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USDJPY Trendline Break Re-TestHi Traders! USDJPY is on a pullback and re-testing the trendline break, which opens up opportunities for short entries on the market's pullbacks. Here are the details: The market recently broke both the support trendline and the descending channel. Our plan is to sell rallies by looking for an entry near the 20 EMA and a target exit near the monthly low. Preferred Direction: Sell Entry Level: 146.750 Stop Level: 148.598 Target Level: 142.862 Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
2
Post FOMC AnalysisDid the federal reserve just set the tone for 2024? - done with the rate hike regime - wait for a bit more evidence on inflation - switch rate cut policy With a decision in March/May still looking the most likely for now, are we going to see more downside on the DXY In the technical aspect - Price reversed from resistance of 104.30 - Currently resting along support of 102.50 which coincides with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level - Next major support level at 99.75, with interim support at 101
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
US FED FOMC Press Conference and it's impactUS FED Update: Fed leaves rates unchanged for third straight meeting which was on expected line (Little bit of relief for the anxious ones). (Neutral to Positive) Fed accepts that growth of economy "has slowed" since Q3 2023. (Neutral) Fed says they are committed to bring down inflation to 2%. (Neutral to Positive) Most Fed officials see interest rate cuts in 2024.(Positive) Median projection shows 3 rate cuts in 2024 (Positive). Overall it will give steroid dose to Global/Indian Markets.🚀🚀🚀. #FOMC #Powell
DJ:DJI
by Happy_Candles_Investment
🔥 Bitcoin Successfully Bounces: Bulls Kept StrongTwo days ago, just after the big liquidation which took us from 44.5k to 40.3k, I made a post where I argued that there were no worries for the bulls as long as the bottom support held. Around 40 minutes ago, there was another FOMC interest rate decision in favor of the bulls. Stock markets rallied and BTC followed suit. Crypto is rallying back towards previous highs. The key giveaway was the oversold RSI on the 4H timeframe. Last few times this happened we saw a swift recovery to new highs. As explained in previous analyses, 48k is still my target for this year, given that the bottom diagonal support will hold. Good job bulls.
Long
by FieryTrading
17
US Dollar: How to Trade the Fed’s Decision All the attention will be on the FOMC's final policy decision of the year today, with no expectations of further tightening. The market's pricing of 125 basis point rate cuts in 2024 will be tested, and given the Fed's cautious approach, there's a likelihood that Powell and the team will resist these expectations during today's meeting. Whether the market will trust the Fed's stance remains uncertain. I'm monitoring two contrasting trades based on the Fed's hawkishness: considering short positions on GBP/USD or USD/JPY. Key factors to watch in today's FOMC rate decision The rate decision itself is a foregone conclusion, but more important will be the FOMC staff projections, the dot plots, and Powell's press conference. The Fed believes current monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to its 2% target in the coming months, reducing the likelihood of strong hints about further tightening. Inflation data on Tuesday leaned slightly on the stronger side but in the right direction, while the job market is cooling, albeit resilient given the tight monetary policy. Against this backdrop, it's expected that FOMC officials will signal a few rate cuts in 2024 in the dot plots. But it could very well counter market expectations of a 125-basis point rate reduction. The historical tendency of Fed officials to be cautious and lag behind market pricing suggests a more measured approach should be expected. The FOMC's Q3 projections estimated interest rates reaching 5.1% in 2024, requiring two 25bp cuts next year. If the Fed adheres to this projection, it could trigger a hawkish surprise, potentially resulting in a sharp dollar rally. However, if their stance aligns more closely with market expectations, then the dollar's reaction is likely to be muted and it could even end up lower on the session. Additionally, changes in the Fed's inflation projections for 2024 will be of interest after signalilng a core PCE price index decline to 2.6% in September. More central bank rate decisions to follow on Thursday After the Fed's decision, attention will shift to major central bank meetings of Europe: the Bank of England, European Central Bank, and Swiss National Bank. While these banks are expected to maintain their policies, the BoE may adjust its tone due to soft economic indicators. The ECB, facing consistently weak economic data, might be expected to signal a rate cut next year, impacting the euro and DAX. So how to trade the FOMC rate decision? In trading the FOMC decision, it is essential to wait until at least the dot plots are releases. If the Fed turns out to be more hawkish than expected, then this