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Fakeout

The bear scenario should the pattern prove to be a diamond top.A big red candle has taken us well below the diamond pattern and just under the 4hr 50ma where it is currently retesting and finding resistance....if that resistance solidifies and continues to maintain resistance then we are most likely confirming the pattern as a diamond top in which case its breakdown target is 10628. This may only be the beginning of the downtrend if that were to occur because it could also trigger a bart from the 1 day bull flag with the incredibly long pole which would give us a bart target all the way down at 8968. If this were to happen it would invalidate our adam and eve double bottom chances and potentially allow our double top to still trigger which could lead to yet even more downside so let's hope it doesn't. I think If we were to revisit 8968 we will be very very likely to fill the 8.5k and possibly the 7.2k gaps and then se a huge influx of buyers launch the price back up before it has a chance to trigger the double bottom bu of course we will have to wait and see if we even reach that low first and then how price action behaves once we do. there's still a chance this can be yet another bear trap and the price action could still bounce back up at the last second and break above the diamond/symmetrical triangle pattern but for now as long as the 4hr 50ma is maintaining resistance probability now favors at least a diamond top breakdown. Let's hope that changes but are fully prepared for if it doesn't.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Ethereum possible price collapseEthereum currently has a symmetrical triangle, in my last analysis I was much more bullish, it is clear now that the bullish case does not hold as the price has broken down from the symmetrical triangle. The symmetrical triangle was also a part of a much larger leg down, its possible that this will operate similar to a flag. There is some solid support from the trendline which formed between December 2018 - May 2019, this should still act as strong support, but there is a good chance that it will break that support at this point as most of the other alts have broken through a similar trendline. There was an upthrust (bull trap), however, this occurred with average little volume relative to the pattern, so it is bearish, but not all that bearish. The Chart: Presented above, there is a symmetrical triangle I guess in magenta however I have been calling it violet. The price objective can be seen in a similar color presented in a box with two different versions of purple. One is purple and the other is violet or whatever, the purple, one is the price objective if only the price objective of the symmetrical triangle is hit. The other is if the price objective of the pole for the symmetrical triangle is hit, once again I was being more conservative with the price objective as I measured it from the upthrust of the pattern. There is support which was the previous resistance of the consolidation from December 2018 - May 2019 which is why I separated the price objectives as such. Possible price action is represented by the purple and violet lines (merely a representation with no time frame attached to it) There is a strong chance that the support represented in the green diagonal does hold, in that even I believe there will be another consolidation there and a directional break from that point can move in either direction. This is represented by the blue line. (Representation of possible price action) Previous Analysis:
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by CuddlyCuddles
XAUUSD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (1W CHART) XAUUSD POTENTIAL OUTCOMES I'M MAKING THIS CHART BY SPECIAL REQUEST AND AFTER LOOKING AT THIS COMMODITY THE CHART IS SHOWING ME TWO POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. RECENTLY XAUUSD BROKE ABOVE RECENT SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURE OF 1350 PRICE ZONE. THERE ARE REALLY TWO THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN HERE. FIRST OFF WHEN A BREAKOUT ABOVE OR BELOW STRUCTURE OCCURS YOU WANT TO WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION THAT IT'S A TRUE BREAKOUT BEFORE TRADING. THIS WILL ELIMINATE RISK MORE SO BY GIVING A MORE SOUND PROOF REASON BEHIND TAKING A TRADE. A WAY TO TELL IF IT IS A ACTUAL BREAKOUT OR NOT FIRST IS THE POWER OF THE BREAKOUT, THE MOMENTUM AND STRENGTH OF THE BREAKOUT IS VERY CRUCIAL. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT IF YOU SEE A VERY STRONG BREAK IT SHOWS IT TOOK A LOT OF BUYING/SELLER POWER TO GET THROUGH THAT LEVEL, SHOWING IT'S A SIGNIFICANT LEVEL AND ALSO A SIGNIFICANT BREAK. SECOND, YOU WANT TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE RE-TEST IS; IF PRICE JUST RUNS RIGHT BACK AFTER THE BREAK THAN IT'S A FAKEOUT, IF PRICE SLOWLY RE-TESTS THE AREA WITH SOME RESTS AND SMALL PULLBACKS IT SHOWS IT WAS A LEGIT BREAK AND WAIT FOR THAT BUYER/SELLER MOMENTUM TO RESUME BEFORE TAKING A TRADE. THIS ALSO GIVES YOU BETTER RISK TO REWARD WITH YOUR SETUPS. YOU WANT TO BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH. THIS IS MY OUTLOOK ON XAUUSD SO NOW WE HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF PRICE RUNS RIGHT BACK (FAKEOUT) OR IF PRICE HOLDS, HAS A WEAK SELLER RE-TEST, AND BUYER MOMENTUM AND STRENGTH COMES BACK. HOPE THIS HELPS LETS KEEP AN EYE OUT! CHEERS!
