Get started

Fomo

DOGE/USDT FOMO WarningAs most of you all have seen, DOGE has seen some crazy gains today and yesterday. I did predict some kind of gains earlier, but not to this extent! This post serves as a warning for crypto investors: you missed the boat, move along. More opportunities will follow. Today's increase has been marked mostly by investors buying with large amounts of leverage, it will bite you in the back if you're trying to do the same now. Most of DOGE's steep daily gains over the last few years have been a maximum of two to three days, followed by steep sell-offs. Learn from the past!
Short
by FieryTrading
3
Investment advice and portfolio revealProbably I’ll post this text several times (under each ticker) that I mention below, as the meaning of the writing necessitate it. Introduction and the mindset: 8-10% of my wealth is in the US stock market, other almost 90% in real estate in Europe. As for the stocks, you got to have a diversified portfolio in my opinion. As my experience tells me you can be lucky sometimes and you also gonna be unlucky at any given time (and unexpected all the time). So one can not count on luck and/or feelings (I call it being on Hope-ium). This is the reason for the need of diversification, especially in this unprecedented (word of 2020, right?) environment. Lots of analysts say the market is overvalued, stock prices are overstretched (the SPY and tech at least). I think this is partially true and it does matter sometimes, it does not matter too much other times and/or instances as you’ll see soon below. OK, too much talk already, I will show you my portfolio and talk about my ideas with numbers, entry points, targets and even risks. My past fundamental ideas (as for reputation, not a bluffer): In 2019 I only had 2 ideas, both based on my fundamental analysis and they were for investment (so, not for short term trade ideas). Tesla and Bitcoin. For TSLA my entry plan and buying advice was @ $426 in December (pre-split price, so if you are new, divide it by 5). For BTC I stated that I recon we have to wait for the beginning of 2020 (according to my plan it was most likely for about February) and buy the expected dip - according to my readings - at $5500. Of course Covid came and things got crazy, but we didn’t expect that. Lots of losses and learning, but here I share some useful thoughts and ideas. I learned technical analysis, but these fundamental ideas born according to my own research, also wanna add, I didn’t know any known influencer back then. My recent/actual ideas and how to do it: I divide my stock portfolio for 5 sectors in a way that if even 3 or 4 of them fails, the other 1 or 2 will pay out so much, I wouldn’t mind and never lose. My sectors watched: 1.REIT (they will pay dividends) 2.Energy (they will recover) 3.Commodities (we need them whatever happens) 4.Biotech (necessity too) 5.Insurance (self explanatory). The SPY is driven by tech, so I left it out for now (with a small exception), as no need to risk now, because tech is a bit overstretched at the moment and even if it’s going way higher, my ideas will too. But if tech is not going higher, I will still make profits (hence the so called ‘K-shape recovery’). Not easy to do this in such overvalued levels but not everything is expensive and also note, that not every cheap stock is going to die off, so the main buying habit of mine is what George Gammon likes also: “I buy a dollar for fifty cents” if I may quote him here. This idea means that I buy according to the actual (and my own) valuation, plus the current stock price of the company and not according to the momentum or the horde, in other words the ‘best performers’ according to popular Youtubers, similar influencers (or the mainstream media for that matter), as history shows that the majority loses and the minority wins (at least during those crazy unprecedented times like now when soon everyone is in the stock market examples I analysed: 1929, 2000, 2008). Doesn’t that tell you that it would be wiser to be on the side of Michael Burry during the 2008 stock market rally instead of everyone else? Yeah, I know, it’s not easy and also, “this time will be different” :D But jokes aside, I believe at least in a way this time it actually could be different, the task is to understand fundamentals, think a lot and make smart decisions based on your own research. And the more you read and think, the closer you might get to some advantage and solution that will pay off highly likely in every