EurUsd- Will it break support and dive to 1.0750?Last week, I held a bullish stance on Eur/Usd, anticipating a breakthrough above the crucial 1.1 resistance level. Unfortunately, the pair's inability to surpass this significant threshold led me to close my trade at breakeven, prompting a decision to adopt a wait-and-see approach for further clarification.
Examining the recent price action, it appears that my patience might be rewarded with a clearer picture emerging. Currently, my perspective has shifted to bearish.
The chart illustrates that Eur/Usd is struggling to breach the 1.1 mark and instead continues to decline to support around 1.0920.
This inability to surpass 1.1 and dropping to support after touching this level, signifies weakness, raising the likelihood of a downward move below the support level.
In such a scenario, the pair could experience an acceleration in losses, with the next notable target standing at the critical support level of 1.0750.
Eurusdprediction
Outlook for EUR/USD: Davos Insights and Fed Speeches Outlook for EUR/USD: Davos Insights and Fed Speeches
Several ECB officials are expressing opposition to rate cuts, potentially helping to curb losses in the EUR/USD, which is currently testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level after a more than 0.7% drop.
Davos has prompted ECB officials to share their views on the Euro Area's prospects and their positions on the likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2024.
ECB Board Member Gediminas Šimkus, also Chairman of the Lithuanian Central Bank, suggests holding off on a central bank move, but sees the possibility of a cut in the summer. Similarly, ECB Board Member Madis Müller, the Governor of the Central Bank of Estonia, believes expectations for a rate cut are ahead of the current data reality.
However, the future direction of EUR/USD remains uncertain, as Fed officials are pushing back against interest rate hikes too, and their influence in the markets may be more significant.
Federal Reserve member Christopher Waller, whose November comments raised expectations of Fed rate cuts, today (not at Davos) expressed a more cautious outlook on the pace of rate cuts ("I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past").
Monitoring other Fed members' addresses this week will be crucial:
Wednesday, Jan 17
09:00: Fed's Bowman Speech
09:00: Fed's Barr Speech
15:00: Fed's Williams Speech
Thursday, Jan 18
07:30: Fed's Bostic Speech
Friday, Jan 19
16:15: Fed's Daly Speech
EURUSD Lokking BearishExpanding upon our prior analysis, the Euro has reached the predetermined target at 1.08991 and is currently exhibiting a strong positive response within this specific zone. This observed market behavior instills confidence, and we foresee a prolonged upward trajectory in the Euro-Dollar chart in the hours ahead. This ongoing positive trend reinforces our conviction in the potential for sustained Euro strength against the Dollar.
💡 EURUSD: Forecast January 15EURUSD still cannot escape the narrow range around the edge of the rising price channel. The bullish structure still exists and we still have long positions targeting around 1.1200. However, it should be noted that accumulation around the lower border of the price channel for too long is an unfavorable signal for sellers, especially when there has previously been a strong downward wave. You can hold the position but need to set SL below the 1.0900 zone to prevent the price from reversing and falling.
EURUSD: The USD is quiet with low trading volumeThe dollar was weak in early European trading on Monday as traders weighed the possibility of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a U.S. holiday slowed trading volume.
At 4:35 p.m. ET (9:35 p.m. Japan time), the dollar index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of six other currencies, was trading 0.1% higher at 102.242 as the holiday began. Martin Luther King Jr.
Data released on Friday showed the U.S. producer price index unexpectedly fell in December, increasing traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as early as this year.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market now has a 78% chance that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in March, compared to a 68% chance a week ago.
This week's US statistical calendar is quiet, with the focus on retail sales figures scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Investors will be closely watched for signs that consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, remains resilient despite rising interest rates.
Retail sales are expected to increase by 0.4% in December, following a 0.3% increase in November.
Investors will also have the opportunity to hear from several Fed officials, including Fed President Christoper Waller, Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daley.
The value of the euro rose even though Germany's GDP fell
In Europe, the euro/USD pair edged up to 1.0953, even as data showed the eurozone's largest German economy contracted by 0.3% in the final quarter of the year. Last year and he will decrease by the same amount throughout 2023. But despite this weakness, recent inflation data largely confirms the European Central Bank's current thinking, meaning rate cuts are not on the table in the short term, said ECB chief economist Philippe. Lane said Friday.
