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Fairvaluegap

$EURUSD - UPDATE: New Entry, Close 15 min FVG then BEARISH *SMT**SMT = SMART MONEY THEORY* WHERE INSTITUTIONS RIP RETAIL TRADERS TO SHREDS BECAUSE THEY DON'T THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX. Please see related Idea for details. I posted on earlier 0.98045but after watching it closely I only believe it will get as high as enclosing a 15 min Fair Value Gap, then it wil drop aiming for the liquidity uner neath last friday's lows. which is also 1 standard deviation below the Asian Range during the Asian Session. I'M GOING 2% OF ACCOUNT -USING ALL 50 OF MY LEVERAGE entry - 0.98045 S/L - 0.98540 TP 0.97080 IF YOU FIB FROM THAT LAST 15 MIN CANDLE UP BEFORE THE LARGE DROP, YOU'LL SEE IT WILL RETURN ABOUT 80% OF THE RETRACEMENT. THAT'S ABOUT NORMAL FOR RETRACEMENTS. OANDA:EURUSD BMFBOVESPA:EUR1! ICEUS:DX1! BIST:EURUSD1!
Short
by BodiesXWix
3
$XRP - Hedging Bullish Against Pevious Call? *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Tasla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will do 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.* I batttled withthis and had two ideas and I've narrowed it down to one. It should fill the 4 hour fair value gap bellow before shooting up and filling the Weekly fair value gaps created back in May/April So Currently the price dropped today in the new day and month but has not finished out the week. And I don't think that my original idea will be finished out this week. I do believe that the price will Move up. because if you look at the current Wave, the 162% is the current high within the last few days . Additionally it is within the weekly Faif value gap that it entered and droped created an Instititional Order Entry Drill (WHICH IS THE CURRENT HIGH) Now you can enter now with little leverage and leave a atop loss of about $0.42000 as well as a second entry of $0.4400 with the same stop loss. also with very low leverage. The reasoon I have it bullish above these prices are because the last quartly highs haven't been above $0.4100 and I would expect them to stay above that considering the weekly fair value gap prices. However, I do take a step back and think that it could fulfill the current 4 hour fair value gap before moving updward and then fulfilling the weekly fair value gap before getting to the current high. So that's why I have a thir entry, this would be high leveraged and the current 4 hour fair value gap price jumps from .4050 to .4230 Lastly I have an entry of $.42500 with a stop loss that would cover the 4 hour fair value gap and that entry would be the last bullish order block of $0.42545 covering to the previou areas consolidation low of $0.3760 ( 9however, if this is what you think you might as well add more leverage to your short and us these numbers as take profit) although, it' really the 4 hour FVG Low of 0.40550 that O dpn't think it will get lower than before I put on a high leverage long through the current Weekly Fair Value Gap and Hoping It gets to the other weekly Fair value Gap just above it. as you can see the weekly lows of the current chart are balanced vut where there is a weekly fair value gap above that price usually wants to fill, this is where the unbalanced act is that needs to be balanced. If it does fill the below 4 hour fair vlaue gap, my previous idea's take profit is complete and then it should move up to complete the banlancing of the weekly now that the daily's have been balanced. But if it goes up first and completes the balancing of the weekly, I wouldn't be surprised to see price not hi my original stop loss and turn around and filll the 4 hour gap. So just to be clear here is what I think the scaenarios are on chart 1. Now until $.4400 is an entry with a S/L of $0.42 Staying above highs. but falling again once it covers the weekly FVG near 5585 or 2. Entry at or below $0.4250 to $0.40550 To up above 0.5585 In which case the original idea has hit it's Take profit and now we're just going the opposite way So while I believe it is going to long, right now, it's whether it's going to go long short term and fall back to cover the 4 hour? Or cover the 4 hour FVG first and then go long? Considering most prices still follow bitcoin and I think Bitcoin still has time to get to it's ultimate low of $15,6 I think it's going to cover the second option first, clear out my first take profit and then head to my second. Giving it a 3.25 R:R. However, if you think right now is the time to go long, then you have a 2.75 R:R ... This is why I currently have a small amount in low 3x leverage going long, because if the second comes true, I can get 4 times the amount if I enter correctlty with 12 x leverage. Because I believe either are going to win. And I might Just not enter a second time until .41 and just ad double my current entry and have 15x leverage rather than losing any at all. Quite a bit to think about but any of these scenarios I believe are winners, It's just paying attention to Bitcoin now.
