USD/JPY What's in store for NY Friday Session?OANDA:USDJPY
Will the unemployment economic numbers push UJ further down? or just another reason for the dollar to get back to its' bullish ways?
Trade well
FOMC
DOLLAR INDEX LONG TO $108📈The DXY is holding up nicely & still expecting a correction towards $108-$109 in the mid term. We can possibly experience fluctuation & volatility, which will be used to take out possible early buyers, but as long as you have a decent sized account, you'll be able to weather the volatility👌
The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 25BPS yesterday, so this should strengthen the Dollar in the short to mid term.
Drop a like/follow if you agree or let me know your bias✅
FOMC and the Tech squeezeAll in the video, just wanted to update where I think we're going in the next few days to week. Right now I think SPX over 4600 is very probable, that would hit the monthly BB and daily together. It would also give room for tech to have a final squeeze up to it's gap area....
XAUUSD (Gold): Feel confident selling nowBeen watching Gold for days, trying to work things out.
I think we'll see another push up from DXY following FOMC hawkishness last night, it's dancing around the 50% Fib retracement from the last move, this would be positive for gold.
With gold, I think we just got a local double top, but generally struggling at current levels, after failing to make a new high, AUD export data not great, also linked to gold.
I'm expecting an initial fall down to around 1937 (then could move further back to 1910 / 1900), but does need monitoring closely, as has been super volatile and overall direction still unclear to me atm from here.
I think a DXY push will see me hit this initial TP and then let's see what happens from there...
I'll wait for NY session to give me more clues
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMCFOMC – KOG Report:
This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
On Sunday’s KOG Report we said the report would only be applicable for the first half of the week due to FOMC today. We did well with this so will stick with some of the levels from the report for today. We’re going to keep this FOMC Report short this time as we’re not likely to be trading again until tomorrow. For those who are keen to get involved, we’ve highlighted the key levels to look for a reaction in price. The daily is showing a potential swing where a bullish move here can take it up towards testing the 2000 level and slightly above. For that reason, we’ve given the level on the break up towards 2005-8 with the initial hurdle being the 1980-85 level.
On the flip, 1975-80 is another level to keep an eye on. We’re not publishing the daily bias today, but this was yesterdays bearish below level with a rejection around here potentially leading to price first attacking the 1945 region and below the 1930-35 order region which was our initial target for the short trades.
Illustrated on the chart is the potential path, obviously with the swings, spikes and volatility expected please take it as a guide. We’ll only be looking for extreme levels in Camelot and that, as we said above is probably going to be in the sessions ahead.
If you’re new to trading, the trade will come after the event. Please try not to get involved in the pre-event price action, it’s going to chop you in the range before they make the move. Best practice is to come back to the markets tomorrow and look for a clean set up.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Levels discussed during the webinar 27th July27th July 2023
DXY: Break below 100.74 could get to 100.40 and 100 round number
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6265 SL 25 TP 50
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6845 SL 20 TP 50
USDJPY: Sell 140.35 SL 30 TP 110
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3030 SL 40 TP 100
EURUSD: Buy 1.1150 SL 30 TP 100 (hawkish ECB)
USDCHF: Break below 0.8560 big downside to 0.8380 (choppy, dependent on DXY)
USDCAD: Sell 1.3150 SL 20 TP 50
Gold: Above 1974 could trade up to 1986
The unpredictability of the FOMC rates decisionWhat you would learn in university: An interest rate hike increases demand, which would lead to higher prices.
What you actually see in the markets: The impact on price is not only dependent on the interest rate decision but also the message and sentiment during the press conference, priced in scenarios, future market expectations, economic projections, current price trends, global environment...
Overnight, the FOMC has just taken rates to a 22-year high at 5.50% and indicated further increases in September and possibly November (data dependent), and yet the immediate reaction is further weakness in the DXY.
Over the previous 6 rate decision releases (5 hikes and 1 hold), the reaction on the DXY has been mixed, either spiking up briefly before fading lower or showing little to no movement.
Scalping the news event is getting harder and potentially less profitable (unlike back in the years with Chair Bernanke). The approach short-medium traders should consider adopting is to let the noise clear out and only look to get their trades in days after the event.
What do you think?
BluetonaFX - DXY US Dollar Fragile After FOMCHi Traders!
The US dollar is showing signs of fragility after the expected 25 basis point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and the FOMC press conference today due to the ongoing high inflation issues in the US economy.
This was reflected in the price action on the DXY 1D chart. The market hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 101.590 to continue the bearish impulsive wave, and the US dollar index might continue down and go back under the 100 level to target the support level at 99.578.
There is further data out of the US tomorrow, and if we get further bad news from the US tomorrow, we might possibly get the break below 100.
Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps.
We appreciate your support.
