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KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE ON THE EURUD - BOREDOME BEFORE THE STORM?KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE ON THE EURUSD - BOREDOM BEFORE THE STORM ? (1 day, log scale) As said previously, the short-lived upward thrust for EUR into $1.17 has not been able to materialize. EURUSD is on the daily chart stil gyrating. Granted, 1.04/1.05 has again provided support, and so did the 1.105 provode resistance / did the 1.08 level provide support again. RSI divergences taking place on both sides... It's simply in a sideways market. Still. In all: I'd expect this thing to visit 1.08 again, 1.10 again, and anticipate a short visit to the upside (1.11 level, perhaps even overshoot to 1.12?) but this is only to complete the retracement from the previous fierce leg down, which started Oct. 15th at the 1.15 high, and ended on "D-Day" ;-) at 1.05. Note the Fib resistancelevel lining up with previous resistance. On the far bigger MONTHLY picture (see other chart) things look south (much) further. But let's first end this shorter leg up.
by Consigliere_Constantino
Whats to come for EURUSD?Well.. doesnt need much explenation still we are all trying to work out the implications of FED/ECB relationship and their monetary policy but one thing seems like the USD is not giving up! making terrain across the majors today after the announcement could still TOO EARLY to call it and I am SOO! looking forward to hear from the CTF report next to see how orders and contracts performed over the FED announcement week but seems like USD long order owners dont really want to give up upon their positions yet. we havent really seen any new positionament in the USDx so I guess this is because they still digesting and wondering what to do. the LONG term picture still bearish bias as I am not expecting a break over 1,12 anytime soon after we retested the 1,1011-60 area over the past few days and it was empty of bids around there... still we could see a reversal... either because ECB becomes more hawkish (sudently) or because USD long positions get trimmed off and some earnings are taken before Xmas. too soon to call it but it will deffinetly be interesting!
by SolidSnake
STUMBLING THE EUR/USD LEGS - long term, by the monthLet's look at the really big picture again on the EUR/USD- the MONTHLY chart (log scale). Note: this is of course NOT suitable for trading. Beware. Usage: - protecting your savings (by going into USD) - determining the overall trend (which pressure prevails, when going down to lower time frames?) - as well as determining important support & resistance levels we might otherwise forget about. Concluding: continued downside pressure is what you'd be looking for,, the current frenzy in EURUSD is NOT changing that at all. When trading the shorter swings, positions to the downside should be taken around 1.12 / 1.19 (if it ever gets that far). I am convinced the latter level won't be breached after this Fed day, setting us up for the next long term leg down towards parity. By then.... a positive RSI divergence might be giving a screaming buy - but we're far from that. FYI: I've been pulling my EUR assets into USD assets. Long term, I mean - not relating to trading. This is not going to end well in the long run...
Short
by Consigliere_Constantino
A Big Move Coming?This is a great lesson for those who want to get on a good trade. Look at the monthly chart. Not since 2001-2002 have we seen a nice wedge pattern like the current. But more importantly look how far price moved when it broke. We expect the same with this current pattern. You don't have to catch the break...rather drop down to a smaller time frame (Daily or 4 hour) and take trades IN THE DIRECTION of the break. DON'T fight the momentum. Keep a close eye on it.
E
by OffTheFloorTrader
Fake confirmedWe look at the Weekly chart of the Euro and last weeks trading suggests more downside. Understand that the selling that happened last week and the fact that we are back inside the wedge suggest more selling is coming. We will look for bounces to resistance and look for TRIGGERS. If they take another stab at a breakout watch the high of last week. If we reach that high then the sellers have dried up and we should get a nice pop. For now we look for shorts back to the bottom of the wedge.
