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FOMC

SPY: Analysis pre/post central bank meetings & FOMCSPY 4Hr: Market has pointed lower leading into anticipated interest rate hikes courtesy of the Federal Reserve. Asia Pac indexes hinted at the fear of headwinds of further imposed costs. The U.S. Dollar index's continued climb upwards, increased 10-year Treasury yields, average highs for U.S. mortgage rates, and elevating VIX reflect risk off sentiment into today's open. KL's to upside: 384.90, 386.49, 390, KL's to downside: 381.28, 378.84; with watch into demand zone where breach of <375 could see more follow through to the downside// Bias: Risk Off
AMEX:SPYShort
by GroundNinja
8
Possible 100% ? AKRO/USDT #AKRO #AKROUSDT Here we see our Akro/usdt 1 day chart . Look at the MACD ! It's pointed up beautifully and does appear like it will cross up through that green area where the green arrow is . If that happens I think this could possibly do a 100% up - probably to 0.010 or 0.011 which would bring you right under the 3 day Ichimoku and the 3 day 99 MA line ( though this is the 1 day chart I'm showing . ) Please keep in mind that the market is EXTREMELY volatile right now . The Fed is having their important FOMC meeting next week - and if it's bad news that's announced it could dump the market . Also the DXY dollar index is still Bullish and that could hurt Crypto markets . Also the market is still in a Bear market in general and can be dumpy out of nowhere. Although that hasn't stopped certain coins from running such as Chz/usdt . Also , another TA guy I like a lot called Payne Residence doesn't like that this chart is so 'wicky' . So it's definitely risky but just looking at the chart alone it does look Bullish with a candle almost closing above that light blue 50MA line and possibly also breaking up from the Bollinger Squeeze ....but be aware of these other market conditions . Thank you.
A
by shimmeringpath
6
Two Reasons Why the US Dollar May Have PeakedThe US dollar has topped out at 110.20, our target from last month. The last time we hit this target was earlier this month, then the markets started to anticipate that the inflation had plateued, and we saw a significant retracement back to the 107's. However, they were proven sorely wrong as inflation came in strong with CPI last week. Even with this surprise print and a looming Fed rate hike on the horizon, the DXY still has not broken highs. These two factors make us think that the DXY may have peaked and we might be due for a correction or reversal. A consistently strong dollar is already impacting import/export prices, and this will ripple through the economy. Additionally, the Fed is likely to backpedal from their hawkish rhetoric with potentially one more rate hike in the tank before they have to start cutting again. If the DXY can pick up then 111.37 is our next target. If not, we should have support in the 109's, then 108.50, with 107.20 a floor.
TVC:DXYShort
by quantguy
4
Stocks Brace for Fed Rate HikeStocks are edging lower yet again, as investors price in a potentially historic rate hike. In order to combat the highest inflation we have seen in 40 years, most agree that we are looking at a 75 bps rate hike , but some suggest it could be as high as 100 bps . However, multiple indicators suggest we are in the thicket of a recession, and after this rate hike, they are likely to pivot to a more dovish stance, with maybe one more rate hike in the tank before they're forced to start cutting again. The S&P has edged lower and dow futures have plunged more than 200 points as the market brace for the tightening. The S&P is testing 3848, and the Kovach OBV is still bearish. We do appear to be seeing some support here confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. If we can pivot, 3909 will be the next target, but we don't anticipate to break that any time soon. If we fall further, we should expect support at the base of the 3800's.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Why Bonds Might Be Nearing LowsBonds have continued their decline as the markets price in a potentially historic FOMC rate hike this week. Inflation data suggests that the Fed's rate hike trajectory is not really working and inflation is still soaring. On the other hand, multiple indicators suggest that we are in a recession, and the Fed will have to pivot their hawkish stance after this last rate hike. If that is the case, then we expect the bond market to be nearing lows. We have one more technical level before we will have to start using inverse Fibonacci extension levels to predict lows in bonds again, as 113'12 is our last technical level. The Kovach OBV also appears to be leveling off. The next targets from above are 115'03 and 115'29.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
2
$BTC - O -$BTC Hello my Fellow TraderZ, We are now coming into the most awaited week where we have FED Rate Hike announcement on SEPT 20/21. So as usual US Equity Markets is reacting to the probable Hawkish action of FED, followed by #CRYPTO as well. Many of us are expecting the rate hike to be between 0.75bps and 1bps. If we see 0.75bps, it is good and more so like #BITCOIN is pricing in by testing the June lows. Incase we see 1bps, this is a disater then and most probably #BTC would stop at 14k. But here what I see on DTF is that #BITCOIN is coming to support and probably in the making of DOUBLE BOTTOM pattern which is coupling with the BULLISH DIVERGENCE. Still hoping for the best. Be cautious and Trade well my Fam. CHEERS!!!