BluetonaFX
🔥 Bitcoin FOMC Bullish Reaction: Wait For ConfirmationThe FOMC meeting has just concluded, and the FED has raised the interest rates with 25 basis points. Since the initial reaction is bullish, I'd like to explore the idea that we're going to see a strong switch in trend from this point onwards.
The dotted diagonal resistance is currently the main area that BTC has to break through. Be patience for the break out before considering a bullish entry.
Target at the July highs, stop just below the resistance line.
Day Trade Market Condition jul 26, 2023 FOMCDay Trade Market Condition jul 26, 2023
levels for NQ ES CL BTC
watch the table left side for trade, right side for trend
FOMC
GBPUSD rebounds from trendline support as FOMC looms The pound has enjoyed a day of upside, as the continued struggles in driving down inflation come back into play once again despite recent GBP weakness. The GBPUSD pair looks particularly interesting given the impending FOMC meeting. Markets currently price in a 98% chance of a rate hike today, meaning that the dollar volatility will likely be driven more by the outlook for future hikes than anything else. The pricing for another hike before year-end stands at 35%, with 65% expecting that we will be one and done today. A nod towards another likely hike this year could provide strength for the dollar, while a more dovish stance could bring fresh dollar weakness.
The GBPUSD pair has rebounded significantly from trendline support, which has been accompanied by the 61.8% Fibonacci support level. The wider bullish trend therefore looks likely to persist. As such, further strength looks likely from here. A break through Fibonacci and trendline support would be required to start building a more bearish picture.
Nasdaq Trade idea - FOMC Meeting FOMC INTEREST RATE HIKE TONIGHT
Expecting some heavy volatile @ 8pm SAST - possibility of some bearish takeover depending on how the market digests the meeting.
Hawkish FOMC, new extension lower for BTC, or?Bitcoin analysis with FMOC to come
Today's focus: Bitcoin
Pattern – Support break
Possible targets – 30,345 US – 27,500 DS
Support – 29,092 minor
Resistance – 30,344 – 31,360
With the FOMC coming out tomorrow morning and rates expected to rise by 25 points, will we see straight sets with the Fed still remaining hawkish? With Bitcoin looking rather vulnerable at the moment, could that set up a new push back to the main trendline?
Or if the Fed is more dovish, could that reignite buyer interests and move price back above the 30k level? Bitcoin broke support recently, and the worry for us is that the market could be looking for any reason to continue lower. A stronger USD could just be enough.
That’s the primary point of discussion in today’s video update, but we have also put in mentions of the USD index and gold as they both sit in inappropriate situations atm, with the USD starting to struggle in its comeback rally while gold continues to push at a new continuation.
Have a great day and good trading.
FOMC 26th JulyFOMC is upon us once again which means a high volatility event to prepare for.
BTC has fallen out of its 32 day mini range and is looking to close below its local low of ~29.5k. This gets the alarm bells ringing as there is a large FVG waiting below to be filled. A high volatility event such as FOMC can often help in achieving this but it's important to plan for each eventuality. You must plan for what the market does, not what you want it to do.
In green we have the bullish buying opportunities I have established, one is a simple range midpoint reaction play. I would like to see a wick below and a reclaim before targeting those range highs once more.
If that is not the case another bullish buying opportunity would be the daily bullish OB at 26.5k. This would allow the vast majority of the FVG to be filled and BTC could continue a rally towards local highs and potentially beyond.
For a bearish scenario, if price were to continue the downtrend past the midpoint with no significant reaction, this would prompt me to target either the bullish OB, or the range low.
These are the key areas for me, there really isn't a lot of good R:R trades in-between in my opinion. At least on the 1D timeframe.
TLT - is now the time to start accumulating?Long duration treasury ETF's have long been touted as hedges against risk and inflation. However, treasury prices and rates have an inverse relationship. When the US Treasury issues new bonds during a rate hiking cycle, it depresses the prices of the long duration treasuries within these ETFs. Conversely, when rates reach their peak and subsequently start to decline, these ETFs will hold treasuries with higher rates than the newly issued ones. This explains why we see TLT price increasing in a low rate environment and decreasing in a rising rate environment.
If we are near the conclusion of this rate hiking cycle we should see a little more consolidation in TLT, followed by price increase. I have been and will continue to add to my position anytime we are close to $100 during this consolidation. I'll begin to take profit $112-114 and then re-evaluation market conditions.
🔥 Bitcoin In Danger 🚨 Bearish Divergence Playing Out!Last week I made an analysis on BTC's bearish divergence on the 3-day chart. Seeing the bearish price action we got recently, it seems that this bearish divergence is playing out well.
In my eyes, it's very likely that BTC will go down from here onwards. Next target is the dotted purple support line.
