EURUSD and GBPUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
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ANALYSIS FOR EURUSD
We have a Source Demand which is the Source of the current Uptrend and we have a Fresh Monthly Supply on the left side which is the Destination of the current Uptrend.
We divide the Demand Supply Equilibrium into 5 parts viz.
Very High on the Curve. Avoid Buying and look for selling
High on the Curve. Active Selling and no Buying area
Middle on the Curve. Avoid buying or selling as the Reward to Risk will be minimum
Low on the Curve. Avoid Selling and Prefer Buying for amazing reward to Risk
Very Low on the Curve. Avoid Selling and Prefer Buying for Maximum Reward to Risk ratio.
I agree we have a position in the Middle of the Curve though we have a Reward to Risk ratio of 4:1 hence definitely considering it.
EUR/USD Buy Opportunity - Short-Term AnalysisMonthly & Weekly Perspective
The EUR/USD is showing a strong buy opportunity, driven by recent macroeconomic developments. The U.S. Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 50 basis points, a significant move that weakens the dollar in the short term. Although the U.S. has been one of the more cautious economies, being the last to cut rates, this decision will likely continue to exert downward pressure on the dollar in the weeks to come.
Key Points Supporting the Buy Opportunity:
Interest Rate Cuts: The rate cut will lead to a short-term decline in the dollar's strength, which is bullish for the EUR/USD. As the market adjusts to this new monetary policy, we can expect further weakening of the dollar.
DXY Divergence: A bearish divergence on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is signaling further dollar weakness. This divergence, in tandem with rate cuts, reinforces the potential for EUR/USD appreciation.
Bond Market Signals:
The 10-Year Treasury Note and Bond 10-Year Yield are also showing bearish signals for the dollar. When yields decline, it typically indicates lower demand for the dollar, adding further support to the EUR/USD rally.
Technical Levels:
On the monthly and weekly charts, EUR/USD is approaching a crucial resistance level marked by a previous monthly high (Red Line). There’s a high probability of price seeking liquidity above these highs before initiating a potential reversal to the downside.
Liquidity Targets: Before any sustained sell-off begins, the pair needs to clear monthly liquidity resting above key highs. This will likely create an upward momentum toward the red resistance line, which can serve as a target for buy trades.
Buying Scenario:
Entry Point: The current price action suggests that there are favorable buy opportunities as long as the EUR/USD trades above critical support levels on the weekly and monthly charts. Traders should be cautious around major resistance but can target the highs near the red line before considering a sell-off.
Risk Management: Keep an eye on the U.S. data releases in the coming weeks to monitor if the rate cuts were the right decision. These could impact the dollar and, consequently, the EUR/USD trajectory.
EURUSD → 1.12000 This WeekThe key level this week is at 1.12000
Today, we have two news during the american session where high volatility is expected. If the euro falls to the minimum level of last Friday, we will take advantage of this to add new buy orders.
Guys, what do you think? Leave a comment with your thoughts.
EUR/USD Trade Setup – 1 Hour TimeframeMessy Price Action 🤕🤧
On the 1-hour timeframe, EUR/USD has formed a supply zone around the 1.11600 price area, and the price is currently pulling back to that level. Meanwhile, the DXY (US Dollar Index) is tapping into a demand level on the daily timeframe.
I’ve also noticed the price slowing down at a minor resistance level, but I’ll wait for a pullback to the supply zone for a more effective entry. Minor support and resistance levels are generally less reliable.
Note: There are two types of Support and Resistance Levels
1. Major Support and Resistance Levels:
These levels have the strength to stop and reverse a trending market altogether.
They are key turning points in the market.
2. Minor Support and Resistance Levels:
These levels only temporarily delay rising or falling prices within a larger trend.
They provide short-term pauses but are generally less impactful..
EURUSD / TRADING BELOW TURNING LEVEL - 4HEURUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Month-by-Month Price Movements:
June : Prices increased by 2.48%, indicating a bullish trend during this period.
July: A reversal occurred with prices decreasing by 1.48%, showing market correction or loss of momentum.
August: Prices surged again by 3.88%, suggesting renewed market strength or positive market
sentiment.
September (Forecast): A predicted decline of 1.26% could be attributed to cyclical market behavior, profit-taking, or external factors influencing the market.
Technical Analysis:
If prices drop below 1.114, further declines are anticipated, targeting 1.102 and potentially 1.094. This suggests a bearish outlook below the critical threshold of 1.114, where traders could expect more downside.
However , A break above 1.115 signals bullish momentum, with prices potentially rising to 1.120 and 1.123. This implies that breaching 1.115 could trigger buying interest, pushing prices higher.
UPWARD TARGET : 1.120 , 1.123.
DOWNWARD TARGET : 1.102 , 1.094.
GBPUSD Long - Data Says SoGBP published PMI data which, while was lower as predicted, shows that their economy is still kinda growing. Looking at the monthly chart you'll see that we keep creating wonderful high lows which leads me to the conclusion that we will attack the higher range of the current monthly swing.
