gold forming bearish#XAUUSD firstly today Is Fed rate, price expected maybe differ from what we are expecting. #Gold have been sideways since past hours which holds multiple breakout, now below 2645 holds bearish which will fall below 2639-2628, stop loss 2652.75, but if the H1 candle closes any longer candle on buy then possible reach is 2674 which holds sell retracment also.
Fundamental Analysis
Gold price analysis December 18Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices rose on an overnight rebound from the $2,633 area, or above a one-week low, and attracted some buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday. The rise may have been due to some repositioning ahead of key central bank event risks, although the upside is likely to remain limited as traders may opt to await the outcome of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting later today. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points and adopt a more cautious stance on future rate cuts.
Technical Analysis
As the previous analysis shows, gold prices are still in a downtrend until they close above 2690. 2664 is not seen as a key resistance zone at the moment. We have to wait until the 2673 and 2690 zones for the price to continue to be the focus zone of today for the main SELL strategies. The destination zone is 2633 and 2615 for the SELL strategies.
Trading price zone
BUY zone 2634-2632 Stoploss 2629
BUY zone 2616-2614 Stoploss 2611
SELL zone 2673-2675 Stoploss 2678
SELL zone 2691-2693 Stoploss 2696
Dogecoin-DOGEUSD Periodic Analysis (Issue 53)The analyst believes that the price of { DOGEUSD } will decrease in the next 24 days. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend.
Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Did you Know ?!!!Did you really think that profiting from the current bull run (a comprehensive upward market) would be easy? Don't be naive. Do you think they will let you buy, hold, and sell at low levels without any struggle? If it were that simple, everyone would be rich. But the truth is: 90% of you will lose. Why? Because the crypto market is not designed for everyone to win. They will shake you. They will make you doubt everything. They will panic you and sell at the worst possible moment. Do you know what happens next? The best players in this game buy when there is fear, not sell; because your panic gives them cheap assets. This is how the game goes: strong hands feed off weak hands. They exaggerate every dip, every correction, every sale. They make it look like the end of the world so that you abandon everything, and when the market starts up again, you'll sit there saying, "What the heck just happened?" This is not an accident. It's a system. The market rewards patience and punishes weak emotions. The big players already know your thoughts. They know exactly when and how to stir fear to make you give up. Because when you panic, they profit. They don't play the market. They play you. That's why most people never succeed. Because they fall into the same traps over and over again. People don't realize that dips, FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt), and panic are all part of the plan. But the winners? They digest the noise. They know that fear is temporary, but smart decisions last forever. We've seen this hundreds of times. They pump the market after you sell. They take your assets, hold them, and sell them to you at the top, leaving you with nothing, wondering how it happened. Don't play their game. Play your own.
XAGUSD- silver, waiting for the correction process to continue?!Silver is below EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. If the decline continues, we can see the demand zone and buy within that range with the appropriate risk reward. Stabilization of silver above the resistance range will provide us with the way for silver to rise to the supply range.
With the Federal Reserve beginning its interest rate cuts in September and expectations for this trend to continue, markets are now shifting their focus toward determining the neutral rate. The neutral rate refers to the benchmark interest rate in a normal economic cycle that neither accelerates economic growth nor slows it down.
Federal Reserve officials have emphasized that predicting this rate is currently not feasible. They insist that it is necessary to observe how economic data reacts to each stage of rate cuts before making any conclusions about the neutral rate. Nevertheless, bond market fluctuations suggest that this rate may be higher in the current cycle compared to previous ones. On average, FOMC members estimate a long-term neutral rate close to 3%, although this figure remains uncertain.
According to a recent Reuters survey of economists, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to decline to 4.3% within three months and 4.25% within a year. These figures were 4.25% and 4.1% in the November survey, and 3.8% and 3.75% in October.In a note from Citi, it was stated that demand for gold and silver is likely to remain strong until U.S. and global economic growth stabilizes. Additionally, buying these precious metals as a hedge against declining equity values will persist until U.S. interest rates reach the neutral level.
This week, besides the FOMC’s decision on interest rates, other key economic data will be released. These include the GDP report, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, and the latest findings on consumer sentiment.
