EURUSD 3/11/24This week, our bias on the Euro has shifted from short to long. This change is based on observing a shift in the higher time frame structure, as institutions appear to be showing interest in buying. Whether this move will be short-term or long-term remains to be seen. We’ll watch the price action in the first sessions of the week to get a clearer idea.
Please note, this analysis follows the same principles and bias approach as always. Currently, there are no unmitigated demand areas on the 4-hour chart, and only a short-term supply area has formed. The area of demand we’ve highlighted is present only on the 1-hour chart, making it more of a smaller time frame reference than a higher one. We’ve marked key liquidity levels, which will serve as our reference points for potential upward movement this week.
If the price interacts with the 1-hour demand area, we’ll aim for the high at the top of the current range. While I’m ultimately looking for a longer-term upward move, a pullback beforehand is possible.
Stick to your plan and manage your risk.
Euro
Creating your Trading Plan🔸Creating a comprehensive trading plan is a foundational step for any trader, whether you are involved in forex, stocks, options, or crypto markets. A well-structured trading plan outlines your trading goals, strategy, risk management protocols, and the psychological mindset necessary for success. Let’s break down the core components: strategy, risk management, psychology, and confluence.
1. Trading Plan Strategy
A trading strategy is a set of rules or guidelines you follow to identify, enter, and exit trades. Here are the elements to consider:
▪️Market Selection: Define which markets you will trade (e.g., forex pairs, stocks, cryptocurrencies) and what your time frames will be.
▪️Trading Style: Will you be a day trader, swing trader, or a long-term investor? Your style will influence your strategy.
▪️Entry and Exit Rules: Specify the technical or fundamental indicators that will trigger your trades. For example, you might use moving average crossovers, support and resistance levels, or candlestick patterns for entry and exit points.
▪️Trade Execution: Outline how you will place trades and manage your orders (e.g., market orders, limit orders, trailing stops).
▪️Backtesting: Before committing real money, test your strategy on historical data to understand its effectiveness.
▪️Example: Suppose your strategy involves trading breakouts. You would define what constitutes a breakout, how to confirm it, and the risk/reward ratio you expect before taking a trade.
2. Risk Management
Risk management is about preserving your capital and minimizing losses. It's a critical part of any trading plan and focuses on controlling how much you stand to lose on each trade and how to protect your account over time.
▪️Position Sizing: Determine how much of your capital you will risk per trade. Many traders risk no more than 1-2% of their total capital on a single trade.
▪️Stop Losses and Take Profits: Always use a stop-loss to cap potential losses and set a take-profit order to lock in gains. This should be part of your trading strategy.
▪️Risk/Reward Ratio: Ensure that the potential reward on a trade is worth the risk. A common minimum risk/reward ratio is 1:2, meaning you risk 1 unit of currency to make 2. Diversification: Spread your risk by trading multiple assets or markets instead of concentrating all your capital in a single trade or asset class.
▪️Example: If your account balance is $10,000, and you decide to risk 2% per trade, the maximum loss you would accept on any trade would be $200. This would dictate your stop-loss placement and position size.
3. Trading Psychology
The psychological aspect of trading is often underestimated, but emotions can greatly impact your decision-making. Maintaining a disciplined and objective mindset is crucial.
▪️Emotional Discipline: Avoid trading based on fear, greed, or impatience. Develop routines that keep your emotions in check.
▪️Handling Losses: Accept that losses are part of trading and learn not to let them affect your confidence or decision-making. Sticking to your plan, even after a loss, is crucial.
▪️Confidence and Patience: Build confidence in your strategy through thorough backtesting and practice. Be patient and wait for high-probability setups.
▪️Avoid Overtrading: This happens when traders try to chase losses or enter trades impulsively. Stick to your plan and don’t trade just for the sake of it.
▪️Example: If you find yourself becoming anxious or stressed during a losing streak, take a break from trading to reassess your mindset. Practicing mindfulness or keeping a trading journal to reflect on your emotions can be very helpful.
4. Confluence
Confluence in trading refers to multiple factors or signals aligning to indicate a strong trade setup. Relying on confluence increases the probability of a trade working in your favor.
