xauusdit seems to look like have bying price as we see it on the chart, confusion is will price drop on nfp..?? what you all think let me know in the comment.
Fundamental-analysis
Buy GBP/JPY Symmetric TriangleThe GBP/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 198.05
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 200.71
2nd Resistance – 202.43
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 196.20. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 29, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair is trading on a stronger note around 1.28750 in the early hours of European trading on Monday. The dollar's decline amid hopes of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September is providing some support to the major pair. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will be published on Wednesday, no changes in the rate are expected.
Most analysts and traders expect the Fed to leave the interest rate unchanged at its next meeting on Wednesday. The U.S. Federal Reserve may signal this week that an interest rate cut is around the corner, although many expect it to hold rates steady until its next rate decision in September. Investors now see the first rate cut coming by mid-September, estimating a 100% Fed rate cut of at least a quarter percentage point by then, according to CME FedWatch Tool data.
Traders will also be watching the FOMC press conference closely for new stimulus. A dovish FOMC tone could undermine the US Dollar and create a tailwind for GBP/USD.
As for the British Pound, the Bank of England may cut interest rates at its August meeting on Thursday, which would be the first rate cut since 2020. Markets are predicting a 50% probability of a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, although opinions are divided on whether the cut will happen now or at the next meeting in September.
Trading recommendation: Trade in the 1.28400-1.28850 channel on a bounce from the levels.
BTC.........Is it Accumulation or Distribution?????Price is with a range from 72k to 58k, with price pushing lower and trading within the 66k lvl. With the FED holding rates at 5.50% and signaling that it may hold rates at current lvls for longer, it is hitting the crypto market. There is a lot of self-fulling prophecy out there about when the FED will cut rates, with some looking at the timeframe being in September. There is a FED rate decision in July which could set the stage for the September Rate Decision. Before then, the FOMC Minutes will be coming out, along with another NFP and inflation rate reading. With traders and investors wanting to see some reprieve and a stronger FED Dot Plot pointing at 2 or more rate hikes for the year, a lower printing on the NFP and inflation and a slowing economy, will give some cheer to the market and push BTC higher. But on the other side, strong economic printing and inflation stagnating and staying where it is at or rising, will likely sweep the legs of crypto and cause price to fall. The US economy (whether you believe so or not) data is showing that there is no need to start reducing rates as of yet. GDP is around 3%, unemployment isn't to bad. Wage Growth is still up there near 5%. Inflation is still above 3% and the FED is reducing its balance sheet.
The technicals are showing mixed data which could keep price from finding a trajectory until a solid catalyst comes out. The daily chart is showing price is form either a cup and handle or a double top. If the cup and handle pattern is correct then some type of strong catalyst came out (likely the NFP printed a extremely weak number, inflation dropped considerably, a string of bad US economy data) and had enough force to break out of the very strong 72k resistance. If that resistance is broken with enough force to push it up to 75k pretty quickly, there isn't much to stop it. But if the double top is correct, then price will likely push to the 62k and test the 60k a few times before breaking below it. If the 58k is broken and price is able to hold at the 57k for a few days to a week, then price will likely drop further, below the 55k.
Data is going to be the driving point for what price will do. If data keeps printing good and bad, then it will likely cause confusion for traders and investors and they will likely take the course of exiting. There are some prominent players out there like Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) and other advocates of BTC (Robert Kiyosaki) that are likely to stay in and potentially keep price from tumbling greatly; but it still depends when the masses and hedge funds want to start piling in.
I am thinking that if BTC does drop and hits below the 55k, there is likely to be a huge spike in buying up BTC as the self-fulling prophecy will be strong. The catalyst is likely to be when the FED will start reducing rates as eventually the economy will need some assistance. But the real question, is if the economy does push into a recession, will there be another case of QE and Stimulus pushed out (bailouts) if inflation is still around 2.5%-3%?
Either way, I am still building a position on BTC even if it pushes below the 50k lvl.
xauusddaily support break with strong bounce from 2350, price respected beautifully as accepted. as we look at the chart we still have the short position 2400, with fvg around 2404 to 2408.
coming next week will be the what market will de. if break solid above 2400 on daily candlle then price may continue rising till 2500 or above then fall.
tet me know what is your opinion. comment below.
