Keep Calm and 4k OnBears don't get to convinced a sell off is near.
Bulls will be buying the dip for the entire next year.
4K is the level, premium the harvest.
----
In this idea I present to you a level everyone should be aware of because my prediction is that we will end 2023 around 4k.
I was browsing the SPX options chain for 2023 and 4k is by far the highest open interest across all major expires like quad witching.
This shouldn't be a surprise as it has been a magnet since the Archegos margin call.
I jokingly call it the Archegos Gap.
But after extensive research into SLR and ON Reverse Repos it is also a major level the Fed shifted policy in 2021.
Every directional shift higher or to lower from 4k has correlation with the Archegos Gap.
Most notable are:
Inverted Yield Curves
Hyper Inflation
Debt
DXY
The market is starting to wake up to the idea equities will be flat for the entire year.
FLAT
EURUSD - Massive 22% crash to 0.82! Lifetime opportunity!
The EURUSD is going up right now, but it looks like a dead cat bounce rally. It was a nice short-term bull market! We need to focus on the main direction of the trend, which is bearish.
I think EURUSD will go up to 1.06311, where there is an extremely strong resistance that should be a reversal point.
This is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to short EUR/USD!Follow my calls.
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, we need a final impulse wave to the downside to complete a major impulse wave. Typically, wave 1 serves as strong resistance, which in this case is 1.06311.
1.06311 is a strong resistance because it is the 2020 COVID swing low + wave (1) + 0.382 FIB retracement (wave 3).
You can take profit at the previous POC of the triangle from 2000–2002 (0.88691) or at the previous swing low from 2000 (0.82311).
This is not a trade setup because there is no stop loss, expected duration, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post professional trade setups elsewhere. This is just an analysis.
I am more than happy to provide you with these analyses, so if you like it, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Tell me in the comment section what you think about EURUSD. It looks like everyone is now extremely bullish, which is definitely not a good sign! The majority is usually wrong.
Stay strong!
Bitcoin Bogdanoff - Can this pattern predict the bottom?
The Bogdanoff twins claimed they participated in helping Satoshi Nakamoto build Bitcoin. Is this true or not? Let me know in the comment section right now!
The question is, can this weekly chart's falling wedge and bullish flag predict Bitcoin's bottom? I think it's definitely possible and maybe even likely!
Bitcoin is still very weak compared to the stock market or gold. A lot of people hate Bitcoin and spit on it as well.
This is one of the possible Elliott Wave counts that can predict the bottom as well. As you can see, the previous impulse wave from 2018–2021 was pretty much a textbook wave. What traders usually do is wait for a bearish retracement to buy the DIP. In other words, they wait for the ABC correction to enter the market.
In the current situation, the ABC correction is still developing, and we need at least one more huge swing low to complete this pattern. At this moment, it looks like an impulse wave and we don't want to buy it.
The 0.618 FIB of the previous impulse wave, as well as the start of the POC on the volume profile, make 10 300 USD a strong support.I would not be surprised if the market takes liquidity below the previous swing low of 9825 USD.
I really want a bull market because everyone in crypto is toxic, and of course I don't like it. I like it when the majority of people are happy. Also, I want to open an investment position on bitcoin, but not now.
Maybe the bottom is in and we will go up from here, but I doubt it. The likelihood is now around 25%.I am waiting for the main yellow trendline to be broken before I can change the probability to 70%.
If you disagree with me, let me know in the comment section why. I look forward to your comments!
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Ethereum is bullish! | Bull flag is ready!
This bullish flag is absolutely ready for a breakout! I am bullish on ETH, and I opened a quick long position. I will exit at the resistance, and after that, I am going to short ETH!
As you can see, the price is in this rectangle range, and usually the market is ranging 75% of the time, so there is a huge chance that the bears will step in at the resistance! I recommend shorting ETH later.
In my opinion, there is currently only a 25% chance that this rectangle pattern will be destroyed by the bulls on the first try. I expect a strong rejection and will go back to the POC that you can see on the right side of the chart.
