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Europe

Italy Has A ProblemLast week saw the break of a bear flag. We are now resting on downtrend support. The chart looks heavy at this point. Italian banks have major exposure to Turkey. Also, Italy threatens to drag the EU under. The Italians are not as docile as the Greeks - they do not care for whatever rules Brussels attempts to impose on them. Thus, my next target for capital flight is Italy. My first target is the 2016 lows. Should a bounce materialize, I will be confident in shorting it. For now, I'm short from within the flag.
FOREXCOM:IT40Short
by TheRealPeaches
ITALY, BREXIT AND GERMAN ELECTIONSGER30, Daily and Weekly October 29, 2018 - Andria Pichidi Italy’s budget spat with the European Commission, and mounting concerns about the immediate fallout and the impact on capital positions of already stretched Italian banks, continue to put a strain on European markets and add to volatility. The Italian government may have inherited the remaining EUR 15 bln of a special fund previously set up to aid struggling banks, but the conflict threatens to once again undermine confidence in the Eurozone project as a whole, especially as the populist government continues to blame ECB and EU Institutions for its problems. ECB’s Draghi may be cautiously optimistic that a solution will be found eventually, but for investors the conflict adds to concerns about the stability of the Eurozone as a whole and contagion fears continue to linger especially as the risk of a hard Brexit also remains uncomfortably high. Against that background Italy’s BTP auction on Tuesday will be watched very carefully. Lurking behind the spat between Rome and Brussels are concerns that European populist parties are also fuelling tensions in order to lift their profile and position themselves ahead of the European Parliament elections next year. At the same time the coalition government in Germany is looking increasingly shaky and Chancellor Merkel’s position far from secured. After the electorate delivered a painful blow to the coalition partners at last week’s Bavarian election there are fears that a similarly disastrous result in Sunday’s poll in the state of Hesse will spell the beginning of the end for the government in Berlin and Merkel’s political career. More potential political uncertainty then at a time when markets are already struggling to find a new equilibrium. As stock markets continue to struggle after the Asian session, GER30 and UK100 futures are moving higher for the 3rd consecutive day, despite ongoing losses in US futures. The German benchmark (GER30) is up by 0.40% so far today, reaching Tuesday’s highs at 11,411.90. This could provide some Resistance to the Index, and we might see a swing back lower at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level set from 2-year low. The medium term outlook for the pair remains strongly negative as the asset closed on Friday below the 200-week MA, at 11,487.00, which could be another barrier on the recent upside movement. The negative bias is also supported by the confirmation of a head and shoulder formation at the beginning of October, on the break of pattern’s trendline at 11,700.0. Therefore in the medium term, the Index is expected to move lower, towards the 61.8% Fib. level, at 11,577.70 A bullish scenario could be confirmed only once we see a Support at the 50.0% Fib. level, along with a break above the 11,955.70, which is the confluence of FE61.8 since March 25 and the 50-day SMA. Such a break could signal the turn of the outlook from bearish to bullish. Nevertheless, this week’s round of data, including the first reading of Eurozone GDP growth for Q3, is expected to confirm the picture of still robust but slowing growth momentum. At the same time, it will also highlight signs that underlying inflation is picking up. The ECB’s very dovish stance throughout the crisis is starting to haunt the central bank now as it failed to rein in stimulus early enough and continued to expand the balance sheet through a period when growth was above target, while it is now scaling back support at a time when negative risks are stacking up. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
XETR:DAXLong
by HotForex
2
Dollar Strength into 2019 - Short Eur/UsdLooking for a change of the Euros Bullish trend into 2019. Long-term targets around 2017 lows of near parity with the US dollar. Near-term targets are from the 2017 - 2018 fib extension 61.8 around 1.12 flat & 1.0850. Stops should be kept above the current weekly ashi candle as we do not want to be in this if there is a weekly trend change. A breach of the 1.15 level would reject this trade. I will keep this updated as we go further into the trade. Currently in at: 1.1550.
Short
by JoeyycC
Eurostoxx is showing signs of breaking downLast week I was cautiously optimistic that the EuroStoxx would move higher to 3500, and possibly break from there to complete the mini (inverted) head and shoulders that can be identified since the 30th October 2017. However this week's action adds to a more bearish, alternative path. The blue support zone is a loosely defined price range of significance; this area has repeatedly acted as a support over the last 12 months. Since the January 2018 correction, all subsequent rallies from this range have failed. The index is now for the sixth time in this blue support zone. Moving averages, RSI and price are all negatively aligned. Today's price movement is also completing a head and shoulders pattern that has developed since January 2017.
TVC:SX5EShort
by MVedra
Short Euro Stoxx 50 - Downside volitility!See confluence of 50MA (h4) , previously inflected horiz resistance & 50% retracement. I have went short here at yesterdays open. SL placed just above market high. This will moved once I see a reaction to the downside further improving my R:R on the trade. I always place my SL's at the point where my opinion is proved wrong. If a new high is printed here then my opinion of a downside confutation is incorrect. My target will be a retest of the local market low. We can see there is volatility to the downside here (swift moved to the downside last week followed by a weak upside move. Zooming out to a macro view - there is a case for a larger H&S forming.
TVC:SX5EShort
by ColinGallaghere5
1
EURUSD - It cant get any better than this - GO LONGThis is multi month position so dont expect Daily or worst hourly returns I am predicting nearly 10% rise in the EUR price to cap at 1.26 in the coming months This is very Lucrative and very less risk position as the STOP is just around 0.5% near 1.1350 BUY at market @ 1.1430-1.1400 and Hold for first target of 1.17 and if a break comes (most likely this time) then continue holding the position till yearend ***** ALL MY YEARLY USD TARGETS HAVE MET ***** Recommending a SELL ON USDJPY, USDTRY (for BIGGEST RETURNS), BUY of GBPUSD, EURUSD
Long
by UnknownUnicorn1616991
9
German Stock Index DAX (Aug 2018) (Can Swing Back Up)This will be my views of German Stock Index DAX Aug 2018. Please make sure to read the "update" comment as there will be changes along the way. You are welcome to "Like" and "Comment". Cheers. S0nic Disclaimer: The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. We, Sonicr Mastery dot com is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by SonicDeejay
3