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Inflation, Oil and Gold Prices: Understanding the basics The monetary markets are continually responding to unused data, and swelling, oil costs, and gold costs are a few of the foremost imperative components that financial specialists consider. This article will give a TradingView direct to understanding how these components can influence the stock and forex markets, and how dealers can utilize them to their advantage. Inflation Swelling is the rate at which costs for merchandise and administrations are rising. When swelling is tall, it can disintegrate the esteem of investment funds and speculations, and it can too lead to higher intrigued rates. For stock financial specialists, expansion can be a negative calculate, because it can lead to higher costs for companies and lower benefits. For forex dealers, expansion can have a blended affect, depending on the monetary forms included. For case, if inflation is higher within the Joined together States than in Europe, it may lead to a more grounded US dollar. Oil prices Oil is one of the foremost critical commodities within the world, and its cost can have a noteworthy affect on the worldwide economy. When oil costs are tall, it can lead to higher swelling and slower financial development. For stock speculators, tall oil costs can be a negative figure, as they can lead to higher costs for companies and lower benefits. For forex dealers, oil costs can have a blended affect, depending on the monetary standards included. For illustration, in case oil costs rise, it seem lead to a more grounded Canadian dollar, as Canada could be a major oil exporter. Gold prices Gold is regularly seen as a secure sanctuary resource, and its cost can rise when there's uncertainty or turmoil within the money related markets. For stock speculators, gold costs can be a great fence against swelling and showcase instability. For forex dealers, gold costs can have a blended affect, depending on the monetary standards included. For case, on the off chance that gold costs rise, it may lead to a weaker US dollar, as financial specialists may offer dollars to purchase gold. How to approach these components There are a number of ways to exchange expansion, oil costs, and gold costs. One way is to exchange the fundamental resources themselves. For illustration, stock speculators can purchase offers of companies that are included within the oil and gas industry, or they can purchase offers of gold mining companies. Forex dealers can purchase and offer cash sets that are connected to oil or gold costs. Another way to exchange these variables is to utilize subordinates, such as prospects contracts and choices contracts. Subsidiaries permit dealers to wagered on the heading of costs without having to claim the fundamental resources. For case, a stock financial specialist seem purchase a prospects contract on oil to wagered on higher oil costs. A forex dealer may purchase a call alternative on gold to wagered on higher gold costs. Conclusion Expansion, oil costs, and gold costs are vital variables to consider when exchanging the stock and forex markets. By understanding how these variables can influence the markets, dealers can create methodologies to benefit from them. How to use this information to trade the stock and forex markets: (Not financial advice!) As mentioned above, there are a number of ways to trade inflation, oil prices, and gold prices. Here are a few examples: Stock investors: Buy shares of companies that are involved in the oil and gas industry, such as ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Buy shares of gold mining companies, such as Newmont Corporation (NEM) and Barrick Gold (GOLD). Buy shares of companies that are known to hedge against inflation, such as consumer staples companies such as Procter & Gamble (PG) and Coca-Cola (KO). Forex traders: Buy currency pairs that are linked to oil prices, such as the Canadian dollar/US dollar (USDCAD) currency pair. Buy currency pairs that are linked to gold prices, such as the Australian dollar/US dollar (AUDUSD) currency pair. Use technical analysis to identify trends and patterns in oil and gold prices, and then trade the currencies that are linked to these commodities. It is important to note that trading is a risky activity, and there is no guarantee of profits. However, by understanding the factors that can affect the stock and forex markets, traders can develop strategies to manage their risk and increase their chances of success. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: tradingeconomics.com US Energy Information Administration: oilprice.com World Gold Council: goldprice.org I hope this post is helpful. If you agree with the idea, please follow and share this with others too. This analysis is based on the information at the date it is posted. This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information. Any feedback is encouraged and appreciated. Thank you and have a nice day!
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by YExplore
EUR USD IdeaRegarding the EUR/USD pair, our swing trade attempt from the previous daily fractal high didn't succeed, and we observed a downward movement. Looking at the Fibonacci range, we find ourselves at the upper end of the range. We're in a bullish momentum unless there's a shift to the downside. Additionally, we've noticed a significant concentration of stops above our current price levels. It's essential to be aware of these levels, although we can never predict the exact targets of market makers. A logical approach might be to wait for a price decline before considering new trades. These are the technical insights for today. Let's see how the day unfolds.
