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Fundamental Market Analysis for December 13, 2024 USDJPYFading hopes of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December are putting the JPY bulls on the defensive. Higher U.S. bond yields are supporting the dollar and putting pressure on the low-yielding yen. The Japanese yen (JPY) continues to defend against its U.S. counterpart, lifting the USD/JPY pair closer to 153.000 or a new monthly peak during the Asian session on Friday. Recent media reports suggest that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting next week, which in turn continues to undermine the Yen. In addition, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be less dovish continue to support rising US Treasury yields and put further pressure on the low-yielding yen. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey released today showed that business confidence of Japan's major manufacturers improved slightly in the fourth quarter of 2024. This fits well with the central bank's plans to gradually raise interest rates and could deter yen bears from aggressive bets. In addition, lingering geopolitical risks and concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans should help limit losses for the safe-haven yen ahead of next week's key central bank events - the Fed and Bank of Japan meetings. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 153.000, trading mainly with Buy orders.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Alt season is not coming (yet)..Analyzing Fibonacci levels and trading volumes, it doesn’t look like an alt season is imminent. For now, a monthly close above resistance seems necessary, and as BINANCE:BTCUSDT rises, Bitcoin dominance will likely increase. While this might lead to some minor gains in altcoins, they’re unlikely to be substantial. Two scenarios could unfold: 1. Short Alt Spring: Bitcoin sees a sharp rise followed by a short decline. This could bring a brief uptick for altcoins, but they would then experience a period of stagnation ("bleeding") before a full-scale alt season arrives. 2. Delayed Super Alt Season: A more robust alt season could happen directly, though with a slight delay. Check the “golden pocket” (between the yellow Fibonacci levels) for crucial resistance and support zones. Aside from technicals, consider the macroeconomic context: the Fed’s potential rate cuts and quantitative easing are expected to take time, meaning that a significant increase in money supply could be delayed. Remember to do your own research (DYOR)! NFA.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by mayslioglu
8
Risk-On or Risk-Off? Stocks vs. Bonds Introduction: With stocks reaching new all-time highs and market sentiment edging into euphoria, it's an opportune time to revisit a classic risk-on/risk-off indicator: the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . This ratio provides a clear view of investor sentiment: Risk-On: When SPY outperforms TLT, investors favor equities for their higher potential returns. Risk-Off: When TLT outperforms SPY, it reflects rising risk aversion and a move toward safer assets like bonds. Analysis: Uptrend Intact: Currently, the SPY-to-TLT ratio remains in a clear uptrend, defined by a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. This sustained upward momentum signals continued confidence in equities. Ascending Channel: The ratio is also rising within an ascending price channel, a bullish continuation pattern. As long as this structure holds, the market can be interpreted as firmly in risk-on mode. What to Watch: Channel Support: A breakdown below the channel’s lower boundary would be the first sign of caution. Higher Highs: If the ratio continues to push upward, it would confirm further bullish sentiment in equities. Conclusion: The SPY-to-TLT ratio is a key barometer for risk appetite, and its sustained uptrend within the ascending channel is a clear signal of the market’s risk-on posture. As long as this trend holds, equities remain in a favorable position. However, traders should stay vigilant for any signs of a breakdown, which could hint at rising market caution. Are you aligned with this risk-on outlook, or do you see potential cracks forming? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key trendlines for support and resistance) Tags: #SPY #TLT #RiskOn #RiskOff #Stocks #Bonds #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
AMEX:SPY
by Richtv_official