Bloomberg has reported that Wall Street’s perspective on the U.S. dollar is shifting. Policies introduced by Donald Trump and further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025 could weaken the dollar’s strength. Analysts from Morgan Stanley to J.P. Morgan predict that the U.S. dollar will peak by mid-next year before entering a downward trajectory. Similarly, Société Générale has forecasted a 6% decline in the dollar index by the end of 2025.
Bloomberg also noted that Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, is expected to announce another quarter-point rate cut. However, the bigger question is what signals the Fed will provide regarding the future policy path and whether this will heighten tensions between Jerome Powell and President-elect Donald Trump.
Following a full percentage point reduction in borrowing costs since mid-September, Powell and his colleagues are expected to pause rate cuts for now. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a holding pattern during its January meeting and reassess inflation and labor market conditions in March.
This approach could lead to friction between the FOMC and Trump’s White House. Known for his preference for low rates and frequent complaints when he feels rates are not low enough, Trump’s arrival in office just over a week before the January meeting may amplify these tensions.
$AGRSUSDT: Breaking Out or Setting Up for a Fall?
The GATEIO:AGRSUSDT pair has been showing signs of potential breakout but also carries risks of correction. Here's an in-depth look at its current technical stance:
Timeframe: 4 Hour Chart
Current Price: $1.25 USDT
Trend Analysis:
Short-Term Trend: The pair has been consolidating, forming a narrow range. This can often precede significant moves, either up or down.
Medium-Term Trend: Over the past weeks, IDX:AGRS has been in a slight uptrend, marked by higher highs and higher lows, though with considerable volatility.
Key Levels:
Support Level: $1.20 USDT - This has acted as a strong psychological and technical support, where previous pullbacks have found buying interest.
Resistance Level: $1.52 USDT - The price has tested this level multiple times, showing resistance to moving higher without significant volume or news-driven catalyst.
Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MAs):
The 50 MA (Moving Average) is currently below the 200 MA, suggesting a bearish crossover on the longer timeframe, but on the 4-hour chart, a recent bullish crossover (50 MA crossing above 200 MA) hints at short-term bullish momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI is currently at 58.87, which is in the neutral territory, indicating no immediate overbought or oversold conditions. However, a move above 70 might signal overbought conditions, suggesting a possible correction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
A bullish MACD crossover has occurred recently, which might signal an impending rally if volume picks up. However, the histogram is still close to the zero line, indicating the strength of the bullish move is yet to be confirmed.
Volume Analysis:
Volume has been inconsistent, with some spikes during price movements but no sustained increase that would confirm a strong trend direction. A breakout or breakdown with high volume would be a significant signal.
Pattern Recognition:
Possible Bullish Divergence: On the 4-hour chart, there's a hint of a regular bullish divergence forming at the resistance. This could be a precursor to a breakout if confirmed by price action and volume.
Flip Zones: Identified orange zones on the chart could serve as flip zones, where previous resistance could turn into support or vice versa, offering strategic trade entries or exits.
Price Predictions:
Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above $1.52 with high volume could see GATEIO:AGRSUSDT moving towards $2.00 or even $2.50 if the bullish momentum sustains.
Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to break through resistance and instead falls back to test support, we might see a correction towards $1.20 or lower, particularly if broader market sentiment sours.
Risk Management:
Given the volatility, setting tight stop losses around support levels for long positions and below recent swing lows for short positions is advisable.
Look for volume confirmation on any move to validate the direction.
Conclusion:
GATEIO:AGRSUSDT is at a pivotal point. Traders should watch for volume and price action at current resistance and support levels. A breakout with volume could signal the beginning of a new trend, while failure here might lead to further consolidation or a bearish move.
Happy Trading
NFA
AUDUSD - What message will the Federal Reserve's dotplot have?!The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the channel ceiling, we can see the supply zones and sell within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. If the downward momentum decreases, we will look for buy positions on the midline and bottom of the channel.
Investors are cautiously anticipating the key decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting. It is widely expected that the central bank will announce its third rate cut of the year and provide projections for 2025.
Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, noted that market participants are eagerly awaiting updates from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and any hints regarding the trajectory of future rate cuts. He stated, “We expect the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point rate cut this week, followed by four additional cuts next year.”
The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting is anticipated to confirm a quarter-point rate reduction while also providing updated projections for potential rate cuts in 2025 and possibly 2026.
Meanwhile, the U.S. services sector has expanded at its fastest pace since October 2021, injecting fresh momentum into the economy, even as the manufacturing sector faces a deeper downturn. The S&P Global services index rose from 56.1 to 58.5 in December, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, marking its lowest level in 55 months.