USDCADhere it is price has squeezed to the upside
let's wait for confirmation and we will place the trede.
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 26, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair is trading near 1.08600 during the Asian session on Friday, continuing to rise after rebounding from the two-week low of 1.08250 recorded on Wednesday. The rise in EUR/USD is attributed to a weaker US Dollar (USD) ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index for June.
However, the US Dollar may limit its decline as stronger US economic data has reduced some expectations of a rate cut in September. On Thursday, US gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) came in stronger than expected. This followed the US PMI data released on Wednesday, which pointed to an acceleration in private sector activity in July, indicating that growth in the US is resilient despite higher interest rates.
US GDP rose 2.8% on a seasonally adjusted and inflation-adjusted annualized basis from the previous reading of 1.4% and beat forecasts of 2%. In addition, the composite PMI rose to 55.0 from a previous reading of 54.8, the highest reading since April 2022 and indicative of steady growth over the past 18 months.
The Euro struggled as the European Central Bank's (ECB) near-term outlook remains uncertain due to strong expectations of additional rate cuts. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates two more times this year as price pressures are expected to remain at current levels for a year and only return to the bank's target level in 2025.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Market Overview Part 31 Me Going Over How I Trade With My Robin Trap Strategy In Deep Detail With How I use Market Structure And Multiple Timeframes!
Buy EUR/JPY Head & Shoulder PatternThe EUR/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to formation Head & Shoulder pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 167.12. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 169.38
2nd Support – 171.10
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 164.60. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Collecting Rollover while the TRY RangesThe CBRT has raised rates from 8.5% in June 2023 to currently standing at 50%. There was a recent CBRT meeting where rates where held at 50%. There has been a roll coaster for inflation YoY which was below 20% in 2020, rose as high as 36% in 2021, pushed up to 85.50% in 2022, dropped in 2023 to around 38% at its lowest, then pushed higher to standing at 69.8% currently. It is projected that inflation will push above the 70% lvl this year and eventually cap out and start pushing lower. The Lira is being hit hard and has lost over 80% of its value over five years due to the unorthodox method the President implemented.
But with this said, there are things going for the TRY, which is a nice carry trade (I'm in it to win it...corny (yeah I know)), with around an 18%-27% annualized gain (fluctuates), this could be some serious gains (and price has been ranging, so that is good). With the FED potentially go to lower rates in September and with the CBRT having rates at 50%, this could cause the TRY to either keep ranging or eventually push lower. But the CBRT might have to raise rates higher in order to fight inflation that is almost 20% higher than its interest rate. This makes the 30 lvl seem that much more plausible to be hit. Additionally, price is trading towards the 32 lvl and has attempted to trade below the 30 lvl a couple of times. So another hit to the 30 lvl support could potentially push it to my price target of around 27 (mean while I'll be able to collect some rollover). A standard lot holding this pair could bring in around $49 a day (depending on the rate for that day) which is a decent amount. The margin requirement for this pair, at least with my broker is 1:4, which means this pair is highly volatile and risky.
This pair can move thousands of pips in a matter of seconds and the spreads are sometimes outrageous. But, around a 1.2 micro lot would be less than $375 in margin, each pip would be a $0.01 move, and rollover per day earned would be around $0.56 a day.
The is a good chance that price will stay were it is at and push lower. The 33-35 lvl is the cap, but for price to push as high as 35, there would have to some strong catalysts to make that happen. I think this is all a self-fulling prophecy with all waiting to see when the FED will make its move. For now, the plan is to keep building in this pair, collect rollover, and wait until at least the 30 lvl is hit to make another decision on whether I want to see it play through to the 27 lvl.
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 25, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) continues its uptrend against the US dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive session, staying near the 12-week high of 152.640 set on Thursday. The yen's strengthening is likely due to traders unwinding asset trades ahead of next week's Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting.
The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting next week, which will force short sellers to cover their positions and strengthen the yen. In addition, the BOJ is expected to outline plans to reduce its bond purchases to scale back its massive monetary stimulus.
On Wednesday, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and chief currency diplomat Masato Kanda avoided commenting on currency issues, causing the USD/JPY pair to fall to its lowest level in two months, according to Reuters.
