Get started

Fundamental-analysis

Canadian Dollar To All Time Lows???CAD/CHF is currently sitting at a key level and a big test. Today is also the day of the Canadian Interest Rate decision. Forecast is for Canada to increase their rate from 4.75% to 5% which would be an increase of 0.25 points. However, this same prediction was made for the RBNZ last night and they decided to keep their rate the same. If the BoC do keep the rates the same, or increase the rate I don't see how either could be positive for the CAD, simply putting it the country is not in the best of positions. We also had the worst CPI report in almost 2 years not too long ago and an increase in Unemployment rates last month, despite adding jobs. I don't see how any Canadian led pair could be considered bullish, given the state of the country and my bias is for a short here.
Short
by SJFXT
ETC/UST 1D ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to review the ETC chart on the one-day interval. As we can see, the price did not manage to stay on the downtrend line and was quickly reversed. After unfolding the Fib Retracement grid, we see that the price is holding just below the support at $19.19, the next support is at $16.69, then the third support at $14.84, and when we go lower we have a fourth very strong support at priced at $12.57. Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see that the first significant resistance is at $21.67 with the downtrend line, then resistance at $24.15 and then the price will move to resistance at $27.26. At this point, it is worth including the EMA Cross 200, which indicates that the ETC attempted to return to a strong uptrend, but it was a false break and a quick return. The CHOP index indicates that there is a lot of energy for the upcoming move, the MACD indicates the continuation of the downward trend, while the RSI has approached the middle of the range, so the move will be based on BTC price jumps.
by cryptodailyuk
99 Next for DXYHey Traders! 👋 For Day 44/100 of our challenge, we will look at where the bearish Dollar will go to next Technicals: - 190-day range broken to the downside - Closure below support - Next key level is 99 - Expecting 99 this coming week but can potentially struggle to close below it Fundamentals: - With a soft inflation print last week and also highlighting decline in inflation across the board, it gives the Fed less reason to follow through on their "two more rate hikes" plan. This will cause the market to reprice "some" of the hope built up on this statement by the Fed and may even continue to reprice the rate cut bets this year. We're bearish on the dollar for the week ahead. Have a nice Sunday ☀️
TVC:DXYShort
by rob_WRLD_
Cryptocurrencies and Market Psychology (long Review)How do we determine whether the Cryptomarket will rise or fall, at what point of the trend? I will share my past experiences, thoughts and information I have compiled and evaluate the subject in terms of market psychology. While explaining these as much as I can, I will make use of a lot of data and resources. Roughly speaking, market psychology is the whole of the phenomena that we feel emotionally in the face of the movements experienced and enable us to make decisions in line with them. In other words, it is what we feel in response to price movements. Hence the enthusiasm we feel in response to rising prices in the market and the anger we feel in response to falling prices and losses. Crowds, masses, groups, whatever you call them, act on emotions and impulses. They have a common collective behaviour, separate and distinct from what they feel individually. This is whatever the direction of the market is. Except for exceptions and a certain minority, it is not possible for investors to get rid of this and think differently. You can sense this both from yourself and from your surroundings. When the markets are at their peak, investors are very happy, they invite everyone to join them in this happiness, their faces are smiling, and they believe that they will earn even more in time. ''After an event is repeated two or three times in a row, the "arterior cingulate" and "nucleus accumbens" parts of the human brain automatically expect it to be repeated. if it is repeated, a natural chemical "dopamine" is released and your brain is covered with a soft happiness. So when a stock goes up several times in a row, you expect it to continue, and your brain chemistry changes as the stock goes up, making you feel very happy, so you become addicted to your predictions. But when stocks fall, the resulting monetary losses activate the "amygdala" part of your brain - the part of the brain that drives fear and anxiety and activates the famous "fight or flight" response that occurs in all cornered animals. Just as you can't stop your heart rate from rising when a fire alarm goes off, and you can't stop running backwards when a snake crosses your walkway, you can't stop being scared when stock prices fall.'' behavioural economics after an event is repeated two or three times in