There are a lot of stop losses above this flag, so I believe the market wants the liquidity.
From the Elliott Wave perspective, it looks like a corrective tripple zigzag pattern (WXYXZ), because we have an overlap between the major waves, which is not a good sign for the bulls.
This overlap is a problem. It shows the weakness, and I don't like it. Let me know in the comment section what you think!
We have a double bottom pattern on ETH. The neckline needs to be broken to confirm this pattern, but it's not going to be easy.
I don't know what about you, but I am now temporarily bullish on ETH, and I have my orders set to close long and open short at the resistance.
I wish you a lot of fun during your trades!
I post trade setups privately. This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing.
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Bitcoin + Crypton (CRP) - This hidden GEM will 100x!
Crypton (CRPUSD) is a hidden GEM with a 100x profit potential. I recommend buying this coin before it's listed on exchanges!
The current rank is only #895 on coinmarketcap; that's why there is a huge opportunity for growth!
This coin is extremely powerful, not like others. Focus on low-cap coins with great potential.
After purchasing this coin, it is important that you inform your friends and others about it so that the price rises and the opportunity for massive gains increases rapidly.
Crypton (CRPUSD) chart: The coin is holding its value extremely well during this massive bear market. The technical analysis is very strong!
----------------------------------------
Coin: Crypton - CRPUSD
Potential profit: 100x (10,000%)
CoinMarketCap rank: #895
Crypton current price: 0.64 USD
Market cap: 4,736,720 USD
Volume in 24 hours: 222,977 USD
----------------------------------------
What is CRYPTON?
Crypton (CRPUSD) is the monetary unit and digital currency of the Utopia P2P ecosystem. It is a decentralized cryptocurrency where transactions are instant, irreversible, and completely untraceable. When Cryptons are sent, the Peer-to-Peer network of Utopia confirms the transaction immediately, without delay. There is no centralized, or decentralized, authority capable of reversing a transaction on the Utopia network. uWallet balances of Cryptons cannot be seized or even identified by any authority. Crypton transactions are completely anonymous and cannot be tracked on the blockchain. Only the sender and receiver have any record of a transaction. Newly mined Cryptons are distributed every 15min block to nodes helping to maintain the network which meet the minimum requirements.
What is UTOPIA?
Utopia is an ecosystem designed to protect the privacy of interactions and to preserve the security and confidentiality of each participant's personal data. The network went live on November 18, 2019, and is supported by the people who use it, based on Peer-to-Peer (P2P) technology. With no central server involved in data transmission or storage, it has no single point of failure and is truly decentralized. Each node, including your Utopia client, transmits network data using secure Curve25519 high-speed elliptic curve cryptography. The data transmitted cannot be intercepted by any third-party, only the recipient is able to read it. All personal account data is stored on a Utopia user's local device in an encrypted file using 256-bit-AES encryption. Utopia enables users to bypass online censorship and firewalls, allowing them to freely communicate and interact with whomever they want, whenever they want. Users can privately send instant text and voice messages, transfer files, play games and create censorship-resistant group chats, channels, and websites, as well as make and accept payments denominated in Utopia's fully integrated digital currency, Crypton.
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ETH - The most bearish pattern is confirmed!
This is a very bearish 3-wave corrective pattern (WXY) double ZigZag. This pattern is now confirmed, and ETH could drop significantly!
It's not looking good for ETH at all. The bear market is strong, and ETH can potentially reach levels below 1000 USD.
The most important yellow trendline has been destroyed by the bulls, and the bears are back in full force!
I recommend longing ETH at the 0.618 FIB for quick gains. This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
The ECB (European Central Bank) recently warned us about a massive crypto crash; this could be true.
1235 USD is a key level, and the bulls weren't able to sustain it! This level was important because it was the peak of the first wave (W). The possibility of an impulse wave has been invalidated for good.
I hope you guys are doing great and take care!
You must look at my ideas about Bitcoin, Gold, EURUSD, and Oil in the related section down below.
