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Gold (MGCG2025): A Technical Perspective and Market OutlookGold prices have seen a slight decline today, with spot gold trading down 0.3% at $2,672.25 per ounce and U.S. gold futures dropping 0.6% to $2,692.70 as of 0914 GMT. Despite the dip, gold remains on track for a weekly gain, fueled by anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting. The Fed is widely expected to deliver its third rate cut of the year, a move that has underpinned bullion’s appeal. Notably, gold reached a five-week high in the previous session, spurring profit-taking and subsequent price adjustments. Weekly Overview Gold has risen over 1% this week, demonstrating resilience amidst market uncertainties. The five-week high indicates strong bullish sentiment, but the recent pullback suggests a healthy correction before the market determines its next direction. Technical Analysis: 1-Hour Time Frame On the 1-hour chart, gold appears to be gravitating toward a supply zone between $2,700 and $2,711. This range represents a critical resistance area, where selling pressure is likely to increase. The price action in this zone will be pivotal in defining short-term market sentiment. Key Observations: Supply Zone: $2,700 - $2,711. Downward Target: If gold fails to break above the supply zone, the likely move will be a short towards $2,680. This level represents a strong support zone, aligning with recent price activity and technical indicators. Indicators: Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions as the price approaches the $2,700-$2,711 zone, further supporting the case for a pullback. Trading Strategy For traders, the current market setup presents both opportunities and risks: Short Positions: Consider entering short positions if gold shows rejection at the $2,700-$2,711 supply zone, targeting $2,680. A tight stop-loss above $2,711 is recommended to manage risk. Watch for Breakouts : If gold breaks above $2,711 with strong volume, it could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, invalidating the short bias. Final Thoughts Gold’s performance this week highlights its role as a safe-haven asset in the face of macroeconomic uncertainties. The Fed’s policy meeting next week will likely be a significant driver of gold’s trajectory. While the immediate technical outlook suggests a potential pullback, traders should remain vigilant and adapt to evolving market conditions.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2025
by yojavi
GOLD → False breakout and negative fundamental backgroundFX:XAUUSD is correcting after a false breakout of resistance. This is also supported by negative fundamentals. Will there be a pullback or will the decline continue? Optimism over China's economic stimulus is waning amid growing fears of a trade war between the US and China. Expectations of a hawkish Fed interest rate next week helped boost the US dollar, leading to a corrective decline in the gold price.Markets now believe the Fed may send a hawkish signal by signaling a pause in January after PPI came in higher than expected Technically gold is still inside the channel, consolidation continues. Focus on 2658-2660 support, below which there is a huge pool of liquidity that may not let the price down on the first try Resistance levels: 2675, 2682, 2699 Support levels: 2658, 2636 From the support 2658 may form a correction from which will depend on the further development of events: if the correction will be small and the price will quickly return to 2658, it will increase the chances of support breakout and further fall, for example, to 2636. But, if gold can consolidate above 2682 and consolidate above the local high, the price may head for a retest of the high Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
1
USDCHF → Breakout of wedge resistance. CPI aheadFX:USDCHF is showing positive signs of willingness to continue the uptrend. The dollar is consolidating in the meantime in anticipation of CPI, which creates risks for us The currency pair is testing the support at 0.877 as part of the correction. A false breakdown and a reversal pattern is formed, which indicates the end of the correction. The price updates the local lows, and on the 4-hour timeframe it enters the realization phase after breaking the wedge resistance. The focus is on 0.882 - 0.8848. If the bulls keep the defense above this zone even after the news, the growth of the currency pair will continue in the future, as the key liquidity zones are still untested Resistance levels: 0.8848, 0.8887 Support levels: 0.882, 0.880 CPI is ahead and traders are not yet ready to take active action prematurely. The report may form a medium-term potential. A break of 0.8848 will be the trigger for continued upside. But, the structure will be broken if the market breaks 0.876 Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
2