Seeing there's another FOMC interest announcement tomorrow, Bitcoin is in danger of breaking through said support in case the market doesn't like tomorrow's meeting. In that case, my expectation would be that the top for 2023 is in.
All eyes on tomorrow.
BluetonaFX - SPX Approaching All-Time HighHi Traders!
We are approaching the all-time high on the S&P 500, and traders are eagerly anticipating tomorrow's Federal Reserve interest rate decision along with the FOMC minutes meeting announcement.
Looking at the technical price action on the 1W chart, the market has been in a steady bull market since October 2022. We have drawn the ascending price channel on the chart for you to see.
Before the all-time high at 4818.62 (the apex level), there is a resistance level at 4637.30. This level is key because there was a price rejection at this level 16 months ago, and we have not been above it since then.
If we get a break and close above 4637.30, then the apex level at 4818.62 is the next target, and if that breaks, then we will be trading in record-breaking territory.
On the other side, if 4637.30 holds and there is not a break and close above this level, then the bull market we have had for the past 16 months may be coming to an end, and we may get a pullback to the long-term support level at 4325.28.
Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps.
We appreciate your continued support!
BluetonaFX
AUDUSD will buyer momentum continue?Today's focus: AUDUSD
Pattern – HL
Possible targets – 68.11 – 68.85
Support – 67.17
Resistance – 67.75
Could we see further upside from the AUDUSD? Currently price is bouncing off short-term support. This could continue if some of this week's key news goes in favour of risk markets. The USD has had a solid run recently but could any hints at future rant holds set off a new pullback? If so this could be fuel for the AUD to continue its push.
Australian CPI is also due out on Thursday, its forecast to come in slightly lower Could a miss also help drive buying?
For now, we will continue to watch price as it holds off short-term support with a new HL and see if it can continue to push higher reclaiming some of last week's lost ground.
Have a great day and good trading.
🔥 Bitcoin Indecision Ahead Of FOMC MeetingComing Wednesday there's another FOMC meeting by the FED. Here they will announce what the new interest rates are going to be. While the FED paused last meeting, the expectation is that they will announce another rate hike.
My expectation is that BTC will continue to consolidate around the current area, while traders are patiently waiting for the FED's decision. Furthermore, BTC's volatility is extremely low, which indicates that it's preparing for a big move, either up or down. See below for the volatility analysis, currently 3 days in a row extreme low volatility:
As seen on the chart, BTC is trading at a very strong area of resistance. The top resistance is an exact copy of the bottom support, creating a parallel channel. With the stock market severely overbought, the market risk is likely to the downside.
As long as BTC stays above the yellow support line, the intermediate trend is bullish. A break below this trend line could signal that ~31.8k was the 2023 top.
Are you bullish or bearish ahead of the FOMC? Share your thoughts 🙏
Harmonically, US Interest Rates are Headed Toward 35%The US Interest Rate chart has been trading within a Descending Broadening Wedge and has recently broken out of the wedge. The target for a pattern like this is typically back to the inception of the pattern, which in this case would be 20%; but we also have an additional variable here, and that's the Potential Logscale Harmonic Formation we've made here. If we are to treat the action of this chart as we'd treat any other chart, then we'd expect that once B gets broken, we'd get an accelerated move all the way up to the Harmonic Completion of a Bearish Shark, which would land us at the 1.13/1.618 Harmonic Confluence Zone up at around 34-35%
There have been previous instances where Harmonics have had a predictive quality over data like this, such as the accelerated liquidity exit out of the reverse repo facility, the bond yield charts on multiple occasions, and the US Inflation Rate Charts. Which can all be seen in the related ideas tab if you are skeptical of my use of Harmonic Patterns in this context.
UJ Double bottom neckline 139.422 After breaking strong resistance at 139.422, market trying to accept UJ new support price at 139.422.
Next resistance level would be 140.906. Would UJ uptrend lasts before FOMC meeting next week at JULY 26?
Gold Outlook: Vulnerable Dollar and Promising Upside PotentialHey Traders, In tomorrow's upcoming trading session, our keen focus will be on XAUUSD, the trading pair of gold against the US dollar. We are closely monitoring this market for a potential buying opportunity within the price range of approximately 1940. From a technical standpoint, XAUUSD is currently engaged in an upward trend and undergoing a consolidation phase, gradually approaching the key level of support and resistance at 1940.
Furthermore, it is important to consider the fundamental factors influencing this market. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated a softer performance, implying that future monetary policies are likely to adopt a more dovish stance. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) also displayed a similar softness. These factors combined have generated an increased appeal for gold and cryptocurrencies among investors.
Given this context, the convergence of favorable technical indicators and supportive fundamental factors enhances the attractiveness of gold and cryptocurrencies as investment options. Thus, we anticipate a heightened interest from investors in exploring opportunities within the XAUUSD market, particularly around the 1940 zone.