FX:XAUUSD
by JosePips
Priceaction keeps knockin on the necklines door but cant come inyet another instance where the accuracy of TA absolutely astounds me. We can see when the price broke up on the first 4hr candle to leave the neckline behind that it hit the turquoise falling wedge's breakout target with exact precision the next candle made it as high as 11126 or so before coming back down and turning red on us and where did that candle stop its fall at? right back at the descending neckline of the inv h&s pattern where its continuing to find very solid support. Until it closes a 4hr candle back below the inv h&s neckline a fakeout won't be confirmed. For now it's still quite possible for it to bounce back up off the neckline and head back up to 11.2k possibly even the 12.3-12.5k range. Also possible to tank here and then head back down to 8.5k after confirming a fakeout. For now we remain neutral and vigilant until the whales make clear their next move.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
3hr inv h&s in playWe are currently still making our way towards the falling wedge's breakout target at around 11040 and in doing so we have started to form an inverted head and shoulder pattern which if validated has a price target around 12450. There is a good possibility we could validate both patterns and reach 12450-12500 but there's also the good probability that we could only hit the falling wedge target via an inv h&s fakeout breakout. We could also very likely fill the CME gap at 11.2k and still have an inv h&s fakeout so we must keep that in mind. Lastly, we could even not even break above the inv h&s neckline before a fakeout is confirmed and we had back down. All of these outcomes are possible and must be kept in mind to ensure we make the right decision on this next move, For now until it chooses one of those paths my sentiment is long.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
2
btc goes against the herd pumps during initial deathcross.Btc has done a fantastic job faking out the herd after dipping back below the double top neckline then shooting all the way back up to test the 4hr 50ma which is currently maintaining resistance. If it can find a way to rise above both the 4hr 50ma and 200ma and flip them to solidified support then odds are likely this deathcross will end up being a fakeout. However, having jus deathcrossed could give both moving averages extra resistance momentum in which case we could still go down from here and reach he 8.5 target. We must also remember the breakout target of h falling wedge is around 11.1k so we could also still continue up to 11.1-11.2k before finally plunging back below the 4hr 50 and 200mas as well, I'd say at this point anything is possible and until we clear about 11.5k and flip it o support a trip back down to 8.5k07.2k-or even 6k if a double op is triggered is still possible. Best to pay close attention to how price action reacts to testing these mas and if it goes above that how it reacts to the 11.1-11.2k level.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
ETHUSD - Range trading, the next re-accumulation in progress! Hello traders, investors and community, there is an amazing example for pattern recognition forming with ETHUSD, i want explain to you. Looking on the daily chart we can see that ETHUSD formed several re-accumulation periods in the past before breaking out of the range. This process brought the price of ETHUSD from 160 USD to 340, almost a doubling in price. There is still room to go for ETHUSD, i detected that we are in a new re-accumulation right now. You can see it in my chart, highly possible there will be a break-out in this range again. There is a correlation between the declining volume before each of the break-outs, volume declines before the break-out happens. This happens because volatility and interest gets lower in each re-accumulation while price is moving sideways. You can see it marked in my chart. Short-term: A bounce from the 340 to 370 USD range is expected while stochastic RSI is forming an bullish divergence (over-sold) Middle-term: After the bounce to the 370 USD range there will be a pull-back in the 340 USD range just like seen in the re-accumulations before, giving traders the opportunity to open LONGS in this level. After this pull-back happened there has to keeped an eye on the possible break-out coming after the re-accumulation finished, this will be the perect spot to open new LONGS because the market confirmed the pattern as seen before. Long-term: There is still way to go for ETHUSD as the cryptocurrency market is in an steady up-trend, i do not think this will quit so soon. To earn in this market is not so difficult as some people propagade it is BUT it