Long
by BodiesXWix
Zoom In And Learn! GBPSUD Yesterday's Trade AnalysedGBPUSD yesterday's trade was very good and I anticipated it since the day before yesterday.. You can see on the chart the following: We had a level of "Sellside liquidity" and the price reaching just before London Open. Price showed strength and confirmation for entry, targeting, first, the Relative Highs, and next, the Swing Buyside Liquidity to which the price reached up and reversed (we closed position a bit after that).. DXY was confirming the move.. Would be happy to hear from you in comments 😊 Stay Sa£e & &ood Tradin&
Long
by MST_Trader
1
$BTC - Last Short before Pivot to Bulishness: Near $15,825 *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Tasla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is regarding what price action will do - 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines,etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) Halfway points in fair value gaps, order blocks, Breakers, are always a price to aim for. Support and resistance onnly exist to protect profits, as soon as an institution wants more, they'll all use the same Options strategy amd that's then Support and resistance is broken. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.* Bitcoin - It dropped pretty hard after entering a 4 hour fair value gap. This is called an institutional order flow entry drill (IOFED). It drops down to "Support" To where retailers would probably start buying. However, If you haven't done a monthly time dframe analysis on this chart, you will be lost. There is a monthly fair value gap below current market price. After the current price hit support and came back up it then hit a bearish order block followed by another (IOFED) And this is where I believe the price will definitely take a dive as most retail positions are buying. Here's the chart depicting such safe support and retail buying in one area Options on the Bitcoin micro, for an institution to protect their asset would buy a put and buy a call. Therefor if it reaches the put strike price they can excericise the right to buy at that price and they want it lower so they can buy at a discount. So institutions know what retail is doing there for they can sell their assets and short the future/option to hedge against the sell. to get the price to start dropping. Once retail sees that it is dropping further than they want, then they eill start selling with Institutions pushing it down further. Institutions usually knmow the gap theory and will end their option/future at the midway of the monthly fair value gap and start buying up again at an enormous amount because this time it will be in the $15k range. This is about an 80% pullback from the previous low, which is exactly how the chart from 2017/2018 acted. So this should be the last hurrah of a drop. It can fill up the entire Fair value gap below but it doesn't have to. We'll just have to wait and see. Heres a chart of the monthly and where that fair value gap is. That gold line is the imbalance that price wants to fill. 2017 80% pullback VS 2022 80% Pullback 1. 2017/18 2. 2022 At first you were probabbly scratching your head or laughing at my idea. But go back and look through my last 5-6 ideas. I've pretty much been spot on the more I am involved in studying smart money. At least getting near an entry zone and hitting a take 1 profit. Thats All I need daily and I can do this for a living. What do you think? Is $16k ish too low? or do you think lower? Why? I think we're nearing the end of the pullback journey. based on history and Smart Money Technical Analaysis. Also the Commitment of traders report has the institutions adding shorts to their positions. See barchart.com chart, so if the institutions believe it's still shorting, why wouldn't we? See below Barchart CoT. It's the indicator at the bottom of the chart, and the red line represents Institutional Positions. As you can see it's lowering which means it's adding more net shorts. www.barchart.com So good luck and happy trading. COINBASE:BTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by BodiesXWix
14
$XAUUSD to short after reachng 4HR FVG *SMT+\*SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Tasla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will do 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.* Even though Im calling short could also long it until it starting, However, I feel like the move to short will be a quick on and unless I set a take profit on Longing it, I may lose out on the full potential of shorting, in which I have 3 take profit goaks. On a Higher Time Frame (4 hour) There are two imbalances neat the current price. 