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Examining pennant & flat correction possibility (revised)Some errors in Elliott count were addressed. No substantial change in the conclusion.
In the previous ideas, we examined bearish possibilities.
BTC 1H Short-trading idea
Going to form a Bearish Flat?
BTC in compression
Where is the top of the Inverse H&S-like structure?
First of all, this analysis is coherent with the above scenarios.
So we may have a short position from around 17390, or we could make entry at 17200, 17400-17650, while recommended SL is over 17800 (manage your own risk).
Although arguably BTC is in compression, the bearish movement will likely resume - let's check this hypothesis.
I laid out a tapering pennant to measure the price conversatio.
(i) Corrective Wave of Elliott wave theory
Although there are a variety of corrective waves in EW theory, a flat would fit most appropriately for our presupposition.
A flat correction wave comprises three waves, having 3, 3, and 5 minor wave structures, respectively.
Wave A was an irregular correction, and wave B was a typical zigzag with a steep decline.
Then wave C. Is this complete? Let's see in deep.
(ii) Examining the current formation
Waves B and C shaped a beautiful Anti-Gartley. If this holds, the upside is limited; around 17200 would be the ceiling.
On the other side, pennants see fakeouts, not unusually.
In this case, the five-wave movements of wave C might be incomplete so far, and a new high of 17400-17650 would be marked instead.
A flat setup as above is eventually complete if the price turns around at either high.
Even though this shape could be a "bullish" flat, not a bearish one, the pennant is a sign of trend continuation.
So the follow-through of such a bullish pennant could end up in a mere pullback.
Bitcoin - A new Twitter coin! Elon Musk, Lightning Network!
Bitcoin is still very bearish because the current price is below the main trendline and below the swing low from June 2022. I am not buying bitcoin at this moment because I feel like it is too risky to catch the bottom like this.
But if Bitcoin breaks above 21,480 USD, then I will do more research about the stock market and gold , and I may open an investment position with a target of around 150,000 USD. I would rather buy bitcoin at a price above 21,480 USD than at the current price of 17,000 USD. I don't know what you think; let me know in the comment section!
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, there are two possible scenarios. The first is that the huge dump was only a WXYXZ tripple zigzag correction, which is unusual but can be true. The second scenario is that this was a strong impulse wave, or the fifth wave may still be in progress. This would be very bearish , and Bitcoin could drop to 6,000 USD.
On the chart, you can see strong levels on the road to a new all-time high. Expect a strong reaction here. Use these strong levels for your trading strategy.
I am not interested in Bitcoin at this moment, but I do trade bitcoin intraday. This is my opinion on Bitcoin; I hope you like it!
Now let's take a look at the Twitter coin.
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Twitter coin - LOGO - Users could buy coffee and checkout at Starbucks, or send remittances across the world using just their Twitter app.
What Does A Twitter Coin Mean for Dogecoin And Bitcoin?
-The crypto community is currently speculating what the alleged revelation could mean for Musk’s favorite coin, Dogecoin (DOGE) but also Bitcoin . At first glance, a proprietary coin from Twitter is bad for DOGE and also BTC , as it would eliminate the need to integrate both cryptocurrencies.
-However, the leak of the API could indicate that Musk is not just focusing on one cryptocurrency, but multiple. DOGE and Bitcoin could thus be complementary to the Twitter Coin. Thus, the crypto industry as a whole could benefit from a crypto wallet integration from Twitter .
-Elon Musk had shared as recently as Nov. 27 his intention for digital payments to be integrated into what he calls Twitter 2.0 – “The Everything App.”
-Although Musk did not mention Dogecoin in his tweet, the DOGE price skyrocketed. The community apparently speculated that DOGE was part of Musk’s crypto plans for Twitter .
-Moreover, rumors about Twitter’s crypto wallet plans surfaced already back in October after Wong speculated in an Oct. 27 tweet that the company had already begun work on a wallet prototype.
Does Musk Have Lightning Network On His Radar?