Short
by themarketknight
DOLLAR IdeaGood morning, traders. Yesterday, we witnessed a push down in the dollar and an upward move in EUR/USD. We're still trading within a range, and we noticed the first sign of weakness in the dollar index as it failed to make a lower low. Today, we have news releases that can influence the dollar, so exercise caution when trading dollar pairs. We're patiently waiting for a swing trade opportunity on EUR/USD, but first, we need to see the dollar break through levels around 105.500. Once that happens, we'll actively look for swing trades on EUR/USD. Stay patient, my friends. There's no need to take unnecessary risks. The market offers plenty of opportunities. Happy trading!
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by themarketknight
MKR/USDT 1DChart ReviewI invite you to review the chart of MKR paired with USDT. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the downward trend from which MKR came out on top, while locally, we can use the blue lines to mark the upward trend channel in which the price is moving. When we unfold the Fib Retracement grid, we will notice that the price has approached the support level of $1,340, which is currently keeping the price from falling further, but when it breaks, we have another support level of $1,179, and further we can mark a strong support zone from $1,050 to $920. Looking the other way, we see that the price has been rejected from the important resistance zone from $1,503 to $1,741, which it has no strength to break yet. However, if we manage to break out of this zone, we will move towards the resistance level of $2,081 and then towards the resistance level of $2,508. At this point, it is worth marking the moving average EMA Cross 200, from which the price has gone up and, despite the current recovery, it remains above the blue line, remaining in a strong upward trend. Please look at the CHOP index, which indicates that we have a lot of energy for the upcoming move, on the STOCH indicator we are at the lower limit, which has resulted in the current decline slowing down, while on the RSI indicator we are returning to the middle of the range, despite the price dropping lower, we are getting closer. to the point where we previously started to grow again, which is worth keeping in mind.
by cryptodailyuk
2
MATIC/USDT 1DIntervalI invite you to review the MATIC chart. As we can see, the price dropped below the blue EMA Cross 200 line, thus returning to the strong downtrend. However, here, after marking the downtrend channel, we can notice that the price breaks out of it sideways, which may have a positive impact on it and may translate into a change in direction. When we unfold the Fib Retracement grid, we can see that the price has returned and remains in a very strong support zone that starts at $0.58 and continues up to $0.31. Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the resistance areas that the price must face. And here we see that there was a strong rejection of the price from the zone from $0.74 to $0.90, but when the price breaks it, it will have an open path towards the second zone from $1.15 to $1.33. The CHOP Index indicates that the energy is gaining more and more strength. However, the STOCH and RSI indicators show a visible recovery with room for the price to drop to a lower level.
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by cryptodailyuk
ETH/USDT 1DInterval ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to review the ETH pair to USDT chart, also on a one-day time frame. First, we can use the blue lines to mark the upward trend channel in which the price is currently moving in the lower range. We also see that the ETH price made a negative attempt to break out of the blue EMA Cross 200 line, remaining in a downward trend. Now let's move on to marking the support places. We will use the Trend Based Fib Retracement tool to mark supports, and as you can see, the price remains at the lower limit of the current support zone from $1,664 to $1,551, but if we fall below this zone, the price may exit the channel below and return to the vicinity of the strong support zone from $1,389 to $1,184. Looking to the second one, we see that the price has rebounded from the resistance level at $1,734 for the second time, only when it is overcome will we move towards the next resistance levels at $1,891 and then $2,017, then the price will move towards the very strong resistance zone of $2,143 to $2,321. Index CHOP indicates that energy has been used. The MACD indicator is on the verge of entering a local downtrend. However, we see a rebound on the RSI, but we remain in an upward trend.
