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FOMC

SHY/HYG - Daily, Inverted Candles, SPX overlay - Credit spread(4/10/2023) Monday - I wanted to publish this chart so we can follow the effect the credit spread had on the S&P 500 (SPX). As you can see the inverted candles correlate well with the SPX. Note the candles are inverted and the SPX is not, just to show better correlation. At the time of publishing there has been a significant move in credit that supports underlying conditions for the S&P 500. This is opposite what the FOMC is trying to accomplish as it causes more inflation. With CPI coming out this week, Bank earnings start Thursday, and then the FOMC goes into blackout before the next Employment situation report for April. A lot can change. Being the last situation report was on Friday (US Markets closed observing Good Friday and Easter), Im not sure that report has been digested yet either. On Mondays I post a market video and will include this link among the links to the yield curve inversions, and the IEF/LQD (Financial Conditions), unfolds. We can watch the bar replays. I added links to these charts below also.
NASDAQ:SHYLong
by Markets-Sniper
DXY - Flirting with Historically Bearish LevelThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is still flirting with a historically bearish level and momentum. JPOW has to come out swinging this week during the FOMC to save DXY 101/2 level. Remember, generally speaking DXY down = BTC up. In the past 30 years, the DXY was rejected along the red line (~101), signaling larger downside moves. Given the recent parabola and retreat by the DXY, momentum in a bearish trend, this is looking like increasingly likely to happen an 8th time in the coming months.
TVC:DXY
by 1BigPapi
DXY Potential Forecast | Pre NFP | 3rd April 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Plenty of USD news happening along the week. 2. All eyes will be on NFP. 3. At Olympus, we are forecasting payrolls to print <250k compared to 311k previous. 4. There has been multiple economic data release on the USD, highlighting the slow down of its economy and inflation. 5. ISM manufacturing PMI releasing later on in the day and forecasted 47.4 compared to 47.7 previous. 6. Anticipating USD to have more softer prints which will incentive Fed to take on a more dovish approach. Technical Confluences 1. H4 support at 101.67. 2. Price could potentially come lower to the support at 101.67. 3. Price currently hovering at the H4 resistance at 1102.899 and is rejecting it. 4. Anticipating further downside momentum on DXY. Idea Anticipating bearish price action on DXY for the week and for price to potentially break the H4 support at 101.6. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
DXY Potential Forecast | 31st March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Core PCE Price Index at 830pm GMT+8, am anticipating a better than previous result which could potentially see further downside momentum on DXY. 2. Sentiments from the market continues to be bearish on the DXY. 3. Economic sentiments from an increase in unemployment claims and final GDP q/q printing 2.6% lower than 2.7% forecast sets the tone for bearish continuations. Technical Confluences 1. Price is nearing the support at 101.67 2. If this support is broken, we could see further bearish momentum and a new low could potentially be formed beyond 100.802. Idea With a strong bearish bias for the DXY today, price could potentially tap into 101.67. However, do take note that it is a Friday and trade safely. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
VIX - is the sell 20, buy 30 strategy done?Throughout 2022 you would have done VERY well taking profit when the TVC:VIX hit 20 and accumulating when the VIX hit 30. But has this trend concluded? This movement and profit/accumulation opportunity is consistent with the most recent tightening from 2017 to 2018 where fed funds were rising, and the yield for 2 year treasuries in the bond market exceeded fed funds. When the yield for 2 year treasuries fell below fed funds the VIX remained below 20 until covid hit. The VIX spiked during covid and consistently descended while the market expanded. This pattern is only observed in the most recent cycle and not something that we see consistently repeated historically. If the 2 year remains below fed funds, should not expect the VIX to range between 20 to 30 or will 20 to become the ceiling?
TVC:VIXLong
by Ben_1148x2
FOMC Coming. Will Volatility Bring Gold Back to Its All-Time HigWhat's going on in the market? We have collected some of the most important news and events that could affect your trading in the near future. The Fed Is Becoming Not So Hawkish. Can Gold Reach the Top Price? Investors have seen the Fed as very hawkish in the past 12 months, which has looked less so in the past month. The financial sector in the US and several regions is undergoing a true stress test. The Fed's implied Fed Funds Target Rate for 2023 drops by a sizeable distance relative to current conditions, suggesting a more dovish tone. From a technical point of view, the price of gold is between 1,940 - 2,000 USD per troy ounce, forming a Symmetrical Triangle pattern. An upward break of this pattern could signal a potential continuation to the range 2,040 - 2,065 USD per troy ounce. Conversely, if the gold price breaks below this pattern, there is an opportunity to test the previous support area at the range 1,870 - 1,900 USD per troy ounce. We will keep you informed about current market trends and their drivers. Stay tuned for more updates in the future
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Easymoney182
DXY Potential Forecast | 29th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Uncertainty continues to surround the USD 2. Fed balance sheet continues to inject money to aid the banks in crisis Technical Confluences 1. Resistance level that price is currently at can potentially be rejected before heading back down 2. Price could potentially create a new lower low 3. on the H4 timeframe, DXY is on a bearish trend and we can anticipate further bearish continuations. Idea Strong bearish bias on DXY, anticipating price to tap into the key H4 support level below. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
DXY:USD continues weakeningHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a selling opportunity around 104.3 zone. since the last FOMC USD have showed a strong bearish momentum. first of all there was a soft rate hike of 25 bps and secondly in the speech after the meeting fed Powell didn't showed any intents for further rate hikes which is considered dovish. Technically if we get any extending pullbacks from 102 support we can see a strong selling opportunity around 104.3 zone support and resistance zone at the major trend. trade safe, Joe.