▪️Technical Confluence: This might include a combination of support/resistance levels, Fibonacci retracement levels, moving averages, or chart patterns lining up to give you a higher confidence trade.
▪️Fundamental and Technical Confluence: Sometimes, combining technical analysis with fundamental data can strengthen your trade setup. For instance, a bullish technical setup supported by positive economic news.
▪️Multiple Time Frame Analysis: Check if your trade setup looks strong on multiple time frames. For example, a bullish signal on a daily chart confirmed by a shorter time frame like 4-hour or 1-hour charts.
▪️Example: Imagine you see a bullish reversal candlestick pattern at a major support level, and your moving average indicates an upward trend. This confluence of signals might give you more confidence to enter a long position.
🔸Putting It All Together
A successful trading plan ties these elements together to give you a clear roadmap. Here’s a simplified example of a trading plan:
🔸Goal: Achieve 5% account growth per month.
Market: Trade major forex pairs (e.g., EUR/USD, GBP/USD) during the London and New York sessions.
🔸Strategy: Use a breakout strategy confirmed by volume and momentum indicators. Enter trades when a breakout occurs from a key support/resistance level.
🔸Risk Management: Risk 1.5% of the account balance per trade. Use a 1:2 risk/reward ratio.
🔸Psychology: Practice emotional discipline. Use a trading journal to record trades and emotions.
🔸Confluence: Only take trades when at least three confluence factors align (e.g., breakout, volume increase, trend confirmation).
🔸By crafting and following a trading plan that incorporates strategy, risk management, psychology, and confluence, you increase your chances of trading success while minimizing potential losses.
Euro can fall to support level and then start to move upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price fell to the seller zone, which coincided with the resistance level and at once rebounded up. Price in a short time rose to 1.1210 points and then turned around and started to decline inside the downward channel. In the channel, the price soon broke the 1.1085 level and then fell almost the support line of the channel, after which EUR bounced and continued to decline. Later Euro fell to the support level, which coincided with the support line of the downward channel with the buyer zone. After this, the price continued to decline and soon, broke the 1.0810 level and entered to buyer zone, after which turned around, and some time traded between support level. Last time, the price fell to the buyer zone and then rebounded up, thereby breaking the 1.0810 level again, and then exited from the channel too. At the moment, I think that Euro can correct to a support level and then start to grow. For this case, I set my TP at 1.0980 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Smart Money Trading concepts 101🔸The Smart Money Trading concept, often used in Forex and stock trading, revolves around the idea of tracking the moves made by major institutional players (like banks, hedge funds, and large financial institutions) rather than retail investors. Smart money strategies aim to identify and follow the price action patterns that large investors create, as these institutions often have access to more market-moving information and capital than individual traders.
🔸A critical part of this approach is understanding market structure, which includes concepts like Higher Highs (HH) and Lower Lows (LL). These patterns help traders determine the current trend direction and potential reversals, which can inform trading decisions.
Here's how these concepts fit into the Smart Money Trading framework:
1. Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) in an Uptrend
▪️When the market is in an uptrend, it typically forms a series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows:
Higher High (HH): Each new peak in the price is higher than the previous peak.
Higher Low (HL): Each new low is also higher than the previous low.
▪️This pattern signifies strong buying interest, indicating that smart money may be accumulating positions in anticipation of further price increases.
▪️Traders look for breakouts beyond previous highs, as it often signifies a continuation of the uptrend.
▪️If the price breaks a recent Higher Low, it may indicate potential weakness and a possible trend reversal.
2. Lower Lows (LL) and Lower Highs (LH) in a Downtrend
▪️In a downtrend, the market structure often forms Lower Lows and Lower Highs:
Lower Low (LL): Each new low is lower than the previous low.
Lower High (LH): Each high in the price action is also lower than the previous high.
▪️This pattern signals that selling pressure is dominant, suggesting that institutional investors might be offloading positions.
▪️Traders watch for prices to break the most recent Lower High for potential continuation signals in the downtrend.