by cryptodailyuk
1
BTC/USDT 1D Review CHartHello everyone, I invite you to Tuesday's review of the current situation on BTC in the USDT pair, taking into account the one-day time frame. First, we will use blue lines to mark the upward trend channel from which, as you can see, the price has come out at the bottom. Therefore, at this point, you need to determine a new side trend channel in which the price is currently moving. When we turn on the EMA Cross 200, we can see that the BTC price has gone above the blue moving average line of 200, and we are currently struggling to stay in the uptrend. Now we can move on to marking support areas in case the correction deepens. And here, first of all, it is worth marking the support zone from $25,617 to $23,654, from which the price has already bounced several times, but when we fall below this zone, we may see a drop to the vicinity of the second, very strong support zone from $21,748 to $18,976. Looking the other way, we can determine resistance locations in a similar way using the Fib Retracement tool. And here you can see that the price is again approaching the resistance at the level of $28,043, only when we go up above it, we will see an attempt to attack the very strong resistance at the level of $31,912, which is also the upper limit of the currently ongoing sideways trend channel, then a path will open up direction $35,724. Please pay attention to the CHOP index, which indicates that the energy is slowly starting to grow, on the STOCH indicator we are near the upper limit, which may result in a greater recovery, but on the RSI indicator we are back near the middle of the range and considering that we have not touched the upper limit, we can see a new attempt at growth after the current recovery.
by cryptodailyuk
2
US CPI Data, Fed Rate Hike Decision Due This Week: Implications The US Customer Cost Record (CPI) information for September is due to be discharged on Wednesday, taken after by the US Government Reserve's intrigued rate choice on the same day. Both of these occasions have the potential to altogether affect the forex and stock markets. The CPI information could be a degree of expansion, and a higher-than-expected perusing may lead to assist tightening of monetary arrangement by the Encouraged. This can be since the Bolstered is entrusted with keeping expansion in check, and it'll likely raise intrigued rates on the off chance that expansion is running too high. A higher-than-expected CPI perusing might too lead to a sell-off in stock markets. This is often since higher intrigued rates can make it more expensive for companies to borrow cash and contribute, and it can moreover weigh on buyer investing. The Fed's intrigued rate choice is additionally likely to have a major affect on the forex and stock markets. A 75 premise point rate climb by the Bolstered is broadly anticipated, but a larger-than-expected rate climb might lead to a sell-off in stock markets and a more grounded US dollar. Forex Suggestions A higher-than-expected CPI perusing or a larger-than-expected rate climb by the Nourished may lead to a more grounded US dollar. This is often since financial specialists tend to purchase secure safe house resources, such as the US dollar, when they are expecting higher intrigued rates or instability within the markets. Stock Suggestions A higher-than-expected CPI perusing or a larger-than-expected rate climb by the Fed may lead to a sell-off in stock markets. This is since higher interest rates can make it more costly for companies to borrow cash and contribute, and it can too weigh on customer investing. Conclusion The US CPI data and the Fed's intrigued rate choice are two of the foremost critical financial occasions of the week. Both of these occasions have the potential to significantly impact the forex and stock markets. Speculators are exhorted to screen these occasions closely and be arranged for instability. Sources: Bloomberg: "US CPI Data, Fed Rate Hike Decision Due This Week" Reuters: "US CPI Expected to Ease in September, But Stay Elevated" I hope this post is helpful. If you agree with the idea, please follow and share this with others too. This analysis is based on the information at the date it is posted. This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information. Any feedback is encouraged and appreciated. Thank you and have a nice day!
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by YExplore
#JPY upside potentialHi, dear traders and colleagues, Let's take a look at the JPY basket and analyze its potential implications in relation to other currencies. The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been weakening for a considerable period due to the policies implemented by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). However, given that we are now at the end of the hiking cycle in other central banks, it is reasonable to assume that the interest rate differential between JPY and other currencies will start to decrease. This shift could potentially lead to the JPY gaining strength. To support this hypothesis, we can examine the chart, where the price recently broke above a long-standing bearish channel with an impulsive move. This breakout suggests that there might be further bullish momentum in store. Another noteworthy factor that adds confidence to the authenticity of this upside breakout, unlike the previous false breakout marked within the box, is the current price action. During the previous false breakout, the price formed a V-top chart pattern, resulting in a bullish impulsive move followed by a bearish impulsive move. This indicated that the breakout was driven by news events and was not sustainable. However, in the current scenario, we see the price consolidating after the upside breakout and not immediately retracing back into the channel range. This gives us reason to believe that this breakout is more likely to be genuine and mature over time. Now, in terms of trading, an upside move in the JPY basket implies that currencies paired against the JPY are likely to face challenges and experience downside movements. This includes currency pairs like EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, and so on. To identify potential entry points, we are currently monitoring two key areas. The first area of interest is marked by the arrow line, which points to yesterday's low. We are keen to observe how the price reacts around this level. The second area to watch is the 4-hour timeframe supply area, which coincides with the upper line of our bearish channel. This area could serve as a potential retest point for the price. Keep a close eye on these areas for potential trading opportunities, and remember to adapt your strategy as the market evolves. Happy trading!