a row, the "arterior cingulate" and "nucleus accumbens" parts of the human brain automatically expect it to repeat. if it repeats, it is a natural person. This period of making easy and fast money makes people feel very good. People think that they are very successful and that this will continue. But this is an illusion. The reason why the masses make big and fast money during this period is not their own success, but because the market allows it. The end of these events is usually full of bitter experiences. The 2001 nasdaq crisis, the 2008 crisis, the cryptocurrencies in the last months of 2017, the 2021 bitcoin rally, and the current Turkey's stock are examples of this. Of course, before evaluating these, it is necessary to know what the stock market is, who wins, what is its real face. One of the biggest misconceptions about the stock market is that the new entrant or the less experienced person makes the evaluation only within the period he entered. This is a mistake, what should be done is to analyse the relevant market with its entire history. You've heard the saying, "It's increased 30 times in 2 years, if it goes another 10 times from here. Probably not. This 10 times more thought has been formed in line with the above-mentioned and is not rational. ''If we had bought that coin or stock in time, we were rich now.'' This phrase is also very familiar. Those who invest uninformedly with the discourses of others, people who think that they are distributed free of charge on the stock exchange, crypto, those who think it is a place of easy fast money folding are always in the last link of the chain and are doomed to lose. What has invited these people to the stock market recently is the enthusiasm experienced in the markets. Think about the motivation of people jumping from the top of the shares. It's going up, so let me get in and win. From Daniel Kahneman's book Thinking fast and slow: ''People have the illusion that they are 'making accurate predictions'.'' One of the relevant chapters is below: "So the success of a buy-sell is not due to skill, but to luck. And even when they are presented with evidence of this fact, they ignore it and continue to live the same way. The rest of the story is even more interesting. Algorithms that use only 2 parameters in predictions that largely depend on luck are more successful against people who are fed with more parameters/information. Because human thoughts vary too much according to their body chemistry, and as they are fed with more information, their self-confidence and therefore the risks they take increase and they lose more easily. That means this, For example, when betting between teams x-y, a simple algorithm that calculates the probability of team x winning based on x's score in the last 5 matches and the score in the last 5 seasons against team y, In the long run, it is more successful than a person who knows these two pieces of information and the number of injuries, the weather, the number of fans and who the referee is in that match. Therefore, algorithms using Markov chains make money, while amateurs who are influenced by the sunny weather and make more optimistic choices lose money all the time. Another conclusion to be drawn: Machines are more successful with less information. This makes them superior to humans. Humans are still incapable of comprehending - accepting - even the statistical facts that are shown to them. we are still prisoners of the illusions that our minds play on us.'' People are psychologically influenced by their environment. Explanation: when the stock market was at 1000 points, no one was interested, but now everyone has the desire to become an investor. The same goes for bitcoin. People who I could not convince to buy in the $ 3000-5000 USD range started to ask if it would go between 50-69k USD. The same people now think that bitcoin should never be bought at 16 thousand. All these are not calculated thoughts, they are purely impulsive behaviours. The result of these behaviours is to lose. As long as people and markets exist, these cycles will always continue. There will always be new winners and losers. This is the purpose of the stock market. Now, what are the above-mentioned things useful for us? With all this information, we are trying to find out where we are in the market relative to the peak and when we should exit. In other words, when to buy and when to sell, to find the time to sell. When does the bear market (bear period) start? It starts 1 candle after the peak candle. It is the best selling place. That is, the peak. We use technical analysis, the internal dynamics of the market and the psychology of this market to identify the peak areas (i.e. the best selling points). Remember, we are not trying to analyse point by point. We are just trying to more or less predict the zones and maximise our own profits. Trying to find peaks and troughs is unnecessary and foolish. Buying at average cost and selling at average cost will give you the most effortless profit. Some wrong moves and behaviour