by TRADER-GOKU
USDJPY It will keep growing! LONGWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **USDJPY - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
6
2 Year Treasury Bond Yield vs FED Funds RateThis post is intended to show the current gap between the market for the 2 year US treasury yield on bonds and the official funds rate, and why the market is forcing central banks hands into raising interest rates when the market is in such a fragile state in ability to support and maintain debt at heighten interest rate levels. Simply put, bond market are crashing (i.e. no one wants to hold onto treasure bonds at present because they are yielding very little / people are losing faith in governments ability to uphold their debt obligations / competition in the market for credit is rising etc. etc). All these factors play into buying selling behavior and is repriced in the market. As a bond or lone has a fixed bond or repayment structure ($amount), if the capital price the bond changes hand in the secondary market is lowered, the effective yield from the bond goes up. For example if a bond is made for $10,000 and requires a 10% interest rate (i.e. $1,000) per specified period, then if this loan / contract / bond (same thinking) is changed hands in the secondary market and sold for $5,000, the new own still receivers the conditions of the prior arrangement. Hence $1000 per period. As the price was $5,000, then the interest or Yield on that bond is now 20% (i.e. $1000 / $5000 x100 = 20%). As new credit is competing against the secondary market (i.e. you could loan your money out to a new loan or you could buy an existing loan (Bond) on the secondary market), this is how the bond market drives interest rates. Complicated but hope this makes sense. in summary, falling bond prices cases rising yields or interest rates. Raising bond prices causes lower interest rates. Central Banks play in this market as a market participant with an unlimited check book (this is how new base currency or M1 enters the market ( QE - Quantitative Easing) or is removed from the currency supply (QT - Quantitative Tightening ). If Central Banks want interest rates to rise, they flood the market with bonds, dropping the market prices with excess supply and causing yields to rise. If they want interest rates to drop, they soak up supply in the market of bonds, causing prices to rice and yields (interest rates to drop). This process is called 'Open Market Manipulation'. AKA planned market manipulation at it's best. www.federalreserve.gov The 'official funds rate' is just a forecast which shows how the Central Bank plans to manipulate the bond market until it's next meeting. Interest rates on loans / bonds etc should be viewed as a measure of risk of default. High interest rates reflect the reward on offer for lending your currency out and the risk you will not get it back. In short, Market conditions (such as inflation ) changes investors view on risk. When Central Bank manipulation of the bond market goes our of whack with the risk to lending in the market, we see large gaps between the yield curves on bonds between the official funds rates issued by the Central Bank . This gap is clearly shown this chart, comparing the 2 year yield against the Official FED Funds rate (the interest rate you hear about on the TV). History shows the 2 year is a good leading indicator on what Central Banks will do with interest rates. Make no mistake, the market and inflation is forcing Central Banks to raise interest rates. I very much question the robustness of 'the economy' to handle higher interest rates at present.
TVC:US02Y
by Brodie
3
How Yesterday's CPI Impacted the US DollarThe DXY rallied massively, one of the only assets to benefit off a strong CPI reading which suggests the Fed will double down on their efforts to curb inflation. We had broken down into the 107's, then blasted through two handles to the 109's again. We are currently in the midst of our levels between 109.26 and 109.86, after testing and rejecting 109.86. We have to break through 110.20 before we can establish new highs and make a run for our next target at 111.37. If we retrace, 108.50 should provide support.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
What Yesterday's CPI Means for the Fed and StocksA hotter than expected CPI print tanked stocks yesterday, wiping out this week's rally and then some. The markets were hoping that CPI, which is the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, would show that inflation is plateauing and that their policies are working. Under these assumptions it would be reasonable to think that after September's rate hike, they would take a more dovish position. However with red hot inflation beating expectations, this is clearly not the case, and some think the Fed will double down on their stance, hiking rates to 100 bps when 50 bps was more likely just a few days prior. The S&P 500 responded accordingly, smashing through the 4000's, and reestablishing the 3000's, finally finding support at our level at 3928. It is likely the markets will equilibrate as we digest CPI, so expect the S&P to remain bounded by 3909 and 4009 for now. We will need to wait for more data to come out this week (retail sales on Thursday and University of Michigan sentiment on Friday) to get a clearer picture of the state of the economy, and how the markets will react further.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Gold's rally stalls ahead of key US inflation dataRecent price action on gold appears to be corrective, given the overlapping natures of the swings and choppy trading conditions as it grinds higher. The retracement has stalled around the 38.2% Fibonacci level and weekly R1 pivot point, and a two-bar bearish reversal formed at the resistance zone to suggest the market is trying to top out. That said, corrections always have the potential to push a little higher before momentum truly turns - and we also have a key inflation report which brings the potential for volatile spikes before its next move fully plays out. The bias remains bearish 1750 ahead of today's CPI report (with a view to scale in and tighten stops should momentum turn lower). The initial bearish target is the weekly pivot point around 1710-13 support zone, a break beneath which brings the 1700 support zone into focus.