ECB impact on IBEX 35 and EURUSDThe European Central Bank (ECB) has taken a definite path towards monetary easing under the leadership of Christine Lagarde, whose dovish (stimulus) policy is designed to address the eurozone's economic slowdown without compromising strategic sustainability objectives. The recent rate cuts, combined with the rollback of the €1.85 trillion debt purchase program, reflect an expansionary stance that seeks to sustain growth, finance sustainable projects and ensure economic stability. The dovish policy and its connection to the Green Deal and Mercosur Lagarde's stance, characterized by an accommodative monetary policy, is manifested in a series of decisions aimed at easing financial conditions. The re-orientation of the debt purchase program, initially designed to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, is now focused on supporting strategic sectors such as agriculture and the ecological transition, fundamental pillars of the European Green Deal. In addition, this policy fosters synergies with the Mercosur-EU agreement, which prioritizes agricultural and sustainable trade. The funds redistributed by the ECB reinforce support for the modernization of the agricultural sector, facilitating the transition to more sustainable practices in line with the European Commission's climate objectives. Impact on EURUSD and financial markets The ECB's dovish stance puts pressure on the euro against the dollar, maintaining a clear, albeit moderate, bearish path. However, this strategy seeks to create a low interest rate environment that facilitates the financing of green and sustainable projects, consolidating the perception of stability in the Eurozone. In the short term, the EUR/USD could face fluctuations, but in the long term, the flow of sustainable investments could support a moderate recovery of the euro. The ECB's expansionary policy also encourages appetite for riskier assets, which could translate into a strengthening of equity markets. From a technical perspective, the dollar has tested the lows of 1.04525 in the wake of the news, moving sideways in today's morning session. The IBEX 35 and the key levels to watch The IBEX 35, although affected by the volatility associated with the ECB's decisions, could benefit from strategic sectors linked to the Green Deal, such as energy and agriculture. The aid redistributed from the debt purchase program will boost key companies in the index, reinforcing the bullish outlook. From a technical perspective, the index maintains its consolidation in the range of 11,700-11,850 points, with crucial support at 11,625 points. As long as these levels are not lost, the market could resume its uptrend, in line with the optimism generated by the ECB's expansionary policy and the expectations of a Christmas Rally. Conclusion: Synergy between monetary policy and sustainability Lagarde's dovish policy not only addresses the economic slowdown, but also supports the European Union's strategic objectives. The redirection of the debt purchase program towards sustainable and agricultural projects strengthens the ECB's commitment to balanced growth, while fostering economic resilience in an uncertain global environment. For investors, this scenario offers opportunities in key sectors, supported by an expansive monetary framework and sustainable policies. Both the IBEX 35 and the EUR/USD remain watchful of the evolution of these measures, which could mark the beginning of a phase of a return to sustained and resilient growth in the eurozone. Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:ESP35
by ActivTrades
GBP/JPY Bearish Market Analysis Using Elliott Wave TheoryThe daily chart of GBP/JPY indicates a potential bearish trend unfolding in a classic 5-wave Elliott Wave pattern. Here’s the breakdown: Wave (1): The initial downward impulse wave demonstrates significant selling pressure, marking the start of the bearish trend. The decline is steep, indicating strong momentum in favor of the bears. Wave (2): Following Wave (1), a corrective wave retraces upward to approximately the Fibonacci 0.618 level. This retracement aligns with the expected behavior of Wave (2), which typically retraces 50-61.8% of Wave (1). Wave (3): The ongoing Wave (3) is projected to extend significantly lower, aiming for a Fibonacci 1.618 extension near the 184.000 level. Historically, Wave (3) is often the most aggressive and extended wave, driven by heightened bearish sentiment. Wave (4): After reaching the 184.000 level, a minor corrective move upward (Wave 4) is expected. This wave is generally shallow, potentially retracing to the 0.382-0.500 Fibonacci level of Wave (3). Wave (5): The final leg of the bearish trend targets the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, estimated around 177.000. This aligns with the ultimate downside potential of the bearish Elliott Wave cycle. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance Levels: 193.500 (0.236 Fibonacci level) 195.000 (previous high) Support Levels: 184.000 (1.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave 3) 180.000 (psychological level and key support) 177.000 (2.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave 5) Market Sentiment and Trade Strategy: The GBP/JPY pair appears to be forming a strong bearish setup, supported by Fibonacci levels and Elliott Wave projections. Traders may consider: Sell Positions: On retracements to the 0.382-0.500 Fibonacci level of Wave (3). Take Profit Targets: 184.000 and 177.000. Stop Loss Levels: Above 193.500 to mitigate risks. This bearish analysis assumes the pair respects the Elliott Wave structure and Fibonacci levels without invalidation from unexpected market events or strong bullish reversals.