could prompt a dollar rally. In this case, pairing the dollar against currencies with softer economic data or anticipating quicker dovish turns by their central banks, could be the way to go. The BoE and GBP come to mind. The GBP/USD has already shown signs of a possible bearish reversal around the 1.2600 resistance area, but so far key support around 1.2500 has held firm, where we also have the 200-day average. However, a stronger pushback on rate cuts could see the cable break below 1.25 handle. Conversely, if the Fed aligns with market expectations, a negative-dollar and positive-bond reaction will increase the appeal of long setups on gold, silver, and JPY trades (i.e. shorting USD/JPY or GBP/JPY). It's worth noting that the market's reduced expectation of a dovish Fed since Friday's jobs report could limit the upside potential for the dollar, even if the Fed is more hawkish than expected. The USD/JPY broke down sharply before bouncing back from around its 200-day average near 142.00-142.50 support area. However, the lower lows suggests the path of least resistance remains to the downside unless it manages to reclaim broken support at 147.30ish. Short-term resistance at 1.46.20ish has held firm so far. A break back below 145.00 could potentially trigger a sharp follow-up technical selling. Written by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCKOG REPORT – FOMC: This is our view for FOMC tomorrow, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. There is a huge possibility this FOMC is already priced in, so we may not see too much movement until the press conference which will be held 30mins after the release. We have a few levels in mind where we will be looking for a reaction in price, however, we would ideally like to wait until tomorrow to see where the daily closes before getting in. Otherwise, it will be a quick scalp on the retracement or pullback of the move. One thing we need to keep in mind is the NFP movement and where the began the sharp decline and left a void. The structure entails a move up at some point into that 2030-35 region which is the level to watch as well as a target level for any potential long trades. That’s what we will potentially be looking for, and IF we get there, we see a RIP, we’ll be looking to trade this back down for lower pricing. On the flip, if they take this down, we’re too low to attempt shorting it with the added risk of the void above, so we’ll be looking at the lower level for a RIP, a confirmed set up, and then look to carry the price upside into the order regions highlighted. Fortunately, we have our trusted guide (Excalibur) which we will be monitoring closely for activations in the given direction of our plans. Levels to watch: Support – 1978 / 1969 / 1952 Resistance – 1993 / 2006 / 2015 Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
NZD/USD slips ahead of GDP, Fed meetingThe New Zealand dollar is sharply lower in Wednesday trade. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6095, down 0.61%. US inflation ticked lower in October as expected and the release was a non-event for the markets, which slightly reduced their rate-cut pricing. Headline CPI climbed 3.1% year-on-year in November, down from 3.2% in October and in line with the market estimate of 3.1%. Core CPI, which is considered a more reliable gauge of inflation trends, climbed 4.0% year-on year in November, unchanged from October. This matched the market estimate of 4.0%. On a monthly basis, both CPI and Core CPI ticked higher. CPI came in at 0.1%, up from 0.0% in October and the core rate also rose from 0.2% to 0.3%. Both readings matched the market estimates. A decline in gasoline prices helped pull down inflation. However, a wide range of goods and services experienced price increases, suggesting that underlying inflation remains sticky. Today's FOMC meeting could provide clues as to what the Fed has in mind in the New Year. The markets have priced in a pause today at close to 100%, so the focus will be the rate statement and Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference. If Powell is hawkish and pushes back against rate cuts, it could force the market to again reduce rate cut expectations. New Zealand releases GDP for the third quarter on Thursday, with expectations for a weak gain of 0.2% q/q, compared to a sharp gain in Q2 of 0.9%. On an annualized basis, the market consensus stands at 0.5%, following a 1.8% gain in the second quarter. An unexpected reading could have a strong impact on the direction of the New Zealand dollar. NZD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.6076. Below, there is support at 0.6031 There is resistance at 0.6150 and 0.6195
by OANDA
