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FOMC

AUD/USD extends gains, RBA minutes next The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Monday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6553, up 0.59%. The Aussie is flexing its muscles, gaining some 3% in the past week. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of the meeting earlier this month on Tuesday. There wasn't much of a surprise as the RBA raised rates by a quarter-point to 4.35%, but the Australian dollar dropped sharply in the aftermath, which is an unusual move after a rate hike. Investors jumped all over the language of the rate statement, which suggested that the bar had risen for an additional rate hike. Interestingly, the statement also warned that inflation was "too high" and the "risk of inflation remaining higher has increased", but investors ignored this hawkish assessment. The RBA minutes may provide more clarity on whether rates have peaked. The markets are betting that the tightening cycle is over, but if the minutes signal that rates could go up, the Australian dollar could get a boost. As for 2024, the markets are expecting a rate cut, but the RBA is still trying to convince the markets that rate hikes are on the table and it isn't discussing trimming rates. Just a month ago, 10-year US Treasuries were trading at 4.98%, but have fallen to 4.44% at present. The lower yields have made US Treasuries less attractive and the US dollar has fallen against the majors recently, including the Australian dollar. The FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday and the markets will be combing through, looking for hints about upcoming rate decisions. Despite the Fed insisting that rate hikes remain on the table, the markets are confident that Fed policy will be less restrictive in the first half of 2024. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 100% likelihood of a pause in December, with a 30% chance of a rate cut in March 2024, followed by a 64% chance in May. There is resistance at 0.6587 and at 0.6600 0.6470 and 0.6397 are providing support
by OANDA
USDJPY: Trendline breakout, wait for retestLooks like USDJPY has broken down through the rising trendline, there was a slight recovery at the backend of Friday, this indicates we could see a short retracement from here to test the trendline break, and then down. The Yen performed well at the start of Friday, I don't believe this was BoJ intervention, as they have said that they expect the fundamentals to play out - we'll see, bad data from JPY this week may necessitate intervention, however good data on Friday (PMI) will I think be enough to start the recovery process for the Yen. If Japan looks like it's going to have a soft landing then I think markets will reward the Yen with a more positive sentiment and this could mean we get a lot of good action for these crosses. I think the USD is done being bullish for now (even the hawkish speakers cannot convince the markets), so either way I think we'll see this pair fall, so monitoring LTF's for a suitable entry / rejection from the retest point. A break below 148.5 will see a more sustained move to the downside, imho.
Short
by Finchcliffe
USDJPY: Shorting NowNot sure if this is the big short or not yet, but looking at price action it's been a jog up to this point, rather than a sprint, this tells me we're fine to short until at least the ascending dynamic trendline that reversed the last short. We have an engulfing candle on the 1 hour, followed by a long-body doji, so I think we're going to see a push down. If we go below then that's my reversal sign for bigger lots. The problem is history tells us BoJ will intervene, this type of knowledge can force people to get in big too soon. Let's see what happens from here, SL above the last high.
Short
by Finchcliffe
GBPUSD: Wow, some move on Friday, needs to close FVG?That fundamentals last week had a serious impact on this pair. The FED held rates with a dovish tone, and then the cooling labour market data slammed the USD. The BoE also held rates, but with a hawkish tone. UK data is not great, USD real yields are stronger, and there are still global tensions which are normally strong for the dollar, that said, this pair has broken out of weekly descending path with some umph, so this could well be the start of a reversal. Normally in these cases we get a retracement first to fill the fair value gap, we're also at strong resistance so will I believe we have to fall back to attract more buyers. Overall I think we could be looking at a reversal so will be keenly watching the move down with tight SL but with an expected target around 1.221.
Short
by Finchcliffe
USDJPY: Still waiting for BoJ InterventionI don't believe the BoJ have gotten involved yet, or if they have it's going under the radar. I believe this pair has only slipped due to USD retracement following the NFP and softer labour market data last week. With retailers now net short I think that we'll see another push back up. We have broken my rising wedge line related idea, however unless we break below 1.487 then we're still in the uptrend. I now see it as unlikely we'll get to 154 and the BoJ intervention will surely come if necessary (it may not need to if USD keeps falling). Overall no confirmation of reversal so I'm long again when I et the LTF signal, but setting 151.65 as the target with tight SL (and will keep moving it up) as I don't want to get caught in a buy up here. Let's see what this week brings.
