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FOMC

USDJPY I Long bias as FED poised to deliver big interest hike!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **USDJPY - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
14
FED DAY!!!Good morning! Well.....yesterday's down day I'm assuming was because of the JOLTS Report. Employment openings for the month totaled 10.72 million. Estimated 9.85 million. So, well above. This is something the FED does not want to see. It doesn't help inflation. But again, everyone wants to hear what J Powell has to say today. What could happen after he speaks and in the coming days? Although we are above the 50 day, I feel that there are more elements of a bear market. We could be in the finishing days of the ABC correction of this bear rally before rolling over. And, I'd still be ok with seeing the market heading to 3970ish, 4010ish. The price action at those levels will really tell me if this is a bear rally or not. So when will we get our pivot from the Fed? I really don't think we'll see a change in an upward direction until early 2023. Maybe February or March we could see a final low. Especially if we get another .75 in December. Plan for today: If we get a 2%, 3% up day, I'm not going to go chase it. We could trade sideways the next couple days before we make the next move. If we push to 3970ish, 4010ish, I will monitor the price action and volume to pre-determine next week's possible outlook. And if the market doesn't like what J Powell has to say today and we sell off....well, I'll start to manage my short positions I'm currently holding and follow my levels down. Stay disciplined, be patient, trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
1
GOLD TRADING IDEA 02 NOVEMBERYesterday gold got some bullish price action broken out from the key level 1642-1644 back tested and went up to 1657, as stated in earlier reports but after PMI & JOLTS job opening data , dollar roar again caused weakness in gold and went back below 1644-1645. Today we are expecting gold to gain back all the losses made from PMI & Jolts job opening, As we stated in our previous analysis, any spike in gold will be short lived because the dollar is still dominating the market with FED interest rate decision today with expected rate hike of 75 BPS already priced in. Trade setups for today. GOLD weakness still in the game in higher as well lower time frame Any pullback to 1658-1660 area will be a opportunity to short Targeting - 1634-1635. Break below 1642-43 will be a short opportunity after getting confirmation in smaller time frame. Break above 1661-62 and a back test , will be a long opportunity targeting 1680. a deeper pullback to 1678-1680 is still a strong resistance and a short opportunity targeting 1635-1632. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change @ 5.45 PM IST will remains in focus today. All trade ideas are valid until Pre New York session , as we have FOMC , FED interest rate decision around 11.30PM IST. Trade ideas on FOMC will be updated hours before the event. Enjoy :-)
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Fxoverseas
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/2/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2022 - PR High: 11343.75 - PR Low: 11318.75 - NZ Spread: 56.0 Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM) - Weekend Gap: -0.28% (open > 11621) - 8/29 Weekend Gap: -0.18% (open > 13125) - 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13540) - Session Open ATR: 355.03 - Volume: 23K - Open Int: 278K - Trend Grade: Bear - From ATH: -32.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 12391 - Mid: 11820 - Short: 10678 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQZ2022Long
by mv3trader5
November FOMC preview – where the risk to markets resides Time – 3 Nov 5am AEDT / 6PM GMT (Jay Powell speaks at 05:30 AEDT) Central bank meetings are just so important to sentiment and market structure – when we’re trading a major market theme, such as inflation and rising interest rates, this is the market’s chance to mark-to-market policy changes and how the collective in the bank guide our expectations for future meetings ahead. For traders, notably for those who have exposures sensitive to policy changes, they simply must assess the potential for big volatility, which could affect their positions – our job is to recognise the propensity for sizeable movement, the skew in the outcome distribution and if our stop placement is too close/far from the market. Do we reduce, exit or in some cases even initiate positions? For others, the central bank meeting will shape the trading environment and the market structure they work in - not just for that trading session, but for the following days ahead. Consider day traders who work within a specific timeframe and need to assess if price action constitutes a trending day, and therefore they look more closely at momentum strategies. Or is it more of a choppy, sideways, range-bound day, and therefore looking more readily at intra-day mean reversion strategies? ‘Environment recognition’ is key for day traders and scalpers and edge comes from being able to identify the regime we’re in – perhaps through the application of market profile, VWAP, Bollinger Band strategies (to name