Eurozone inflation rose to 2.9% in December from 2.4% in November.
EUR/USD Analysis: Targeting a breakout to the downside? EUR/USD Analysis: Targeting a breakout to the downside?
The EUR/USD currency pair seems poised for a technical breakout.
Analysing the 8-hour chart reveals a consolidation phase since the start of the year, following a decline below 1.1000, with this mark acting as a resistance level on two occasions since then.
Currently, EUR/USD is resembling a triangle/flag pattern, suggesting a potential technical breakout. The looming question is: Which direction will the pair break out? There are arguments to be made for both sides of the equation, but perhaps the case for a break to the downside is more convincing?
Traders are pricing in an ~80% probability of a Fed rate cut in March. Simultaneously, an European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut for April is also on the horizon.
While both central banks might fail to meet these expectations, the likelihood that the Fed pushes back might be lower than that of the ECB.
According to Governing Council member Robert Holzmann, speaking at the World Economic in Davos, the prospect of ECB rate cuts in 2024 appears highly unlikely. At the same time, he emphasized the persistent threat of geopolitical conflicts, such as those in the Middle East, which pose a risk to Euro supply chains and energy markets. This ongoing uncertainty could exert pressure on consumer prices, creating a challenging environment that might interfere with any potential rate cuts from the ECB.
EURUSD ExpectationHello traders,
EURUSD has been inside a range since the beginning of the year. It's important to consider a few things:
- The overall structure is bullish.
- Price already took buyers and sellers by liquidating both directions.
- There is also a bigger M15 range that price is respecting.
My expectation is that price will at least mitigate the H4 supply (red zone) even if it wants to continue down. Why? Sellers from Friday are still intact after that impulsive move and they were definitely induced into the market. When/if price mitigates that H4 supply zone, it will have to make a decision. It will either continue higher and follow the Daily structure (I'll be looking for that), or it will start a pullback in order to take out the current buyers.
Slow start of the year for currency traders, nothing out of the norm, we just have to be patient :)
Good trading!
EURUSD 4H : We have to wait until break one of them EURUSD
New forecast
The EUR/USD pair made an attempt to break the 1.0928 level, but was unable to hold below it yet, remaining confined between this support and the 1.0985 resistance. Therefore, we continue our neutrality until the price is able to confirm crossing one of these two levels to determine its next destination more precisely.
We point out that breaking the support and stability below it will put pressure on the price to resume negative trading and head towards 1.0892 initially, reaching 1.0808, while breaking the resistance and stability above it represents the key to resuming the bullish wave in the short term, heading towards testing the 1.1012 and 1.1082 areas initially.
The expect range trading for today it will be between the resistance line 1.0985 and support line 1.0892.
resistance line : 1.0985 , 1.1012
support line : 1.0928, 1.0892
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EURUSD Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIn this video we take a close look at the EURUSD currency pair. We can see that this has been bullish on the higher time frame. We can see that it has traded into resistance, has also been range-bound since Friday and we are looking for a potential trade opportunity if market conditions are favourable. In the video we discuss price action, market structure, the trend and other important aspects of technical analysis. As always this information is for educational purposes only and not to be construed as financial advice.
EURUSD - 2024 - Week 3I am waiting for the sell pressure to take hold after the weekly shift in market structure to the downside to line up with the major trend.
Liquidity has been created on both sides but I'm confident that supply has got the upper hand. I will be looking for buys up to the H4 supply zones before moving into sell mode, being careful of the fact there is more than one place for price to reverse so we could get a fake move to liquidate the early swing traders into the institutional positions
💡 EURUSD: Forecast January 12EURUSD's price action did not change much, yesterday's price dropped sharply in the European session and turned up in the US session. Basically, the price action of the H4 frame does not have much impact, so our trading strategy remains unchanged. Continue to observe the resistance area around 1.1020. If the price approaches this area and forms a sell signal, you can consider trading.
Where and when to sell!Hello👋 Traders,
For the past 2 weeks, EURUSD has been slow but still moving in an uptrend.
After the buy-side was taken out and a break in market structure formed, The price should head above the equal highs to get a sell at the safest spot.
Tip; Be a seller above equal highs at a premium
EURUSD → Short to 1.06? Or Will we Break Resistance to Long?EURUSD was rejected twice at the Resistance Zone and ended last week with another leg up. Should we short here?