EURUSD 13 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - US PPI/FOMC DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 13 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. INT structure turned bearish to liquidate the INT Low (Liquidity above the Daily Demand) and mitigated the daily demand zone. INT Structure is currently bearish, so we are still bearish and there is a high probability that we may break the Swing Low as per the Daily/Weekly Bearish Continuation. On the other side, 4H/Daily Swings are bullish and we are at the extremes. If we are going to continue these bullish structure then at least we need to see Bullish iBOS on the 4H. We also could benefit from LTFs to show us early if that daily mitigation could develop to be a Swing Continuation on the 4H/Daily. Waiting for LTF to show me more developments. 3. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 4. Technically, we still bearish and potentially we can continue down. But looking on the current market fundamentals, Market is in indecision sentiment due to End of Year (December), Inflation Expectations and Rate Hikes/Cut. Volatility is the nature of December due to the lack of liquidity. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bullish Reached EQ 2. Price failed to break the Strong Swing High and swept the liquidity above causing a bearish ChoCH. We still in bearish Swing and looking on the bigger picture we are still in the same range for almost 2 weeks now. Not much interested still in Shorting until we have a decent pullback to daily supply. From Intraday prospective, Shorts is the proper play following the 4H/15m Bearish Structure. Will wait for more development if there will be opportunity for Longs confirmation after the 15m Swing / 4H internal turns Bullish. 3. No Supply zones for Shorts that can be potential. 4. Risky Demand zone for longs. Solid confirmation needed before longs.
by Amr-Sadek
US30: Thoughts and Analysis Pre-FOMCToday's focus: US30 Pattern – N/A Support – 36,280 Resistance – 36,900 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at US30 on the daily chart. Today's video asks if US30 will continue to track higher despite being well off its moving average. This can be a warning if you believe in mean revision. The other point we are looking at in today's report is whether we will see a stall at resistance and previous highs if the price continues to increase. A key driver could be tomorrow's FOMC; traders will be looking to see if rates remain on hold as expected and what we will hear from the FED in the statement and projections. Ideas are that we could see an end to aggressive rate policy, and what could be coming next? If it's dovish, we will look for stocks to rally; if it's hawkish, we will look for stocks to decline. Expectations are already in for May rate cuts to be priced in. Will we hear anything from the Fed to substantiate this? The FOMC will be held at 6:00 am AEDT, and the FOMC press conference will be held at 6:30 am Thursday. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:US30Long
by Eightcap
GBP/USD drifting ahead of US inflationThe British pound is drifting on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2551, down 0.04%. Tuesday's UK employment report was notable for the decline in wage growth. Earnings excluding bonuses rose 7.3% in the three months to October, down from 7.8% in the three months to September. This was lower than the consensus estimate of 7.4%. Wage growth is an important driver of inflation and the decline is an encouraging sign for the Bank of England. Still, earnings are rising much faster than inflation, which suggests that the BoE won't be cutting interest rates anytime soon. Inflation has fallen to 4.6%, but this is more than double the Bank's target of 2%. The BoE will announce its latest rate decision on Thursday and is widely expected to hold the cash rate at 5.25%. Governor Bailey has warned that rates could remain in restrictive territory for an extended period, but the markets are marching to a dovish tune and have priced in three rate cuts in 2024. Bailey has come out against expectations about rate cuts and we could see the BoE push back against rate cut speculation at the Thursday meeting. The US releases November CPI later today, with a consensus estimate of 3.0% y/y, compared to 3.2% in October. Monthly, CPI is expected to remain flat, unchanged from October. Core CPI, which has been running higher than the headline rate, is projected to remain unchanged at 4.0% y/y. Monthly, the core rate is expected to inch higher to 0.3%, up from 0.2% in October. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at a range of 5%-5.25% at the Wednesday meeting, but the inflation release could be a key factor as to what the Fed does in the upcoming months. There is a major disconnect between the markets, which have priced in four rate cuts in 2024, and the Fed, which is insisting that the door remains open to further hikes. A strong inflation report could chill market expectations for rate hikes, while a soft inflation release will provide support for the market stance and could force the Fed to reconsider its hawkish position. GBP/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.25, followed by 1.2682 1.2484 and 1.2369 are the next support levels
by OANDA