a few), as well as good old fashion price action. An overview of the November FOMC meeting As we know event risk seldom gets more important than an FOMC meeting, so this is a risk we need to manage. Trading these tier 1 events takes skill like no other – we must react to the statement, but then 30 minutes later we react to individual words and nuance in the press conference from chair Jay Powell. It’s always the high frequency algo’s that recognise the keywords first and we mortals are left trying to react according. Even once the presser has finished and the dust has settled, quite often we see the ensuing Fed members speaking over the coming week giving their own personal view, and often when we’ve seen violent moves on the day, they will walk back any extreme reaction. The first move is not always the right move. To some, this lively backdrop, especially when we consider reduced liquidity can be nirvana-type conditions. To others, this is the environment where they have no edge and see it best to stand aside and let price do its thing. A hawkish ‘step down’ on the cards We’ve been treated to a roller coaster in Fed ‘pivot’ expectations - Ranging from a WSJ article of an impending ‘step down’ in the pace of hikes starting at the December meeting. To dovish turns from the RBA, ECB and BoC – however, the Fed are their own boss and they see US labour market data that has been solid (as donated by the Employment Cost Index and JOLTS report) – US 5-year inflation expectations are rising and next week’s US core CPI print will likely be close to unchanged at 6.6% YoY - it seems highly unlikely that the Fed will want to promote a positive reaction in risky assets, and the risks to markets in my mind are skewed to a hawkish reaction – equity up, bond yields and the USD lower. In the Fed’s view, putting the US into a recession is still a lesser evil than not tackling entrenched price pressures. While traders would fall off their chair if the Fed didn’t hike by 75bp at this meeting, it’s the guidance for future meetings which is where we get a reaction in markets. We are likely to hear that the pace of hikes in the future will fall to a more conventional pace – this is the ‘step down’ many have focused on. But this narrative will be accompanied by strong conditionality, and the statement will be about giving the Fed maximum flexibility and optionality for the December meeting – that call will be fully data-dependent. So, consider there is a lot of information between now and the 14 December FOMC meeting – we have 2 non-farm payrolls reports, the Oct CPI print (11 Oct) and the midterm elections. It’s no wonder the market is pricing 62bp of hikes for that meeting and hedging their bets of a 50 or 75bp hike – it's this pricing for the Dec FOMC meeting which I think is key for markets. Rates Review – we see market pricing for the Nov FOMC meeting at 75bp – then a step to 62bp in the Dec meeting. The holy trinity – the three markets to drive cross-asset volatility Pricing for the December FOMC meeting So part of the reaction will be seen in the pricing for the Dec FOMC meeting which currently sits at 4.41% – traders can see this on TradingView by typing ‘100-ZQF2023’ into the navigator. A dovish reaction would be to see this headed below 4.4%, where we would expect the USD to sell off and gold and equities to rally. A push towards 4.50% would see USDJPY push towards 150 and EURUSD through 0.9800. Terminal fed funds rates pricing We also look at the terminal rates pricing – this is the peak of market expectations for where the Fed can take rates, which currently sit in the May to June 2023 period at 5% – we can type in ‘100-ZQK2023’ into the navigator. A firm break above 5% would send risk lower. US 2-year Treasury I also look at US real rates and 2yr Treasuries (US02Y) closely as a driver for risk assets – If yields rise then we should see the NAS100 and gold fall and the USD spike, especially if we take out the 21 Oct high of 4.63% – conversely if yields fall/price rise then the USD will likely fall. As always around key events, the reaction in markets is a function of: • The outcome vs Expectations • Positioning • Hedging activity • Liquidity My own view is the risks are skewed for a hawkish reaction – USD higher, but I will recognise the moves in rates suggests the market is largely positioned for this outcome.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXEducation
by Pepperstone
2
Trading the FOMC MeetingTomorrow we have another FOMC meeting. In 2022 we've seen ~3% moves during and/or by end of next day (shown on chart). In my opinion (not financial investment advice)... There will be an initial move and then a rip in the opposite direction for a big move, as has happened in the past. As bearish the economy is and I am personally, we may hear pre-midterm political "pivot" talk to drive markets up for voters. That said, tomorrow we could see a fast move lower followed by a rip up to ~4100 to fill that gap you see in the chart. Whatever happens it will be extremely volatile. Keep your stops tight and/or entry's accurate. What you'll see on the chart is a gap indicator along with a market breadth indicator. We're finishing up these 2 free indicators and will be posting them for people to use very soon. Good luck trading!