Short
by Bitcoin_King01
1
DAX Fake-Out Long Term 25 YearsThe DAX index recently broke above a long-term resistance over the last 25 years. This breakout might be a **fakeout**, meaning it could reverse soon. **No strong macroeconomic reasons** seem to support this breakout. Long-term channels are usually hard to break without solid fundamentals. Market rallies like this often **retrace back into the channel**. Watch for a possible **reversal or consolidation** in the near term. What are your thoughts on this? Do you think this breakout is sustainable?
XETR:DAXShort
by Trade_Safari
XYO Outlook Downgraded to Short after Project Announcements on XAfter a series of X posts announcing an upcoming announcement relating to COINBASE:XYOUSD future projects in the development phase , we have finally learned some new data about the proposed Tesla collaboration project from our source and hype man @ScottScheper TL;DR - The Project will be independent of XY Labs - The proposed project vehicle will mine COINBASE:DOGEUSD or COINBASE:DOGEBTC , instead of COINBASE:XYOUSD as previously hinted at - The project’s new brand, website and marketing materials will not contain the term “XYO” - The project will follow a business model similar to Consensys in that they will promote the use of the underlying technology (eg. XYO) rather than developing it directly Read the full post here: x.com
COINBASE:XYOUSDShort
by LawrenceOfCoinrabia
1
XAUUSD - gold will be welcomed by the Federal Reserve!Gold is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its descending channel. If we maintain the drawn channel, we can witness the continuation of gold's decline and limited visibility of the bottom of the channel. Within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If it returns to the ceiling of the channel, it is possible to sell within the supply zone. 1. UBS Gold Forecast: UBS has projected that gold prices will reach $2,900. This prediction is based on factors such as the rising U.S. debt, strong demand from central banks, and declining interest rates. The institution also anticipates that U.S. inflation will decrease to 3% by the end of 2024, 2.6% by the end of 2025, and 2.5% throughout 2027. These figures are significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, suggesting that persistent inflation may pose a significant obstacle to the Fed’s efforts to control it. 2. U.S. CPI Report: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November highlighted the persistence of inflationary pressures. However, the details of the report appeared somewhat reassuring. CIBC Bank predicts that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by 0.25% in its December meeting, though subsequent rate cuts may be delayed due to the economy’s continued growth. 3. Ray Dalio on Gold: Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, referred to Bitcoin as a hard asset and stated that he prefers Bitcoin and gold over debt-based assets. He expressed concerns about a potential global debt crisis and emphasized the importance of shifting investments toward hard assets. Dalio pointed to unprecedented levels of debt in major countries such as the U.S. and China, deeming these debt levels unsustainable.Speaking at a financial conference in Abu Dhabi, he remarked, “It is impossible for these countries to avoid a debt crisis in the coming years, which will likely lead to a significant depreciation of their currencies.” 4. Dalio’s Evolving Stance on Bitcoin: Previously, Dalio believed that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin would not achieve the success many had hoped for. However, in recent years, he has become a prominent advocate of Bitcoin. In 2022, Dalio suggested allocating up to 2% of an investment portfolio to Bitcoin and gold as a reasonable strategy to combat inflation. He also reiterated his preference for gold over Bitcoin while emphasizing the importance of portfolio diversification. 5. Peter Schiff’s Warning on Bitcoin: Peter Schiff, a prominent gold advocate, has warned that creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S. could have negative consequences. On December 9, Schiff posted on the social media platform X, suggesting that the Biden administration should sell all Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government before leaving office. He stated, “This move would not only help reduce the 2024 budget deficit but also put an end to all the nonsense about establishing a ‘strategic reserve’ of Bitcoin, which is detrimental.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
