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EURUSD WEEK ANALYSIS 21/01/2024Is market really going down hard? or was it just manipulation to go back up? 1. On EURUSD we see a clear AMD but on a bigger scale where market manipulated into the FVG D and not the POI D. Market also traded into the discounted zones so a bullish move from here is good as market is still in a bullish trend. 2. On the 4H we also see a trend liquidity being built up so if that was to be taken out it will give a clear indication of the market willing to push back up. 3. The trend is still bearish so as long as the trendline holds market will be going down but if it fails then we will be heading back up. 4. The purple zone is also the same pattern that played out before the move on 14th NOV 2023.
Long
by Dion-FX
2
EUR/USD Awaits ECB Meeting Amidst Shifting Market DynamicsEUR/USD Awaits ECB Meeting Amidst Shifting Market Dynamics The EUR/USD pair is registering modest gains, hovering near the 1.0900 area in the early European trading session on Monday. All eyes are on the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming January monetary policy meeting, scheduled for Thursday. As of the latest update, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0897, reflecting a 0.03% increase for the day. Technical Analysis: From a technical standpoint, the price experienced a rebound around the 1.08500 support area, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the Dynamic trendline. These factors contribute to the pair's attempt to gather new bullish momentum for a sustained upward movement. Shifting Market Sentiment: Market sentiment has witnessed a shift as doubts grow regarding the likelihood of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in March. Last week's positive US economic data, including Retail Sales and the Consumer Sentiment Index, have contributed to this change. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in March has decreased to 49.3%, down from 81% just a week ago. ECB's Cautious Stance: In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council members are exercising caution against prematurely easing financial conditions. The January policy meeting on Thursday is not expected to bring any policy changes. Traders will be keenly watching ECB President Christine Lagarde's post-meeting speech for indications on potential rate cuts this year. Investors anticipate a gradual approach by the ECB, with interest rate cuts likely in the spring, driven by sustained progress towards the 2% inflation target. Upcoming Events: The ECB's monetary policy decision is scheduled for Thursday, and no policy changes are anticipated. Additionally, Thursday will see the release of the US preliminary Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4). On Friday, the Commerce Department will unveil the December reading on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), a key inflation gauge for the Fed. Conclusion: As the EUR/USD pair maintains a bullish stance, the spotlight is on the ECB meeting and evolving market dynamics. Technical indicators suggest a potential upside, but external factors, including the Fed's stance and US economic data, contribute to the complex currency landscape. Traders should stay attentive to central bank communications and economic releases for a comprehensive understanding of the pair's future movements. Our preference Long positions above 1.07700 with targets at 1.10170 & 1.1140 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EURUSD: Euro outlook next weekNext week, the ECB's monetary policy meeting will be held on Thursday, and important economic indicators from Germany will also be announced, so the euro may fluctuate significantly. This week, a number of central bank officials spoke out against overly optimistic markets about a rate cut in 2024. Next Thursday's ECB Governing Council meeting is likely to be too early for ECB President Christine Lagarde to start setting a concrete schedule for interest rates, and markets will wait until the next Governing Council meeting on May 7 for more information. would have to. Next week will see the release of the German and European PMI reports, the IFO annual report and the German Consumer Confidence Index. This data should be closely monitored as the German economy remains weak. EUR/USD broke out of a channel pattern on Tuesday and is currently trading below the 200-day SMA of 1.0850. The current support level for this pair is 1.0787, but resistance areas at 1.0950 and 1.1000 are also observed.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