SP:SPX
by QuantVue
3
XAUUSD : IT IS WHAT IT ISThe price reversed at 1,630 yesterday on the closing candle, without hitting my 1,620 TP. That is a strong bullish reversal on the 4H time-frame, which turned bullish again (RSI # 55.377, MACD # -0.490, ADX # 40.179) as the price broke above the 4H MA50 (1,648.70). Once again, the 4H MA200 (1,662.77) is the Resistance level to beat, which failed on Oct 26 - 27. A closing above it would be a buy call, targeting 1,675 on the short-term. I still have my sell open (TP # 1,620) but if the price drops back to the 4H MA50 again and see an attempt to rebound, I will close it immediately (4H MA50 is break-even) as I don't want to hold any positions coming into tomorrow's Fed Rate Decision. However if the price closes above the 1D MA50 (1,680 currently), I will buy again, targeting the 1D MA100 (now at 1,725.87 and dropping) but will move the SL on break-even just before the Fed tomorrow. As I've been mentioning for months, the main reason behind Gold's rise today is the very aggressive drop on the US10Y (bonds direct competing asset to Gold, both safe havends).
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MolfDassler
BTC fighting the top of the GC Addition to my last $BTC analysis, $BTC is fighting the top of the GC on the daily. We can see that this has not been successfully defeated for a while. A break out above that and the 100 DSMA which converge at approx the same levels will be important if the bulls where to stand a chance. Reminder that these days Macro is king. Keep eyes on announcements coming out this week: Wednesday (tomorrow): FOMC rate announcement; +75 bps expected. lower would be extremely bullish. maintaining 75bps although already priced in will bolster $DXY and negatively affect markets. Also, #FOMC statement and language used will be carefully analyzed for tone. (hawkish vs a little dovish) Thursday: BOE rate announcement: likely worsening conditions there and in the EU Friday: US unemployment: counter-intuitively, lower unemployment will be bad for the markets.
Short
by BiloCrypto
USDTNGN - To drop to 630/$ then rise to 800, 900 & 950/$#Nigerian Naira Rate (Update) Day after day, the Nigerian currency is losing it’s value. Here is a weekly timeframe analysis. Based on technical analysis, Naira broke it’s major resistance at 630/$ to $710 and pullback is needed to gain momentum for the next run up. Therefore I expect a fall to 630/dollar before a rise to new price target at 800, 850, 900, 950 per dollar. Not a financial advice🙅🏼‍♂️ Share your opinion in the comment section✍️ Please support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳 Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
UShort
by PetrockFxTrading
9
VERY Bearish momentum for 2 NOV after FED FOMCHi Everyone, why am i telling you this? this is the 3rd time FED will hiking the 75bps interest rate we have been through the 1st and 2nd one, the gold got much pressure after the hike interest rate announcement FED aiming 4,75 - 5,00 % for the 2022 , but it dont sure yet for the december hike , because they need to see the market reaction and the data that will release about the end of november until the middle of december but we can surely about more than 90% the fed will raise on 2 November 2022 about 75bps or maybe 100bps because they want to bring inflation down at least near the level (normally 1,25 -2,25 % inflation is great) if the inflation going down to at least 7,5% and the interest rates will become 4%, and then interest rates 5% at the end of december its very clear the FED will pivot to make sure they got softlanding probability it will start slowing down on Q1 2023. some news you can check it out: www.youtube.com www.youtube.com www.youtube.com the price will be very fluctuative / volatile , you should watch your risk management, dont risk more than 1%, there is chance to high then drop please watch 1722 level, and for me i can see the bottom is around 1532 -1564 . (please dont risk more than 1% in this trade) watch your risk management. Good Luck. i try to always we will keep you all updated . Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, i really appreciate you support ! Goodluck i'll help you to have a great trade. Please using good money management. dont take any emotional trade. Note: Dont risk more than 0.2% on trending market Dont risk more than 1% on ranging market Wish good luck for all people. Please help support me by Clicking like button, and if you like my ideas please follow me and support me. i Relly Appreciate it! i'll make more and more great analysis if this chanel grows. on Gold , Oil , Nasdaq, SP500 , and some American, China, Japan, Indonesia stocks. Best luck for you. Cheers mate! Thankyou.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LaurentWilvyne
3
GOLD TRADE IDEA 01 NOVEMBERGold following the plan so far. ever since the rejection from 1673-1675 area we are bearish bias, later also it has broken the red uptrend channel to the upside, so in higher time frame as well lower time frame we are bearish bias. later today we have ISM manufacturing PMI & JOLTS job opening at 7.30PM IST, we are expecting bad data today which may cause a short lived spike in gold. New month starts so be aware of monthly rebalance of flow moves with main focus being the FED interest rate decision. Until then, high possibility of Ranging/aggressive pullbacks to set up better price points. Stay adaptive. Trade setups for today, Looking for short on pullback to 1642-1644 level targeting 1625, Before FED interest rate decision announcement tomorrow , we might see some higher high in gold before aggressive selling to the down side, So if gold breaks out from 1644-1645 and then back test these level forming double bottom , this will be a long opportunity targeting 1675-1680, Any move below 1632-1633 is sell opportunity targeting 1615-1620, 1675-1680 zone still a big hurdle in higher time and out major resistance, we will be looking for sell entry after confirmation targeting - 1630-1635.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Fxoverseas
