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Eurshort

EURGBP LONG TERM SHORT: Fundamental and TechnicalTechnically EURGBP is overvalued, trading outside 800 period BB on the daily chart. Long term bearish divergence is seen towards 0.90 and 0.92. Targets = 0.86 (missed monthly pivot) and 0.81 (missed monthly pivot) with profit being taken every 100 pips along the way to these targets. Fundamentally the Euro should remain under pressure since Draghi has not changed his stance on QE and rates. This may change in December, however. More importantly, the BoE should not cut interest rates further in the wake of strong UK data since Brexit. This should support Sterling.
Short
by Exercise-Discipline
EURUSD Daily Short setupWhy? Broken bullish trendline, should as act resistance. 61.8 fibo retrace Structure, previous support, should act as resistance Bearish trendline, should act as resistance What more would I want? I'd prefer RSI to show even more overbought, but still, enough to hold my case. Taking profit above previous structure support. NFP tomorrow, but since this trade is on the daily I'll leave it to its fate. Oh, noticed the bat? I'll leave it there for motivation. :)
Short
by timmynorin
3
EURJPY 4H Short SetupWe have lots of fun stuff going on here. Price is heading into previous structure and resistance zone which have proven itself several times in the past. We have a bearish gartley just about to reach its D completion - which in turns comes very close to the previous, broken, bullish trendline which also should act as resistance. Looking at the hourly we've also reached a overbought condition . And to tie things up we have a nice round number in our favor - 114.000. Which also is my entrypoint! Happy trading!
Short
by timmynorin
KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE ON THE EURUSD - NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YETKEEPING THINGS SIMPLE ON THE EURUSD - NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET (1 day, log scale) As said previously, I couldn't even believe EUR would show itself to be THIS strong. Well, it turned out to be short-lived. At least for now. Let's see where we stand. It's not all that negative :o) - ever since the EURUSD is looking for support - but hasn't found it yet - the RSI did not yet get into oversold levels. That is a positive for EURUSD I am still staying flat, since overhead resistance is near while a retest to the downsied (1.10) seems likely. A breaking of 1.12 would mean a more positive tone for EUR, since the internals haven't been crushed - in fact, they are quite OK. In all: I will keep my patience to enter, 1.10 might be a nice one to enter long, or alternatively long on a break of 1.12 (support would then have been found & short term resistance broken).
by Consigliere_Constantino
1
STUMBLING THE EURUSD legs by the MONTHLet's look at the really big picture here on the EUR/USD- the MONTHLY chart (log scale). Note: this is of course NOT suitable for trading. Beware. Usage: - protecting your savings (by going into USD) - determining the overall trend (which pressure prevails, when going down to lower time frames?) - as well as determining important support & resistance levels we might otherwise forget about. Concluding: continued downside pressure is what you'd be looking for,, the current frenzy in EURUSD is NOT changing that at all. When trading the shorter swings, positions to the downside should be taken around 1.19 / 1.21 (now compare these levels to those on the daily chart - hey, surprise!). I am convinced those levels won't be breached, setting us up for the next leg down to parity. By then.... PERHAPS.... a positive RSI divergence can form (but this is even farther ahead people!) Fib target level: 1.007 Personally, fundamentally speaking (!) I would not be surprised to see that break, too. To then see the EURUSD retrace all the way to approx. 0.90). However, that's highly speculative and there's NO way of telling so from this chart. A collapse in Euroland might cause it, or a worldwide flee into the 'safe' USD might be a cause too. The good thing: as long as we stay alive, we shall see it either happening - or not. The market will tell. On a final note: there is definitely NO positive RSI divergence yet. On the contrary: the RSI is now just CONFIRMING the negative mode for EURUSD. Continued pressure DOWN is therefore what you'd be looking for.
Short
by Consigliere_Constantino
1
STUMBLING the EURUSD legs by the MONTHLet's look at the really big picture here on the EUR/USD- the MONTHLY chart (log scale). Note: this is of course NOT suitable for trading. Beware. Usage: - protecting your savings (by going into USD) - determining the overall trend (which pressure prevails, when going down to lower time frames?) - as well as determining important support & resistance levels we might otherwise forget about. Within the orange box, one could still have argued, EURUSD is in a "corrective phase" (though being violent). That all ended in January 2015 (price breakdown) but which was warned of by the RSI as early as in September 2015 (RSI support line break). Fib target level: 1.007 Personally, fundamentally speaking (!) I would not be surprised to see that break, too. To then see the EURUSD retrace all the way to approx. 0.90). However, that's highly speculative and there's NO way of telling so from this chart. A collapse in Euroland might cause it, or a worldwide flee into the 'safe' USD might be a cause too. The good thing: as long as we stay alive, we shall see it either happening - or not. There is definitely NO positive RSI divergence yet. On the contrary: the RSI is now just CONFIRMING the negative mode for EURUSD. Continued pressure DOWN is therefore what you'd be looking for. Concluding: continued downside pressure is what you'd be looking for. When trading the shorter swings, positions to the downside therefore bear the weigth of the monthly with them.
Short
by Consigliere_Constantino
STUMBLING the EURUSD LEGS by the day / updateKEEPING THINGS SIMPLE ON THE EURUSD / UPDATE (1 day, log scale) ( little has changed, things working out as expected ) -the April/May negative divergence worked out -price was meeting resistance in June turned down as expected -at the time, RSI was just slightly at overbought levels (I would prefer a larger RSI overbought reading for a start of an uptrend) -we are seeing lower highs. The sequence of lower lows , however, was stopped at the target that I previously indicated (1.08) - this recent upswing has even been showing some bloody strength - as expected, the larger time frame (which is in bearish mode) seem to take over again: down - don't be surprised, though, to see some further choppiness - might even touch the resitance line once more. At such a point, however, I tend to expect the RSI not providing any evidence of a strong trend. In other words: perhaps some further choppiness (who knows these days) but the longer term trend will take over again. The 1.08 target is inevitable (which is not to say 1.05 or possibly even parity are out of the window, it's just that those levels are a tad less likely for now - we need a clear break of 1.08 for that to come into play. It could happen fast, though, once markets realize that "the Greece issue" is FAR from over - even worse: the Greece issue is getting bigger by the day. We just won't admit it).
Short
by Consigliere_Constantino