EURUSD 11 - 15 Dec 2023 Weekly Analysis - FOMC Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 11 - 15 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: Weekly Daily 4H Economic Events Weekly Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Reached Swing EQ 2. After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low. 3. Price had fully mitigated the weekly supply (FLIP Zone and swept the Liq above the zone by not fully closing the candle above. Expectations are set now that we are targeting the Weak INT Low following the Bearish INT Structure. Price is approaching a weekly demand area which can provide a reaction. 4. Extreme supply within the bearish INT structure with Liq below it. A potential zone located in the Swing premium for continuation down Daily Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish OF Bearish Reached EQ 2. After BOS we expect a pullback OF turned bullish to facilitate the Swing pullback and we formed bullish iBOS to confirm the Swing Low and the pullback. With that pullback we formed Weekly and Daily demand zones which are potential for longs after confirmation on LTFs. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we are expecting a pullback. First sign of the pullback maybe starting is a CHoCH which price did and confirmed INT High. With that pullback we had formed a Supply zone that can act as a potential zone to play the pullback phase. Price reached a daily demand zone where we have seen a reaction from on Friday after NFP news. The mitigation of this daily demand zone could be the start of the Bullish continuation of the Daily INT Structure. But be mindful that the Daily Swing is Bearish, Reached the EQ and mitigated Daily/Weekly Supply zones, So we may have finished the Swing pullback and we are in the Swing bearish continuation to target the Weak Swing Low. Let's watch LTF to guide us. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. INT structure turned bearish to liquidate the INT Low (Liquidity above the Daily Demand) and mitigated the daily demand zone. INT Structure is currently bearish, so we are still bearish and there is a high probability that we may break the Swing Low as per the Daily/Weekly Bearish Continuation. On the other side, 4H/Daily Swings are bullish and we are at the extremes. If we are going to continue these bullish structure then at least we need to see Bullish iBOS on the 4H. We also could benefit from LTFs to show us early if that daily mitigation could develop to be a Swing Continuation on the 4H/Daily. Waiting for LTF to show me more developments. 3. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
Bitcoin bear market is overI think we have made the bottom for bitcoin at 15-16k area and now we are in the accumulation phase of the crypto cycle. It is hard to say how long it will take, but I am more convinced towards the accumulation phase based on my analysis of the weekly chart. There are 3 major occasions during which we have tanked below weekly 21 moving average and immediately seen a spike in volume and came back above it. Every single time that this has happened, we have made new all time highs! I have also shared my thoughts on what will happen in short term going into 3rd May 2023 fomc rate decision.
Long
by chartmaster1991
BluetonaFX - USDJPY Further Pressure MountingHi Traders! There is further downside potential on the USDJPY 4H chart. The current monthly low at 141.152 looks to be the next likely target for a possible re-test of the level. Price Action 📊 The price action looks bearish, the market swings are getting lower, and the market has been below the 20 EMA for the past week. As long as the market remains below the 20 EMA, our plan is to sell rallies to target exits near 147.152. Fundamental Analysis 📰 Today we have six FOMC members speaking, and traders will be keeping an eye on their comments regarding inflation and interest rates. Other important market events this week that could increase the volatility in the US dollar are likely to be the ISM data and the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, the Core PCE data. We will also have US GDP later in the week, and to round off the week, Fed Chair Powell will be speaking. Support 📉 147.968: WEEKLY LOW 147.152: MONTHLY LOW Resistance 📈 148.832: WEEKLY HIGH Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital. Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
11/21/23 All Indices Daily Outlook#NAS #SPX #US30 #DailyReview #DailyOutlook In the over night sessions, price was the smoothest on the indices, as the price failed to take out the PDHs on SPX and US30. NAS tapped the PDH and traded above it only to move back into the previous day’s range. The #fomc meeting notes and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in the afternoon seems to have held up up for now. The #homesales numbers came in off projects: 10:00am USD Existing Home Sales 3.79M 3.90M 3.95M The interest rates have dropped but this isn’t the time we’d typically see this number kicking up. Each of the indices has traded into 4H+FVG and that implies that we could still move up from where we are. The PDL from yesterday is my SSL draw if we push to the downside and the PWHs are still my targets for an upside move. #BullishCase As we have rest in this 4H+FVG on all 3 indexes, we’ll need to look for price to hold. As long as we don’t have an impulse to the downside through a PDL, we should be okay to still see a move from the FVG range. SPX and NAS, both have BSL as targets from the Closing session. But the targets, aside from this will be the the BSL, PDH and Was for all the Indices. #BearishCase If we manage to trade through the PDL on each of the indices and we do so with an impulse this will change my view of the short-term/ midterm to look for a sell. This would imply that the 4H+FVG has been mitigated and we could potentially see that IFVG or inverse FVG setup play out. For either situation patience and price action will lead the way! All Charts 1H