Cloudflare (NET) AnalysisCompany Overview: Cloudflare NYSE:NET , a global leader in cybersecurity, content delivery networks (CDN), and edge computing, is well-positioned to capitalize on increasing digital transformation and growing demand for secure, efficient cloud infrastructure. Key Growth Catalysts: Strategic AI Partnerships 🤝 Cloudflare’s collaboration with Microsoft Azure enhances its AI infrastructure, fostering innovation and bolstering its competitive edge in enterprise cloud solutions. Zero Trust Leadership in Cybersecurity 🔐 Cloudflare’s Zero Trust platform addresses growing enterprise needs amid rising cyber threats and increased remote work adoption. Advanced threat intelligence and access controls make it a leader in next-gen cybersecurity solutions. Edge Computing & IoT Opportunities 🌐 Edge computing solutions are experiencing strong adoption, fueled by: Growing demand for 5G networks and the IoT revolution. The edge computing market is projected to reach $87.3 billion by 2026. Cloudflare’s focus on reducing latency and enhancing network efficiency positions it to capture market share. Global Expansion & Untapped Markets 🌍 New data centers in underserved regions expand Cloudflare’s global reach, improving service delivery and unlocking revenue opportunities in untapped markets. Investment Outlook: Bullish Stance: We are bullish on NET above $90.00-$91.00, supported by strong positioning in AI, cybersecurity, and edge computing, coupled with robust global expansion strategies. Upside Target: Our price target is **$145.00-$150.00
NYSE:NETLong
by Richtv_official
GOLD AWAITING FOR INTEREST RATE CUTSGOLDEN PLAN: 13-Dec-2024 / Friday Personal comments by Pips & Profit: The price has recovered positively during the week around 2700, sideways and accumulated further. Awaiting for information about interest rate cut in December 2024. PLAN FOR THE DAY: Sell Gold Zone 2701-2704 SL: 2709 (Scalp Entry) TPs: 2695 / 2690 / 2680 Sell Gold Zone 2715-2722 SL: 2728 TPs: 2709 / 2698 / 2688 Buy Gold Zone 2656-2653 SL: 2643 TPs: 2666 / 2678 / 2692 Let's support "Pips & Profit" by Like & Comments. Thanks Everyone.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by PIPS_n_PROFIT
3
DXY- Will it continue up into year's end?December is usually a bearish month for the USD. However, this time, the situation could be different. The USD seems well-supported by fundamentals, and the technicals are looking bullish. Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see that after the local high at 108, the index started to fall and broke below the support from the April-May highs (old resistance). However, after hitting a low at the 105.50 zone, the USD Index reversed, breaking above the falling trendline of the corrective falling wedge and also reclaiming the 106.40 resistance. At this moment, there is a high chance of upward continuation, and as long as the 106–106.40 zone remains intact, the outlook remains valid.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
World gold prices decrease when the USD increasesWorld gold prices fell more than 1% on Thursday as investors rushed to take profits after prices hit a 5-week high. "Gold still has an upward trend. However, last night's decline may have occurred because investors sold to take profits ahead of next week's meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED)" - Zain Vawda - analyst market analysis at MarketPulse commented. This expert believes that the market is shifting its focus to next year's interest rate plan from the FED. This will determine the sustainability of the current uptrend. According to the CME FedWatch interest rate tracking tool, investors currently forecast a 98% probability of the FED cutting interest rates in December. In its "2025 Outlook" report released on Thursday, the World Gold Council (WGC) said the gold market will face two distinct scenarios next year as uncertainty dominates investor sentiment. . However, their base case predicts gold prices will move relatively neutrally if current market conditions continue. “The market consensus is that macroeconomic variables such as GDP, yields and inflation, if viewed in simple terms, suggest that gold will have positive but modest growth in 2025. 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2698 - 2700🔥 💵 TP1: 2680 💵 TP2: 2670 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2710
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
BTC Bullish Flag Alert! Big Move Incoming?Bitcoin has been consolidating for the past 1-2 weeks, forming a bullish flag on the 1-hour timeframe—a classic continuation pattern often signaling a strong upward breakout. 🟢 Key Highlights No Bearish Signals: The current price action shows no signs of weakness. Fundamentals Align: BTC remains bullish overall, backed by favorable macro trends. Breakout Setup: Watch for a confirmed breakout above the flag's resistance to ride the next potential wave. 📈 Our Plan 1️⃣ Wait for Confirmation: Breakouts are most reliable when supported by high volume. 2️⃣ Target Levels: Post-breakout, BTC could target higher resistance zones, aligning with the macro trend. 3️⃣ Risk Management: Place stop-losses below support to manage potential downside risks. 🔔 Call to Action Are you ready for the next BTC rally? Let us know your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to like if this idea resonates!
