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FOMC

DXY DECEMBER OUTLOOK 2 scenarios that can play out this week, preparing for the month of December to end off the year. Scenario 1 - Fed chair Jerome Powell gives a very hawkish stance during the FOMC meeting on Thursday 2am sgt. Continue rate hikes into early 2023, no slowing down of rate hike to lower inflation rates. I need to see strong economic data during NFP this Friday which will give strength to the dollar and weakness to gold. Dollar to break up out of range heading towards at 110 possibly 111 regions HRHR GOLD SELLS - 1753 region MRMR GOLD SELLS - 1747 region SAFE GOLD SELLS BELOW 1739 REGION Scenario 2 - Fed chair Jerome Powell gives a dovish stance during FOMC meeting, giving hints of a slowdown in rate hikes, probably a 50 bps in the next rate hike or a 25 bps as we have seen improvement in inflation data in the last CPI. NFP data is bad this Friday as per forecasted till date. Dollar to continue its bearish momentum heading towards 105 possibly 103 regions HRHR GOLD BUYS - 1764 MRMR GOLD BUYS - 1785 SAFEST GOLD BUYS ABOVE 1800 REGION
TVC:DXY
by CJ_GOLDPIPS
Happy Thanksgiving (DXY)Overnight, the DXY broke below the 106.70 price level to trade significantly lower toward the key support area of 105.60. This move lower followed the current downtrend but was intensified following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. The meeting minutes indicated that the current monetary policy is ‘approaching a sufficiently restrictive level”. This signaled the possibility that the Federal Reserve could slow down on the scale of further rate increases. However, uncertainty was also cast on the “ultimate level of Fed funds rate required to contain inflation”. Therefore, look for the DXY to continue falling lower, toward the key support area of 104.65. Watch out for choppy price action as the US market is closed for thanksgiving today.
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
1
NZDUSD belatedly breaks up after hawkish RBNZ, broad USD selloffNZDUSD looks to have taken out resistance capped just below 0.6230, which may set the stage for upward extension toward resistance in the 0.6352-0.6469 zone. Reclaiming a foothold below 0.6150 now seems necessary to neutralize near-term upward pressure. Prices were relatively staid after November's RBNZ announcement registered on the hawkish end of expectations - seeing some gains at first but struggling to find momentum - but overall USD weakness offered fuel thereafter (with November FOMC meeting minutes at least somewhat helpful in pushing the Greenback lower, though its slide began before the news hit the wires).
Long
by IlyaSpivak
This might changed everything for Bitcoin!I know it's a messy chart but lucky we have to focus on just a few things! As we just got the message that most FED officials backed slowing the pace of rate hikes we did see a small pump for BTC and a dump for the DXY. For the DXY I would like us to stay under $110 ish. For Bitcoin we have a few levels to watch closely. First the key levels to watch if we want to see upwards momentum: •16.8k •17.5k •18.6k And some key levels for the downside: •15.8k •15.5k •14.8k The explanation was to hit approximately 14.8k after we did broke the triangle but after the news we have gotten today we can hopefully throw this out of the window. Trade safe!
by Mynameisnotrelevant
1
FOMC minutes, what to expect, USD & Gold - 50sThe PMI data today has given the US Dollar bears a head start before the FOMC minutes are released. Firstly, the recent cooler-than-expected US Consumer Price data has already created sentiment for a Fed pivot and investors' hopes that the central bank may be in a position to moderate its pace of hikes. In the prior statement, it read "In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments." This statement gave rise to volatility in markets as investors positioned for a softer approach from the Fed which Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against in his presser by suggesting that there will likely be a higher terminal rate. Therefore, the minutes will be scrutinised for clarity in this regard. ''We expect the November FOMC meeting minutes to shed further light on the FOMC's deliberations regarding the expected downshift in the pace of rate increases in upcoming meetings,'' analysts at TD Securities said.  ''But above all, we look for the minutes to place a lot of emphasis on the likelihood that the terminal rate will need to end up higher than anticipated initially. The Fed still needs to grind down the labour market to align wage and household spending growth with rates more consistent with the inflation target.'' In such a scenario, this could put a bid into the US Dollar that has been downtrodden ahead of the event. However, the upside is compelling in Gold as explained in the video.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ross-J-Burland
Blackhole Cursor and FOMC Minutes Plots I asked about the Blackhole cursor and apparently it's an Easter Egg they added for a short time. It's kinda fun, so check if you have it. I plotted FOMC minutes and it seems to be more of a pivot than I thought. I figured the speeches and rate decisions would've been cleaner, but these seem closer to the actual pivots. I guess we could break out of the bear trend once and for all, but I'll be skeptical until it does. Tomorrow's flood of econ data will set the mood.
