FDAX UpdateFDAX daily RSI overbought, 3 hr way overbought
Testing resistance line as is ES1! (see daily plot). We'll see if it breaks through or tanks tomorrow.
FDAX1!
FDAX UpdateRSI overbought with MFI divergence on the 3 hr chart. Note that it's also close to the resistance zone.
Guessing they do a pump and dump tomorrow, not sure which way the US market gaps.
FDAX UpdateOverbought again but starting to look like a melt up
Maybe they're happy they aren't freezing to death this winter, lol. Or maybe they like recessions.
Europe has less of a reason to rally than the US, so it's all pretty funny. With the central banks killing the commodity trade, I guess they have nowhere else to throw their money. This just goes to show there's still too much money floating around.
FDAX UpdateReaction to Fed minutes starting to look bearish, FDAX is overbought so possible gap down tomorrow.
DAX held the 1D MA50 going for the 9-month Resistance.DAX is on a very strong rebound after holding the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support, having closed all 1D candles above it since December 20. As mentioned on previous analyses, the target is the 14680 - 14950 Resistance Zone. We are looking to take profits on the first sign of rejection within that zone.
Beyond that, we will buy either after a 14950 bullish break-out, i.e. a 1D candle closing above 14950 and target the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up within 15300- 15400. That is located directly below the February Resistance Zone.
As long as the 1D MA50 holds, (i.e. candle closing above it), buy on the short-term and target 14680. A closing below the 1D MA50 should take DAX to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), located at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. Keep an eye also on the 1D RSI Buy Zone for medium-term buys.
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FDAX UpdateHit overbought and stalled this morning, possible gap down tomorrow.
NQ MFI is oversold, but none of the other indices are yet.
DAX Can dip even lower with the RSI being the keyThe German stock index (DAX) has had a strongly bearish week as it got rejected just below the 14700 June 06 High, inside the greater Resistance Zone that is holding since March 29. As we mentioned last week, this is a much needed technical pull-back following the +24.50% rise since the October 03 Low. The 1D RSI got vastly overbought above 80.000 and it is only natural for the market to seek to normalize these levels.
The 1D RSI is now almost at 40.000 but based on the Support Zone (green) that has been holding for over a year, it can dip to 30.000 if not lower before DAX turns into a buy opportunity again long-term. This will most likely be below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) being the 1st Support and the Higher Lows trend-line the 2nd.
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DAX 1D Golden Cross is bullish but mid-term indicates volatilityToday the German stock market (DAX) completed a Golden Cross pattern on the 1D time-frame, which is when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That is technically a bullish formation and that is what we interpret it as, at least on the long-term. Historically a 1D Golden Cross delivers new Bull Phases on DAX and it was such a Cross that took it out of the last major Bull Cycle in 2009 (U.S. housing crisis).
On this study though we give particular attention to the previous two Golden Crosses, which all share similar characteristics to today's. Once the index broke above the Bear Phase's Lower Highs trend-line, the Golden Cross was formed shortly after, with the 1W RSI getting rejected on roughly the same level (red Resistance Zone). On both occasions the price pulled-back to at least the 1D MA200. That is currently at 13540 and should stay around this level through-out Q1 of 2023. If a similar Megaphone pattern transitions DAX into the new Bull Phase, then we expect the index to have bottomed around the 1D MA200 by the end of Q1 (March) 2023 and then rebound towards recovering its All Time High.
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DAX: aiming at the Support below the 4H MA50.The price failed to break above the 4H MA50 (red) and dropped more to a new Low. This is getting closer to our 14,150 short-term target just above the 14,130 Support (formed from the low of November 15th). 4H is now close to oversold territory (RSI = 34.750, MACD = -47.400, ADX = 59.234) so we might see a short term rebound back to the 4H MA50 (14,446.70 and dropping) but with a break below 4,100 we will extend selling to the 4H MA200 (currently at 13,898.60). The 1D RSI remains bullish (57.430) though but we're only willing to buy as of this point if the price breaks above the 14,710 (June 6th 2022 High) Resistance and target the 14,940 (March 29 2022 High) Resistance.