These figures highlight a widening gap between sustained growth in the services sector and further declines in manufacturing. Factory output and order volumes have dropped at a faster pace, while the cost of imported raw materials from China has risen due to concerns over potential tariffs from the Trump administration.
Following the release of this data, projections for real private gross investment growth in the fourth quarter dropped from 2.4% to 1.2%, while forecasts for real government spending growth in the same period rose from 2.4% to 2.6%. Additionally, U.S. holiday retail sales for 2024 are expected to reach a remarkable $979 billion.
According to a recent report by Fitch Ratings, declining demand poses the most significant risk to global commodity markets if the U.S. imposes new tariffs and affected countries retaliate.
Fitch has warned that potential U.S. tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico could weaken global economic growth, particularly in China, the world’s largest consumer of commodities. This could exert significant pressure on base metals, chemical products, and oil markets.
However, Fitch also noted that China’s economic stimulus measures could offset some of this pressure. At the same time, new tariffs on specific goods, such as steel and aluminum, could increase price volatility and disrupt trade routes.
Bloomberg reported that J.P. Morgan believes the upward trend in European government bonds is nearing its end. The firm now views Australia as the next promising market for stronger performance.
Kim Crawford of J.P. Morgan explained that there is limited room for further gains in Europe, as swap markets have already priced in the potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank. He also highlighted that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance, which has yet to reduce rates in this cycle, positions Australian bonds for stronger growth compared to other developed markets.
EURUSD 30mints According to the EURUSD 30mints time frame there is sideway market structure so, lets se where it will move, if market will breakout higher level which is 1.05284 then it will fly top the resistance level and if it will breakout the lower level which is 1.04809 then it will fall on support level
keep supporting us and get more signals here.
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USDJPY → Consolidation of price in the sell zoneFX:USDJPY reaches a strong resistance at 153.87 within an uptrend. Will this direction continue, as the Fed rate meeting is ahead....
Fundamentally, today is a big day for the markets. At 19:00 GMT the Fed rate meeting, where with a 93% probability the decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% will be made, which will make the dollar less attractive, but for how long, given Trump's policy?
Accordingly, the dollar is in a consolidation phase, traders are waiting. If the dollar starts a downward correction, it will affect the currency pair accordingly. But I do not exclude that on the background of high volatility the price may form a retest of resistance and a false breakout.
Resistance levels: 154.95, 156.75
Support levels: 151.44, 159.69
At the moment, after the retest of 0.79 fibo and the key resistance at 153.877, the price is consolidating in the selling zone. The fundamental background may increase the pressure, which may lead to a fall.
Regards R. Linda!
PRICE ACTION MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on 30M time frame for GOLD. According to my BIAS and my strategy I'm looking a buy trade opportunity. Let's wait and watch which opportunity market will give us.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analyze or prediction.
#XAUUSD M30 Technical Analyze Expected Move.
GBP/USD Short bias - Targeting Last week's low.The GBP/USD pair saw a bullish trend yesterday following better-than-expected claimant data. However, today's inflation rate increase to 2.6% from 2.3% has put pressure on the pound With the Federal Reserve expected to lower rates later.
Following the bullish Monday and Tuesday days, this means might just show price opened and rallied above last week's close and might now be distributing lower.
The pair saw Asian highs and lows taken out, leaving a sell-side imbalance in the 1-minute timeframe. With the short bias identified, this creates a near-perfect entry targeting sell-side liquidity on previous weekly lows and partials along the road.
Bias: Short
Entry: 1.27070
Targets:
Previous weekly lows
High certainty pickBased on the estimated 2026 EBITDA of 76 Crs INR and Forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 21x, I think the stock may have an FV of 94 INR (upside of 20% from 79 INR).
The EBITDA projection stems from assuming higher capacity utilization in 2026. The current capacity of the hospital is sitting around 71%, due to their recent expansion. I am of the view that as they market the hospital further they will get back to the 85% - 90% utilization range. To be conservative, I have modeled 85% OPD utilization in 2026, however, there may be a good shot their capacity may reach 90% in which case the stock could rally >100 INR. For OPD/IPD revenue, I have assumed no growth in 2026. If I add even below-average growth, the FV jumps >100 INR.
