Unlocking Profits: 57.47% Probability of AUDJPY Hitting TPAUDJPY Bullish Outlook:
Riding the Wave of Economic Shifts
The Australian Dollar to Japanese Yen (AUDJPY) pair is showing promising signs for bullish momentum. Several key fundamentals are aligning to support this outlook:
Global Economic Recovery
As the world continues to rebound from recent economic challenges, risk-on sentiment is growing. This typically favors the Australian Dollar, known for its correlation with global growth and commodity prices.
Interest Rate Differentials
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been maintaining a more hawkish stance compared to the Bank of Japan (BOJ). This interest rate differential makes the AUD more attractive to yield-seeking investors.
Commodity Demand
Australia's resource-driven economy is benefiting from increased global demand for commodities, particularly from China's economic resurgence.
To capitalize on this bullish bias, I'll be employing a probability-based approach to enter long positions. By carefully analyzing market structures and key levels, I've identified entry points that offer favorable risk-reward ratios.
My analysis suggests a 57.47% probability of reaching the take-profit level on 1H timeframe.
As always, stay tuned for updates as I monitor this AUDJPY trade idea and adjust my strategy based on evolving market conditions.
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Fractal
The Bullish Case for Cardano: A Strategy to Maximize Your GainsMarket Recovery
The overall crypto market is bouncing back, with ADA recently seeing a nice price increase of over 4%. This shows that investors are gaining confidence.
Key Price Levels
ADA is approaching the important $0.70 mark, and many traders are watching for it to break through to $1. This could signal further gains.
Exciting Developments
Cardano has made some exciting upgrades, like the Hydra scaling solution, which makes the network faster and more efficient. This could attract more users and boost its value.
Trading Strategy
As always I plan to use a probability-based approach to enter long positions. This means I’ll look for the best entry points while managing risk effectively based on X1X2 strategy and its indicators.
Take a look at these analyses to see the details behind this trade idea.
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S&P 500: New ATH? 59% Chance!Economic Resilience: The U.S. economy continues to show strength, with robust job growth and consumer spending supporting overall market performance.
Technological Advancements: Ongoing innovations in AI and other tech sectors are driving productivity gains and creating new growth opportunities for many S&P 500 companies.
Corporate Earnings: Many companies are reporting better-than-expected earnings, indicating strong business performance and potential for further market gains.
Global Recovery: As international markets stabilize, U.S. multinationals within the S&P 500 are benefiting from increased global demand and improved supply chains.
Monetary Policy: While the Federal Reserve remains vigilant, there are indications that the interest rate hiking cycle may be nearing its end, potentially providing a more favorable environment for equities.
Using the X1X2 strategy, I'll be looking for optimal entry points for long positions.
Let's dive into the comprehensive top-down analysis together.
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Please feel free to share your thoughts and suggestions!
Bitcoin Bearish Fractal Jun 2014The most unwanted outcome for Bitcoin's price action in the next few weeks would be similar to what happened in June 2014. The price managed to get back above the 200-day SMA twice, but eventually fell below it again, starting a bear market in 2014. I’ll be closely monitoring the 200-day SMA line in the coming weeks. Bitcoin should not close below it again!
Bitcoin Bearish Fractal Dec 2019The current 6-month consolidation of Bitcoin's chart looks similar to the one in December 2019. The price closed above the 200-day SMA twice, then fell back below it. Bitcoin should not close below the 200-day SMA again in the next few weeks to invalidate this fractal. If it does, then I will be very bearish.
4-Sep-24Yesterday's forecast has been accurate so far, but recent price action has been more drawn out than expected, so I'm now looking for a bullish relief bounce to the local supply zone before dropping lower.
See related ideas for more detailed TA
dashed lines = stop losses
dotted lines = entries/exits
blue line = fib retracement (placed at dashed line)
yellow lines = fib channel
Fractal Proximity and MA Confirmation + Partial Exit StrategyFractal Analysis
Fractals in trading help identify potential reversal points by marking significant price changes. Our strategy calculates a "fractal value" by comparing the current price to recent high and low fractal points. This is done by evaluating the sum of distances from the current closing price to the recent highs and lows. A positive fractal value suggests proximity to recent lows, hinting at upward momentum. Conversely, a negative value indicates closeness to recent highs, signaling potential downward movement.