▪️If the price breaks above the most recent Lower High, it can indicate that the trend may be weakening, signaling a potential reversal or entry opportunity.
3. Using HH and LL to Spot Trend Reversals
▪️Trend Reversal: When a series of HH and HL in an uptrend shifts to LH and LL (or vice versa), it often signals that a reversal is underway.
▪️Smart Money traders use these shifts to spot market traps where retail traders might be misled, allowing them to capitalize on new trend directions as they unfold.
4. Smart Money Concepts in Action: Liquidity and Price Action
▪️Large players need liquidity to execute significant trades without causing excessive slippage (or price movement). This liquidity often exists near recent highs and lows.
▪️By analyzing HH, HL, LH, and LL patterns, smart money traders can identify areas of liquidity where institutions might step in.
▪️For example, a series of HHs might attract retail buyers, providing liquidity for smart money to enter or exit positions.
5. Application in Trading
▪️By following HH and LL patterns, traders can align their positions with smart money rather than getting caught in fakeouts or market traps.
▪️Traders often combine these patterns with other indicators (like volume, order blocks, or support and resistance) to confirm the presence of institutional involvement.
🔸The Smart Money approach relies heavily on understanding and interpreting these HH and LL structures to trade in sync with the institutions, avoiding common pitfalls that trap many retail traders.
Analyzing the EUR/USD on the 30-minute timeframethe EUR/USD on the 30-minute timeframe, the pair is currently in a downtrend but has not yet reached the green support zone. If the price returns to this zone, it could attract buyers, potentially pushing the price upward. This scenario may present a long opportunity, provided there's a confirmation signal before entry.
Key Points:
Current Trend: Downward movement towards support.
Support Zone: Identified in green on the chart.
Potential Action: Look for bullish confirmation signals upon price reaching the support zone before considering a long position.
Always ensure proper risk management and wait for clear confirmation before entering a trade.
EURUSD Short term buy inside a Channel Up.EURUSD is trading inside a Channel Up.
The price has falled by -0.55%, same amount as the October 25th-28th pull back.
That was a short term buy opportunity that targeted the 0.786 Fibonacci.
The MA200 (1h) is supporting just below.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.08750 (Fibonacci 0.786 level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is about to turn oversold. That has been the most effective buy signal on the last 3 lows (October 29th, 28th and 23rd).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
HelenP. I Euro will make small correction and continue move upHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics.A few days ago price entered to consolidation, where it at once reached the top part and then dropped to the 1.1040 level, which coincided with the bottom part of the flat with the resistance zone. Then EUR tried to grow, but failed and fell to the resistance zone, after which turned around and in a short time backed up to range. Later price rose to the top part of the consolidation again, where then it reached the trend line and then started to decline. Euro exited from consolidation, breaking the 1.1040 level, and continued to decline. In a short time later, the price fell to the support level, which coincided with the support zone. Soon, the price broke this level and some time traded between, after which rebounded up, breaking the 1.0810 level with the trend line. To this day, the price continues to grow, so, I expect that EURUSD will make the small correction and then continue to grow next. So, that's why I set my goal at 1.0975 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURO - Price can move up to resistance level and continue fallHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A not long time ago price entered to falling channel, where some time declined near resistance line of channel.
Later it bounced and fell to support line of channel, but soon backed up to resistance line, after which continued to fall.
Soon, Euro broke $1.0840 level, which coincided with resistance zone, and exited from falling channel.
Then price started to trades inside flat, where it declined to support area and then bounced up to $1.0840 level.
After this, price made a correction and then backed up to this level, but recently started to decline.
In my mind, EUR can make movement up to resistance level and then continue to fall to $1.0765
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EUR/USD: Euro Gains Amid German Growth, Weak US GDPOn Wednesday, the Euro extended its rally, driven by positive economic data from Germany and the dampening effect of a weaker-than-expected US GDP figure. Germany’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded a modest 0.2% growth, indicating resilience in Europe’s largest economy. Furthermore, annual inflation in Germany, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), showed a significant rise, moving up to 2% in October’s preliminary estimate from 1.6% in September. This uptick in inflation adds to the bullish sentiment surrounding the Euro, as it hints at economic stability and a possible need for continued monetary tightening in the Eurozone.