possible scenario in the future. Why and how? A simple enough hint of mine for example is, if a stock is a ‘top performer’ that fact might actually mean it already did what we expected from it to do (otherwise why the term?), so you kind of could already be late, but you would never know. This is when FOMO comes in to play, beware! Sure, you can be lucky and participate in a bubble just like how it was with Yahoo in 1999-2000 but only afterwards (years later) could you for sure realize that it wasn’t a good idea to buy in around 1999 as you didn’t sell at the top (2nd of January, 2000) did you? Even though the “long term fundamentals” that they talked about back then, they all turned out to be 100% true, because tech went higher for sure, Apple is still a winning company, we are surrounded with computers, smartphones and it's all tech and internet and websites, we still use yahoo mail every day and listen to yahoo finance and so on. Tech is cool and king. Still, the dot com bubble was bad and painful for the majority. See, everyone was right except for the ones who bought in at the high prices because of FOMO. As you see now, those ‘top performers’ worked very well for those who bought in at the bottom or even half way to the top for swing trades (but that was just before you heard about them and not really any time later). So, the problem is that no one ever knows when is the top of a bubble or any kind of run up that is driven by sentiment if it’s not a slow and steady growth corresponding both the fundamentals and financials in other words the real growth of a company. So the solution is to better find one that is trusted and/or have future and not going bankrupt soon and is beaten down to the ground. That’s when you buy in. Warren teaches this too, but this is my own thinking and just a coincidence that the old man says it too. So, I reveal here all my stocks and investment picks that I either bought and/or had planned or advised to buy so far with my first entry prices during 2020 (not placed in order of any sort, but just random). The majority is investment for 3-5 years the exceptions are the swing trades (I mark them “swing trade” as they are not investments): TSLA again @ $358 (pre split); NYMT @ $1; IVR anywhere below $4; NIO anywhere below $5 (swing trade); HEXO @ $0.74 (pre split); ASTC @ $1.82 (swing trade); CDEV @ $1; LMND @ $47; TXMD @ $1.2; LXRX @ 1.93; GNW @ $3.26 (swing trade); WPG @ $1 (pre split); CRSP @ $60; gold below $1700; AAL @ $10 (swing trade); AMC @ $2.84 (swing trade); BTC @ $5500 for investment (and was swing trade too, from $7000 to $9000 because I had to pay property tax and did it from the profit).
AMEX:SPYLong
by janfoux
1
What is the FOMO limit?It is very difficult to precisely forecast the BTC potential growth limit, but we will tell our opinion, based on some interesting notification. Let's assume, that the 2017 year scenario will repeat. We had a base level (fundamental price) approximately $3800 for 2017. The huge growth phase lasted almost 70 days. Nowadays, if we look at this pattern, apply to the price chart, we will see the new base level is $10500. The potential target level is $25500. But it can be higher, if we calculate the new bubble highest high according to percent growth. We need to wait the ATH level breakout, to make the new predictions.
by Skyrexio
2
BITCOIN in Extreme FOMO Territory - A WarningOn the weekly chart, Bitcoin currently has a RSI value of almost 83 points. The last time this happened was during the great bull-run of late 2018, with a 70% loss of value from the top in the next two months. Although the RSI is not a perfect indicator for predicting reversals. However, it's useful in warning traders when a certain asset is being overbought i.e. FOMO. The higher the time frame, the better the predicting value of the RSI becomes. Bitcoin is currently residing in extreme FOMO territory. Fear Of Missing Out could lead to extreme profits if you're early, but most of the time, most of the traders are too late and will eventually get burned by either buying at the top or by not taking profits. This post indicates as a warning for traders to be aware that the price is this high because people are afraid to miss the train, not because Bitcoin is actually as valuable as it might seem. In an earlier post I made the comment that Bitcoin might hit $2000 soon, which still stands. If we see another week like we just had, we will definitely get there. What will happen after the $2000 mark, no one knows.