Thus, considering the recent sell-off of 25% from its high, and decent upside in a conservative scenario, this could be an inflection point for the stock.
This is not investment advice, this is what I AM GOING TO DO.
Is the AI Revolution Built on a House of Cards?In the treacherous landscape of technological ambition, Nvidia emerges as a cautionary tale of unchecked corporate hubris and potentially unsustainable growth. What appeared to be an unstoppable technological juggernaut now reveals deep fissures in its seemingly impenetrable facade, with mounting challenges threatening to unravel its carefully constructed narrative of AI dominance. Specific challenges underscore this fragility: comments from Microsoft's Satya Nadella suggest a potential moderation in AI chip demand, while Alphabet's Sundar Pichai has highlighted that "the low-hanging fruit is gone" in AI model development.
Beneath the glossy veneer of technological innovation lies a troubling reality of regulatory scrutiny and market volatility. Nvidia faces a perfect storm of challenges: a potential slowdown in AI chip demand, an aggressive antitrust investigation by Chinese regulators, and growing skepticism from industry leaders. The competition is intensifying, with Amazon developing its own Trainium AI chips, and Broadcom positioning itself to capture significant market share with custom AI chip solutions projected to reach $90 billion in the next three years. OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever's stark statement that "we've achieved peak data" further undermines the narrative of unbridled AI growth.
The broader implications are profound and deeply concerning. Nvidia's struggles represent a microcosm of the larger technological ecosystem—a world where innovation is increasingly constrained by geopolitical tensions, regulatory challenges, and the harsh economic realities of diminishing returns. Despite massive capital expenditures by tech giants—with Microsoft nearly doubling its spending to $20 billion and Meta increasing expenses by 36%—only 4% of US workers use AI daily. This stark disconnect between investment and actual utility exposes the potential fragility of Nvidia's market position, with analysts suggesting that 2024 may have been the peak in terms of percentage increase for AI-related infrastructure spending.
Gold Market Update: Indecision Dominates Ahead of FEDYesterday, OANDA:XAUUSD broke below the key confluence support at 2645.
However, the drop lacked meaningful follow-through. After reaching a local low at 2633, the price reversed and closed right at the confluence level.
As of now, gold remains virtually unchanged from Friday's close. Monday saw a spike up to 2665, while yesterday marked a dip to 2633, reflecting market indecision.
Technical Perspective:
At the time of writing, gold is trading below this critical level, currently at 2643. If the break below support proves genuine, bears will likely target the 2610-2615 zone, as highlighted in my previous analyses.
Conversely, if the price climbs back above 2655, the recent dip would be considered a false breakout, shifting the focus to the upside, with the 2680 zone as the next target.
FED's Influence:
The market awaits clarity from the Federal Reserve’s announcement and press conference today, which could provide direction for gold in the coming days.
NVIDIA's Declined over 10%, Why? When will be the Buy timing? NVIDIA fell nearly 4% today before narrowing the loss to 1.22%. Since hitting a record closing high of $148.88 in early November, the AI chip maker's stock has dropped over 10%.
So, what is causing NVIDIA's decline?
Firstly, Supply Chain Issues and Challenges
NVIDIA faces multiple challenges in its supply chain, a significant factor in its stock decline.
First, according to the latest data, the order volume and schedules for the GB200 and GB300 have been adjusted. Particularly, the mass production and shipment of GB series products have been postponed until after the Lunar New Year in February, increasing market uncertainty. Additionally, the small-scale production plans for GB300 face tight deadlines, putting pressure on GB200's mass production.
Specific supply chain issues include CoWoS-L packaging technology, heating problems, copper cable connections, and leakage issues. These not only affect product yield rates but also increase system integration time costs. Consequently, NVIDIA has suggested customers purchase the B200 8-card HGX as a transitional solution, and clients like Microsoft are considering switching their orders. These supply chain issues affect NVIDIA's product delivery capabilities and reduce market expectations for its future performance.
Secondly, Market Competition and Narrative Changes
ASICs are gaining market recognition as a competitive narrative.
ASICs are chips designed for specific tasks, akin to custom running shoes for a race. For certain tasks, ASICs outperform NVIDIA's GPUs (widely used for computing tasks) and are potentially cheaper.