patterns that prevent winning: -Rushing to win. -Not having information about the market, not learning. -Being hopeless and negative due to constant losing (not looking objectively). -Looking for back doors, trying to pull the gain forward (emotional or sentimental trade, or margin) -Constantly listening to others without doing enough research, losing and blaming them for mistakes, -Excessive enthusiasm at the top, excessive fear and anger at the bottom. Those who follow the whole market only news-oriented. These can multiply even more. People with these behaviour patterns cannot make money from the market. You have heard it everywhere: "The stock market is a means of transferring money from impatient people to patient people". You will realise the truth of this saying as your experience increases. Of course, this alone is not enough, there are many factors such as the right timing, the right stock coin selection, the moves you will make in the uptrend. But one of the basic disciplines you need to have is patience. Let's go back to psychology and emotion. The masses in the stock market (small investors); are guided and manipulated through emotions. In other words, it is to get your consent on an action that you will not do and to make you take that action. Manipulation is to persuade you for a transaction that is to your detriment. Through various methods, the money in the hands of small investors is collected in the hands of large investors, capital groups, new rich people. In other words, wealth transfer takes place. Thanks to many stock exchanges, commodities, cryptos, parity in the world, these wealth transfers are taking place at any moment. Examine all world markets from past to present, it will be more understandable. Why am I telling so many negative things? Because in order to win the game, we need to know what the game is, what the rules are. You can get away from the news, fuds, psychological attrition movements, manipulations, knowing the rules of the game. It's a kind of self-protection. Once you lose, it's hard to overcome the psychology of it. Emotions come into play. You can be a prisoner of ambition and anger. So you can know these and try not to lose from the beginning or try to get out with less damage. The stock market is an environment where the right information is very valuable, because we come across the most information pollution, ignorant comments, and directive content on the stock market. Even twitter alone is enough for this hollow content. I mentioned the part about the peaks. Enough of this negative information. I apologise that the topics may be a bit intertwined. If we come to the bottom points, the opposite of these are experienced. I have talked about them at length before, they can be read. Let me make a few recommendations. Choose the people you care about carefully. No one has a magic wand or secret information that will make you 100x. Stay away from dishonest people, ignore duplicate scam accounts. There are plenty of paid and unpaid trainings (stock market, crypto) on the internet, spend time on them. Browse books written about the stock market. Try to fill yourself with knowledge. On fundamental and technical analysis, investor psychology, Try to learn about behavioural economics (economics), about the basics of the stock market. Don't depend on anyone, but try to get information from everyone. Also, get to know a little bit about what you are investing in. Do not jump in with gas, with a moment of excitement, just because someone said so. Give importance to past experiences. A lot of experience is important in the stock market. Think medium and long term, not short term. It is not important to earn in a month in a week. It is important to be able to earn and protect it in a year or two years. Consider it as investment and accumulation, not gambling. What needs to be done to win is plain and simple, what is difficult is to apply them.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by Cryptollica
4
Matic/Usdt 1D ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to review SOL in pair to USDT, on a one-day interval. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the downtrend channel where the price is moving in the upper range. Moving on, we can move on to marking support areas when we start a larger correction. And here, the first support is at $22.38, the second support is at $19.68, the third support is at $17.44, and then we have a strong support zone from $15.20 to $12. Looking the other way, we see that the price has reached an important resistance zone from $ 27.14 to $ 32.34, which so far has no strength to break. However, if it manages to exit the descending channel upwards and break through the resistance zone, the next resistance will appear at the price of $38.89. Please look at the CHOP index, which indicates that we have a lot of energy for the upcoming move, MACD indicates that we are in a downtrend, while the RSI has a rebound and we are moving at the downtrend line, which may indicate a larger correction.