EURUSD → False breakout of resistance. DowntrendFX:EURUSD is testing resistance in the downtrend phase. The maneuver ends with a false breakout of resistance at 1.0607 On the daily timeframe the price is squeezed between the strong resistance at 1.06011 and the local support at 1.05. So, if the bears keep the defense below the key resistance, the currency pair will continue to fall in the short term. The target in this case may be the area of 1.05 - 1.044. But, technically, the retest of 1.0607 may provoke a local breakout of the level and the price movement to the channel resistance against which there will also be a high probability of formation of a false breakout. Resistance levels: 1.0607, 1.965, 1.076 Support levels: 1.0448, 1.0331 Emphasis on resistance. Confirmation of the nearest resistance in the form of price consolidation below the level, if retested, could be a good entry zone. But if resistance is broken, the focus will shift to 1.065 - 1.067 Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:EURUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
1
GOLD → False breakout of resistance. Is a correction coming?FX:XAUUSD on the background of CPI on Thursday passes into a rally and realization of consolidation. The price is testing the resistance of 2721 and forms a false breakout. Traders in anticipation of PPI After the release of CPI, there is a 90% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25% next week. Gold hit a two-week high due to the Middle East, optimism over China's economic stimulus, CPI news. PPI and weekly jobless claims data also remain in focus, which could provide new hints on further Fed policy easing and the direction of the US dollar ahead of next week's Fed meeting. Sentiment around the Fed and risk trends will continue to play a decisive role in gold price dynamics. Technically, the price is in a global wide flat. A false breakdown of resistance is forming and a correction may form. Resistance levels: 2721 Support levels: 2700, 2682 The retest did not allow the bulls to pass through the resistance. In the near future the price may test the nearest support and form a bullish correction from which further growth or fall will be initiated. We should also take into account today's news Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
11
USDCHF - Looking for a weaker franc?!The USDCHF currency pair is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the midline of the channel and the supply zone and sell within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions for this currency pair. 1. U.S. Budget Deficit: The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit for November reached $367 billion, reflecting a 17% increase compared to the previous year. This rise is primarily attributed to calendar adjustments in benefit payments, which led to approximately $80 billion in additional government spending compared to November 2023. 2. BNP Paribas on Trump’s Tariff Policies: BNP Paribas believes market analysts have underestimated the implications of Trump’s tariff policies and need to take them more seriously. The bank predicts that Trump will implement a significant portion of his tariff threats, even if not entirely. BNP Paribas anticipates these policies will cause a permanent shock to consumer prices in the U.S. while having a temporary effect on inflation. Additionally, the bank expects the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate to remain at 4.5% in 2025, with the U.S. dollar likely to strengthen further, particularly against the Chinese yuan, Mexican peso, and Canadian dollar. 3. Swiss National Bank Cuts Interest Rates: On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut its interest rate by 50 basis points, marking the largest rate reduction in a decade. This move was aimed at staying ahead of potential rate cuts by other central banks and curbing the rising value of the Swiss franc.Most economists had predicted a smaller rate cut of 25 basis points. This reduction represents the most significant decrease in borrowing costs since the SNB’s emergency rate cut in January 2015. With inflationary pressures subsiding, the SNB opted for further monetary easing. Inflation in Switzerland fell to 0.7% in November and has remained within the bank’s target range of 0–2% since May 2023. The 0.5% rate cut aims to further stimulate the economy and boost labor market activity. 4. Remarks by SNB President: Thomas Schlegel, president of the Swiss National Bank, stated that the bank considers all aspects of the franc’s value, not just its exchange rate against the euro. While acknowledging the effectiveness of negative interest rates, Schlegel emphasized that the SNB does not favor them but would resort to such measures again if necessary, as they have helped reduce the franc’s attractiveness. 5. Managing the Swiss Franc’s Value: The Swiss franc, known as a global safe-haven currency, often appreciates during periods of market volatility, prompting the SNB to invest significant effort in managing its value. However, UBS has noted that this issue is no longer a major concern: “While the franc has strengthened against the euro, it has weakened against the U.S. dollar, maintaining a relatively stable trade-weighted exchange rate.”
