Microsoft turns more than half its revenue into profit, a testament to its operational prowess. Cash Position: With $39 billion in cash, Microsoft is ready for any strategic move or shareholder reward. Strategic Alliances: Leveraging partnerships like OpenAI, Microsoft is pushing AI's boundaries. 💡 “Microsoft isn’t just adopting AI; it's making AI adopt us.” The Broader AI Ecosystem Google ( NASDAQ:GOOG ): Using AI to enhance search and cloud, potentially rivaling Microsoft's Azure. Meta ( NASDAQ:META ): Innovating with generative AI in social platforms and VR. IonQ ( NYSE:IONQ ): Bridging AI with quantum computing for groundbreaking computational power. 💡 “In the AI race, today's leaders could be tomorrow's followers.” Risks in the AI Investment Arena Overvaluation: Nvidia's high P/E might signal a bubble waiting to burst. Regulatory Challenges: As AI grows, so does the regulatory scrutiny, potentially slowing down innovation. Market Saturation: With AI becoming mainstream, distinguishing between real innovators and opportunists becomes crucial. 💡 “Investing in AI is like betting on tech; some will soar, others might crash and burn.” Conclusion Nvidia and Microsoft are pivotal in the AI landscape, but the field is broader and riskier than it seems. Understanding these nuances will be key to navigating 2025’s investment landscape.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by DCAChampion
Fed triggers US equity sell-offLast night the Federal Reserve surprised no one when it announced a 25 basis point rate cut, taking the Fed Funds band down to 4.25-4.50%, back to levels last seen two years ago. But that wasn’t the main story. The big news came with the release of the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This showed that the majority of FOMC members now expect just 50 basis points-worth of rate cuts between now and the end of next year. While this is what the CME’s FedWatch Tool has been forecasting for a some time now, it represents a major change in the FOMC’s thinking since the last SEP from September. Back then, the forecast was for 100 basis points-worth of cuts in 2025. So this represents a significant hawkish change, and one that led to a slump in equity markets and precious metals, and a surge in the US dollar and bond yields. US stock indices registered their biggest one day declines since March 2020, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury broke above 4.50% to hit its highest level since May this year. If yields find a floor here and head higher, then they could become a big headwind for equity prices going into 2025. It’s worth considering just what a mess the Fed made of that September meeting. Not only was it far too dovish in its forecasts, once again appearing to underestimate the stickiness of inflation, but it also messed up the other side of its dual mandate, the labour side. It got completely blindsided by a couple of poor Non-Farm Payroll reports, to such an extent that it panicked and cut rates by 50 basis points rather than the 25 widely expected. That decision may have set up the central bank for yesterday’s hawkish shift, although in fairness there are several other factors, not all of them bad. Inflation has ticked up recently, which makes it harder for the Fed to justify easier monetary policy. But US growth is undoubtedly robust, while unemployment appears anchored at manageable levels. There is some uncertainty over what the incoming Trump administration may mean for the economy, but overall little has changed. The Fed can be blamed for some poor messaging, but then again investors have only heard what they wanted to hear, blocking out any negative signals. The market hasn’t suddenly woken up to a string of ‘unknown unknows’ or anything else so Rumsfeldian. Instead, the sell-off in equities looks more like a panicked response from a market priced to perfection. And while it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a bounce-back as we approach the Christmas break, the odds have certainly shortened on tops being in for all the major indices.
TRADENATIONSB:US500
by TradeNation
1
Daily Analysis of GBP to USD – Issue 173The analyst believes that the price of { GBPUSD } will increase in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Long
by MoonriseTA
24-12-17 Dax: Dax the "Max" (20 337 EUR)DAX40 one of the most import Index beneath MSCI, SPX und DJIA und Nikkei. German economy leads the european economy. For shure, the DAX has not the performance like an SPX. But the 2024 rise is very impressive. And if I look, what germans politicians did the last years and also actually, i am still stunning what real economy does. But overall, big tasks ahead. And at the moment,no signs for a radical new direction for all these companies in Germany: Less regulations, less laws, lower taxes, more flexibility in labour things, high energy prices etc. Over all - I am not convinced, that actual prices in Dax will represent the real situation. A correction for about 10-20 Percent ist more expected, than a further rise for about 10 Percent. Dan, 14.12.24
XETR:DAXShort
by Flyerdan
Daily Analysis of Gold Ounce to USD – Issue 173The analyst believes that the price of { XAUUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by MoonriseTA
Buy GBP/CHF Bullish PennatThe GBP/CHF pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent breakout from a well-defined Bullish Pennant pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.1427 2nd Support – 1.1475 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
13
Daily Analysis of Ethereum – Issue 233The analyst believes that the price of { ETHUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
BINANCE:ETHUSDShort
by MoonriseTA
MINA protocol with btc pairMina Protocol's Bright Future with Coinbase Support and Unique Technology Introduction: In the ever-evolving blockchain landscape, projects that offer technical innovations and enjoy strong backing often have promising futures. Mina Protocol is one such project, leveraging its unique technology and the support of one of the industry's most prominent players, Coinbase, to secure a special place in the cryptocurrency market. This article explores why Mina Protocol is poised for significant success by 2025. Mina Protocol's Unique Technology: A standout feature of Mina Protocol is its use of zk-SNARKs technology, a zero-knowledge proof system. This enables Mina to offer a blockchain with an exceptionally small size (approximately 22 kilobytes), which is a groundbreaking development compared to traditional blockchains. This feature not only improves scalability but also allows more users to participate using regular hardware. As a result, Mina is known as the "lightest blockchain in the world." The Importance of Coinbase Support: Coinbase, one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges, has not only shown interest in Mina Protocol but also directly supported the project. This backing has two significant impacts: Building Investor Trust: Coinbase's support acts as a strong endorsement, attracting institutional and retail investors alike. Increased Accessibility: Listing Mina on Coinbase's platform has made the cryptocurrency more accessible to users and enhanced its liquidity. Growth Projections for 2025: Given its technical features and strategic backing, Mina Protocol is on a path to success. Key factors likely to drive its substantial growth by 2025 include: High Scalability: Mina's ability to handle a large volume of transactions without increasing blockchain size makes it ideal for broader applications, including DeFi and NFTs. Focus on Privacy: By leveraging zk-SNARKs, Mina offers robust privacy capabilities, catering to the growing demand for secure and private protocols. Increased Institutional Adoption: With support from Coinbase and expanding partnerships, Mina is well-positioned to capture the attention of major organizations and enterprises. Challenges: While Mina Protocol has a promising trajectory, it also faces challenges. Competition from other scalable blockchain projects and the need to attract more developers to build a stronger ecosystem are among the key hurdles. However, its innovative approach and existing support could turn these challenges into opportunities. Conclusion: With its advanced technology and strategic support from Coinbase, Mina Protocol stands out as one of the most promising blockchain projects. If it can address its challenges and expand its ecosystem, Mina is likely to experience remarkable growth and adoption by 2025. Investors and blockchain enthusiasts should closely monitor the developments of this project.
Long
by mehdi_kb