AMEX:SPY
by Nicklaus68
8
Breakout potential on the DXYAlthough the DXY traded with choppy price action on Friday, fluctuating along the 106.50 price level, the DXY has climbed steadily to retest the round number resistance area of 107. Look for the price to break above the 107.20 price level to signal further upside potential, with the next resistance at 108.30. Further upside on the DXY could be driven by significant weakness in the EURUSD and possible comments to come from the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate decisions.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
2
Can the US dollar index (DXY) pick itself back up?What a difference a week (or in this case, a single CPI report) can make. Last week we were bullish on the dollar index due to the cluster of support levels nearby, and expectations for inflation to exceed estimates. Clearly, the fundamentals of a much softer CPI report made minced meat of the support zone and sent the dollar index lower, during its worst week since the pandemic. Yet there are signs that momentum is waning and DXY may be due a bounce. It should also be remembered that the Fed are nowhere near this famous 'pivot', and that the Fed will continue to hike rates whilst the economy can withstand it. And retail sales suggest the consumers think they can withstand higher rates, at least for now. DXY daily chart: The US dollar may be approaching a swing low and ticks a few boxes for a potential inflection point. Downside momentum has slowed, a bullish hammer formed on Tuesday and a small inside bar occurred yesterday. Furthermore, it is holding comfortably above the August low and a bullish divergence has formed on the RSI (2). For now, it is a case of seeing whether it can hold above yesterday's low (105.32) and reverse higher, or whether it has one more attempt at testing the August low. Given the magnitude of its losses, mean reversion (higher) seems more likely over the near-term, with potential targets including the weekly pivot point ~108, or the 109.50 area should US data remain firm and Fed members remain hawkish.
TVC:DXYLong
by CityIndex
GBPUSD LongCable is pushing higher as the DXY continues to correct. GBPAUD and EURUSD are also a buy, suggesting that the EUR and GBP are benefiting from a weaker dollar. There is a slight gap left from the opening price compared to last weeks close, so we have the opportunity to fill that. Assuming the same thing happens as last week, we'll carry on higher. But that is the place on the chart to watch for a reversal. The US CPI last week set the re-pricing of assets and there are still around 30 days before the FOMC decide on their next move.
Long
by Macrobriefing
1
Down first, then up?A classic bull flag had a false breakout overnight. Price has fallen back into it and retested the upper channel, failing there too. The 50DMA is at $ES 3830-40, and it's entirely possible we revisit that level between now and the FOMC announcement tomorrow afternoon. Following that, if the bull flag plays out completely, upside potential is all the way up at $ES 4000. The downside is also likely as participants seek event protection and bid up volatility, after which vol is crushed following the event (regardless of the outcome).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by gr8fultrading
GBPUSD D1 - Long Setup (following daily correction)GBPUSD D1 - Wouldn't like to attempt to swing short this pair, due to it's aggressiveness, or any USD related pair for that matter, however, I would still be happy to indicated preferred buy zones upon relative corrections, regardless of where we head, we can simply prepare ourselves for buy opportunities amongst ***USD pairs, whether we pullback and realise them is another thing, we can just keep adjusting our entries and zone plays until something unfolds. Based on Fridays moves, I feel a correction could be due early this week, gold sitting at a key price on D1 resistance 1765.
Long
by Trade_Simple_FX
1
US100 14400 is a bullish targetThe Inverse Head & Shoulders has completed. There will be loads of stops under the right shoulder and the head. But for now, we have to assume that the pattern is going to play out. In my other research, I detail why fundamentally the Nasdaq should go higher but you would have to dig around and find it on the internet because I am not allowed to tell you where it may be. The reason I put it on a different platform is that I can't upload the charts of my research here! The nut of the thesis is that there is still a lot of money flowing into the markets from the US government. Targets for a (i)H&S is x2 the distance from the head to the neckline, projected in the direction of the breakout. Just be on the lookout for a fundamental reason why the algos reverse the price action and attack those stops under the RHS and Head
U
by Macrobriefing
2
BTC apocalypse is nearI'm back with another warning and yes I know I have been repeating myself so here's the latest update... Bitcoin and the overall crypto market are playing a game of ping pong with the market makers actively sourcing liquidity from the futures market. This creates choppy price action without a real direction within the local range between 45K and 34K. These types of environments are far from ideal for day trading and it is this type of price action that has blown up many accounts over the past months. In my opinion you should stay away from such plays and focus on the long term - at least that's what I'm doing. Currently Bitcoin is inside a pennant or symmetrical triangle and should be continuing its trend down next week. With the FOMC opening the next trading week we could see some high volatility incoming soon. With inflation through the roof (and no that's not just geopolitical pressure but mostly policy or lack thereof) the Fed WILL TAPER and RATE HIKE AGGRESSIVELY. The Fed has been sitting about for too long hoping for transitory inflation (what a joke), fading supply chain issues (wasn't the real problem to begin with) and aiming for a soft landing. By doing so, they left too much time on the table doing absolutely nothing, that now they are forced to act decisively or completely lose credibility. This means there is no bullish narrative for the risk-on market (in the mid / short term) regardless of what some "experts" are trying to tell you. Market makers have been preparing for next week since last October so my suggestion is you come prepared as well (whatever that means for your portfolio and your situation). We got some simple levels here that will tell you what will happen: confirmed break of 45K > 56K (very unlikely but never say never), confirmed break of 37K > 30K. Be ready and good luck. Ps. don't get into risky trades, take the outmost caution, you don't need to make money now, you should make money in the long run. For more info check the links below.
Short
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
243