M
by cryptodailyuk
SOL/USDT Review Long-TermHello everyone, I invite you to review the SOL chart, taking into account the one-day interval. As we can see, the price has moved up from the sideways trend channel, and is currently testing the maintenance of increases, at this point it is also worth using the yellow line to mark the local uptrend line along which the price moves. In order to determine the current support spots when SOL starts a correction, we will use the Fib Retracement tool and we can see that the first significant support is at $22.91, then we have a second support at $20.04, then a strong support zone from $17.31 to $13.24 Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. However, here it is worth noting that the price is struggling to stay above the resistance at $ 26.99, which is located at the golden point fib. then we have a strong resistance at $32.24 where the price turned around and a third resistance is at $38.71. We will now mark the place where the price moved decisively above the EMA Cross 200, which gave a strong confirmation of the transition to an uptrend. The CHOP index indicates that the energy has been used, the MACD indicates that the uptrend is maintained, while the RSI crossed the upper limit of the range, which gave the price a pullback, but we should still see a rebound after such a large increase.
by cryptodailyuk
ETH/USDT Daily Review 4HIntervalHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of ETH in pair to USDT, on a four-hour interval. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the downtrend line from which the price went up. It is also worth mentioning that after turning on the EMA Cross 200, we can see that the moving average of 200 held the price before falling further. Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the Fib Retracement tool to mark the supports, and as you can see, we have the first support at $1843, the second support at $1801, and then we can mark a very strong support zone from $1760 to $1701. Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here the first strong resistance that the price is currently fighting is $1882, then we can mark a very strong resistance zone from $1944 to $2030, and when it manages to break out above, the price will be able to move towards the resistance at the previous high of $2140. The CHOP index indicates that there is still energy to continue the movement. The MACD indicator confirms the local uptrend. On the other hand, the RSI is moving around the middle of the range, which may indicate that there is still room for the price to break out of the first resistance.
by cryptodailyuk
BTC/USDT 4HINTERVAL Review Resistance and SupportHello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on the BTC pair to USDT, taking into account the four-hour interval. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the local sideways trend channel, while locally we can mark the uptrend line along which the price is currently moving towards the upper border of the channel. Now we can move on to marking the places of support in the event of a correction. And here we have the first support at $30,514, and then we have a strong support zone from $30,266 to $29,929, however, when we break below this zone, we can see a drop to around $29,493. Looking the other way, in a similar way using the Fib Retracement tool, we can determine the places of resistance. We will first mark an important resistance zone from $30,829 to $31,136, once it is broken, price will attempt to attack the resistance at $31,520 so it can move further up. As we can see, EMA Cross 10 and 30 indicate the place of confirmation of the transition to a local uptrend. The CHOP index indicates that the energy is gathering strength, the MACD indicator confirms the ongoing local uptrend, while the RSI is moving in the upper part of the range, which may affect the price with a slight correction.
by cryptodailyuk
GOLD// XAUUSD🔰 Pair Name : XAU/USD 🔰 Time Frame : 4H 🔰 Scale Type : MID Scale 🔰 Direction : SELL Core CPI data will be released in a few hours. What to expect? USD Strength: The expectation of core inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's target suggests that the Fed may consider further rate hikes. Historically, higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investors seeking better returns, thus potentially increasing demand for the USD. As a result, there could be a positive impact on the strength of the USD if the Fed decides to raise rates in response to elevated inflation. If core inflation remains above the Fed's target and there is a possibility of further rate hikes, it may create an environment of uncertainty and inflation concerns, which could potentially increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. This increased demand for gold may contribute to upward pressure on its price. Considering the information provided, if the USD strengthens due to expectations of further rate hikes driven by persistent core inflation, it could potentially exert downward pressure on gold prices. However, the impact may be tempered by the role of gold as an inflation hedge, as elevated inflation levels and uncertainty surrounding future rate hikes could support increased demand for gold and potentially lead to higher prices. On the other hand, from technical point of view gold has created a significant imbalance in the 4-hour chart, as we have observed in the market. We believe that gold will need to fill that market imbalance before experiencing further upward or downward movements, which will depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by Moon_SmartMoney
BNB/USDT 1DReview Resistance an SupportHello everyone, welcome to a review of the BNB vs. USDT pair, taking into account the one-day timeframe. First of all, using the blue lines, we can mark the sideways trend channel in which the price is currently approaching its upper limit. Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the Fib Retracement tool to mark support, and here we will first mark the strong support zone from $234 to $228, however, if the price falls below this zone, we can see a drop to around $220.4. Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we see that the price is moving towards the upper border of the channel, where we have a strong resistance zone from $244 to $250, only when we exit it upside, we can attack the resistance at $256.8. Index CHOP indicates that there is still energy to continue this movement. The MACD indicator, despite corrections in the channel, maintains an upward trend. On the other hand, on the RSI we approached the middle of the range, despite everything we can see an attempt to attack the first resistance zone.