Long
by Ali_PSND
SELL Signal – NZD/USD - Targeting 226 PipsEntry: 0.5764 TP: 0.5538 SL: 0.5889 Risk/Reward: 2.32 Reasoning: Monetary Divergence: The RBNZ has paused rate hikes, weakening NZD appeal, while USD strength is supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields and reduced Fed rate-cut expectations. Economic Weakness: New Zealand faces slowing growth, a weak housing market, and reduced demand from China. Bearish Momentum: NZD/USD recently broke two long-term support levels, suggesting further downside toward the 0.5538 demand zone. Strong USD: Global monetary easing (e.g., Switzerland, Canada, ECB) and policy concerns are bolstering the USD, further pressuring NZD.
Short
by ValchevFinance
GBPAUD - Employment in Australia is at good levels!The GBPAUD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of failure of this channel, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with appropriate risk reward. Continuing to move in the channel will pave the way for this currency pair to rise to the supply zone. Within the supply zone can look for GBPAUD sell positions. 1. Renewable Energy in the UK: British ministers are preparing for the largest renewable energy subsidy auction in the country’s history to achieve the challenging goal of generating clean electricity by 2030. Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, is set to launch the “2030 Clean Electricity Action Plan” today, aiming to decarbonize the power system by the end of the decade. A recent auction secured funding for 131 clean energy projects, guaranteeing 9.6 gigawatts of energy capacity, enough to power 11 million homes. Government officials plan to hold the largest auction to date by 2025 to meet the 2030 target of at least 95% low-carbon electricity. 2. Trump’s Proposed Tariffs: According to a Reuters survey, most economists believe that Trump’s proposed tariffs would have minimal impact on the UK economy. The survey revealed that the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by 2025, with reductions probably occurring quarterly at 25 basis points each. Additionally, all 71 economists surveyed predicted that the central bank would hold the interest rate steady at 4.75% during its December 19 meeting. 3. Challenges in AI Oversight: The UK is facing challenges in its efforts to expand global oversight of artificial intelligence. The country aims to strengthen its “Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute” (AISI) and solidify its position as a leading institution in researching AI risks. However, plans to open a new office in San Francisco have been delayed due to elections in the US and the UK, as well as hiring challenges. 4. London’s IPO Market Decline: The London Stock Exchange, once a leading and prestigious center for initial public offerings (IPOs), has now fallen to 20th place among global markets, recording none of the top 100 IPOs in 2024. Markets like Oman, Malaysia, and Luxembourg have outperformed London in attracting IPO capital. The outflow of companies from the London Stock Exchange has also risen, exacerbated by 41 consecutive months of capital outflow from UK equity funds, increasing pressure on market brokers to merge or sell. 5. Australia’s Unemployment Rate: Australia’s unemployment rate in November dropped to its lowest level in eight months, while employment continued its strong growth trend. This surprising strength led markets to reassess the likelihood of a rate cut in February, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s unexpected dovish shift that hinted at potential monetary easing. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that the unemployment rate fell from 4.1% in October to 3.9% in November, the lowest since March. Analysts had expected unemployment to rise to 4.2%. The participation rate declined from 67.1% to 67.0%. Net employment in November increased by 35,600 compared to a revised figure of 12,200 in October, exceeding market expectations of a 25,000-job gain, driven largely by full-time employment growth.
Short
by Ali_PSND