by FieryTrading
1
12,000 BY SEPTEMBER 3RD (bullish pennant) - 2 validation ticks Good evening -Yurlo (Please smash that like button) 👍 2 hours and 30 minutes until today's daily close (8PM est) Expecting scam wicks/pumps over the weekend, CME gap will be opening and closing this weekend (always good to factor in with price action) This is the 6 hour chart - & an inside look on my last technical analysis post (the monthly chart - which can take a few weeks to start trending) Remember - stick to your trading plan, be smart about your trades, be consistent, be disciplined and most of all have fun! Cheers.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Yurlo
5
(AOI #3 RETEST) - UPTREND INVALIDATED - 11250 - 11400 INCOMING?I'd expect to see (AOI #3) before finding a REAL floor, or even (AOI #2). It depends on how price action reacts below 11500. Bulls need to impulse up or we're going down to goblin town for a visit. Goblins need loving too, plus it gives you the perfect "BUY THE DIP" opportunity. Always be ready & stay patient waiting for those big moves. Don't force the market, this will enable your mind to force positions which will force your account to be liquidated. Let the market come to you, and wait for the signals your TA provides. A NEW WEEK IS UPON US, BE READY FOR BOTH SIDES. (earlier this week we might find a bottom followed by later in the week pushing past these levels if we do reject. FOMO is real and very very dangerous, the market has cycles and you won't miss out. There will ALWAYS be another opportunity somewhere and you need to understand this. STICK TO YOUR TA. I love you all.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Yurlo
4
August 22 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Minimal Excess; Non-Separation Of Value; Untested POCs; Gaps Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended the week mixed with the S&P 500 recovering its all-time high on relative strength from the technology sector. Recapping last week’s action, Monday’s higher open on earnings and stimulus talks was followed by a balanced, low-volume session which migrated value to the top of prior balance. The market caught up to Monday’s delta, edging higher overnight on better than expected retail earnings, before liquidating, making a V-shape recovery, and resolving some resting liquidity at and above the $3,390 area. On Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve signaled signs of a difficult recovery, the market left value behind on a spike which repaired some weak structure in the $3,350 region. Responsive buyers quashed Wednesday’s weak-handed initiative activity, driving prices higher into Friday’s monthly options expiration, albeit with minimal participation from the broader market. Overall, the week ended in balance, again. In light of dull participation and poor structure on both sides of the market, attention has to be shifted to other stimuli, such as the cessation of trend in heavily weighted index constituents and decreased dealer hedging flows, among other things. If momentum was to grow faint, there’s the potential for a fast-moving correction of the poor structure left behind by the recent anxiety-driven activity. Still, the path of least resistance is up. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Key Events: GDP Estimate; Initial Claims; Consumer Spending; Core PCE Price Index; University Of Michigan Sentiment; Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; New Home Sales; Jackson Hole. Fundamental: Trading improves as China leads upswing; virus resurgence may delay negotiations. bit.ly Urban markets will recover after pandemic as Americans’ housing decisions evolve. bit.ly The ECB has signaled September to be a key month to read the economic recovery. bloom.bg China: Virus under control, V-shape recovery and strong demand, politics to worsen. bit.ly Majority of fund managers pulled out of LQD even after the Fed announced support. bloom.bg AMEX:LQD COVID-19 coronavirus drop in fuel demand to weaken credit metrics through 2022. bit.ly Fearing shipping crunch, retailers have initiated the earliest-ever holiday sales plans. reut.rs AMEX:XLY Despite recovery, economists suggest an unemployment tsunami maybe coming. bit.ly The peak leisure travel season is ending, and so might airlines’ modest recovery. bit.ly AMEX:JETS American Airlines Group (NYSE: AAL) attracts shorts on suspension of flights. bit.ly Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC) resumed job cuts, in-line with cost-cutting plans. reut.rs Deere & Co (NYSE: DE) shares hit ATH after company lifted its full-year forecast. reut.rs 3 new U.S. stock exchanges are set to launch by the end of this September. reut.rs Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) weighs the kill switch for political ads after elections. reut.rs Canada June retail sales rose by a record 23.7%, rising above pre-pandemic levels. reut.rs Investor concern over Democratic win and tax increases valid, but overdone. mgstn.ly Eurozone money supply surge will not spark inflation in the near term. bit.ly U.S. dollar loses value and influence as debt rises, tax consequences uncertain. bit.ly TVC:DXY Stimulus has largely been offset by a decrease in the volume of transactions. bit.ly As homebuilder confidence matches record high, mortgage delinquencies rise. refini.tv Rising value of gold is evidence that the U.S. could be debasing its currency. bit.ly Detailed analysis on global venture funding during the coronavirus pandemic. bit.ly Asset managers at major U.S. investment firms encourage stock buying. bit.ly Workers win on Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE: UBER), Lyft Inc (NASDAQ: LYFT). reut.rs Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to test coronavirus vaccine