must be made SMART! On the other hand this must not 100 % play out, there is also an other option for the market... to reverse in this level, i will do another analysis on this second scenario, which for my turn isnt the more likely one. So why do i call this re-accumulation?! There are several factors which point out that these ranges are re-accumulation periods, please leave a comment if you want a detailed analysis on this. This pattern can be traded in several ways, short-term traders can make use of the range we are trading in taking care of the possible top coming in the re-accumulation period, the aggressive approach would be to open a LONG position here before the break-out happened, the conservative approach is to wait until the break-out happens and open a LONG position. Be aware, there is always an fake-out in these ranges seen before. Thank you everybody for watching, love you all! Its ok to give me an like or follow, supporting my future analysis friends. Have a nice day!
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by VincePrince
1
GBPAUD - EDUCATION - 23. JUNE. 2019Welcome to DACapitalTrading, We provide any kind of Technical and Fundamental Analysis for Forex and Crypto-Currency Markets every day! - 1 HOUR Sideways waving market looking for a takeout direction. 4 HOUR Heading down, I see a break below previous week lows. DAILY Bullish market found its top and resistance now, we need a pullback to takeout long holders. OVERALL Waiting for a break below/above a main level. Expecting market to form new weekly lows and head back up into main price movement area before heading further down or making new highs overall. There should be a lot of market movement this week. Will update as soon as something happens. Good luck - Leave us a comment or like to keep our content for free and alive. Have a great week everyone! ALAN
Education
by DACapitalTrading
18
Bitcoin's Possible Failure and RetracementCurrently, the price objective of the broadening wedge has not been hit, that is bitcoin's failure. If the top of the broadening wedge does not hold, then it will most likely retrace. In White, there was a small ascending triangle/Double top on the 4 hour time frame, and it broke out to the down side, it is possible that BTC will retest the top of the broadening wedge, which is around 10100 to 10000, failure of this area to hold will most likely indicate a retracement to the 6k levels as previously mentioned. This would also void the previous analysis of the parabolic move. There is still ample space in the 4hr RSI to fail, however, a bounce off of anything above 40 would still be indicative of bullish moment, however, if it fails to bounce in that region, then the daily must be analyzed to identify, whether bearish moment has seeped into a larger time frame. In addition, there is a bearish divergence, however, this may only be worth noting on this time frame. Previous Analysis:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CuddlyCuddles
EURUSD - EDUCATION - 15. JUNE. 2019DACAPITALTRADING V2.0: Welcome to DACapitalTrading, We provide any kind of Technical and Fundamental Analysis for Forex and Crypto-Currency Markets every day! - 1 HOUR Very bearish price action on friday with a strong negative closure for last week. 4 HOUR Pullback after forming a med-timeframe Double top with a strong reaction. DAILY Bearish waving market turned bullish with a strong reaction and pullback afterwards. OVERALL Bullish market with over 50% Pullback of previous week price action + wave formation, expecting market to drop below previous week lows and rise very strong instantly afterwards. Very good setup with high probability, we patient to get good entries next week :) Good luck Leave us a comment or like to keep our content for free and alive. Have a great week everyone! ALAN
Education
by DACapitalTrading
48
EURUSD - EDUCATION - 08. JUNE. 2019DACAPITALTRADING V2.0: WELCOME TO DACAPITAL TRADING, WE PROVIDE ANY KIND OF TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR FOREX AND CRYPTO-CURRENCY MARKETS EVERY DAY! - 1 HOUR Strong bullish market right now forming new highs. 4 HOUR Bullish breakout with strong buyers pressure. DAILY Over 60% pullback of previous elliott wave and range. OVERALL Very strong market right now, I expect market to form new highs at the beginning of this week and pullback towards our psychological level midweek/end of this week. Depending on market open if price gaps down there might be a strong selloff on monday impacted by npfs on thursday. I will update you as soon we get some price action :) Good luck LEAVE US A LIKE AND COMMENT TO KEEP OUR CONTENT FOR FREE AND EVERYONE! HAVE A GREAT WEEK ALAN
by DACapitalTrading
45