-Jack Mallers, CEO of Strike, commented a few days ago that Twitter could be become a payment app by adopting Bitcoin .
-Mallers said that by adopting the Lightning Network, Twitter can be a payments business and has the “opportunity to build payment experiences which traditional Twitter can’t.”
-“Because they cannot get into the business of debt and all the regulatory and fixed costs. Chase has that business on lock and now that is not a requirement anymore,” Maller continued.
OIL to 62! This has never happened in history!
USOIL is breaking down! The trendline from 2020 has been destroyed by the bulls recently, and we can free fall to 61.76 without any problems.
On the monthly chart, you can see a falling wedge, and all patterns should be retested. This is a chance to retest the wedge on the breakout point at 61.76 or even lower at the trendline.
This chart is totally brutal, and I am very happy to see such huge volatility. What goes up should come down in the same way.
Oil was traded at negative levels in 2020, which has never happened before in history. Why did it crash? There are a lot of speculations. For example, they wanted to wipe out all the long positions on the futures market, so it was a huge manipulation. Why not? Tell me in the comment section right now!
The breakout point of the trendline + the POC of the previous structure + double bottom + high liquidity zone make 61.76 a strong resistance.
No one is providing you with such a strong and detailed analysis as me. Don't forget to share this analysis!
If you do not buy oil at 61.76, then I am not saying anything! There are lots of stop-loss orders below this swing low that need to be taken.
If we take a look at the recent 2 monthly candles, we can see "shooting star" + "bearish engulfing" candles. This combination is extremely bearish; the likelihood of further decline is high.
Check out my related ideas about GOLD and EURUSD in the related section down below! It is critical; you must see it!
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GOLD - Wall Street doesn't want you to know! Huge dump.
GOLD is currently very close to an extremely strong level, which is the previous swing high from August 2022!
The market will probably want liquidity above this swing high. I expect price to break this level and touch the top of the parallel ascending channel.
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, a classic impulse wave is almost done. This is a simple pattern that may work in confluence with other indicators.
What do you think about gold? Let me know in the comment section, because I look forward to your opinions!
I recommend you short gold once we break the previous swing high or once we touch the top of the channel again. Of course, you can set a limit order or wait for some reversal pattern at the critical point on lower timeframes.
I hope this analysis will help you with your trading decisions! Keep in mind that this is not a trade setup. There is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
Where should you place your profit target? You can use my level, which is the breakout point of the previous trendline (1681.94). You can also long gold here in the future once the price reaches this important point.
Wall Street doesn't want you to know that 99.9% of gold is paper gold in the form of contracts. You may say that the physical supply of gold is limited, which can be true. But they can "print" an infinite amount of paper gold backed by fiat.
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Bitcoin - The bears will crash BTC again! (Great opportunity)
From November 21 to November 24, we had a pretty nice uptrend. It lasted only 3 days, and the structure of the uptrend is bearish.
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, it was an ABC correction because I can see only 7 waves, which is a typical correction with an extended wave A.
Bitcoin is the most bearish asset, and it's absolutely a pleasure to short Bitcoin or Ethereum!
A new week started, and Bitcoin broke out of the symmetrical triangle pretty hard.
October and November are extremely bullish months for Bitcoin, but this time we dumped, and Bitcoin continues in free fall.
The right question is now: When will we reach 10,000? not if we reach 10,000. After we reach 10K, I think we will have a massive bounce back to 15K or so. Make sure to follow me so you do not miss important information on this expected bounce!
If you want to trade bitcoin, the best strategy is "short only." So wait for pullbacks and shorts.
I expect the ultimate bottom for Bitcoin to be between 6500 and 10300 USD.
I am very happy to provide you with these analyses; stay strong!
XRP - When moon? I'll tell you when...
I will tell you, when the moon is for XRP, but first, let's take a look at the technical analysis.
On the chart, you can see two major downtrending trendlines, and the price is below them. The bears are in full control, and I cannot be bullish at this point.
The previous uptrend from June 13 to September 19 was a 3-wave structure (ABC). This suggests a corrective counter-move in the main direction of the trend. The trend is indeed bearish.