The U.S. dollar may strengthen as the latest U.S. PMI data showed an acceleration in private sector activity growth in July, underscoring the resilience of U.S. growth despite higher interest rates. The data gives the Federal Reserve (Fed) more leeway to maintain restrictive policy if inflation shows no signs of easing.
Investors are expected to keep a close eye on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) annualized (Q2) data on Thursday and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation on Friday. These reports are expected to provide new insights into the US economic situation.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
xauusdmoring session was beautiful, as did it on live as weel risking 15 pip against target 100 pips,
thank you for following me. as we all can see the numbers and the price tag on the 15 min chart.
any comment would be nice .
Insider Knowledge: Exploiting the House Money EffectIntroduction
In trading and investing, psychological biases significantly influence decision-making. One such bias is the "House Money Effect." Understanding this effect can help traders avoid common pitfalls and take advantage of this phenomenon.
What is the House Money Effect?
The House Money Effect is a psychological phenomenon where individuals are more likely to take risks with money they have won rather than their initial capital. In trading, this means traders become more risk-tolerant after experiencing gains, treating profits as "house money" and taking on higher risks than they would with their own capital.
Why Does It Happen?
The House Money Effect occurs due to several psychological factors:
Mental Accounting : People tend to treat money differently based on its source. Profits are often seen as less valuable than initial capital.
Overconfidence : After a winning streak, traders may become overconfident in their abilities, leading to riskier trades.
Loss Aversion : Gains are perceived as a buffer, reducing the fear of losses and encouraging riskier behavior.
Example of the House Money Effect on Crypto
In the 2021 Crypto Bull Market, we saw Bitcoin soar to all time highs. This subsequently caused many altcoins to rally really hard resulting in some 100-500x and numerous 2-3x tokens. If you observed at what point in the timeline this happened, this happened towards the end of the bull run, when everyone already knew about crypto and everybody was seemingly getting rich by buying cryptocurrencies. This was the peak of retail activity, which includes newcomers as well as those who got rich from holding tokens earlier.
This is a perfect example of the phenomenon with several key characteristics
Was after a period of extreme gains
Was causing risk assets to outperform, suggesting a higher risk tolerance in the market
Immediately after the markets tanked, clearly indicating this was a massive retail loss
By understanding and spotting the House Money Effect, traders can better manage their emotions and make more rational trading decisions. Recognizing this bias is the first step toward mitigating its impact and maintaining a disciplined trading strategy. We hope you enjoyed reading this idea.
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 24, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to rise for the third consecutive session on Wednesday, likely due to the return of risk-off-oriented flows. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates at next week's policy meeting, prompting short sellers to exit their positions and lending support to the Japanese Yen.
A senior ruling party official, Toshimitsu Motegi, called on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to more clearly outline its plan to normalize monetary policy by gradually raising interest rates, according to Reuters. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida added that normalizing the central bank's monetary policy will facilitate Japan's transition to a growth-oriented economy.
The U.S. dollar (USD) is facing challenges due to rising expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September, putting pressure on the USD/JPY pair. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting is 93.6%, up from 88.5% a day earlier.
Traders await the release of U.S. purchasing managers' index (PMI) data on Wednesday and annualized gross domestic product (GDP) (Q2) on Thursday. The data is expected to provide new insights into the US economic situation.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 23, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD fluctuated just below 1.09000 on Monday as the new trading week started on a rather weak note. There will be little meaningful data in the first half of the trading week, so traders will have to be on the lookout for key Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Wednesday in both the EU and the US.
Things will remain roughly flat on Monday and Tuesday, with markets looking ahead to the start of the week's calendar of meaningful economic data on Wednesday. Tuesday will see the release of average US existing home sales data for June. EUR/USD traders will focus on Wednesday's double block of purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. The EU Manufacturing and Services PMI for July is expected to rise slightly, while the Services PMI for the month is expected to come in at 53.0, up from 52.8 in the previous month.
On Wednesday, the US will release its own PMI data. Forecast models predict that the July US Services PMI will fall to 54.4 from the previous reading of 55.3. Thursday will continue the trend of important data releases from the U.S., particularly the second quarter 2024 annualized gross domestic product (GDP). The trading week will end on Friday with the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which will provide key US inflation data.
Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.09000. If consolidate above it, take Buy positions, on the rebound take Sell positions.