TVC:DXYShort
by JoeChampion
29
USDJPY Potential Forecast | 28th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Plenty of uncertainty surrounding the banking and financial system/ USD. 2. JPY continues to be the more stable currency. Technical Confluences 1. Price in a strong bearish trend with price under the Ichimoku cloud 2. Lower lows and lower highs are being formed 3. Price can potentially retest the support level at 129.82. Idea Looking for bearish trend continuation and for price to tap into the key support level at 129.82. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
USDJPY:Classic safe havens continue to outperform the DollarHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around 131.500 zone. USDJPY is trading in a downtrend and extending pullbacks seems to be approaching the major trend around 131.5 support and resistance zone. Fundamentally Fed pivot seems to have started with the last FOMC as he showed no more intents for further rate hikes in his speech. Considering also JPY to be a safe haven with banking sector crisis. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
20
Downjones:Stocks are looking attractive with Fed pivotHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around 32500. US30 is trading in a downtrend but we expect a potential breakout due to the last FOMC as it was dovish with fed slowing down and not mentioning any further rate hike in his speech. thus that should be bearish for Dollar, and bullish for stocks and cryptos as they are negatively correlated with the USD. Technically if we get a decent breakout we will watch a potential retrace around 32500 support and resistance. Trade safe, Joe.
ULong
by JoeChampion
19
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Waiting on FOMCGood day everyone. We have an important day ahead with FOMC just around the corner. With that being said I expect the market to be a bit messy before/during the event, so I advise everyone to stay away from any trading today unless you have something clear on your chart and you use proper risk. Coming back to GOLD, the recent rally is now taking a small breath and it is pulling back a bit. The trend remains unchanged for now. We are expecting this correction to end soon and we can see the price continuing towards the upside. One level to watch is the confluence between the 4H OB (blue - highlighted on the chart ) and the important zone on the FIB level located between 70.5%-78%. That's the area where we will be looking for a bullish reaction and could also give us a MACD crossover. If anything occurs before that, we will be looking at the 1H trendline to see if we get a clean breakout and a small correction to go long. We can see the market resuming the bullish trend and eventually breaking the $2010 higher high. Watch this space for future updates, as we will be posting lower TF potential setups. Trade with care.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by financialflagship
2
DXY Outlook 24th March 2023The US FOMC decision to hike rates by 25bps, taking the US interest rates to 5% saw the DXY spike downward from the 103 price area down to the 102 round number support level. This was partly due to the decision being priced in and also the likelihood that markets were considering the possibility of a slowdown of rate hikes from the FOMC due to the banking crisis. However, the DXY failed to break below the 102 level and has since bounced to retest 102.65 which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. With the current price action, if the price remains below 102.70, it is likely that the DXY could continue with the downward trend, trading lower to retest the immediate support and round number level of 102.
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
2
KEY TOP WATCH $QQQ Equilibrium Pattern Tomorrow - QQQ equilibrium pattern is going to be key break for which direction market is going the next couple days, - XLF KRE bear break to new lows will break QQQ equilibrium bear and then drag SPY down even more. - Yellen flip flop - no deposit guarantee yesterday to today it will be. (the more they flip flop back and forth the more we see them as less confident) - SOXX / SMH semi sector also helping QQQ with such a strong move up, QQQ bear break will likely mark a temporary top on this sector. need to see NVDA drop too.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ArcadiaTrading
🔥 Bitcoin On Fire After FOMC: Bottom Is In!Recently I've been talking a lot about Bitcoin and my expectation it's following some kind of Elliot Wave pattern since January. In my most recent analysis I said that I expected the 4th wave to bottom between $26,5k - $25k. BTC bottomed around $26,6k, close enough! In my eyes, the bottom is in and we're likely going to continue our way up. Remember that the day after the FOMC meeting is generally the day of the "real" reaction to the meeting, as opposed to the immediate reaction after the new interest rates get announced. In the short-term, I'm looking at $28,5k and $29k as my targets. In the longer-term, there's an argument to be made that we can reach well over $35k, as per my Elliot Wave analysis above.
Long
by FieryTrading
15