BTC Retracement to 6,000 - before the next bull runAs you can see, BTC has gained a lot of selling pressure over the last few days. Perhaps due to bigger participants taking profits after we hit the psychological number of 9,000. The ADX shows buyers are starting to gain dominance, indicated by the red line crossing the green line. And volatility is starting to pick up. Furthermore, i have taken a previous move from the last major bullrun which is a mirror image of the current move. History tends to repeat itself. Furthermore, this matches up with a 50-61.8% retracement. For even more confluence this would tap the psychological number of 6,000. I will be cashing out my BTC into stable coins for the meantime, before a rentry after more confluence. As it is still possible this could be a major fakeout, even though that is unlikely, i like to consider all options. Conclusion - Bearish momentum to the downside (6,000) before a nice upside move. BULL MARKETS ARE BUILT ON BEAR BLOOD. BEARS WILL BE SELLING SELLING SELLING. THE MASSES WILL FOLLOW... THEN THE BULLS COME BACK TO FIGHT. Happy trading.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by ikdavis
9500-11k? Or fakeout?I could be incredibly wrong, but this setup looks like the perfect storm for a fakeout after we test 8500. Even if we do make new highs, ill be incredibly cautious to open any more new long positions. Even though trading view says my investment strategy is shorting, im not interested in opening any new short positions either. I wanted to clarify that, I want to go long but now is certainly not the time. If we break new highs, people start fomoing into long positions only to realize we don't have the fuel to break resistance we haven't yet even touched. In order for leverage trading to be directional to price action, there needs to be more people actually trading spot. For instance, if everyone is going long, market makers can just use that to cause the market to move in the opposite direction if there aren't the same amount of positions open on spot. I think we are due to at least test 8500 once, but with everyone in the same mindset that if we break new highs, were FOR SURE going to 10k. This is bad thinking and just another example of why it's good to be a contrarian. The moment we create a new local high, every oscillator will be screaming divergence. I can't imagine this being algorithmic, it would have to be 100% market maker participation. Bitcoin as of recently has not been a technical market, it has been 100% emotional. At this moment, It's a contrarian's market and has been since we capitulated below 6k back in November 2018. Market makers have 1 job, that is to make a market and they have been doing a good job creating a ton of emotions along the way. The real question is... when will people stop longing the dips rather than actually buying the dips? This is going to be interesting.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn2831343
2
Fake out leads to a drop! Lower lows and VWAP AMD another Home Run trade. When breaking out new highs the price has to sit to the higher levels confirming an area of confluence and stabilization. If it gets back to breakout levels it could then just drop at least retesting VWAP. 29.60 / 29.95 has been an important level on AMD. Touched and heavily sold today 29.62 has been shorted again! Price confirmed the down trend fading off the 13eMA perfectly. First take could have been just at the first time price crossed the 13eMA. Second take at the break of 28$ and one more piece could have been closed at next cross. Last one simply let it go break even. And in this case would have produced another nice movement in our favor closed at 27.50
NASDAQ:AMD
by Intuitrading
US 30 Near Pivot? Or Lower? Calls or Puts?!? Or Cash!?!See TLs in chart. Might be setting up for a bear rally like the two spikes we saw in Nov & Dec; or might still head lower to the long-term TL beneath. Appears like the A-B-C pattern may be nearing completion; unless it's another fakeout and we enter a real Wave 3 downtrend... so chancy now. Expected a bit lower but no massive selloff yet; market holding its breath, a tweet could spark rally from here, or break it. Lately more tough tweets than sweets... Fed probably won't ease or tighten atm, IMO. Trade war will likely continue through the 2020 election cycle- both sides want to look tough, no faceloss. If it cascades to give a double bottom there will likely be a significant rally from area of Dec lows. Really uncertain now; can do either; might do both! Sidelined in cash atm guardedly brooding; whither hence?!? See if we get consolidation over this week at these prices... wait and see safest bet atm IMO. Just an idea... not any kind of investing advice; trade at your own risk- GLTA!