Long
by Finchcliffe
1970 -> Liquidity levels boosting Demand up Gold is now beginning to consolidate. For us, the 1999 level is significant because if this resistance level gets crossed, the market will actively keep rising until it reaches levels around $2070 ( Weekly Resistance). OANDA:XAUUSD will probably start determining what happens in the future. NFP damaged the TVC:DXY DXY dollar market, which could lead to a sharp increase in gold prices. There are a few significant news events that will be important keeping an eye on this upcoming week: 1. Powell's Addressing the First Round of Jobless Claims 2. GDP in YoY No major news or events should be expected unless the Geopolitical situation escalates. Remember that prices are determined based on: 1. Supply & demand 2. Geopolitical stability vs riskiness 3. Economic Data 4. Major Ecological disasters Wish you the best of luck.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Sal98
USD Index: Thoughts and Analysis pre-NFP Today's focus: USDX Pattern – Range /Distribution? Support – 105.50 - 106 Resistance – 106.75 - 107.05 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at the USDX on the daily chart. Today, we have run over the USDX as price continues to trade range-bound after a choppy week and mixed influences. The FOMC failed to boost the USD after rates remained on hold, and comments pushed it lower on fears we could contnue to see further holds. With this in mind, we have started to look at the possibility of distribution creeping in. Could we see a new move lower to test or break support? Could a miss in today's NFP data add to the USD woes and contnue to push seller momentum in the short term? Be wary; this could also be a consolidation, and if we did see a new move through resistance, this could set up a new bullish continuation and cancel out any ideas of distribution. US Employment data is due at 8:30 a.m. EST today. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USDXShort
by Eightcap
GBPUSD: Rejection from trendline, supported by fundamentals?As we can see price has is currently respecting the descending trendline again. I'm expecting the BoE to maintain their hike-pause stance, this result is already baked into the price... I'm placing a small trade on the basis that my expectations will be correct... If there's a pause or reduction (highly unlikely) I'm expecting a fall back to around 1.208 to continue the creation of the wedge, important not to be greedy here as I feel like we could break out of the wedge at anytime, so probably will be considering buys once this trade is closed and keep a close eye on PA in the LTF's. Let's see what the BoE do!
Short
by Finchcliffe
5
No such thing as a Hawkish pause? USD overrated? Has the market adopted the term “hawkish pause” to bolster USD bids? It could be possible that, in an attempt to drag out USD strength just a little bit longer (euro has weakened –4.20% in past 6 months), the term Hawkish Pause has been thrown around with not-enough criticism. Not many people have confidence in the US Fed to really make the hard decisions (transitory inflation anyone?), including being able to start up the rate hiking engine again (this year or next) after a few pauses. If they do, will they do it in a timely manner? Jerome Powell, this morning noted in his public address that the committee hasn’t discussed what it might plan for its December decision but dismissed the idea that it would be difficult to start hiking again (if the conditions in the market require such an action). There are two more inflation readings and two more labor market readings before the last decision of the year. Maybe investors have shrugged off the hawkish pause rhetoric this morning though. The Australian dollar is pumping, up 0.94% at last look, while the dollar has fallen more than half a percent against the yen. The euro is only up 0.16%.
by BlackBull_Markets
Should I do a FOMC strangle/ straddle play? Read here.So, what's the best way to play FOMC? Probably a strangle. According to last FOMC on 9/20 your NASDAQ:QQQ calls would have printed around +50% or more. Assuming you sold and held your puts, your puts would have given you an extra 200% to 300%. You can do this on any stock obviously. Don't get greedy. Best decision might be to stay out of course. Choosing a definite direction (i.e. holding calls/ puts only without a hedge) is pure gambling. Good luck. Welcome to follow for trade ideas. FOMC chart 9/20:
NASDAQ:QQQ
by kingdips
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCFOMC – KOG Report: This is our view for FOMC tomorrow, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We would suggest if you’re new to trading to stay away from the markets and come back tomorrow, once they have moved the price to where they want to. In Sundays KOG Report we said that if we saw price give indications of a down move we would trade it level to level on the way down targeting 1975 which is where we would want to see a reaction in price. Right now, as we stand, we’re not going to think about going long on price unless we hit the key levels below, where, if we see a clean set up an opportunity to long the market could be on the cards. Please note, we will only be following our target levels and trading this level to level due there being NFP on Friday as well. Illustrated on the chart is the path we’re looking for, if we don't get it we'll stay out. If they take it up during the release we’ll sit and wait for the higher resistance levels to hold before attempting the short trade. Levels to look out for: Support: 1960 / 1955 / 1950 for the tap and bounce Resistance: 1985 / 1990 / 1995 KOG’s bias of the day: Bearish below 1987 with targets below 1963 and below that 1955 Bullish on break of 1987 with targets above 2005 and above that 2015 Expect swings and spikes in either direction, especially during the press conference which is after the statement. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
6