Long
by mudusir
GBPJPY BUYS TO 194.600?Trading Plan for GBP BASELINE 🎯 Current short term sentiment bias and upcoming risk events (previous # & consensus expectations) that can impact said sentiment Current Short-Term Sentiment Bias : - The British pound is trading around $1.276, near a one-month high, driven by expectations of a cautious BoE. - Investors are focused on upcoming UK economic data, particularly GDP and manufacturing production for October, which are expected to show modest growth. Upcoming Risk Events : - GDP (MoM) (Oct): Consensus 0.1%, Previous -0.1% - GDP (YoY) (Oct): Consensus 1.6%, Previous 1.0% - Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct): Consensus 0.2%, Previous -1.8% - Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct): Consensus 0.3%, Previous -0.5% - Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct): Consensus 0.2%, Previous -1.0% - Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Oct): Consensus 0.9%, Previous -0.7% - Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Oct): Consensus 0.2%, Previous 0.1% SURPRISE ⚡ What outcome of the risk event will surprise the markets based on the baseline Positive Data Surprise : - Outcome: If the data beats expectations across the board, it will likely reinforce market expectations of no rate cuts next week. - Market Reaction: Continued pound strength. - Trade Pair: GBP/JPY - The yield spread between UK and Japan bonds suggests potential upside for this pair. Negative Data Surprise : - Outcome: If the data misses expectations, the pound could weaken as investors speculate on a more dovish BoE outlook. - Market Reaction: Pound weakness. - Trade Pair: GBP/NZD - The yield spread between UK and New Zealand bonds favors a downside move in this pair. BIGGER PICTURE 🌐 Does this outcome changes the larger macro-fundamental bias Macro-Fundamental Bias: - Current Expectation: The BoE is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.75% at its next meeting on December 19. - Future Outlook: Governor Andrew Bailey has hinted at gradual rate cuts starting in 2025, with markets pricing in three 25-basis-point cuts by the end of next year. - Implications: A positive data surprise would support the current expectation of no immediate rate cuts, while a negative surprise could lead to speculation about a more dovish stance from the BoE.
by Midas_Macro
Chainlink (LINK): Massive Inverse Head and Shoulders on Weekly 🔥 Chainlink (LINK): Massive Inverse Head and Shoulders on Weekly Chart! Bullish Chainlink (LINK) is showing a textbook inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the weekly timeframe—a classic reversal pattern signaling a potential long-term bullish. 📊 Bullish Breakout: Volume Surge: A breakout accompanied by high volume strengthens the signal. This rally could act as a stepping stone toward retesting its ATH of $52 ⚡ Macro & Fundamentals: Chainlink continues to lead the oracle space with increasing adoption, staking developments, and real-world use cases. Combined with a technically strong pattern, this positions LINK as a major contender for the next big leg up in the crypto market. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile, and you should carefully assess your risk tolerance before entering any trade. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
Long
by karmatseringhyolmo
GBPUSD - CONTINUATION PATTERN BULLISH FLAG Analysis GBPUSD 4HR Bullish Flag: This is a consolidation phase often seen in uptrends. It typically signals a continuation of the bullish trend. Liquidity Levels: The levels at 1.27375 and 1.28111 seem to represent potential targets where price may react or reverse. Projections: The blue zig-zag lines depict the anticipated path of price action within the flag pattern, aiming for a breakout above the resistance zone. The bullish flag is a continuation pattern formed after a strong upward trend. It typically signifies that the market is taking a breather before resuming its previous bullish direction. Liquidity Levels ($$$): 1.26438 (Support): This represents the lower bound of liquidity, where buy-side interest might accumulate. Price could potentially dip to this level before reversing upward. 1.27375 (Intermediate Resistance): A liquidity zone where the price might face some hesitation or consolidation during its move upward. 1.28111 (Target Resistance): This is the higher liquidity area and potential target for the bullish breakout. These levels are marked as potential zones of price reaction or reversal based on market interest and order flow. For confirmation of the bullish breakout: Look for a strong candlestick close above the flag's upper trendline or the 1.27375 resistance level. Increased trading volume during the breakout is an additional sign of strength. If price closes above the 1.28111 level, it might signal continuation toward higher highs. Risk Management Stop Loss: A logical stop-loss can be placed slightly below the 1.26438 liquidity support level, as a break below this may invalidate the bullish flag pattern. Take Profit: Targets can be set near or above the 1.28111 level based on risk-reward preferences.