From a technical analysis perspective, the Euro remains in a profitable position from our identified demand area, where a reversal pattern was noted. The DXY (US Dollar Index) continues to retrace, suggesting potential weakening of the USD, while the COT (Commitments of Traders) report further supports our bullish Euro outlook. Given the ongoing trend, a negative reading in today’s US Unemployment Claims report could provide additional momentum for the Euro’s upward trajectory, potentially solidifying the current trend in favor of the Euro.
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Rising Euro until the end of next WEEK | FOMC & ELECTIONI could see a rising EUR/USD until the end of next week which could lead into a mean reversion on the 1D timeframe. After this run we will see the continuation of the overall downtrend again. This will only be a small retrace. Right now it also looks like we are making a local short term bottom.
Yes, it works on all timeframes... (ICT Concepts)In this video I just demonstrate a scalp based off of my process of of DOL>CS>Entry, and I do this on EURUSD, which is one of the pairs I have most experience in.
It is relatively simple and everything is explained in the video. If there are any questions, feel free to drop a comment.
- R2F
EURUSD: First 1H Golden Cross formed in 6 weeks.EURUSD may be marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.367, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 65.014) but on 1H it is cruising to the RSI overbought level as it formed the first 1H Golden Cross since September 15th. Technically it is a bullish pattern but short term the price has to overcome the S1 level (just hit it) and an almost overbought 4H RSI. This may give you the last opportunity to buy and target the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 1.10385), which has been the minimum target on every 1H Golden Cross since August.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Euro and its movement towards depthAccording to the economic data that was published recently and in the last two weeks, it seems that the euro will continue its downward movement. The two yellow and red paths are the possible paths of the euro towards the goals written in the chart. Capital management should always be your top priority.
EURO - Price can bounce down from resistance area to $1.0680Hi guys, this is my overview for Euro, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few days ago price entered to rising channel, where it rose to $1.1075 level and broke it, after which continued to grow.
Then price made a fake breakout of resistance line of channel, after which fell to support line of channel.
Then it rose to resistance line and then started to decline to support line, breaking $1.1075 level.
Also then, price exited from channel and fell to $1.0840 level, broke it, and declined to support line.
But then it bounced and rose to $1.0840 level, after which recently, EUR turned around and continued to fall.
Possibly, price can grow to resistance area and then bounce down to $1.0680 support line.
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It could be the euro's time to shineThis may not be a popular theme, but that is usually the case at turning points. Like it or not, EUR/USD bears have failed to break the August low, and the rally on the USD index and yields looks exhausted. Every trend needs a retracement, and I suspect a small one, at a minimum, is due.
MS.
EURUSD 4hour RSI Bullish Divergence.EURUSD has been struggling to break above the 1day MA50 but that shouldn't take long to do so, as the 4hour RSI is on a Channel Up (Bullish Divergence) since 10 days already.
Once the 1day MA50 breaks, we expect a 1day MA200 test, followed by a pull back before the final rise.
Our target is the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 1.10400.
Previous chart:
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Euro can rebound from buyer zone and start to growHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. By observing the chart, we can see that the price some days ago declined to the seller zone and then rebounded and rose to 1.1150 points, after which turned around and fell back. Then the price started to trades inside the wedge, where it rose from the support line in a short time to the resistance line and then turned around and started to decline. Soon, the price fell to the 1.1000 level, and broke it, after which price little time traded below and then continued to fall. In a short time, the EUR fell to the 1.0810 support level, which coincided with the buyer zone, and then bounced up. price tried to grow, but failed and then fell until to support line of a wedge, breaking the support level, but a not long time ago EUR rose back. Then the price reached the resistance line, bounced down to the buyer zone, and then rose back. Also recently, the price exited from the wedge and now trades very close to the resistance line of this pattern. In my opinion, the price can fall to the buyer zone and then rebound up. For this case, I set my TP at 1.0930 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