EUR/USD 1.09028 +0.05 % LONG IDEA MTF BIAS 🐮🐮🐮HELLO TRADERS Hope everyone is doing great 🛑 New week new opportunities A look at the EURUSD ahead of the new week 👌MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS DXY DAILY * We see the 78.6 % FIB level holding in the past week. * Looking for signs of some bearish momentum for continuation with the bears. * The DXY is currently trading in PREMIUM. * Any signs of bearish momentum would Signal Bearish moves for the week that is. * Bullish momentum changes the Bias for the week & possibly signals reversals * We took internal LQ on the daily looking for some external LQ to be take. * Bullish sentiment will change should we take SSL. EURUSD DAILY TIME-FRAME * As they always say THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND thats the basis on this unless momentum tells otherwise. * While looking for the DXY's weakness this week this IDEA might be favored. * The EURUSD is bouncing off a + FVG * Violation of this FVG might not change the bias much, looking for continuation bullish. * EURUSD 4H TIME-FRAME * 4H fvg has not seen any violation we see the 50% of the fvg holding well. * A retest is possible before continuation * But the bullish sentiment stands from the 4H View. * Targeting BSL as my draw in LQ for the week. EURUSD 1H TIME-FRAME * Looking to see a retracement into the +OB * SHIFT in momentum with the bulls. * possible continuation of the trend. * targeting BSL. HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOURS BELOW🛑 lets see how it goes. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤ LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
Long
by PULEMokhothu
6
💡 EURUSD: Analysis January 19Indicator is used: - Chandelier Exit - EMA - MACD Re-tested the 1.09 conversion resistance zone in the last session, but the selling force returned and prevented the price from rising above this level. However, observing on a daily basis we see a spindle - credit model. Potential reversal signal. Therefore, you need to be wary of the possibility of a price reversal to the upside. You can hold short positions according to the previous breakdown signal but the SL needs to be placed above the 1.09 resistance level.
Short
by Stone_Haven
EUR/USD: Technical Analysis and ECB Policy DivergenceEUR/USD: Technical Analysis and ECB Policy Divergence The EUR/USD pair finds itself within a range, delicately poised for potential movements as it hovers around the dynamic bullish trendline near the 61.8% Fibonacci zone. Additionally, the rejection of the 200-day moving average suggests the possibility of an impending bullish impulse aligning with the prevailing trend. This article explores both the technical and fundamental factors influencing the EUR/USD and delves into the nuanced stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers. Technical Analysis: The EUR/USD's current position within a range offers traders a strategic vantage point. The rebound from the dynamic bullish trendline around the 61.8% Fibonacci zone, coupled with the rejection of the 200-day moving average, indicates potential strength in the euro. These technical signals hint at the prospect of a fresh bullish impulse, aligning with the prevailing uptrend. Fundamental Insights: The ECB's policymakers are currently at a crossroads, making it challenging for traders to ascertain the future direction of interest rates. The lack of a clear message from ECB officials has resulted in hesitation among traders. President Joachim Nagel emphasized on Monday that it is premature for the ECB to discuss cutting interest rates, citing persistent inflationary pressures. In contrast, Governing Council Member Tuomas Valimaki expressed openness to considering rate cuts sooner than some of his colleagues. ECB President Christine Lagarde added an additional layer of complexity by neither confirming nor denying expectations for cumulative rate cuts exceeding 150 basis points this year. Lagarde, while acknowledging the Eurozone's rising inflation, cautioned against premature optimism in the markets, citing the 2.9% year-on-year inflation rate in December. Position Outlook: Despite the policy divergence within the ECB, our position on the EUR/USD pair remains bullish. The technical signals, including the rebound from the bullish trendline and rejection of the 200-day moving average, align with our optimistic outlook. Traders should continue to monitor both technical and fundamental factors closely, navigating the intricacies of the forex market with a nuanced approach to risk management. As the EUR/USD pair continues its journey within the range, staying informed about both technical patterns and central bank policies is crucial. Our bullish stance is rooted in the technical signals, but traders are advised to stay vigilant in response to evolving market conditions and policy developments. Our preference Long positions above 1.07700 with targets at 1.10170 & 1.1140 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
💡 EURUSD: Analysis January 17EURUSD has fallen to the support zone around 1.0850. If the price forms and gives us a signal to buy up in this zone, we can consider trading. If you trade this frame, please note that you can wait for the price to break the most recent peak of the H4 frame and then look for a buyback price according to the previous price increase, so you will have a much higher probability of winning. . In general, with this currency pair, please pay attention to the current support price area around 1.0850. If there is a signal of a price decrease, you can consider trading. Also note that we have a small resistance level around the round number 1.0900. If you are trading in the low frame and see the price approaching this area and forming a nice bearish signal, you can consider it. Can you please sell soup from this area?