OpenAI co-founder Ilya and industry leaders like Microsoft's CEO Satya have started discussing the importance of not only training AI models but also ensuring they can quickly and accurately make decisions in real applications. This shift in perspective gives ASICs an advantage in some scenarios, as they are designed for rapid, precise execution of tasks.
This raises questions about the cost of NVIDIA's GPUs. While powerful, they are expensive and require significant electricity and cooling. As ASICs perform better at lower costs for some tasks, there's consideration of replacing NVIDIA's GPUs with ASICs.
Additionally, changes in scaling law narratives and the strengthening of inference narratives pose threats to NVIDIA.
Scaling laws suggest that increasing AI model size (e.g., more neurons or layers) typically improves performance, but these gains are not infinite and require significant computational resources. This means NVIDIA must continually invest resources to improve product performance, potentially increasing costs.
Moreover, companies like BTC, Tesla, and Google are investing heavily in their own AI chips or solutions. This intensifies market competition and challenges NVIDIA's leadership.
Thirdly, Market Sentiment and Capital Flows
Market sentiment and capital flow significantly impact NVIDIA's stock price. As the year ends, retail investors, ETFs, and institutions adjust their portfolios. Fluctuations in tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Google affect tech stocks like NVIDIA. Investors are more cautious, favoring stable, promising companies.
Given these conditions, NVIDIA faces pressure on its stock price due to supply chain issues and competition. Lowered expectations for NVIDIA's future performance lead to capital outflows and stock price declines.
Fourthly, Future Outlook and Catalysts
Despite current challenges, NVIDIA has opportunities for a turnaround.
First, NVIDIA needs to resolve supply chain issues, improve product yield, and delivery capabilities. Second, strengthening its presence in software and applications is crucial to addressing market competition. Additionally, NVIDIA should explore new computing narratives to expand its computing potential.
Fifthly, Technical Analysis and Price Divergence
Previously, prices rose continuously, but volume and KDJ began to decline, showing divergence. Without capital support, upward momentum was insufficient, leading to a short-term adjustment and a break below the mid-term trend line, resulting in a mid-term callback.
When Might a New Rally Occur?
From a technical analysis perspective: After two prior mid-term adjustments, breaking the downward trend line may signal the start of a new rally. Thus, this new rally must first break the resistance line.
From a catalyst perspective: While January's CES and the earnings release in late February may not bring major surprises, March's GTC is worth anticipating. NVIDIA needs to showcase new technologies and products at this event to restore market confidence. If NVIDIA can introduce groundbreaking innovations, a stock rebound is possible.
“Whispers of Dominance" The Tale of Dominance and the Rise of Alt Season
In the grand arena of the crypto markets, where titans clash and fortunes are forged, the charts whisper secrets to those who listen. This story is etched in the movements of Bitcoin and the altcoin dominance chart, known as OTHERS.D. Together, they dance in a delicate rhythm of power, signaling the coming tides for those who can decode them.
Act I: The Prelude to Power
On January 1, 2021, the market set the stage. The dominance of altcoins began to surge, rising steadily for 2 bars (28 days) with a staggering volume of 19.03T. At the same time, Bitcoin, the king of crypto, began to form a bull flag, a sign of hesitation. The altcoins faltered briefly, caught in the shadow of Bitcoin’s indecision.
But the winds were shifting.
Act II: The Divergence of Titans
As the market surged toward April 9, 2021, Bitcoin reached its All-Time High (ATH), a peak of glory marked by the first white vertical line. Yet, in this moment of triumph, a subtle change occurred: Bitcoin began to waver. And as the king faltered, OTHERS.D — the collective might of altcoins — gathered strength.
By July 16, 2021, after 5 bars (57 days) and a volume of 15.64T, dominance peaked again. The altcoin army was on the rise, even as Bitcoin’s price descended. The stage was set for a shift of power.
Act III: The Wisdom of the RSI Scanner
Amidst the chaos, the RSI Scanner — with its two white bands and the orange wave — became the oracle. It foretold a truth known only to the wise:
“Alt Season begins when altcoin dominance breaks above the upper RSI Scanner band.”
This is the moment of ascendance — when altcoins shatter their shackles and surge forward, leaving Bitcoin in their wake.
Act IV: The Prophecy of March 11, 2024
Fast forward to March 11, 2024. The market holds its breath as the charts reveal a pattern: 13 bars (182 days) of synchronized movement between Bitcoin and altcoins. A volume of 32.14T pulses through the veins of the market.