FX:JPYBASKETLong
by mohemati
1
USOIL WEEKLY UPDATE hello trader... I noticed a divergence in the daily oil chart between the rsi and waves 3 and 5. Rsi is still over 50 level in daily chart, which leads me to believe that the uptrend is still in progress. yet H4 rsi is currently below 50 level. My plan is to short around $93.7 and monitor the RSI daily whether I can stay below the 50 level or any news from us or any oil announcement . a break above previous high might took oil to next resistance level at $101. so hold you buy. **I have no intention of using my trading approach as a signal. I'm practicing my trading strategies, learning about market dynamics, and figuring out the best way to enter the market in the right direction.
BLACKBULL:USOIL.FShort
by mytw0cents
Now what will be the goal of Gold, see our analysisWe saw that on Friday, when the NFP news came, the market was running at 1820. After that, the market went down and reached 1811.   The market went up to 1835, after which it went down a little. On Friday, the market closed at 1832, and when the market opened today, it opened with a gap, and at that time it was running until 1852.   If the market breaks 1846, then our next target is 1830, which is also support; if the market breaks 1830, then our next targets are 1816 and 1799; and on the other hand, if the market breaks the resistance of 1857, then our next targets are 1870 and 1880.   Due to the war between Palestine and Israel, the whole market is not stable. We request that you monitor the market again and again and use your stop-loss
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MsProTrading
5
THE WORLD IS CHANGING, SO IS THE OIL PRICE MOVEMENTSCAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENT On the fundamental side, Brent oil prices have been supported by a number of factors in recent months, including: Strong global economic growth, which has boosted demand for oil. Supply disruptions caused by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The decision by OPEC+ to cut production by 2 million barrels per day. The war in Iran, which has raised concerns about further supply disruptions. However, there are also some headwinds facing Brent oil prices, including: The potential for a global economic recession, which would reduce demand for oil. The release of oil from strategic reserves by the United States and other countries. The increasing popularity of electric vehicles, which could reduce demand for oil in the long term. Overall, the fundamental outlook for Brent oil is bullish. The factors supporting prices are likely to outweigh the headwinds in the near term, but there are some risks to the upside potential. Technical analysis On the technical side, Brent oil is currently in an uptrend. On the 30-minute chart, the price is above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the RSI indicator is above 50. This suggests that the bulls are in control and that the price is likely to continue to rise in the near term. On the 4-hour chart, the price is also above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the MACD indicator is giving a bullish crossover signal. This further confirms the uptrend on the 4-hour chart. On the daily chart, the price is also above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the RSI indicator is above 50. This suggests that the uptrend is likely to continue on the daily chart as well. Elliott wave analysis Elliott wave analysis suggests that Brent oil is currently in the fifth wave of a five-wave Elliott wave sequence. This means that the price is likely to continue to rise until it reaches its target, which is around $100 per barrel. Conclusion Overall, the fundamental and technical outlook for Brent oil is bullish. The price is likely to continue to rise in the near term, with a target of around $100 per barrel. However, investors should be aware of the risks posed by a potential global economic recession and the ongoing war in Iran. Additional thoughts on the war in Iran The war in Iran is a significant wildcard for the oil market. If the war escalates, it could lead to a major disruption in oil supplies, which would send prices soaring. However, it is also possible that the war will be resolved quickly, with minimal impact on the oil market. Investors should closely monitor the situation in Iran and be prepared to adjust their positions accordingly. I am deeply saddened by any war and the conflicts happening around the world. My heart goes out to all those who have been affected by this violence. I know that words alone cannot heal the pain of those who have lost loved ones or been displaced from their homes. However, I want to express my solidarity with all those who are suffering and to let them know that they are not alone. I believe that peace and understanding are essential for a better future. I hope that we can find a way to resolve these conflicts peacefully and build a more just and equitable world for all. This being said, coming back to our analysis, good luck everyone in your financial decisions.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENTLong
by YExplore
LTC/USDT 4HInterval ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of LTC in pair with USDT, on a four-hour interval. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the downward trend lines from which the price has gone up, while locally we can see that we are moving in a sideways trend channel. Moving forward, we can move on to marking support areas when we return to the correction. And here you can see that the lower border of the channel is also a support zone lasting from $63.28 to $61.97, but when we fall lower, we still have support at $60.10, and then support at $57.69. Looking the other way, we see that the price has reached an important resistance zone from $65.71 to $67.91, which it does not have the strength to break yet. However, if we manage to break out of this zone and the upper border of the channel, we still have strong resistance at $70.69. Please look at the CHOP index, which indicates that we have a lot of energy for the upcoming move. On the STOCH indicator, we are exceeding the upper limit, which may end the current upward movement and translate into a price recovery, while on the RSI indicator, there is still room for the price to grow.