in 60,000 volunteers. reut.rs Delay in fiscal support is negative for the US economy and consumer facing sectors. bit.ly Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) hit sales record on the online shopping surge. reut.rs Market rally has more to do with asset inflation, which is fueled by liquidity support. bit.ly Corporations will assume the burden of safety, rising costs and lowering capacity. bit.ly People ready to start their household growing again, builders are playing catch up. bloom.bg General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) bets on electric Cadillacs, micro vans. reut.rs Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE: LUV) expects slower cash burn as bookings improve. reut.rs Fed policymakers see more easing ahead to help brace economy, sustain recovery. reut.rs OPEC+ pressed oil nations pumping above targets to cut more in August-September. reut.rs Lowe’s Companies Inc (NYSE: LOW) beats sales expectations on spending surge. reut.rs NY Fed’s index of real-time economic data showed a significant rise in its first revision. bit.ly Inflation is happening in the basket of goods that excludes food, fuel and housing. bloom.bg Analysis confirms the picture of rising income inequality and slowing income growth. brook.gs Sentiment: 30.4% Bullish, 27.2% Neutral, 42.4% Bearish as of 8/19/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 3,109,556,133 as of 8/21/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 42% as of 8/21/2020. bit.ly Product Snapshot: S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY SPCFD:SPX Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX TVC:GOLD Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USO TVC:USOIL Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
Psychology of OTHER People in the Market Matters More Than YoursMorning Traders - The next in our series of education posts is going to focus solely on Psychology. specifically regarding the psychology of OTHER people in the market. Once you nail this topic its going to give you a huge edge on the market. Any trader is always looking whether the next few price swings are going to be bullish or are they going to be bearish? That is the essence of trading - If you know the next few price swings are going to be bullish then it makes it easy to make money right?! Once you have this identified then you simply just need to time your entry, the safest way to do that would be to be watching for a short term pullback against your bias of where the price swings will be headed. Its important that when looking at these price swings, you watch HOW the price moves, don't need to concern yourself with any chart patterns or candlesticks, but ask yourself as you watch the price move, is the price moving with strength or weakness? If price is pulling back from your bias with weakness then this is an opportunity to place your entries and wait for the price swings you have anticipated. If price pulls bask with strength then it could be time to consider you bias again and stay on the sidelines. The real key when analysing price action both in the long term price swings you see and in each movement within those price swings is the psychology of everybody else that is trading in that market with you. Much has been written and spoken about regarding making sure you own mindset and psychology is right within trading but I personally feel understanding how other people are feeling within the market is worth so much more. Once you understand how other people are feeling, their emotions etc then its becomes easier you predict their actions. One of the most powerful emotions we feel that affects our decision making is fear. Im sure everyone can easily anticipate the actions of a fearful person, so we just need to translate that into the chart. So start watching where are people getting trapped into bad positions? When are they feeling fearful that they made the wrong trade? When are they praying for the market to turn around? These are the traders you want to target because by their nature these are weak traders and likely unprofitable ones, you want to watch for points in the market where these traders know they have got it wrong.. So you should be looking to take the other side of their trades and profit from their mistakes. The other major aspect of fear you should look for in markets is FOMO. Fear of Missing Out. You see this type of emotion ALL the time in markets, its essentially the market equivalent as when you see people run for the tube / underground as the warning beeps have started and doors are closing... People who have been sat watching the market for a while suddenly see it moving in one direction and start running to enter the trade as quickly as they can... the psychology of this is that they will likely enter with the wrong position size, they haven't analysed the new market conditions that were different from when they were watching the market before, and most importantly their risk management has now gotten out of control. When you see after an already strong price movement that it starts to slow down momentarily and then rockets again in the same original direction - This is typical of FOMO trading. Its wise when you see this to start thinking about places some trades opposite to these traders. So when people say you should analyse price action - this is the most powerful way to do that. Its not about head and shoulders patterns, its not about doji candles or anything else you hear spoken about... Its simply about human emotions and how they are expressed within the charts. To be successful you need to start identifying the moments and points in the chart where you know people will buy after you have already brought, or where they will sell after you have already sold.