Long
by Stone_Haven
Retail Data Shaping EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: 1. US Retail Sales Increase: Recent data shows a 0.6% increase in retail sales in December, marking the strongest pace in three months. This indicates a solid holiday season and a resilient consumer attitude in the US, which could be a positive indicator for the US dollar (USD). 2. Consumer Resilience and Economic Outlook: Despite predictions of a recession, household spending has been surprisingly strong over the past year. However, this momentum is expected to slow down in 2024 due to persistent inflation, high borrowing costs, and diminishing savings. This could limit the strengthening of the USD. 3. Market Reaction: The immediate market response to the data was a drop in US Treasuries and stocks, suggesting a scaling back of expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This generally would favor the dollar. 4. State of the US Economy: Manufacturing output showed minimal growth, indicating weakness in that sector. Technical Analysis: 1. Monthly Time Frame: EUR/USD has rejected a key resistance, suggesting a possible bearish reversal. 2. Weekly Time Frame: The pair is in an upward trend and is at a significant support, which could indicate a bounce. 3. Daily Time Frame: There is an overextension of the price, suggesting a bearish correction towards 1.0800 4. 4-Hour Time Frame: A shift towards an upward trend is observed, confirming the possibility of a correction. Conclusion and Strategy: - Short-Term Outlook: The current strength of the dollar, supported by solid retail sales, could keep EUR/USD under pressure. However, the overextension and upward trend in shorter time frames suggest an imminent correction. - Medium-Term Outlook: The expectation of an economic slowdown in the US in 2024 and potential weakness in the manufacturing sector could limit the long-term strengthening of the dollar.
Long
by Wiiso
1
EUR/USD Seeks Support After Dip Below 1.0900EUR/USD Seeks Support After Dip Below 1.0900: Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics In European trading on Wednesday, EUR/USD is on a recovery path after dipping below the 1.0900 level, finding support in the 1.0860 area. The Euro is in search of a stable footing, aiming for a potential pullback. Technical Analysis: A closer look at the technical analysis reveals a notable rebound in the price, aligning with the dynamic trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci area. This pattern mirrors past instances, indicating the significance of this confluence. Furthermore, in the H4 timeframe, the price appears to be emerging from the oversold RSI zone, suggesting a potential shift in momentum. Investors are keenly watching upcoming data releases, particularly the USD Core Retail Sales and the USD Industrial Production m/m, which are expected to influence market sentiment. Market Dynamics: Mixed perspectives on inflation and interest rates from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are adding to the factors influencing the shared currency. This nuanced stance contributes to the observed downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Forecast: Despite the challenges, our forecast for EUR/USD remains bullish. The technical indicators, combined with potential market drivers, suggest a favorable outlook for the Euro against the US Dollar. Investors will be closely monitoring developments to gauge the sustainability of this recovery and any potential shifts in market sentiment. Our preference Long positions above 61.8% Fibo with targets at 1.10170 & 1.1140 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
💡 EURUSD: Forecast January 16EURUSD continues to fluctuate in a narrow range, not creating new notable signals. However, the fact that the price has accumulated for too long around the lower border of the rising channel combined with the previous strong falling wave shows that the risk of breakdown is increasing. Bulls need to keep SL below 1.09 for existing long positions, guarding against the possibility of a price decline. If this happens, the short-term target for bears is around 1.075.
Long
by Stone_Haven