by cryptodailyuk
3
Gold- Before NFP and beyond technical analysisLet's think beyond technical analysis and consider what Gold is likely to do. We all see it's at a support level, and we're expecting a correction after a 1000 pip drop. In the long term, it's in a descending channel, and to reach the channel's resistance, it needs to rise to 1880, which is 600 pips away. So, two questions arise: Is it that simple for Gold to stay put for three days so everyone can buy and profit? Secondly, who's selling if everyone sees this? Are they blind, or do they want to lose? With that in mind, I believe Gold will continue to decline, and I have two scenarios for NFP: 1. A spike up and then a drop below support. 2. A direct drop below support. Of course, I could be wrong.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
20
Latest Gold Idea Next Target is?We have seen that since yesterday, the market has been moving between 1830 and 1816.   It has not been able to break the support at 1816, and neither has it been able to break the resistance at 1830, because 1830 is a strong resistance and 1816 is a strong support.   If the current market is running at 1822, then the market may go up a little.   From 1830, the market may come back, or if it breaks the resistance of 1830, then our next resistance is 1835, and we think that breaking 1835 is very difficult, and from there, the market will come down again, and our next target is if the market breaks the support at 1816, then our final target is 1809 or 1790.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MsProTrading
5
What is the target of gold? Check idea.Yes, let's see what the trend of the market is.   We see that the market is running exactly as it was yesterday because neither the market has yet broken the support at 1816 nor the resistance at 1830.   Seeing that the market is currently at 1823, we believe the market will go up a bit.   If the market fails to break the 1830 resistance, then it will come down again, and our targets for today are 1806 and 1790. If the market breaks the 1830 resistance, then our next resistance is 1835, and we hope that the market will definitely come down from there and meet our target, which is 1806 or 1790. If you like our analysis, then you can boost our posts. You can leave a comment in the comment section.   Good luck and best wishes to everyone.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MsProTrading
1
Gold Next Target: $1790.00? Check idea We have seen that the price has been going down continuously for the last several days, and yesterday gold reached $1820.00, which has pulled back a bit and is running up to $1826.00.   Our resistance is 1830 if it crosses it next.   Our resistance is 1835; we expect gold to bounce back from 1835 and come down; and our target is $1816, $1809, and $1790.00.   Apart from this, we also have news that will be released at 2 PM according to UK time, which can also affect the market, so keep watching the latest news, and our target is 1816, 1809, and 1790. We have resistance at 1830, 1835, and 1845, and also support at 1825, 1816, and 1809. We believe that if the market closes below 1816 and breaks the 1816 support, our next targets are 1809 and 1790.   If you like our analysis, then you can boost our posts. You can leave a comment in the comment section.   Good luck and best wishes to everyone.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MsProTrading
2
See our analysis of what the next target for gold isHello everyone, We hope you guys are having a great weekend.   We have seen over the past several days that gold has been consistently down since 1947, when it was back, and has been consistently down, never going up.   When the market closed on Friday, gold was running at 1848, while 1846 is a very strong support.   We think that gold will pull back from here and go between 1874 and 1878 because 1879 is a very strong resistance.   Again, gold will come down, and our target is 1830. If you like our analysis, then you can boost our posts. You can leave a comment in the comment section. Good luck and best wishes to everyone.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MsProTrading
7
Qualitative Fundamental Analysis of US Economy Oct.2023The most important factor for the economy is the behaviour of GDP. Several economic indicators are tracked to determine the overall economic situation and GDP growth. A technical recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP. If GDP grows less than 3% on average for the year, the economy is not growing fast enough and this will lead to unemployment. At its core, the Federal Reserve has dual mandate policy: price stability(2% inflation for a year) and maximum employment (max Unemployment rate 4%) . CPI Inflation projection: inflation is forecast at 4.7% in 2023 and is expected to further slow down to 3.0% in 2024. Actual CPI : 3.7 % PCE Inflation projection: inflation to be 3.3 percent in 2023, 2.6 percent in 2024, and 2.2 percent in 2025, and the Federal