1 above and 1 below. The question is why do I believe it will strike these imbalances in this order? First it will appear as if that market is taking it up because there is liquidity on the sell side. More than likely it will break the little liquidity point above within the 15 min fair value gap. Here I would expect it to consolidate through the Asian Session but break the swing/spiked high during that time frame, leading retail investors to believe it will continue bullish, but will move back down under that high. At midnight NY time is when the algorithm will take effect. Whatever price it is at that time is what kind if effect price will do moving forward. I believe that after midnight it would slightly drop to convince retail traders that it's shorting, then the Judas swing kicks in. This is where it will run up into the 4 hour fair value gap where there is a daily bearish order block. Here is where to expect the price to get rejected and maybe spik e up to fill the 4 hour FVG, then you start to see the price decline due to the curtrent equal lows where there is liquidity. Institutional investors would want to hold on to their investment but make a profit of the shorting of gold and place sell stops just above the low. As all that liquidity floods the market, the price runs down into the 4 hour fair value gap below the liquidity line. At this point the price is now a duiscount in whjich institutional investors quickly pick up the tab on the cheap prices and at his poinmt yo may see the pivot toward bullishness as the dollar may start finally lowering.' Additionally, After checking the CoT report Institutional investors have been adding longs to their positions, expecting a long eventually but until they start adding shorts, is when I expect to see longs. Just my thoughts and thew esperience I've seen from these types of charts and formation via Smart Money, I'm Testing my students and many have the same thoughts, so we'll just have to see what happens :) -BodiesXWuiix
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BodiesXWix
SPX neutral with a bias to the downsideAfter yesterday's drop that hit my 3770 target, we are holding near the weekly lows in discount. On the LTF the buying started in A/S sessions on through London session to take out some on the short term price imbalances. Last POI was a reaction off of a -FVG that can be seen on the 15m and 1H charts. We will need to see if the fresh +FVG (not noted but its there on the same charts), the A/S session range, the DO, or the TDO holds up, else we continue down for the day. There's even a +OB at the 2:30 candle on the 15m, so I'll definitely be watching out for these +POIs. The unemployment claim release at 8:30 is a good catalyst for a decision on the move today and that's where I'll be focused in on. The forecast is for higher claims and I am in agreement with that but I'll be patient in my bias. Terms: LTF: Lower Time Frame POI: Point Of Interest A/S: Asian Sydney session -FVG: Bearish Fair Value Gap +FVG: Bullish Fair Value Gap DO: Daily Open TDO: True Day Open +OB:Bullish Order Block
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by Cory4rex
NAS100 - D1 Bearish Order BlockComment Ideas and/or any reasons why you would or wouldn't take this trade! Was late to post this on Friday. Going short on NAS100. Setup: Sell Limit @ 12563.58 S/L: 12682.50 T/P 1: 11925.23 T/P 2: 11802.45 Why? - NAS100 broke market structure to make a new low - Start looking for Bearish opportunities - Retraced back up past 0.79 & 0.759(OTEs) on Fib filling market imbalance left from previous sell - Market imbalance left behind from previous buys (FVGs) - Current momentum is Bearish - Strong rejection from Bearish OB - D1 Structure tends to be more reliable than lower timeframes Why not? - NAS100 has the potential to break bearish OB and create a new high - Higher timeframes have larger stop-losses (Higher risk but also higher reward🧠) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Remember, only risk up to 5% of your account per trade. I have a very small account of €200. I am risking ~€14 on this trade with the potential to lock in €71 profit - so I am risking more than normal by a slight margin BUT only because of how great the setup looks. This material is for educational purposes ONLY. Trade smart. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Glossary: OTE = Optimal Trade Entry (Most opportune place to enter a trade) OB = Order Block (Where price is likely to make a reversal) FVG = Fair Value Gap (Gaps left when only sellers/buyers were moving price down/up)
NShort
by ChadBramhall
DXY getting juicyDollar is resting below equilibrium (50%) of the marked range making it ideal for buying opportunities. Price action is indicating a bullish dollar in the coming weeks by forging buyside liquidity in the form of retail sell stops above the marked relative equal wicks. Large retail liquidity should get wiped. Expecting price to react from the marked institutional candle (the bullish orderblock +ob) to rebalance the fair value gap above the liquidity. Those are our targets for now. Stay well !
TVC:DXYLong
by PabloSMC
Bias ConfirmedHi everyone, Yesterday I talked about how Bitcoin might break lower time frame resistance and revisit the 24k level (link in the description) As for right now, we are forming a head and shoulders bullish pattern on the lower time frame and we are now filling a gap created after breaking the last high with a momentum candle. Therefore, I think that we are still on yesterday's plan where we will break the previous high and use it as a support when retesting it. Please comment if you have any questions, I will try my best to answer them. Thank you😊
Long
by yassin_khanji
1