BluetonaFX - GBPUSD Bear Pennant PatternHi Traders! GBPUSD is in a bear pennant pattern and is heading for the 4-week low at 1.20372 in anticipation of the FOMC press conference later today.   Price Action 📊 The market is currently in the bear pennant pattern and is showing bearish signals with lower highs and lower lows; additionally, there has been a break and a close under the 20 EMA. We are now looking for a momentum break to break and close below the support trendline to target the four-week low at 1.20372. Fundamental Analysis 📰 The US economy expanded at a 4.9% annual rate from July through September as Americans defied higher prices and rising interest rates. Economists have also said the US economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in nearly two years—more than twice the 2.1% annual rate of the previous quarter. The FOMC press conference is later today, so traders are eagerly waiting to hear what their statements are on the current US economic improvements. Support 📉 1.20943: TRENDLINE SUPPORT 1.20372: FOUR-WEEK LOW Resistance 📈 1.21836: 20 EMA 1.22008: PREVIOUS DAY'S HIGH Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital. Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
FOMC Preparation 1st November1st November 2023 DXY: consolidate along 106.70, above 106.90 FOMC decision push to 107.35 NZDUSD: Sell 0.5860 SL 20 TP 60 (dxy weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.63 SL 20 TP 60 (dxy strength) USDJPY: Buy 151.55 SL 20 TP 60 (watch out for possible intervention) GBPUSD: Sell 1.2130 SL 25 TP 60 (dxy strength) EURUSD: Sell 1.0545 SL 30 TP 90 (dxy strength) USDCHF: Sell 0.9075 SL 30 TP 70 (counter trend, dxy weakness) USDCAD: Buy 1.39 SL 35 TP 70 Gold: below 1972 could reach 1952 (dxy strength)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
Heavy Dollar news day tomorrowWhat an insane session for USDJPY! We know the ExMo is low due to the compression we've seen, but even compared to more normalised figure, what we've seen today has broken all expectations. There are two questions going forward. The most immediate is the Dollar news we have scheduled for Nov 1st. Those being ADP at 12:15pm London (due to daylight savings) followed by the Fed rate decision at 6pm. The second is whether or not the BoJ have any other tools to alleviate the Yen weakness other than simply intervening like we've seen before. Let's tackle the new first. I wouldn't expect ADP to cause much of a stir given the Fed decision always overshadows anything else, and if the Fed holds at 5.50%, then I wouldn't expect anything other than a small bump. Given the move we've seen today I think some form of relax to happen, possibly with a slight downward trajectory for profit taking....possibly we just slide a little lower into the end of the week? As for the BoJ, I'm nervous above 150. I'll take it a day at a time above here and be mindful of any macro factors that change the longer term outlook for either the Dollar or Yen. But it seems like the only mechanism Japan has to stop the devaluation is to inject a whole bunch of money into buying the Yen. Be careful out there and I'll see you tomorrow.
by RuckSack
2
EURUSD: Daily Price Action Suggests A Move UpLooking at this pair it's been trading in a descending dynamic channel since mid-July, it makes up nearly 58% of the DXY index and so is in close negative correlation to this index. We can see the on the daily a pinbar followed by a long-wick doji, which could mean reversal, the opposite can be seen in DXY: We can now see a breakout of the channel, and the pinbar was formed on the restest, and now the long wick doji. We have a lot of news this week affecting the Euro (Mon / Tues), and then the USD (Wed). Overall I think that the price action is determining a weaker dollar which means stronger crosses for the next short period of time, dollar needs a rest and has failed to form a new HH yet despite economic news that would normally entice the bulls. There will be volatility this week so being conservative with initial target, however depending on the news we could well see us back over 1.08 this month.
Long
by Finchcliffe
1
Gold climbs on global uncertaintyOvernight Gold approached the 3-month high of $1985, since June & July 2023. This was likely due to the - Fed chair Jerome Powell's comments which indicated that the rise in yields might lessen the need for additional rate increases. With the increasing probability of the US Federal Reserve keeping rates on hold at the November meeting, the DXY saw brief moves to the downside. - Continued escalation in geopolitical uncertainty, as troops are reportedly gathering at the Gaza border, suggesting an expected ground invasion, financial markets are seeing a strong move toward the reserve commodity. Do you think Gold will continue its climb higher to the key resistance of $2066?
OANDA:XAUUSD
by JinDao_Tai
GBP/USD flat as retail sales eyedThe British pound is drifting on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2142, almost unchanged. The UK inflation report on Wednesday was a stark reminder that inflation remains stubborn and sticky. The Bank of England has raised the benchmark rate to 5.25%, but headline inflation was steady at 6.7% y/y and the core rate ticked lower to 6.1%, down from 6.2%. Both readings were higher than expected disappointed investors sent the British pound lower on Wednesday. A key driver of headline inflation was rising motor fuel prices. The Israel-Hamas war has raised tensions throughout the Middle East and if there are disruptions in crude oil, inflation would likely rise due to higher motor fuel costs. The UK wraps up the week with retail sales on Friday. The markets are braced for a weak September with a market estimate of -0.2%, following a 0.4% gain in August. On an annualized basis, retail sales declined by 1.4% in August, but are expected to improve to -0.1% in September. In the US, unemployment claims for the week of October 14th sizzled at 198,000. This was lower than the previous week's release of 211,000 (revised) and lower than the consensus estimate of 212,000. The US labour market has been showing signs of softening as the Federal Reserve's rate hikes continue to filter through the economy and dampen economic growth. The markets are always interested in what Fed members have to say, hoping for some insights into Fed rate policy. A host of FOMC members will deliver remarks today, highlighted by a speech from Fed Chair Powell at an event in New York City. Today's lineup has added significance as the Fed will enter a blackout period ahead of the meeting on November 1st. The sharp rise in US Treasuries has led to some Fed members saying that inflation could fall without further hikes, and investors will be watching to see if that dovish message is repeated today by Powell and his colleagues. There is resistance at 1.2163 and 1.2202 1.2066 and 1.1987 and providing support
by fisherkj4