Reserve expects a similar outlook of 3.3 percent, 2.5 Actual PCE : 3.5% Unemployment rate projection: The unemployment rate reaches 4.1 percent by the end of 2023 and 4.7 percent by the end of 2024 before falling slightly, to 4.5 percent, in 2025. Actual: 3,8% GDP Growth projection: Real GDP increases by 1.5 percent in 2024 and by 2.4 percent in 2025. Actual: 2,4% Interest rates projection:The Fed now expects its benchmark federal funds rate to close out 2024 at an effective rate of 5.1%, which is higher than its June forecast of 4.6% Interest rates: 5.5% MONEY MARKET Yields From the chart above we can see when the recession is coming. The 10Y-2Y has already fallen below 0 and we should prepare for a recession when it comes above 0. The yield curve (all yields) is slightly inverted, but only because of the 20-year yields. The overall curve is normal, which means that investors are not worried about the future, at least for now and they invest more in long-term bonds. According to the FED, we should expect a mild recession at the end of this year. The SP500 seems to be consolidating for the next few months. Corporate Bonds and Credit Spread Spreads are relatively stable. They do not point to a recession. Money Supply M2 The money supply is also stable, which means that the printer is not running. This is a good sign considering the banking crisis. interest rates The last time IR was so high was during the last recession in 2008. History could repeat itself. At the last FOMC meeting, the FED paused rates but said they would remain high. This could be exactly what happened in 2007. FED paused after aggressive hike and recession came. SERVEYS ISM PMI, NMI The historical correlation between real GDP growth and the ISM PMI/NMI is 85%. PMI/NMI are leading indicators and they will predict how GDP will move. It is a short to long term prediction (within 12 months). The reading continued to point to another albeit smaller deterioration in the manufacturing performance, as contractions in output and new orders softened. Meanwhile, sufficient stocks of inputs and finished items, alongside still subdued demand, led firms to reduce their purchasing activity sharply again and firms continued to work through inventories in lieu of expanding their input buying, which contributed to a further improvement in supplier performance. Consumer Sentiment Index(UMCSI) The level of consumer confidence in stability and future prospects can be used to understand the overall trend in the economy. Still, consumers are unsure about the trajectory of the economy given multiple sources of uncertainty, for example over the possible shutdown of the federal government and labor disputes in the auto industry. From a technical perspective the chart looks very suspicious. Like bullback before the new swing. Will see. Building Permits The jump in permits suggested that new construction continues to thrive, driven by a shortage of homes available in the market, despite the dampening effect of rising mortgage rates on housing demand. NFIB Business optimism index Twenty-three percent of small business owners reported that inflation was their single most important business problem, up two points from last month. Also, the number of small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months declined (seven points from July to a net negative 37%). “With small business owners’ views about future sales growth and business conditions discouraging, owners want to hire and make money now from strong consumer spending,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Inflation and the worker shortage continue to be the biggest obstacles for Main Street. Overall the business is not optimistic for the near future. Leading Economic Index The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The US LEI continues to signal a recession. Combined with the yield curves, it looks like a recession could be coming very soon. INFLATION Total Inflation = 30% CPI (demand) + 40% PCE(supply) + 30% other factors) CPI The FED's target may be 2%, but the reality is that inflation is between 2-4%. Inflation has risen again in recent months and current oil prices suggest that it will remain high. Investors are worried about future prices. The same thing happened in the 80s. The FED does not want the same to happen today, which is why they have been so hawkish recently. Core CPI This projection is very scary, but if the economy goes crazy, it can happen, just like in the 80s. I am not predicting that core CPI will rise that much, just pointing out the similarity. PCE Inflation The US personal consumption expenditure price index rose 3.5% year-on-year in August 2023, the most in four months, after an upwardly revised 3.4% rise in July and in line with market expectations. PPI / Core PPI The producer price inflation in the United States accelerated to 1.6% year-on-year in August 2023. This is the second consecutive month. GOVERNMENT Balance sheet The balance sheet is falling, which is deflationary. On the