E
by OffTheFloorTrader
1
Why isn't the Euro weaker?It could be said that it is slightly strange that the Euro isn't weaker. As of writing, EURUSD is trading at 1.1040 after seeing lows of 1.0458 back in February 2015. From March last year until February this year, EURUSD was in a very steep downtrend with a range of ~3500 pips. Since then, the pair has remained relatively stagnant, after seeing a bounce off of the 1.0460 level. With the Greek situation weighing and another round of Quantitative Easing, you probably would have thought that the Euro would have been much weaker. However that is not the case, evidently. We have 3 fundamental beliefs with regards to this. 1) The market has been poised for a US rate hike for a while. However, to justify a rate hike, consistently strong data has to be printed, but the US has not been able to achieve this as of yet. Combined with this, short term rate differentials would in fact suggest that EURUSD should be above current levels, as well as inflation expectations. These correlations are slightly weak, however. 2) Uncertainty in Greece is causing indecisiveness. Investors do not actually know how Greece will leave the Eurozone, as it has never been done before and there is no real procedure for a country to leave. On the flip side, Tsipras has suggested an extra EUR 60bn to be provided to Greece for the next 3 years. This seems like it would not solve the underlying problem and merely extend the time it takes to pay their creditors. Investors are aware of this. This uncertainty could be causing the lack of Euro weakness. If and when a deal is reached, a rally and fade could most probably occur (i.e a spike in price and then a fall). A good quote for why this situation is taking so long to resolve: 'if you owe the bank £500 it's your problem; if you owe the bank £5m it's their problem.' 3) Many people believed that the Eurozone would be like Japan in terms of reintroducing QE (deflation and QE for a long period of time). However, investors began unwinding short positions when they saw that Eurozone data was actually improving post-QE introduction. This lead to an increase in the price of the Euro which is still having an effect today. Please add comments. If you agree or disagree, I'd really like to hear it. www.admiralmarkets.com Follow us on Twitter: @AdmiralMarkets
by DavidBelleFX
10
European Stocks Outperforming US StocksEuropean stocks are out performing U.S. stocks. European stocks are up +7% in 2015 as of market close on 4/17/2015. The S&P 500 is up +1% in 2015. The global financial oligarchy has deemed the U.S. stock market's bull rally at 6+ years should now come to an end or at the very least, drastically slow down. Meanwhile, the coordinated central bank action is to allow Europe and other economies to devalue and start their own QE like programs. The Federal Reserve continues to claim that the economic data is setting the rate hike agenda but, after 3 months of economic data that shows a drastic slowdown in the U.S. economy, it's clear that the Fed is not setting their rate hike agenda from the economic data. An excellent way to profit off the global oligarchy agenda is to follow the QE and buy European stocks. Billions of dollars have already been pulled out of U.S. stocks and put to work in European stocks over the last couple of months. That trend will likely continue. Source: Stock Market Prediction For Week of April 20 2015 www.youtube.com
AMEX:SPY
by Lance_Jepsen
Fibo MAGIC in the EURUSD!! UNCANNY!!!EURUSD Monthly Chart - Apologies if the chart looks a bit busy but here are the main points. Fib Time Projection: The 2000 (Point X) - late 2004 (Point Y) uptrend lasted for 50 months. A correction ensued and the low was formed in late 2005 (Point Z). If we take the 50 month uptrend and Fib project it from Point Z then we can see that it has has the uncanny ability to time the tops and bottoms +/-3 months. Looking ahead in the future we can see that the 2.382 Fib Projection (2.382 x 50 months projected from Point Z) then we get an initial time objective for a major low in the Euro on October 2015, followed by the 2.618 Fib Projection that comes in at October 2016. Fib Price Projections: Measured triangle projection using the month to month closes comes in sub parity. This coincides with the downside Fib projections for the end of Wave C. Conclusion: Parity is a dead certain for the EURUSD with 0.9900 an also likely target. Once price gets there we could have a prolonged period of accumulation (basing pattern) by the smart money that should coincide with the Fib Time projections mentioned above.
by Legionnaire
CAC40 - At a Critical Long Term Inflection Point!!Looking at the Monthly chart of the CAC40 you can clearly see its heading into a Wall of Resistance. Fibonacci cluster, LT T-Line Resistance, Wedge Resistance and Price resistance. This is the real test for the CAC40 bulls. Clearly the bulls have the QE wind in their sails but it is PARAMOUNT that they confidently clear the Brick Wall. Tentative Elliott Wave Count on the chart suggests that this is an ideal end of wave target for a Wave C of B (Cycle degree). Definitely one to watch as the DAX (another major beneficiary of QE) is looking to be completing a Wave 5 of C count as well.
INDEX:CAC40
by Legionnaire
CAC 40 continuation pattern awaiting validation!!CAC 40 has seen some profit taking over the past couple of weeks and has formed an inverse H & S continuation pattern that is awaiting validation. A successful break and consecutive 2hr closes above 5104 could see the CAC head towards its measured target of 5277. Failure to validate the pattern and break below 5k is a bearish development that should see continued losses towards 4932 and potentially 4856. Holding a long view currently as long as 5k holds.
FX:FRA40Long
by Legionnaire