Long
by hafidzali2020
Gold Trading Idea: Is a New ATH on the HorizonGold prices took a breather on Thursday, snapping a four-day rally and dropping over 1%. This pullback comes amid mixed US economic data, with softer-than-expected job reports and higher producer prices creating uncertainty. Profit-taking ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting further pressured prices, with XAU/USD currently trading around $2,684. Fundamental Insight Despite the recent dip, Gold remains a safe haven asset in the face of geopolitical tensions and central banks’ dovish monetary stance. The European Central Bank’s third consecutive rate cut and expectations of the Federal Reserve reducing rates by 25 basis points next week could set the stage for renewed upside momentum. As we edge closer to year-end, political tensions and easing monetary policies globally could fuel Gold’s potential to challenge new all-time highs. Technical Outlook On the charts, Gold respected the $2,720 key level, forming a double-top pattern reminiscent of a "batman face." Key levels to watch are: Resistance: $2,720 Support: $2,689 and $2,610 A break above $2,720 could signal a bullish continuation, while a dip to $2,610 may offer a strong buying opportunity for long-term traders. Stay tuned for more trading insights and strategies!
TVC:GOLD
by InwardTrader
1
GbpUsd- Where to sell?The GBP/USD currency pair has been in a downtrend for quite some time. Recently, however, after dropping just below the important psychological level of 1.25, the pair started to reverse and show some upward movement. While this rise is notable, it is important to recognize that it appears to be corrective in nature. The price is currently forming a rising wedge pattern, which typically signals that the uptrend may soon lose momentum. Based on this technical structure, I expect the downtrend to resume in the near future. In my opinion, any rallies above the 1.28 level should be viewed as potential selling opportunities. A stop loss placed above the 1.29 level would ensure a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3 could be achieved if we target the recent low.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
3
Sell EUR/USD Channel BrekoutThe EUR/USD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0482 2nd Support – 1.0445 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
32
Will Joey help NU push on, or will they need even more Friends?NYSE:NU has had a good run rising 50% last 12 months, however since releasing positive earnings a month ago the share is down 25%. Among reasons for this is that the AR per customer has dropped from all-time-high of $11.40 to $11 in the last two quarters. Also, they are struggling to attract high(er)-income customers, having their fair share of customers in the low-income bracket. In their key market Brazil, a whooping 56% of the adult population has a credit card from Nubank ( NYSE:NU ’s brand), accomplished in just 10 years. However expansion into other markets is proving difficult, and the company is facing headwinds in Mexico. The somewhat known investor Warren Buffet is an investor, and he recently sold 20% of his share in the company. This could just be rebalancing after a good run but is worth mentioning. Technically the stock is not looking its best at the moment. After a steady growth pretty much since January 2023, we have now seen a steeper correction than usual (on the daily chart). Price has dropped from an ATH of $16.15 to currently $11.99. This meant price dropped below the support of the rising baseline and is now in consolidation. This consolidation can be viewed as a bearish rectangle, indicating a potential break to the downside of the rectangle. Should this happen, there is some support around $10.50 with next support at $8.50. Should price however break to the upside, the mentioned baseline will serve as resistance. The stock is approaching oversold levels on the RSI, and we have seen bounces in such situations before, however the drop before has been steeper this time. Fundamentally I believe the company might have hit if not a wall, then some serious obstacles in expanding their business, both at home in Brazil and internationally. Key numbers are rising, and this might be a sign to the upside potential, if they can be maintained and reached. Technically it looks bad in my view. I believe price will break to the downside of the rectangle and have my eyes on $8.50. On the 4H chart we saw a brief break to the upside of the rectangle, but price very quickly retreated down.