Moving Averages for Confirmation
We use a series of 20 moving averages ranging from 5 to 100 to confirm trend directions indicated by fractal analysis. An entry signal is considered bullish when shorter-term moving averages are all above a long-term moving average, aligning with a positive fractal value.
Exit Strategy
The strategy employs dynamic stop-loss levels set at various moving averages, allowing for partial exits when the price crosses below specific thresholds. This helps manage the trade by locking in profits gradually. A full exit might be triggered by strong reversal signals suggested by both fractal values and moving average trends.
This open-source strategy is available for the community to test, adapt, and utilize. Your feedback and modifications are welcome as we refine the approach based on collective user experiences.
BTC - Hourly Bullish With Order Flow Structure Shifting...Hey traders,
As one can see, the OFA script has fired a circle pattern.
This makes us build the thesis to look for long positions in lower timeframes.
Even of the 1h timeframe, as shown in the chart, the structure has shifted to bullish.
We can personally conclude that until proven otherwise, the hourly should continue higher.
The aggregation of flows via the OFA script helps us visualize the dynamic waves forming to get more precise triggers in these lower timeframes.
Remember the two key main features of the OFA script:
Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude?
Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
3-Sep-24Yesterday's forecast has been accurate so far, but I now expect the market to seek liquidity below 56K.
The point of control (solid red line) in the volume histogram of the blue shaded period aligns with the expected bounce, which was informed by the yellow fractal placed in line with the yellow fib channel.
dashed lines = stop losses
dotted lines = entries/exits
blue line = fib retracement (placed at dashed line)
yellow lines = fib channel
see linked idea for more.
The KING OF BULLS waits to be called to start the BULL RALLYDespite being volatile, BULL SIGNALS don't appear just for show but with the same false breakout rocket signal candlestick.
False breakout rocket signal means BITCOIN is making a pretense downtrend of 5 candlesticks then the BULL GAMES begin.
This is now accompanied by an algorithm BULL TRIANGLE
The added curve means we may face a dip or remain within the price range as it has been confirmed by the false breakout downtrend or could the KING OF BULLS change the SHOW?
My KRISS-CROSS MA's with VOLUME has unveiled a little more wait before the PRIMETIME launch.
DOGE FRACTAL : Don't Lose Hope! BEST YET TO COME DOGE has been trading undeniably bearish over the past few weeks, as we see significant signs of bearish price action:
- 📉 lower highs
- 📉 lower lows
However, if we take a look at a fractal that played out between Dec 2023 - Feb 2024, there is definitely a chance for a PARBOLIC PUMP. Watch this short video to find out how (there are TWO SIGNS we need to see on the chart BEFORE we can seriously consider this).
Make sure you catch my update on Bitcoin, because ultimately BTC determines the direction of the market. Therefore it's vital to watch the trendsetter!
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BINANCE:DOGEUSDT
Bitcoin Bullish Fractal May 2016The most bullish scenario for Bitcoin can be compared to the price action in May 2016. After completing its 5-month correction, the price returned to retest the ATH a few times, forming a VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern), and then shot up in the following days. Let’s see how strong it will be.
Bitcoin Bullish Scenario Nov 2016Since Bitcoin has been showing strength in the last few weeks, let's look at a possible scenario similar to the price action in November 2016. This suggests that Bitcoin's volatility will slow down and the price will gradually rise in the next few weeks. However, if Bitcoin falls back below the 200-day SMA, this idea will be invalidated.
Range Sqeeze 1-Sep-24The start of the month has landed on a Sunday, which when combined with the low liquidity of a Sunday suggests potential volatility.
We have also been ranging near a big even ($60K), so we can expect many stop losses to be placed there, making it a target for liquidity hunting. The same can be said for the triple bottom at around $58K
The full oscillation shown here isn't necessarily likely, but it should be anticipated since it would provide an excellent opportunity without additional risk when compared to only trading the high and low.
Possible forecast for BTC (Long-Term Movement)Just simply using fractals of BTC's own movements to map out what looks like a good chance of happening over the next 6 years. Crash in 2030 allowing for a new cycle of investors to jump in? Teasing between 87K and 13K allowing for high volatility and short/long sweeps. Provides room and time for the web3 and alt-coin market to gain momentum, usage, and volume. We will see!
*NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE | FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY
The market is impossible to predict. Anything can happen in the next 5 - 6 years. This is the most level-headed and realistic forecast IMO.
What do y'all think? :)
Comment your thoughts!