Education
by JoelWarby
Best Way to Trade a Bull Stock MarketStocks are flirting with ATH's in a complete departure from a reality where unemployment is right around where it was in the great depression. Praise be to the Fed and their magic papers. The Kovach OBV is confirming the bull trend. We are seeing some red triangles in the Kovach Reversals indicator, confirming resistance, however. The fact that the S&P should break out from these levels is undeniable, but the question is if we will see a retracement first. We would prefer to error on the side of caution and not honey badger our way into a trade. Keep your eye on 3396 and 3390 for a rejection or breakout. The level 3357 would be a good place to buy back if it retraces.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1st attempt (rejection) 2nd attempt (ranging) 3rd attempt (moon)Good afternoon -Yurlo (smash that like button if you enjoy the charts I post daily for you guys) 👍 Here's the analysis for the day. Not much has changed from yesterday (ranging between (11600 - 12000) - The range has been getting tighter in favour of bulls over the weekend (going into weekly close) Today could moon very hard and i wouldn't want to miss out considering we've only tease a teaser of what the next bull run will feel like. Get ready for some wild times boys, it's close. Enjoy your day. (daily close in just over 5 hours) Once we break 12.1k we're going straight to 12.5k. Should be a GOOD FUCKING WEEK AHEAD.
GEMINI:BTCUSDLong
by Yurlo
6
WARNING TO GOLD PERMABULLS!Yep - I missed the parabolic pump and I'm sooo happy! There could be trouble ahead. Gamblers late in the game go right ahead! Those gamblers who made their killing could be getting out. You never know. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, or miss opportunity, kindly sue yourself.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Captain_Walker
20
Fast Market Moves And FOMO - Don't Get TrappedWhen the market moves strongly in a direction, you might feel the need to jump in and chase the trade because of the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO). Don't do that. In fact, if you spend some time looking at the charts, you will find that often with such sharp fast market moves, the potential for a trade in the same direction as the fast move is over by the time people start reacting out of fear of missing out. This is when trades get squeezed and people lose money fast. When you listen to experienced traders talk about such fast moves, you will often hear comments like "Wow, XYZ has rocketed up, but it's too late to enter now, I'll rather wait for a good pull back and see if there is an opportunity to enter later". You might actually hear them say that the move has gone too far from the moving average (maybe the 9 EMA or even 20 EMA) and that it's more likely that it will cause a "rubber band" effect with the price action moving back closer to the average. The market may continue to rocket up or down, but let it go, don't chase that move, wait for your turn to get a good entry spot. This is true no matter what you trade, Forex, Crypto, Stocks or Commodities, they all exhibit this tendency to recover (often quickly) when the price has suddenly moved too far from the average price. New traders are often caught off-guard by this, and tend to jump into the trade exactly when others are exiting their positions, so don't give in to FOMO. The market will give you many trading opportunities during the day, be patient and don't trade out of fear or greed.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by EasyTradingSignals