DJ:DJI
by DaddySawbucks
1
Fomo/Manipulation Fake Out? Lower highs, Lower lowsHey dudes! I can't help but look at it in the bigger picture. I agree since our last low in December that it has been looking bullish but overall I still see lower highs and lower lows. If the Bull run has started wouldn't it be confirmed by getting a new high ABOVE $7,300 which was in theory the last high we have had. And after closing above $7,300 we would need a new low ABOVE the previous low of $3,100. NVT over bought RSI over bought Fear and Greed index: Extreme Greed Congressman talks of bitcoin Ban Tether and Bitfinex Scandal Binance Hack Yet price is pumping through resistance like it's nothing. Is this just a big fake out being fueled by whales, tether/bitfinex and ignorant moon boys? Is it being fueled and pumped to soon come crashing down with the strength of a thousand suns to wreck havoc once Tether goes down? Or has the bull run genuinely started and we are off to the moon?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn2014765
BTC which way will you go?Hi, We can see BTC/USD has broken it's symmetrical triangle to breakout of the long term downtrend. it has now created a bull flag or ascending triangle. As we know BTC is great at painting pictures and then going the other way. If it breaks up and runs whole length of the flag pole we are looking at it breaking back into the previous resistance area, if it breaks down with one of its famous Bart Simpson fractals (possible double top inside the ascending triangle to watch also) and also runs the length of the flag pole we are back down into the previous support area. note the Golden Cross looking to happen on the daily chart, yes this is a great bullish sign but does most certainly not mean that it will sky rocket to the moon. many times after a massive downtrends will indexes, stocks and alt coins cross back with a Death Cross only to rally slowly in the upward direction to show strength and long term rigidity. up to you. not advice just an opinion. enjoy the charts, Boo Cha.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by boocha
AUDJPY Range Breakout May Be A FAKEOUT! Look at the attached image where price is confined in a channel of a weekly chart. We can see the presence of the weekly 50 EMA which often acts as dynamic support and resistance in most cases. The price did breakout from the range but however it failed to close above weekly 50 EMA! The price is now headed back to test the range's resistance and most of the traders would think its a good opportunity to enter at this stage. Well fundamentally its a good setup to enter as the trade deal is almost done which usually helps the AUD in this case however looking at the technical perspective we have to be concerned that the price has NOT yet closed above the weekly 50 EMA! so what can we do to trade this pair cautiously? Well logically we should wait for the weekly candle to close above the weekly 50 EMA and go LONG from there with the upper end of the weekly channel as our primary target. As for now i want to see where the weekly candle closes and how does the price behave in the coming weeks before i take this pair LONG. Hope you find this analysis useful, if you do please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you want to receive future trade analysis. cheers and thanks
by FX618Analysis