NYSE:NUShort
by WeRideAtDawn
Questions Halving Promotors Never Want to Answer Many people here are eager to explain the bets people should make based on the halving but they're never willing to answer the obvious questions about the hypothesis. Here's a collection of questions I must have asked here 100 times in replies to my posts that I've still not gotten an answer to: Why the indices correlation? When you run an analysis on SPX price moves and BTC price moves post halving, they have a coefficient of 0.85. This means all the statistical evidence points towards BTC moving in tandem with risk on/off cycles in equities. ----- Why do people ignore this correlation when it is as reliable (or more) than the halving? Why does the exact same moves in indices and BTC get treated totally differently? When has the halving thesis ever deviated from simple SPX correlation? If there are no deviations, why isn't it best to assume it's related to SPX tracking? ----- Why would the entire market know an event to move price higher was coming and then wait an exact number of days to take action on that? If you've been in the market any length of time you'll have surely heard the saying "Buy the rumour, sell the news". You may have also heard, "Markets prefer to travel than suddenly arrive". This has been a guiding principle of all markets for all time. Why is the halving a "Sell the known coming event, then ignore the news for x days and then buy the event after the fact? ----- Given all halving dates are already known, why isn't this priced in now? Why in the biggest FOMO market there is would there be this organised "Waiting period"? Why has game theory and market dynamics not led to front running? How do these supply/demand dynamics reflect anything about S/D known in markets? ----- What are the failure conditions of the halving bet? I have some of the dumbest convos on this. People insist I MUST BE LONG NOW to not miss out on the halving and then when I ask them what level price can not go under inside of the halving theory ... it gets real fuzzy. And when you dig into it, the answer generally ends up being "Up to 70% drawdown".... Okay - so trying a short here is fine inside of that, right? ----- Why are people making all knowing statements about exactly what should happen and unable to give the most basic risk control? What happens to people who listen to you if you're wrong? Do you have plans to let them know if the theory fails? If not, why are you not telling them the risk if wrong is 70% (Inside of accepted risk). And I suppose the idea is to just entirely ignore the limitless risk if the whole thesis is wrong? ----- When has the BTC halving idea ever overcome a SPX drop? I've been told various times in 2020 there was a deviation from the halving cycle because there was a swan event. Fair enough ... but then this means that the halving forecast will only be right if nothing broadly bearish happens, right? In any instances where we've had halving theory vrs indices bear move - following the indices has won. ----- Why is this not considered evidence against the thesis and for the correlation? Why are you not caveating your forecasts with this known risk? Is it far to say the BTC cycles thesis can easily fail if there's outside events? ----- These things simply do not make sense. They're elephants in the room. People act like the cycles thing is some sort of esoteric knowledge that only a select few know. That's nonsense. I have a kid cousin who can't tie his shoelaces yet but can tell you what the halving forecast is. He does not really understand everything he's saying. He's just repeating things he's heard ... but, that's kinda true for most of you to be honest. Because it takes about 5 mins to understand the halving thesis. Takes about another 1 min to come up with the obvious tests and objections and then maybe takes 10 mins to test those and highlight the flaws. There are some people who've spent literally hours and hours on my posts berating me about why I should be blindly following the halving and in all of this time they've not answered the questions I think should be thought of in the first minute. And I do ask them. Directly and repeatedly. They change the topic or go quiet. To be honest, most of the time they start to drop insults. It's wild, when you think about it. "I am heralding in the future of finance and here to tell you about this halving cycle which I know everything about and expect to be infallible". "Okay. Could you answer a few questions I have about this?" "LMAO. Have fun staying poor". === Think about how disconnected the way BTC bulls act is relative to what they proport to be a part of. Why are you not eager to answer these common sense questions?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by holeyprofit
3