by cryptodailyuk
XAUUSD: Operating strategy for the second week of July​​This week's gold analysis: The trend of gold this week is still the same as last week, and it cannot get out of the range shock. I originally thought that the non-agricultural situation could break the current situation of gold. Still seems disappointed. After bottoming out and recovering on Friday, it seemed that the rise was strong, but it was just in shape. After rising to the 1934 line, the bears had the upper hand, and there was no upward momentum anymore. Before I thought that the overall short position cannot be reversed if it does not stand above 1930, which also proves what I thought. At present, we can see that the price of gold has risen by about 25 U.S. dollars since the news of non-agricultural benefits came out, and the closing price is also firmly above 1925. It can only be said that the current gold short forces have been temporarily suppressed, and the bulls have the momentum to regain their dominant position, but before breaking through the 1940 position, it can be said. So what we are considering now is not to look long or short, but to consider the position of entry is the key. This week mainly depends on the release of CPI data on Wednesday to see if gold can break through the range and go in a new direction. So this week's operation strategy, just find a suitable point to enter the market. Because I only do short-term within the day, so the operation is still the same as last week, just sell high and buy low. Net assets increased by 37% last week, hopefully I will make more profits this week! Focus on the 1910~1940 interval, follow my new post for more detailed entry timing
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ActuaryJ
XRP/USDT 1D Review ChartHello everyone, welcome to the XRP chart review on a one-day timeframe. As we can see after defining the uptrend line, the price has fallen slightly below, but remains close to this line. Let's start by marking the support areas for the price and we see that first we have a support zone from $0.45 to $0.42, which is holding the price so far, but if the zone is broken, the next support is at $0.39. Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see that the price is currently bouncing off the $0.48 resistance. Then we can mark a resistance zone from $0.51 to $0.52, and a second very strong zone from $0.54 to $0.57. The CHOP index indicates that a lot of energy has been collected, the MACD is struggling to return to the downtrend, while the RSI has a further rebound, which may positively affect the change of the price direction to an upward one.
by cryptodailyuk
ETH/USDT ReviewHello everyone, let's look at the ETH to USDT chart on a single day time frame. As you can see, the price has fallen below the local uptrend line. After unfolding the trend based fib extension grid, we see that the price stayed in the first support zone from $1864 to $1828, and then there is the second support zone from $1793 to $1742. Looking the other way, we will check the resistances in the same way and here we see that the price must first break the resistance zone from $1909 to $1959, when it breaks it it will move towards the second zone from $2041 to $2101. The CHOP index indicates that there is a lot of energy for a move, the MACD is on the verge of returning to a downtrend, while the RSI has a pullback to the middle of the range, which may translate into an upward price move.
by cryptodailyuk
SOL/USDT 1D Review resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to review the SOL chart in pair to USDT. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the downtrend channel where the price is moving in the upper range. Going further, we can move on to marking support areas when the price starts a correction. And here the first strong support is at $19.91, then we have a very strong support zone from $17.66 to $15.39 and then support at $12.17. Looking the other way, we see that the price has reached an important resistance zone from $ 21.69 to $ 24.06, which so far has no strength to break. However, if it manages to break above the resistance zone, the next resistance will appear at the price of $27.15. Please take a look at the CHOP index, we see that most of the energy has been used in the current uptrend, the MACD confirms the ongoing uptrend, while the RSI has a clear uptrend which could give the price a correction in the coming time.