one hand, this is good and gives us an indication that inflation should be contained, but on the other hand, it is a sign of recession. [b ]Cyclical Commodities Trade weighted US Dollar Index Rising trade indices are actually deflationary for the economy. Commodities They stable prices do not give us a clear picture of the near future. Stocks The benchmark indices are falling. The failed to make new HH, suggesting that the will consolidate or fall. Sometimes they are seen as a leading indicator of future GDP and recession. Summery The current pause in interest rates, with the hawkish narrative that rates will stay high for a long time, could be the second phase of the business cycle. The next one is recession. Yield curves have also suggested that the recession is not as far away as we think. The surveys are relatively stable, but the overall picture is not so optimistic. Inflation is on the rise again, which may lead the FED to be more aggressive. They have said many times that they would rather have a recession than a price explosion. They have even warned about a mild recession, how mild we will see. The unemployment rate is still below 4%, but in recent months it has risen from 3.5% to 3.8%. Rising unemployment is a sign of recession. Stock indices have risen in recent months, but future expectations of a new recession, combined with high interest rates and business optimism, are bearish factors for the stock market.
FRED:T10Y2Y
by SerpentForexClub
2
ETH/USDT 1DInterval Review ChartHello everyone, I invite you to review the ETH pair to USDT chart, also on a one-day time frame. First of all, we can use the blue lines to mark the downward trend channel in which the price has been moving for a long time, while locally, using the yellow line we can mark the downward trend lines from which the price has gone up, but here you can see that after crossing the blue line EMA Cross 200 the price was quickly withdrawn, which confirms the continued downward trend. Now let's move on to marking the support places. We will use the Fib Retracement tool to mark supports, and as you can see, the price has left the strong support zone from $1,664 to $1,535, only when it falls below this zone can we see a drop to the support level of $1,369. Looking the other way, we can similarly mark places where the price should encounter resistance on the way up. And here we can see the price retreating before the resistance level at $1,765, then we have a visible resistance zone from $1,838 to $1,910, only after breaking upwards from this zone should the price attempt to attack the levels of $2,013 and then the level of $2,143. The CHOP Index indicates that most of the energy has been used. The STOCH indicator shows that the upper limit has been exceeded, which has exhausted the energy and resulted in a price recovery, while the RSI indicator, despite the increase, still shows room for the price to go higher, which indicates that when the energy regains, we may see another upward movement.
by cryptodailyuk
4
BTC growth, what's next?Hello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation of BTC in the USDT pair, taking into account the one-day time frame. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the downward trend line and, as we can see, the price has moved upwards from this line, and we can also see that in the same place the price has broken the blue EMA Cross 200 line, which indicates a return to the upward trend. Now we can move on to marking support areas in the event of a correction. And here, after unfolding the Fib Retracement grid, we first have support at the level of $27,483, and then we need to mark a very strong support zone from $26,284 to $24,777. Looking the other way, we can determine resistance areas in a similar way. First of all, we will mark the resistance that the price is currently struggling with at the level of $28,360. As you can see, at the moment the price has returned to this level, only when it is positively tested will it move towards the resistance zone from $29,175 to $30,337. and then we have strong resistance at $31,819. Please pay attention to the CHOP index, which indicates that most of the energy has been used, the STOCH index also exceeded the upper limit, which resulted in the inhibition of the upward movement, but the RSI index shows an increase, but with room for the price to go further, which is worth taking into account .
by cryptodailyuk
2
DXY comparison chart to 1990'sIn the 90's the DXY capitulated after completing a trend based time measurement. Trend based time fib tool used with 3 anchor points utilizing the 2 lows and a high. If we use the same tools on the current data we can see that there is another opportunity coming that looks strikingly similar to the chart from the 90's. US Government shut down is imminent and if it lasts more than a week or two could seriously hurt the US Dollar. This would be a great narrative to compliment what the charts are already hinting towards.
TVC:DXYShort
by TRIP_00