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DAX: Short term outlookDAX continues to slowly but steadily grind higher using the 4H MA50 (14,451) as Pivot. With such neutral 4H technicals (RSI = 50.442, MACD = 15.00, ADX = 16.012), we will engage today in scalping activity within the 4H Bollinger Bands (14,590 - 14,389). A break above 14,650 would be a break-out bullish call targeting 14,710 (June 6th 2022 High) Resistance, while a closing below 14,320, would be a break-out bearish call targeting 14,150. A closing above the 14,710 Resistance would be a bullish break-out signal targeting the 14,940 March 29th 2022 High.
FDAX UpdateIndicators are neutral and index is just drifting sideways.
Gap direction Monday will depend on pre-market "news", otherwise probably a flat open.
DAX 's incredible 8 straight green week rally may come to an endThe German Index (DAX) hit last week its 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and early this week, the 1W candle is pulling-back in red. If it closes this way, it will be the first week of loss (red) since late September, running an amazing streak of 8 straight green ones.
With the 1W RSI almost reaching 65.000 for the first time since November 15 2021 (a whole year ago), a potential 1W MA100 rejection can draw comparisons with the post U.S. - China trade war recovery early in 2019. As shown on this chart, DAX pulled-back on the 2nd week after breaking above its 1W MA100 and the pull-back broke marginally below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
A megaphone pattern of Higher Highs and Lower Lows took the price just below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) before recovering and post a strong rally that broke slightly above its Resistance Zone from the previous All Time Highs.
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FDAX UpdateFDAX also has an open gap though it tends to leave gaps open for longer than US market, looks to me like it;s headed to oversold
FDAX Update by RequestFDAX doesn;t really show much as far as direction.
Daily RSI is overbought though
DAX: 1H Rising Wedge with clear targetsDAX is trading inside a Rising Wedge on the 1H time-frame with the price making a Higher High by breaking above yesterday's High/ Resistance on healthy 4H technicals (RSI = 56.980, MACD = 66.900, ADX = 28.300). Despite the overbought 1D RSI, as long as this Rising Wedge is maintained, DAX should target the 14,710 Resistance (June 6th High). If the 1H MA50 (blue) and the Rising Wedge break downwards, the 4H MA50 is the first line of Support (14,277) but most likely we will see a test of the 14,145 - 14,170 Support Zone, which is near the bottom of the November Channel Up. This is where the 1H MA200 (orange) is.
If it breaks, we turn bearish on the medium term, aiming at the 13,600 Support. If the 14,710 Resistance breaks, we remain bullish, targeting the 14,940 Resistance (March 29th High).
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FDAX UpdateNot sure what the Euros are doing, lol. Indicators show nothing on the 3 hr, but daily is overbought on RSI while MFI is trending down.
No idea which way the market gaps tomorrow. Gap down and reversal tomorrow would make for an easy trade, but there haven't been many easy trades lately, lol. Lucky to get one easy trading day a week.
FDAX UpdateRSI almost overbought with MFI divergence. Could go overbought and roll over Sunday night, or another possibility is a gap up Monday and dump.
We'll see Monday. holding a position over the weekend isn;t worth the heartburn.
FDAX UpdateFDAX only did a small dip this morning, indicators are neutral but chart pattern looks like a bull flag.
Guessing a gap up tomorrow, and Fridays are usually bullish when the market is trending up because it's Ponzi 401k payday.
FDAX UpdateIndicators neutral, no guesses for gap direction tomorrow.
I'm sure they'll be "news" again of some sort, lol
DAX recoverd but approaching a strong Resistance similar to 2019Very interesting fractal repetition for DAX so far. As the price is approaching the 1W MA100 (green) a typical Support in Bull Markets and Resistance in Bear Markets, we have spotted striking similarities with the 2018/2019 correction. There is a flat Resistance just above the 1W MA100, which in April 2019, as the index recovered from that multi month correction, pushed it back to the 1D MA200 (orange).
Swing traders can wait for the next big entry there, if the pattern continues to repeat that Cycle. The RSI so far tends to agree and shows that weve just started a new multi month recovery phase.
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FDAX UpdateWay overbought with MFI divergence now.
US market ignoring the news about Russian missiles hitting Poland, we'll se if the Germans ignore it in their own back yard.
FDAX UpdateNot only overbought on the 3 hr chart, but way overbought on daily.
US market appears to be starting a 4 day short squeeze so not gonna short anything yet,.