I want to see an impulsive structure before even considering becoming a bull on XRP. What's more, the price is printing a head and shoulders pattern, and the price is currently forming the left shoulder.
Basically, it's a shorting opportunity if you want to catch the local top. Or wait for a breakout below the neckline for a confirmation. Your profit target is at the bottom of the parallel channel on the LOG scale.
XRP can drop by another 50% or 80% to 0.1 USDT next year. It's very likely, in my opinion.
If we take a look at the MACD indicator, we can see that the bulls are losing steam on the histogram, and the bearish crossover can occur very soon!
So when moon for XRP? There is no indication from whales that they are buying XRP at this moment. It looks like they want to buy cheaper XRP at 0.1 USD. I think XRP can moon next year in 2023, it's possible, why not.
Happy trading!
Bitcoin - 1 million USD (You have never seen this before)
You see this ascending parallel channel for the first time! The channel is projected from the start of the bull market in 2018 to the end of the bull market in 2021.
The road to 1 million will be full of traps, liquidations, scams, and frauds. But if you are ready for a roller coaster, you can hold your bitcoins in cold wallets such as Trezor, where they will be frozen to death.
This is a projection because, of course, no one can predict the halving dates. I want to show you how Bitcoin can behave on the road to 1 million USD.
This parallel channel should be sustainable over time; there is not too much pressure, and we can reach 1 million in 2037. But for now, we are in 2022, and the current price is 16,500 USD.
As you can clearly see, Bitcoin could reach 6,500 USD next year to touch the bottom of the parallel channel. I don't see any problem with that.
Who will get rekt after FTX? Let me know in the comment section right now!
Bitcoin is extremely volatile and dangerous asset, they said. If you bought the peak, then yes, it's dangerous.
Thanks for your attention!
Ethereum - 28% crash is almost ready! (descending triangle)
On ETH, the current market structure is extremely bearish. We can spot a descending triangle projection on the 4h chart, so for now the probabilities are for it to go lower.
I believe the market wants to wipe out all stop loss orders above the swing high at 1234 USD, which is also at the 0.618 FIB. This is a great level to open a short position on futures.
I will short all pumps on ETH until we reach 882 USD, the previous swing low from June 18th, 2022. Ethereum is pretty weak compared to other altcoins, and I am not surprised at all.
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, the A wave is a 3-wave corrective structure. The bears are strong, and they want to push the price lower.
Crypto will continue in the biggest crash in history. ETH can reach 400 USD next year, and BTC can reach 10 000 USD next year.
I am naturally bearish on this chart, because why not? What is bullish here, let me know in the comment section!
This is a brief and clear update. I hope you like it! I am not falling for this mini uptrend on the 1h chart.
Bitcoin - Cheat sheet (road to 3k, levels)
Everyone will call you a cheater for these levels because you can very well predict massive short-term bounces! I will never give you a zone. I will give you levels that are exact to the dollar!
You can use these levels if you are a swing or intra-day trader, but also if you are an investor and you want to buy Bitcoin cheap. These levels are for everyone!
I expect a massive bounce from 10254 USD. You can use this level for a 30% - 50% profit with a stop loss of 8700 USD. You can be sure that I will be a buyer at this level. I don't want to miss this opportunity.
The question is, how long do we have to wait for prices to reach these levels? It doesn't matter; it can be this year, next year, or even in a few years. The sooner the better because you probably do not want Bitcoin to be stuck in some range between 14k and 20k for another year, but it's possible.
I believe 6435 is very likely if bitcoin fails to hold the 0.618 FIB. A simple pattern for Bitcoin is: if BTC fails to hold the 10254 area, then 6435 is the next support. If BTC fails to hold the 6435 area, then 3516 is the next support. If Bitcoin fails to hold 3516, then we can see a huge capitulation wick below 3000 with strong buying activity from whales. If BTC fails to hold 3000, then sorry, you have been scammed, and maybe BSV is the real Bitcoin. But I don't want to speculate on this topic of BTC vs. BSV at this moment.