Summary of Bullish Outlook for (WTI) OilSeveral factors are contributing to a bullish outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices in the near future:
1. **Rising Global Demand**: As major economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, industrial and transportation activities are increasing, particularly in Asia with significant contributions from China and India.
2. **Production Cuts**: OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) continue to implement production cuts to stabilize and boost oil prices, preventing significant declines.
3. **Declining Oil Inventories**: Recent reports show a notable decrease in oil inventories in the United States and other countries, indicating higher consumption and demand in the market.
4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Instability in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and North Africa can lead to supply concerns and price increases.
5. **Investment in Alternative Energies**: While the long-term shift to renewable energy sources may reduce oil demand, short-term transitions and policy changes can cause price volatility and increases.
### Conclusion
Given these factors, the outlook for WTI oil prices is bullish. Investors and analysts should closely monitor these dynamics to make informed decisions in the oil market.
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 22, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) remains weak on Monday, extending its losing streak to a third straight session. Traders are preparing for next week's Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, which may consider an interest rate hike to support the yen. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said normalizing the central bank's monetary policy will help Japan's transition to a growth-oriented economy, according to Nikkei Asia.
Speculative short yen positions, which had risen to their second-highest level, began to shrink after Japan's anticipated yen buying intervention this month surprised the market. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, yen short positions held by market participants such as hedge funds totaled 151,072 contracts as of Tuesday. This represents a decline of 30,961 contracts from the previous week and is the biggest decline since May 7, when short positions declined by 33,466 contracts, according to another report from Nikkei Asia.
The USD/JPY pair may limit its gains as the U.S. dollar (USD) faces challenges from rising bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September and lingering concerns about the volatility of the U.S. labor market. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting is 91.7%, up from 90.3% a week earlier.
Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 157.500, and on the rebound we take Sell positions.
GBP / USD SELL LIMIT Hi traders, GBP / USD is looking like we are in for a reversal from supply area, my weekly fundamentals are lining up nicely.
Entry 1.30726
Sl 1.31762
Tp 1.23691
This chart material is for educational purposes only / Demo account should be traded only.
Feel free to like comment and follow
Gold Spot / US DollarHey traders on GOLD we can see that we are approaching supply area, my weekly fundamentals are telling me that we could potentially have a reversal from this area.
Entry 2,414.000
SL 2,458.232
TP 2,175.000
This chart material is for educational purposes only / Demo account should be traded only
Sei Network, $SEI Daily Chart of Sei/TetherUS*Chart shown above is Sei's historical price chart and past events embedded, including max ROI and distance from ATH.
#1 – Sei Network, TSXV:SEI - Weekly Chart of Near Protocol/TetherUS
❔ Overview
*Sei is a general-purpose, open-source Layer 1 blockchain specialized for the exchange of digital assets. Sei is one of the fastest blockchains in the industry, leveraging a novel consensus and technical breakthroughs.
Rank: #76
MarketCap: $1.25B
Sector: DEX, Layer 1, NFT
Network Compatibility: Cosmos and Sei
Top Markets - Binance and WhiteBIT
Year Founded: 2022
❓ ICO Details
•First ICO conducted last August 31, 2020, raising $45M
•Seed Sale price of 1 SEI = 0.005 USD
•Returns since first ICO: 79x
•Average ATH of $1.14 with max ROI of 228x, currently 66% from the ATH
Competitor: EURONEXT:ALGO at $1.30B
Major Competitor: CRYPTOCAP:ETH at $421B
Check them out!
Website - www.sei.io
Linktree - linktr.ee
(Nothing is FA and post is purely informational.)
Sharing this post is highly appreciated. 🫡
Safe trades! 👌
📮 July 21, 2024
xauusdall time high once again created 2484, but market crashed and closed below our previous high, and continue fall yesterday. we got strong demand on 2478/2480, look at that area as shown on chart, market can bounce up to retest to supply zone. i am looking for a long from the area.
let me know what you all think. leave a comment.
Sell EUR/CAD Channel BreakoutThe EUR/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.4932, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.4880
2nd Support – 1.4853
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.4965. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you
AUDCAD Bearish MomentumAUDCAD just broke the trendline now in a phase where possibilities are retest of trendline. High Probability that the uptrend will change in to Down trend.