CITYINDEX:GOLDCFDShort
by CityIndex
Nasdaq NQ - 8 Days & 1,700 PointsThe more I observe price action and the more I analyze charts, the more I feel that although the markets are absolutely primed for a major and inevitable correction towards the pre-COVID highs, which for Nasdaq and SPX are far under the June lows, we're on the cusp of a preceding bear lynching. In my recent SPX call, I had forecasted a trip to the 3,8xx range early on in this Labor Day week in anticipation of everyone's favorite global market manipulator Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking on Thursday with FOMC and an inevitable rate hike looming on the 21st: SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws What I had thought likely to happen was an early dump, followed by a pump into his speech, and then the beginning of our correction cycle. And yet after observing the price action of Bitcoin and Ethereum over the weekend (significant since they tend to lead or match with the SPX since they have a CME futures market) in addition to Monday's price action when NYSE/TSX were closed for the weekend and today's strangely simple dump-into-accumulation pattern, I have since been forced to revised my theory. I now believe that Big Jerome's talk on Thursday, September 8 is actually going to be used to propel the markets back to areas close to August highs. Taking a look at my calendar, if this theory is true and Jerome was to pump it, you'd have eight trading days to do so until FOMC. Afterwards, counting FOMC, there's still eight days left in the month to crash this plane straight into the side of the mountain all the way below July's lows as well. What's the fundamental thesis for my theory? It's simple. One is that they've been selling a lot of VIX-enhanced puts for the last week and a half and a bull run will drop VIX back to like 19 and all those puts that they sold with high implied vol for monthly OpEx will expire worthless. The second is that with VIX crushed, smart money can buy a large amount of October and November puts on the cheap for when we revisit 10,000 Nasdaq/SPX 3,500. And the third is that with the USD going rampant, Wall Street Journal reported today that foreign buyers are going full ape risk-off trying to buy US equities because their national currencies are collapsing. All on its own, perhaps it doesn't matter, yet consider that USDJPY is printing 143 and then Yen is the most worthless its been in 24 years: Japan is most significant since the Bank of Japan pays no yield on bonds and so all that old, generational money props up the US equities market as it seeks returns elsewhere. Also, the Bank of Japan's next meeting, where it really may have to finally abandon Yield Curve Control, is on the same day as FOMC: Sept. 21. If BoJ is forced to raise their rates, finally, to try to save the Yen, and the Federal Reserve does something fun like 100 bps at the same time, you really are going to see the market crash with astoundingly violent force. And if something this exciting were to happen, of course, as a Wall Street sociopath and a proper market maker, you would want prices to be high in advance, to take full advantage of the foreign market brought to you and the delightful opportunity to throw everyone off balance. For all of this to work out will require that we aren't yet at the bottom. And we're not. Instead, I believe the pattern will be some kind of support or double bottom or stop sweep established around one of the June pivots @ ~11,500. This is under the psychological 12,000 level and also doesn't totally break market structure yet. Then, to rip it in the other direction back to a reasonable level will require a number roughly like 13,400. I do not believe they will take out the August high because what will unfold is ultimately a bull trap and not a true bear squeeze or a trend reversal. Now you might think to yourself that this is too much volatility. This kind of pump is too far away, too fast. And this notion is really very reasonable. However, I want to point out that Nasdaq did better than this in March, where it ran 2,300+ points in 11 trading days. Actually, counting the first eight trading days only, it more or less made 2,000 of those points. And so, you all need to be careful. If this is totally wrong and you buy the bottom and it dies, well, it will hurt, but not so much if you keep your risk low. There will be good chances to buy a healthy gap up. Where you're likely to get hurt is bottom shorting. But the ones who are really going to get skinned are the FOMO crowd and the people who have no idea what time it is. For a few days you will have returns. And for one weekend in the middle of September, as the autumn air chills, you'll be able to enjoy martinis at the bar, feeling like you've made it back to Tesla $1,000 Apple $200 and are thinking about what to waste your future winnings on. But what comes after the Party is over will be like waking up from a dream and finding yourself inside of a concrete nightmare. Because the drive down this time won't be like January-May was. It will gap down and the Terminator will be deployed, and hard, a lot like the COVID days. But perhaps this time the Fed won't have any QE to save you with, because the intention is not to save you and keep the old Party going this time, it is to create a crisis and then save you from that crisis with a new Party composed of their technocratic paradigm of super communism.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
4