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by Cory4rex
GBP/USD heading towards 1.2550, where history will be made!The GBP/USD continues to rise for the third consecutive session, supported by the speech of the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey at the Henry Plumb Memorial Lecture on Monday. The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.2530 during Tuesday's Asian session, approaching 11-week highs. The GBP/USD was last seen trading near 1.2470, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend from July to October is located. If the pair confirms that level as resistance, it could extend its downward correction towards 1.2430 and 1,2400. Despite the US Dollar (USD) facing strong selling pressure last week, weak inflation data in the UK has made it challenging for the GBP/USD to extend its uptrend. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stated on Monday that they can start the next phase of fiscal policy and focus on reducing taxes now that inflation has halved. Sunak also noted that taxes can be reduced once inflation and debt are under control, adding that they want to support businesses to invest through lower taxes. All of this is pushing the price towards 1.2550. A crucial point where we could witness a technical confirmation of continuation or reversal. Today's and tomorrow's data during the London session will be interesting. At the time of writing, the daily chart does not show scenarios of a downtrend, but the market is unpredictable, so entry should only be made with the necessary confirmations. Personally, I will wait for the price around 1.255 and then look for M15/H4 for a long/short entry depending on technical confirmations. Comment and leave a like, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
12
XAUUSD: Reaction to the supply zone at 1983!The situation in the Middle East has impacted global markets, affecting commodities like the gold price on Comex. Despite optimism related to Chinese stimulus and expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, Comex gold faces challenges. The recent US CPI report indicated consumer inflation cooling faster than anticipated, while unemployment claims suggested a slowdown in the labor market. Market expectations of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December 2023 and potential rate cuts in 2024 have pushed the yield on the US Treasury's 10-year note to a two-month low, benefiting gold. The decline in the US dollar since September and concerns about the conflict between Israel and Hamas, with potential impacts on the global economy, have contributed to supporting gold. The People's Bank of China's decision to keep borrowing rates low and inject liquidity into markets, along with Chinese regulators' commitment to further support the real estate sector, has boosted investor confidence and limited gold's safe-haven appeal. The price of gold is currently undergoing a corrective downward phase after reaching a recent ten-day high of $1,993 on Friday, seeking a clear direction as a new week begins on Monday. The price is testing bearish commitments while hovering around the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1,975, having sharply retraced from multi-day highs on Friday. Failure to defend this level on a daily closing basis could trigger a renewed downtrend towards static support in the $1,955-$1,950 range. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates the price is in an overbought condition, suggesting a potential downward movement. The immediate upside barrier is observed at the descending trendline resistance of $1,991, above which Friday’s high of $1,993 could be retested. The corrective decline in the gold price is influenced by risk sentiment, with the absence of significant US economic data, communication from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Risk sentiment is expected to be a crucial factor in gold price dynamics and is currently influenced by optimism regarding Chinese stimulus and positive corporate earnings reports from Japanese companies. Gold is currently in an interesting situation; at the time of writing, the price is reacting to the $1980 level after reaching a supply zone on the daily chart. It will be interesting to wait for operational confirmations, above $2000 to continue and attempt to ride the bullish trend or, conversely, wait for the price to fall below $1920-$1890 to assess potential declines towards the $1850 zone. A truly interesting pair to follow.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
17