by cryptodailyuk
XRP/USDT Review 1DayInterval Hello everyone, I invite you to review the BNB chart on a one-day timeframe. As we can see after defining the uptrend line, the price has fallen slightly below, but remains close to this line. Let's start by marking the support areas for the price and we see that first we have a support zone from $0.45 to $0.42, which is holding the price so far, but if the zone is broken, the next support is at $0.39. Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see that the price is currently bouncing off the $0.48 resistance. Then we can mark a resistance zone from $0.51 to $0.52, and a second very strong zone from $0.54 to $0.57. The CHOP index indicates that a lot of energy has been collected, the MACD is struggling to return to the uptrend, while the RSI has a further rebound, which may positively affect the change of the price direction to an upward one.
by cryptodailyuk
BTC/USDT Long-Term 1DInterval ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the downtrend channel from which the price has gone up, while locally it is worth marking the sideways trend channel in which the BTC price is moving. We will use the trend based fib extension tool to determine the supports, as we can see now the first support at $30049 held the price, however when it goes lower the next support is at $29180, then the third support at $28402 and then it is worth marking a very strong zone support from $27678 to $26628. Looking the other way, we can determine the places of resistance in a similar way. And here the first resistance at fibon's golden point is at $31855, before which the price turns back, however when it manages to break it, the second resistance is at $33809 and then the third resistance at $36250. When we turn on the ema cross 10 and 30, we can see that it indicates a continuation in the ongoing uptrend. The CHOP index indicates that there is a lot of energy to be used, the MACD indicator indicates a downtrend, and we can see a rebound on the RSI, but we are still in the upper part of the range, which may give the price a rebound.
by cryptodailyuk
USDJPY | H1 | UpdateUSDJPY update, looking at USDJPY now based on my initial analysis we can see that the USDJPY tanked as per the initial forecast, there was some volatility during the course of the week due to fundamental events surrounding the USD which also acted as a catalyst towards increasing the overall momentum as we would’ve noticed with today’s NFP announcement. But looking back we can take note that USDJPY created a short term trading range between 144.19x and 144.68x before breaking out of our minor support level at 144.19x then came back to retest that level and confirm it as our new resistance after the announcement of the US ADP Employment Change yesterday before tumbling further down. Today’s NFP announcement acted as a further catalyst pushing USDJPY to break through our initial target and support at 142.8xx & 142.6xx now we’re looking forward to it pushing further down to 141.2xx
Short
by mosa_moshka
GBPJPY Sell Idea ??? A detailed Technical and Pictorial AnalysisHello Traders !!! Today, we will delve into the topic of JPY buying, exploring it from both fundamental and technical perspectives. It has come to our attention that many traders, excluding large investors and major players in the Forex market, are perplexed by the significant selling pressure on JPY. The answer to this question is rather straightforward: the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is not providing substantial support to JPY. When compared to other central banks, the BoJ fails to offer enticing incentives to investors. If this trend continues in the future, it will undoubtedly inflict further damage upon the value of JPY. Technical Analysis GBPJPY is currently displaying a strong uptrend from a technical standpoint, and there is optimism that it will easily reach targets of 190 and 196. However, caution is warranted at these key levels, as indicators in higher timeframes indicate significant overbought conditions. Furthermore, it is highly probable that JPY intervention will occur at these crucial levels, with a stronger connection to the USDJPY pair. Therefore, it is crucial to closely monitor the levels of USDJPY. If USDJPY surpasses the 150-152 range, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will undoubtedly intervene in the Forex market. Hence, those interested in trading GBPJPY must also pay close attention to the key levels of USDJPY. Below I am mentioning some levels to trade GBPJPY. First Trade Setup : Sell level: 189.5-190.5 stop loss: 191.950 Take profit: 187.650 Second Trade Setup : Sell level: 195-196.2 stop loss: 197.57 Take profit: 192.240 Third Trade Setup : Sell level: 199.65-200.87 stop loss: 201.98 Take profit: 196.7, 192.87, 188.10 Long trade Setup : open long position from 190 and 196 zone stop loss: 210.500 take profit : 181.57 Fundamental Analysis : When discussing fundamentals, it is notable that all central banks are adopting strict monetary policies and raising interest rates in response to inflationary pressures. As inflation continues to surge, these banks are implementing robust measures to maintain it