The previous all-time high, set in 2017, is now extremely powerful: 19798. We can go here in the short term before continuing in the dump. So do not fall for any fake pumps. The DXY index will go much higher after a correction.
Many stop-loss orders have been placed below the previous swing low: 9825. I believe the market is going to wipe out all orders below this level.
I wish you massive profits at these levels! I don't want to wish you good luck because trading is not about luck.
19798: 2017 ATH resistance (major)
12468: Start of the volume area high (VAH) + swing high (minor)
10254: 0.618 LOG Fibonacci retracement (major)
9343: Point of Control (POC) + GAP (major)
7293: GAP (minor)
6435: POC of the previous triangle + swing low (major)
5303: Volume profile node + triangle 4h POC (minor)
3782: POC of the previous triangle + swing low: (minor)
3156: Ultimate bottom of the impulse wave: (major)
Bitcoin - Secret Invisible Pattern!
This is a secret parallel channel that absolutely no one is talking about because it's visible only to experienced traders.
Don't be a noob and buy at the 0.618 FIB + 1.618 FIB + channel bottom like a pro (if the price reaches this level)! Or open a leverage position on futures here.
Bitcoin is the most hated asset in the world, and everybody spits on it. The funny thing is that while the dollar has been weak in recent weeks, bitcoin has been even weaker.
As you can see, we have plenty of room to go down into the abyss. I don't know if the price will go up or down; I don't really care. I am mainly a day trader, and I post on TradingView only long-term views on crypto. But I have to admit I will be interested in Bitcoin once it reaches 3k for a long-term investment with part of my funds.
Setup your orders to buy Bitcoin at 10k for a massive 50% profit, because I expect a massive short-term bull market from this level!
Bitcoin is basically free falling; it's an absolute disaster, and the bear party with honey is awesome.
Regards, Tolberti.
DOGE - insane 83% drop, here is why!
Doge pumped a lot, but it looks like a scam pump to me. There are no buyers at all. I think this uptrend was fueled by stop-loss triggers and liquidations on the futures market.
At this moment, the uptrend looks like a major ABC correction. Clearly, we can see a three-wave structure. Also, the bulls failed to hold the wave A swing high at 0.089, which is a sign of weakness.
Why would anyone want to buy DOGE at this moment? I don't see any bullish patterns. Better open a short position on futures , but look for setups on lower timeframes. This analysis is on the weekly chart.
No worries, you can buy DOGE at the 0.618 FIB for quick gains. That's exactly what my plan is for DOGE!
On the chart you can see a projection for a parallel channel . This channel is amazing, because you can buy at the bottom of the channel for quick gains.
A 83% drop is possible, and I will not be surprised if we go even lower. This mini-uptrend is not healthy.
On the chart, you can see three strong supports: 0.618 FIB, POC1, and POC2. This is incredible because there will be a lot of money to be made at these levels!
Let's be honest; everyone bought DOGE because of that pump, and now everyone is trapped. Sell DOGE while the price is high, it's not too late.
If something pumps in one week and then dumps back, then it's obviously a fake move, and it will be punished by a massive crash.
Can DOGE drop by 83%? Let me know in the comment section right now!
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Tron TRX - 51% crash very soon!
It's a great opportunity to short TRX on the futures market. You can short TRX on almost all exchanges. So it's very positive!
The technical analysis of Tron looks very bearish. Descending triangles are likely to breakdown with a 60% pullback rate (retest) before continuing lower.
The uptrend from 2020 to 2021 looks like a three-wave structure. It's not looking good to me. It's not going to be a surprise if TRX crashes even harder than 51%. I want to see a strong impulse wave, but this is not an impulse wave.
This chart indicates that more blood is coming for the crypto market. It's possible!
I expected a strong reaction from the POC of the previous triangle and also from the 0.618 LOG FIB. These levels are ideal for profit taking or a short-term long position.
If you hold TRX, then it can be your last chance to sell it for a pretty good price. Even a 90 percent crash is possible, believe it or not.