US30 general viewEnglish For this index, I see how we are on a bullish rally (Christmas rally) which is about to break its last H(HIGH) and unless something happen with the FOMC on December, I wouldn`t expect to start a bearish movement. We are currently in a monthly OB which is the last H, if it breaks that H, we could expect higher prices and maybe break the ATH price, but we also have the possibility to go down, but in this point, it is up to the FOMC and all they say on December, let`s see how the price moves. By now, it looks better to buy and not to sell, it is more probable to happen. *THIS IT NOT INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT, THIS IS ONLY FOR ANALYSIS AND EDUCATION PURPOSE* Español Para este ìndice, veo como estamos en pleno rally alcista (Rally navideño) el cual está cerca de romper su máximo anteriores y a menos que la FED comente algo en su reunión en diciembre que afecte al dolar, seguramente siga subiendo, no espero iniciar un movimiento a la baja. Estamos en pleno OB mensual bajista, el cual puede servir de contenedor para que no suba, pero lo puede romper e incluso subir a su precio ATH y romperlo, vamos a ver cómo se mueve el mercado después de la reunión de la FED en diciembre. De momento, es más probable comprar y tener éxito que vender. *ESTO NO ES RECOMENDACIÓN DE INVERSIÓN NI NADA QUE SE LE PAREZCA, ESTO ES SOLO PARA ANÁLISIS Y EDUCACIÓN*
PEPPERSTONE:US30
by DarkTradingCapital
USDCAD Waiting for the CPI to position itself towards 1.40!The Canadian Dollar experiences a slight uptick in a calm yet moderately optimistic Monday. Tuesday's Canadian CPI figures will be in focus for Loonie traders. The market anticipates a marginal increase in the monthly figure, 0.1% for October compared to September's -0.1%. The expected annualized Canadian CPI inflation is projected to cool slightly, coming in at 3.6% versus the previous 3.8%. With broader markets mainly concentrated on the US Dollar, the release of the Federal Reserve's FOMC Meeting Minutes on Tuesday could attract additional attention. Markets are betting that the Fed has concluded rate hikes, and investors are focusing on inflation figures in anticipation of future rate cuts. On the daily candlesticks, the USD/CAD continues to receive bids pushing towards dynamic technical support represented by the rising trendline from July's lows of 1.3100. Bids continue to find support from the 50-day SMA, and the long-term trend appears to support continued USD strength. On the bearish side, the USD/CAD struggles to establish significant gains, and downside risks increase as the pair moves towards the year's high side. The price is within a supply zone; in my view, the price has retested the zone and is now attempting to go long. We will see tomorrow with the CPI data if it will support this upward move towards 1.40. Personally, I will look for a hypothetical long entry tomorrow during the London open, also considering the data; then I will assess how I manage risk, which is the most important aspect—always managing capital. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
9
AUD/USD extends gains, RBA minutes next The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Monday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6553, up 0.59%. The Aussie is flexing its muscles, gaining some 3% in the past week. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of the meeting earlier this month on Tuesday. There wasn't much of a surprise as the RBA raised rates by a quarter-point to 4.35%, but the Australian dollar dropped sharply in the aftermath, which is an unusual move after a rate hike. Investors jumped all over the language of the rate statement, which suggested that the bar had risen for an additional rate hike. Interestingly, the statement also warned that inflation was "too high" and the "risk of inflation remaining higher has increased", but investors ignored this hawkish assessment. The RBA minutes may provide more clarity on whether rates have peaked. The markets are betting that the tightening cycle is over, but if the minutes signal that rates could go up, the Australian dollar could get a boost. As for 2024, the markets are expecting a rate cut, but the RBA is still trying to convince the markets that rate hikes are on the table and it isn't discussing trimming rates. Just a month ago, 10-year US Treasuries were trading at 4.98%, but have fallen to 4.44% at present. The lower yields have made US Treasuries less attractive and the US dollar has fallen against the majors recently, including the Australian dollar. The FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday and the markets will be combing through, looking for hints about upcoming rate decisions. Despite the Fed insisting that rate hikes remain on the table, the markets are confident that Fed policy will be less restrictive in the first half of 2024. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 100% likelihood of a pause in December, with a 30% chance of a rate cut in March 2024, followed by a 64% chance in May. There is resistance at 0.6587 and at 0.6600 0.6470 and 0.6397 are providing support
by OANDA