within acceptable bounds. However, in stark contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is displaying a lack of action when compared to its counterparts and maintaining an accommodative monetary stance. This behavior from the BoJ is detrimental to the value of JPY. Therefore, it is advisable to trade JPY pairs cautiously, particularly at key levels, as the BoJ has been repeatedly issuing verbal warnings regarding potential intervention. Now, let us analyze the possibility of intervention. Analyzing the Possibility of Intervention The probability of intervention is widely debated among experts, who argue that concerns regarding intervention are currently unsubstantiated. According to their analysis, Tokyo is expected to limit its actions to verbal warnings this year. Several points support this perspective: Costly nature of intervention: Japan intervened in the market last year to strengthen the yen, marking the first intervention since 1998. In previous instances, authorities had intervened to prevent the rise of the JPY, which could harm the export-oriented economy. The process of strengthening the yen through intervention is complex and expensive. To increase the exchange rate, the Ministry of Finance issues short-term bills, raising the cost of the currency, which are then sold to weaken the JPY. On the other hand, weakening the yen requires using foreign exchange reserves to exchange dollars for yen. Continuously buying currency to prevent its decline would deplete Japan's monetary reserves. Unlike selling off JPY, where Tokyo can essentially create an unlimited supply of yen, there are limitations to buying back the currency. Approximately 6.35 trillion yen (around $43 billion) was spent on supporting the yen last year. Considering this, it is unlikely that the authorities will engage in large-scale intervention this year and may instead hope for a minor and temporary retreat in the USD/JPY pair. Absence of consumer pressure: Throughout history, the Japanese government has never chosen to intervene to strengthen the yen during periods of low public dissatisfaction. A weak currency generally leads to an increase in the cost of living, causing discontent among consumers. This was observed in Japan towards the end of the previous year when fuel and commodity prices reached record highs, and the depreciation of the yen accelerated, negatively impacting local purchasing power. Consequently, public outrage prompted the government to take action. Currently, although inflation in the country remains above the target of 2%, the effects of high energy prices have diminished, resulting in significantly lower levels of public dissatisfaction. Based on this, it can be inferred that Tokyo lacks compelling reasons to initiate intervention at present. Softer tone of warnings: In recent days, the Japanese government has intensified its warnings of potential intervention. However, it is notable that the tone of these warnings has not shifted significantly. Japanese officials continue to express concerns about sudden fluctuations in the foreign exchange market while cautioning about possible actions to address excessive yen volatility. In 2022, before implementing actual intervention, the Japanese authorities adopted a much more assertive tone, using phrases such as "deeply concerned" and "decisive steps." Such strong language is absent from their latest statements. Consequently, many analysts perceive the recent warnings by Japanese authorities as mere rhetoric rather than an indication of imminent intervention. what measures BoJ will take to protect further devaluation of the JPY Let's assess the likelihood of the Japanese authorities taking measures to protect their national currency and consider the most realistic scenario for preventing further devaluation of the JPY at this stage. Increased verbal intervention: Since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential tightening, the yen has experienced a sharp decline against the dollar. Japanese officials have responded by issuing daily warnings to speculators who try to profit from disparities in monetary policies between the Fed and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) by trading the USD/JPY pair. Given that the fundamental factors influencing the yen are unlikely to change in the near future, it is expected that traders will continue actively selling the Japanese currency. If the decline of the JPY accelerates, Tokyo may escalate its warnings, promising decisive action against speculative movements. Many experts view this scenario as the most likely one. Atsushi Takeda, an economist from the Itochu Research Institute, stated, "The yen's depreciation is not as significant as last year, as the United States approaches the peak of interest rates. There will likely be one or two more rate hikes. Therefore, we do not anticipate strong JPY volatility leading to further depreciation at this stage." Analysts believe that the Japanese government is primarily focused on managing the pace of currency depreciation rather than targeting a specific exchange rate. Therefore, it is expected that Tokyo will continue with verbal intervention as the USD/JPY pair approaches