How do we trade this? 🤔
We had a decent entry last week, but that ended with a surprise leg up into the Resistance Zone. We now have a sell signal at the top of the zone, but need to wait for a strong bear bar closing on or near its low below the Resistance Zone around the 1.10 area. Stop loss should be placed above the Resistance Zone and set a take profit around 1:2 Risk/Reward at 1.065. It's also reasonable to take half profits at 1:1 Risk/Reward and swing the remainder of your position.
💡 Trade Ideas 💡
Short Entry: 1.09835
🟥 Stop Loss: $1.1150
✅ Take Profit: 1.06500
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Contact with Resistance Zone and Two Bear Bars
2. Look for Follow-Through and a close below Resistance Zone.
3. 1:2 Risk/Reward Ratio, Watch Out for Support at EMA Ribbons.
4. RSI at 60.00 and above Moving Average, Needs to Fall Below.
5. Also Reasonable to Scalp 1:1 and Move Stop Up to Entry.
💰 Trading Tip 💰
All trades carry a probability value based on statistical data of the price action. If the market exceeds 60% probability in a direction, it's reasonable to take the trade assuming your Risk/Reward and Probability are positive.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
EURUSD Longs from 1.08000 back upCurrently, EURUSD has been in a prolonged range, gathering significant liquidity. Given the current state of equilibrium, I am not actively seeking trades at this moment. However, I anticipate a potential move to unfold, continuing the bullish trend. For now, I will be patiently waiting for a breakout before considering any trading opportunities.
There is another plausible scenario where price breaks above to mitigate the 10-hour supply zone, leading to a bearish reaction. This possibility is valid, considering the imbalances just below that need filling and liquidity that requires sweeping.
My confluences for EURUSD buys are as follows:
- A 10-hour demand zone below triggered a new CHOCH to the upside.
- The overall short-term trend is bullish, aligning with this idea.
- Imbalance above the demand signals a favourable reaction at my POI.
- Abundant liquidity above, including trend lines and untouched Asian highs.
- Price needs to dip to a significant demand level for an upward rally to persist.
- I also expect the dollar to keep dropping indicating that EU will keep going up.
P.S. As price is still considerably distant from any nearby Points of Interest (POI), I am content to wait patiently and refrain from taking any immediate action until price triggers one of the levels I am monitoring.
Have a great trading week ahead!
EURUSD: Swing Sell Coming in| have a patience for it to happen|FX:EURUSD overall EU remain bearish after it rejected at previous high, EURO failed to gain control even after DXY plummeted, looking at the chart in 2 hour time frame, we expected price to rise up to fill the liquidity void and in that area we think there is huge amount of interest from sellers side.
what do you think of EURUSD do you think it will drop? Please like and comment your views let's discuss different bias.
❓EU:wait more confirmation and development. Overall bullish now❓Since the last outlook, we saw some bullish development on EU. However the price delivery was not very clear, so I stayed out of this market.
Current update is in the chart and please feel free to send your questions below.
☝️Dear traders, no one here has superpowers, and I'm as well just a human. Please take everything with a degree of doubt and critique. I'm just sharing my view and one of the possible scenarios of price action. When I enter I try to predict as little as possible and actually follow what the market is doing, joining the market and not arguing with it or forcing my will. Have good trading, keep a constant flow of self-awareness, and do your best. 🙌
EURUSD END-WEEK ANALYSIS 2 UPDATE 08/10/2023 Market Update: A Shift in EUR/USD Sentiment
As anticipated, we witnessed a small pullback in EUR/USD, hinting at a bearish trend resumption. However, the market structure has taken an unexpected turn. Heading into next week, I'll be shifting my focus towards long positions. Stay flexible, adapt to changing conditions, and, as always, manage risk diligently. 🚀💹 #EURUSD #Forex #TradingView #TradingStrategy
THIS IS THE SAME FOR ALL THE OTHER MAJOR PAIRS
💡 EURUSD: Forecast January 10EURUSD continues to fluctuate in a narrow range, there have been no significant new moves, you continue to observe the two edges of the range, the direction of the breakout can determine the next direction of the price. Currently, we still have long positions following the uptrend. You can continue to hold the order, the SL is placed below the channel line and the price target is around 1.12.
EURUSD BUY | Day Trading AnalysisHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Watch strong action at the current levels for BUY. GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity EURUSD
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