EURUSD LONG: Trade Carefully As Sellers Might Ambush Anytime!With the markets pivoting in the FED's aggressive hiking cycle, there is a fear is the market that the DXY would take a temporary breathing room and consolidate further. But make no mistake! DXY is still in the uptrend as the US economy is showing resilience thus making FED less worried in their quest to tame the inflation by hiking interest rates. Even if the FED pivots by the end of year, the interest rate differentials between USD and other major currency is still going to be wide thus making USD more valuable. As said above, EURUSD is still on major sell trend, here according to technical picture there is a slight room for EURUSD to appreciate towards the 1.01250 area. Beyond this, we need further level break on technical level to assure that EURUSD would keep rising as it faces multiple stern resistance. Have a look at the main chart for all the technical aspects behind this trading idea. Trade Safe & Cautiously.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Another low in play for Nasdaq?Third quarter results for big tech came out last week and it wasn’t pretty. Is this a harbinger of another low? Look at the price action, the Nasdaq 100 is now sitting just below the .5 Fibonacci Level which has marked a local resistance level. Curiously the price structure looks very familiar when compared with the April to June period. In that episode, prices tried to break upwards (1) but lost momentum. This resulted in a large drop to the next lower Fibonacci level (2), followed by a rally back to the 0.382, Fibonacci level above (3), where resistance was met again, and prices fell (4). Is what we are looking at now a reprise? On the macro side of things, a couple of factors keep us bearish. Firstly, the behemoth federal reserve balance sheet is only in the first innings of its reduction program. This worries us as the effect of this reduction is the removal of liquidity in the financial markets which could lead to higher volatility. We will keep our eyes & ears peeled for this week’s FOMC, to identify any potential changes to the quantitative tightening schedule. Secondly, we point back to our previous research and note that the Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio is still at incredible highs, with further room to fall when compared back to the dot-com bubble in 2000. If we layer the 10-year yield (inverted) onto this Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio, one could argue that the tech outperformance could be driven by the decade-long fall in interest rates. With interest rates sharply higher now, and a few more hikes on the cards, we wonder if Nasdaq can truly hold up against the S&P500. With murmurs of a Fed Pivot driving the Nasdaq higher over the past few days, we think this presents a good opportunity for a short position. As laid out by the price structure we observed and the overhanging bearish macro picture we think another low is in play for the Nasdaq 100 index. With FOMC this week and a packed economic calendar, one way to manage risk is to trade the Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures, which is a smaller and more manageable contract, allowing you the option to average into your position. Entry at 11,540, stop at 12,150. Target at 10,300. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by inspirante
10
The week ahead - DXY (31 October 2022)Towards the end of last week, the DXY showed some recovery as it bounced from the 109.50 price area to retest the 111.00 price level. However, the DXY retraced to 110.66 to end the trading week. This will be a big week for the DXY, with the release of the decision of the FOMC regarding the Funds Rate, Statement, and the accompanying press conference due on Thursday. Rather than the interest rate decision, focus more on the forward guidance regarding the path of future rate decisions and the FOMC's view of economic performance. If the DXY fails to trade above the 111 price level early in the week, the DXY is likely to continue to slide and retest the support area of 110 and 109.30. Recent weakness in the US economic data had provided some doubt as to whether the FOMC will persist with its current aggressive path of rate hikes, hence the slide in the DXY. The FOMC is forecasted to increase by 75bps, taking interest rates to 4.00% at the upcoming meeting. This decision is likely to have been priced in already. At the last meeting, the DXY traded higher from the 111 price level, which started the climb toward the high of 114.77. This time, look for the DXY to bounce from the support area possibly toward the 112 resistance level Following the rates decision, on Friday, we'll have the release of key employment data for the US, the Non-Farm (NFP) employment change. The forecast is for a 200k change, from the previous 263k, with the unemployment rate expected to increase slightly to 3.6%. Depending on the reaction from the FOMC news, the NFP news event is likely to have little impact unless there is a significant surprise in the data release. (Stay tuned for further updates throughout the week)
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
2