the 145 level, but it is unlikely to engage in actual market intervention if speculators exceed that threshold. Implementation of intervention: Last year, the Japanese government intervened in the market twice: in September when the yen approached 146 against the dollar, and in October when USD/JPY reached a 32-year high at 152. In 2022, Japan spent $65 billion on direct purchases of JPY. Implementing a new intervention would also incur significant costs for Tokyo, as the authorities would need to utilize the country's foreign exchange reserves to sell dollars. Taro Kimura, an analyst at Bloomberg Economics, noted, "Businesses and consumers are now more accepting of a weak yen compared to last year. The recent rally in Japanese stocks may also contribute to their positive sentiment." Considering these factors, along with the benefits of a weaker yen for exporters, experts consider the actual implementation of intervention at this stage to be unlikely. Japanese companies with a global presence have long been the major beneficiaries of a depreciated JPY, resulting in increased overseas earnings for firms such as Toyota, which added 1.3 trillion yen to its annual operating profit, and Sony, which experienced a sales increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yen across five key segments. Hideo Kumano, an analyst at the Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute, stated, "We believe the government will only intervene in the market if the yen suddenly falls to 150. Although they did so last year, currency intervention remains a last resort." Hawkish actions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ): Some market participants suggest that the BoJ could halt the yen's decline by adjusting its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. Speculation has arisen that the BoJ may make its first hawkish move as early as July. However, Bloomberg analysts believe this expectation is misguided. Toru Fujioka, an economic commentator, shared, "The BoJ has consistently stated that it does not intend to directly curb the yen's depreciation using monetary policy tools, as such actions exceed its mandate and may be seen as currency manipulation." According to Fujioka, the BoJ would only consider adjusting the YCC policy if the bond market experiences significant fluctuations similar to those seen last year, coupled with persistent inflation resulting from wage increases. My Trade Setup First Trade Setup : Sell level: 189.5-190.5 stop loss: 191.950 Take profit: 187.650 Second Trade Setup : Sell level: 195-196.2 stop loss: 197.57 Take profit: 192.240 Third Trade Setup : Sell level: 199.65-200.87 stop loss: 201.98 Take profit: 196.7, 192.87, 188.10 Long trade Setup : open long position from 190 and 196 zone stop loss: 210.500 take profit : 181.57, 170.35
Short
by AhsanTufail
ATOM/USDT 4H Interval ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to review the ATOM chart in pair to USDT, like its predecessor on the four-hour interval. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the downtrend channel in which the price is moving. Going further, we can move on to selecting support places, for this we will use the trend based fib extension tool. And here we will mark a significant support zone from $8.16 to $6.91, however, when the zone does not hold the price, we can see a drop around the second very strong zone from $5.90 to $4.91. Looking the other way, we see that the price is moving towards an important resistance zone from $10.54 to $11.37. If it manages to break out of this zone upwards, the price will move towards a strong resistance at $12.56 and further to the resistance at $14.05. Please look at the CHOP index, which indicates that the energy for the moment is used, the MACD indicates that we are moving in a local downtrend, while the RSI has a significant rebound to the lower part of the range, which may give a change in the trend in the coming hours.
by cryptodailyuk
ETH/USDT Long-Term Review 1DIntervalHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of ETH in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. Using the yellow line, we will mark the uptrend line, which, as we can see, holds the price nicely in corrections. Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the Fib Retracement tool to mark support, and here in the first place it is worth marking the support zone from $ 1845 to $ 1662, however, when the price drops below, we can see a return to a very strong support zone from $ 1363 to $ 1150. Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we have the first very strong resistance at the price of $2237, before which the price once again turned back, the next resistance is at the price of $2552, and then the third resistance at the price of $3007. When we turn on the EMA Cross 50 and 200, we can see the place of transition into a strong uptrend and how far the price stays in this trend. The CHOP index indicates that we have a lot of energy to use. The MACD indicator is in an uptrend. On the other hand, we have a rebound on the RSI, however, looking at the fact that we are in the upper part of the range, the price may go down to a lower level.
by cryptodailyuk