The white vertical lines remind us of Bitcoin’s past glories — the ATHs of April 9, 2021, and November 5, 2021. After each of these peaks, OTHERS.D continued to rise, signaling the quiet but determined march of altcoins.
Now, the question looms:
Will altcoins rise once more above the RSI Scanner’s upper band? Will Alt Season be unleashed upon the markets?
The Pending New Era
A smiley face marks the hope of a Pending New ATH for Bitcoin — a beacon of optimism in this tale of dominance and divergence. But wise traders know: the real drama lies in the hands of the altcoins.
Their time is near. The charts have spoken. The stage is set.
This was just a glimpse. Tomorrow, I begin to unravel the full depths of liquidity for OTHERS.D.
Traders, the Bull Run for Alts has not even started.
Or for a more intense delivery:
Today was merely a taste. Tomorrow, I’ll unveil the true extent of liquidity flowing through OTHERS.D.
Traders, the Bull Run for Alts has yet to ignite.
Here is your OTHERS.D chart, paired perfectly for comparison with Bitcoin.
Or, with a bit more emphasis:
Here is your OTHERS.D chart, designed to pair seamlessly for comparison and deeper insight with Bitcoin.
GBPUSD Shorting long termShort-term plays don't always go as planned, but the bigger picture tells a different story. Price is rejecting strongly off key levels, signaling a potential shift in momentum. The bulls are stepping in, and this setup has the potential to unfold over the coming weeks. Let's see how it plays out—patience is key!
Why is Dow Jones on a losing streak?The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) (Ticker AT: USAIND) recently experienced its longest negative streak since 2018, racking up eight consecutive sessions of declines. This downtrend began on December 4, when the index closed above 45,000 points for the first time in history. Since then, it has shown a downward trend, reflecting the volatility and fluctuations of the market in the current period. During this period, the DJIA has shown a downward trend, while other indexes such as the Nasdaq have experienced increases, reaching new all-time highs. For example, the Nasdaq rose 1.24% and closed at new all-time highs, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.38%. However, these positive closes were the result of the strong performance of a few stocks, such as Alphabet, Apple and Tesla, which set new all-time highs.
The recent drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), is due to several factors that have generated uncertainty in the markets. Here are the main reasons behind this behavior:
1. Interest Rate Concerns 2.
• The persistence of high interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to combat inflation continues to negatively affect sensitive sectors, such as real estate and industrials.
• Investors fear that these rates could be prolonged, limiting economic growth.
2.Recession Fears
• Mixed economic data, such as a slowdown in consumer spending and industrial production, have fueled concerns about a possible recession in 2024.
• Although the labor market remains strong, other indicators, such as the manufacturing index, reflect weakness.
3. Impact of the Industrial Sector
• Given that the DJIA is largely comprised of industrial and consumer goods companies, any weakness in these sectors directly impacts its performance.
• Key companies in the index, such as Boeing and Caterpillar, have suffered setbacks due to global uncertainty.
4. Strength of the dollar
• The strengthening of the dollar against other currencies negatively affects DJIA companies with high international exposure, reducing the competitiveness of their products abroad.
5. Rotation to Other Indices
• Investors are favoring indices more exposed to the technology sector, such as the Nasdaq, which has had a positive performance thanks to the momentum of artificial intelligence and other technological advances.
6. Geopolitical Tensions
• Uncertainties in the Middle East, as well as trade tensions between the U.S. and China, have increased risk aversion, especially affecting global companies in the DJIA.
On the technical side, the index has had several bearish days that are reaching its last support zone near 43,300 points. If this zone is pierced, it could evolve towards the checkpoint near 42,100 points. On the other hand, the index is currently oversold at 41.72% and its mid-range crosses do not indicate a change in direction. If we look at the MACD if there has been a turn of the trend of the average of 12 crossing below the average of 26, which shows that in the short term this situation does not seem to have changed.
It is important to note that the DJIA is a price-weighted index, which means that higher-priced stocks have a more significant impact on its movement. Therefore, fluctuations in the prices of high-value stocks can significantly influence the index's performance.
For investors and analysts, this negative streak in the DJIA underscores the importance of monitoring market trends and considering factors such as index composition, global economic conditions and monetary policies that can influence stock index performance.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
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