But I have to admit that TRX is holding its value pretty well. Unfortunately, the price is compressed in this triangle, and a huge, massive red dildo can be printed very soon!
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Elliott Wave View: MSFT Should Drop After A Flat Is CompletedShort term Elliott Wave View in Microsoft (MSFT) shows an incomplete bearish sequence from 11.22.2021 high favoring further downside. Short term, rally from 10.13.2022 low is unfolding as an expanded flat Elliott Wave structure. Up from 10.13.2022 low, wave (A) ended at 252.62 and pullback in wave (B) ended at 212.24. Wave (C) higher is in progress as a 5 waves impulse structure before the stock turns lower again.
Up from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 231.60 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 223.90. MSFT then rallies again in wave 3 towards 247.97. Internal subdivision of wave 3, it has a shallow wave ((i)) ended at 225.86 and retracement in wave ((ii)) ended at 224.73. From here, rally was strong to 245.59 to complete wave ((iii)). Then a zigzag wave ((iv)) took place ended at 241.20 and last push in wave ((v)) of 3 finished at 247.97. Wave 4 has taken the form of an expanded flat. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 239.13 and rally in wave ((b)) ended at 249.83. Expect wave ((c)) to end soon which also completes wave 4. Afterwards, as far as pivot at 223.90 low stays intact, expect Microsoft to extend higher 1 more leg to complete wave 5 of (C) and the whole flat correction as wave ((B)) before turning lower again.
Bitcoin: 5-year crypto-winter
It's possible that a major bullish cycle has ended and that we're already experiencing a massive crypto-winter.
Interest rates are rising and could reach 15-20% in the coming years. The current rate is 4%. Of course, this is very bad for the stock market and crypto.
The strategy "buy and hold" no longer works; it's probably the worst performing strategy. This strategy is pretty easy; you don't need to do anything but hold and pick the right coins. But yeah, I agree, it can be hard to pick the right coins.
I think the only way to make money in crypto is to learn daytrading or swing trading on the futures market. It's not an easy task for a retail trader.
Bitcoin has failed to hold the most important supports, namely the previous all-time high from 2017 and the blue trendline, which is a disaster.
Let me know in the comment section what you think about crypto-winter and whether it is possible or not. If not, why not?
All altcoins look terrible from a technical perspective; I don't see anything bullish. We can, of course, have a relief rally, but it will be just a dead cat bounce.
Elliott Wave Theory suggests this uptrend is over. We have finished an impulse wave (1, 2, 3, 4, and 5), and now we are looking for a bearish retracement. The impulse wave lasted for 12 years, which is pretty nice. The bear market can last until 2027; I do not see any problem.
It will be a massive capitulation of miners; the mining difficulty may adjust, so there will be less mining power required. It's possible; bitcoin can go down to $3,000. At least the price of graphics cards will go down.
Crypto-winter is a real thing, and this is one possible scenario of how it can look. The next scenario is that we will oscillate between 3K and 69K for the next 6 years. It can be hardcore, but it could happen because bitcoin is a very volatile asset.
FTX was liquidated, and much more can come. You can't even imagine how bad it can be with the liquidation of other exchanges and huge players such as MicroStrategy. I hope it will not happen and we will go up, but we need to consider all probabilities.
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Repeating Expanded Flats?Just a quick post here. I included this as a screenshot in another published chart shown below, but wanted to share this idea by itself.
NOTE -Expanded flat C wave typically stops either at the 1.618 or the 1.236:
- Logarithmic chart has corrected down to the 1.618 exactly.
- Linear chart shows us stopping near the center point between the 1.618 and 1.236, near the 1.427.
Original post:
Another note - I'm super bullish on DXY, which should be bearish for crypto and stock markets. For the above move to occur, I'd expect us to see DXY re-test the area around 103.
Bitcoin - All of the reasons why the bottom is near (in)
This analysis will show you why the bottom of Bitcoin could be very close. This is a set of indicators that tell their own story, so let's take a look at them.