“The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is weak”Following the interest rate decisions by the ECB and the Fed, the EUR/USD pair has risen to the 1.12 level. Meanwhile, the dollar index is recovering its losses post-Fed, which is limiting further gains in the EUR/USD pair. Today, the manufacturing PMI figures released for the Eurozone and Germany came in below expectations. This increased the pressure on the euro currency.
From a technical perspective, if the upward trend continues and the 1.1115 resistance is broken, the next resistance levels to watch are 1.12 and 1.1275. On the downside, if pricing drops below the 1.1045 level, 1.0970 and 1.09 could act as important support levels for further declines.
EURUSD → 1.11250 This WeekThe key level this week is in the 1.11250 - 1.11500 zone.
A fall in the euro to the minimum price of last Friday would give us the opportunity to re-enter the market in the buying zone that I specified in the chart.
Guys, what do you think? Leave a comment with your thoughts.
EURUSD → We have to waitDuring yesterday's session, the euro hit the key weekly level at 1.11250
The price movement today will be crucial, as tomorrow's interest rate decision is due and high volatility is expected. We have to keep in mind that the 1.11500 level has not yet been touched.
Guys, what do you think? Leave a comment with your thoughts.
EURUSD → The target is 1.11500The euro continued to fall yesterday until it reached the buying zone a few hours ago in the asian session.
Today we have to be alert for new weekly lows, and thus take advantage of entering the market with new buy orders, looking for the weekly target at the level of 1.11500
Guys, what do you think? Leave a comment with your thoughts.
EURUSD → Bullish PressureThe euro fell back into the buy zone yesterday after the CPI data came in line with expectations.
In the following hours we had strong bullish pressure and the euro failed to touch the 1.10000 level. Today we have the ECB interest rate decision, and we expect volatility and an upward movement in price.
Guys, what do you think? Leave a comment with your thoughts.
WE AGREE ON THE LONG, BUT?
I see too many people convinced on a brutal long of eurusd from this level..Ok the macroeconomic situation leaves one to think that the dollar will continue its decline in a massive way, there is talk of a cut of 50 basis points, there have even been speculations on 75 basis points but according to my studies and the general sentiment the cut will be 25 basis points, the Fed knows well that the world of stocks and indices respond well to a minimum cut but with higher frequency.
In my opinion we are faced with a great speculation, the dollar has already discounted the various news, as has also done the euro index leaving very important areas to fill (0.30% gap is not a small thing)
If there really will be a significant rise, I expect to see these areas filled first... Even the DXY is in an area that has historically always made the market react upwards.
So how to behave?
If you are looking for a long wait for better areas, now we are in premium zone.
If you are looking for a short, you can try from these levels.
If you are inexperienced, go to dinner in a nice restaurant and reopen the charts tomorrow morning.
In any case, use your head and low lots.
EURUSD SCALPING TRADE 17.09.24The improving risk mood and heightened odds of a large Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut at this week's meeting caused the USD to weaken against its major rivals at the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials further supported the Euro.
“The EUR/USD target is 1.11500”Last week, the ECB cut its interest rate by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. ECB President Lagarde did not make any commitments for October but indicated that rates are on a downward path. As a result, pricing in favor of the Euro strengthened, with the EUR/USD pair reaching the 1.1130 level. As the new week began, the pair faced mild selling pressure but maintained prices above the 1.11 level.
From a technical perspective, if the upward trend continues and the 1.1150 resistance is broken, the next resistance levels to watch are 1.1190 and 1.1275. On the downside, if pricing drops below the 1.1115 level, 1.1045 and 1.10 could act as important support levels for further declines.
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Euro Bulls Take Charge: But Are Options Traders Hiding a Secret?The euro is looking good for bulls right now. It's hit those liquid levels twice now and broken through them. The way it's crossed those levels, №1 and №2, is a sign of growth, at least for the short term.
But I can't do not noticing that the options market is putting in a drop in quotes and buying PUTS out- of- the money in this case.
For instance, on Friday someone bought $2.8 worth of PUTS at strike 1.10. I don't think anyone would throw that much money around without having some sort of prediction in mind.
However, let's not go with the crowd and turn the market upside down . The moment is clearly bullish.
The screenshot shows a bunch of different portfolio options and when they happened. They're all pretty close to the same level, around the yellow line.
EURUSD - TRADING TO REACH RESISTANCE TRENDLINE - 4HEURUSD - 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , trading under bullish pressure .
Currently, prices are trading above the 1.102 level. As long as the price remains above this threshold and shows signs of stabilization, it is expected to rise further, potentially reaching 1.110 and then 1.113. Should the price surpass 1.113, there could be additional gains, with the possibility of reaching as high as 1.117.
Conversely, if the price falls below 1.102, it may indicate a downward trend. In this scenario, a decline to 1.099 is likely, with the potential for a further drop to 1.094 if the bearish momentum continues.
UPWARD TARGET :1.110 , 1.113 , 1.117.
DOWNWARD TARGET : 1.099 , 1.094.