Currently, Bitcoin is the most hated asset in the world. Everything is rising, including gold, silver, stocks, the EUR/USD, indices, and even meta Facebook, the most bearish stock. Bitcoin is the weakest asset. You can be a contrarian and buy it.
But let's take a look at the technical analysis. As you can see, we have a trendline from the all-time high of 69,000 USD to the current price. The bulls already broke the trendline, but the bear was stronger, and the price was pushed down. The trendline is currently being retested, which is a common thing in trading. There is a pretty huge chance that every trendline will be tested again. Usually, you want to buy the retest. So we have a first buy signal here.
Large institutions and hedge funds regard 200 moving averages as strong support or resistance. There are two types of possible curves for a moving average. The curve can be descending or ascending. In this case, the curve is ascending, which is an indication of an uptrend. The uptrend is still valid, and this is a bullish sign. But the price is below the 200 MA, which is bearish on the other side.
Then there's the Elliott Wave. This downtrend could have moved in a complex corrective structure known as a double zigzag (WXYXZ). This structure must contain 3 zigzags for a total of 6 impulses. It is really possible that it is actually a double zigzag corrective pattern, which is bullish.
If we take a look at the volume indicator, we have historically had the highest volume on the Binance exchange. This is an indication of a massive exchange of Bitcoin. People are selling, but for every transaction, there has to be a buyer. Extremely high volume is an indication of capitulation and often indicates a trend reversal. During a stop-loss hunt, we typically see a huge volume spike and the price move in the opposite direction because the whales simply took the necessary liquidity.So massive volume spike can be a bullish sign. It is a special event.
The next indicator is the RSI. There is a huge bullish divergence that cannot be ignored. Bullish divergence is a very powerful indication that the bears are losing steam. It happens when the price makes a new lower low while the indicator makes a higher low. This is very bullish.
MACD: The histogram measures the difference between the two moving averages of the MACD indicator. The histogram is ticking to the upside and is above the 0 level. If the histogram reaches above the 0 level, then the two moving averages cross each other. Recently, we have had a bullish cross, which is a bullish signal. This bullish signal is still valid until the histogram falls below 0 again.
FTX capitulation: A major player in the cryptocurrency industry has been wiped out. Capitulation is a sign of a trend reversal. When everyone is selling, it's time to buy. It looks like a lot of retail investors just sold their Bitcoin holdings. Capitulation is one of the classic phases of the market cycle.
CPI data was very positive, and inflation is going down. As per my research in one of my previous analyses, I expect inflation to drop to 0% in the next few years. If you follow me on TradingView, then you know why it can happen based on technical analysis. But if you don't, no worries! You can check out the 0% inflation analysis in the related section down below!
Gold is rising pretty significantly along with the DJI stock market index, which is also very good for Bitcoin.
DXY dollar index is falling; the dollar is currently losing strength, but of course, it can be only temporarily.
Believe it or not, but Bitcoin can rise 50% in a single week, and it can happen so fast. One tweet from CZ and the job is done.
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All my predictions are wrong?I received numerous comments claiming that all of my predictions were wrong or that I was paid by the mafia, and so on. Let's take a look at the previous analyses that I predicted. My predictions are sometimes wrong and sometimes right; that's trading. I warned you a lot about specific coins or predicted the TWT pump.
I predicted a 30% crash on Doge coin here, when everyone was buying like crazy:
I told you a 60% crash on SHIBA was coming:
I predicted this huge, massive uptrend on TWT:
I told you not to buy LUNC because it would crash -60% (extremely hard), and it really did:
I predicted a huge crash on Solana:
I predicted a tremendous crash on ADA:
I predicted a big crash on APT. Do not buy this altcoin, I warned you:
I told you not to buy XRP here:
I predicted a massive crash on GMT:
I was right about the XLM dump here:
I predicted this top on the DXY index:
I predicted a huge pump on Bitcoin from the 0.618 FIB:
I predicted the dump on Bitcoin here:
And much more...