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EUR/USD Still Under Pressure: Understanding Market DynamicsEUR/USD has recouped some of its daily losses, hovering around 1.0510 during the London trading session. Initially, the currency pair experienced a decline in response to deteriorating market sentiment triggered by President-elect Donald Trump's announcement of a proposed 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, as well as a 10% increase on all Chinese imports entering the United States. While the pair has made some recovery during the London session, a bearish outlook persists. The currency pair has suffered a substantial decline from the 1.0900 mark and faced resistance at the 1.0400 level, which serves as a key demand zone. There is potential for further downward movement, with the next significant demand area identified at 1.0100. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee has indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to pursue a strategy of lowering interest rates towards a neutral stance, one that neither stimulates nor restricts economic growth. Meanwhile, market expectations have fully incorporated a 25 basis point cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in December. Moreover, the probability of a more significant 50 basis point reduction has surged to 58%, reflecting growing market concerns about the economic outlook in the region. From our perspective, further declines in the currency pair could be anticipated. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Silver Strategic Outlook 2025: Bulls will Target $40 USD 50% BUY🔸Hello guys, today let's review D1 price chart for SILVER. 5 waves impulse in progress, currently wave 3 completed and we are entering wave 4 pullback / re-accumulation stage right now. 🔸Well defined 5 waves structure, with two re-accumulation zones in wave 2 / wave 4. Impulse projected to end in 2025 with wave 5 and bulls will target 40 USD. 40 USD will cap the upside in precious metals and will result in ABC correction in 2026. 🔸Recommended strategy position traders: BULLS should focus on buying low from the lows of the re-accumulation zone, so the best entry to BUY/HOLD is near 27/28 USD. TP is 40 USD. 50% unlevereged upside in this trade. good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
17
Euro showing decline ahead of November CPI The euro is trending downward as the market anticipates the release of the Eurozone CPI for November this week. This decline is driven by rising uncertainty regarding the Eurozone economy, an apparent slowdown in inflation, and an increasing likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the ECB. French Central Bank Governor Villeroy de Galhau has stated that the ECB has the capability to cut rates independently of the Fed's monetary policy direction. He added that successive rate reductions are on the table as European inflation continues to ease. EURUSD declined sharply and briefly fell to 1.0330, the two-year low. EMA21 rapidly widened the gap with EMA78, showing an apparent bearish momentum. If EURUSD breaks below the descending channel’s lower bound and 1.0330, the price may fall further to the 1.0000 parity level. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches above the resistance at 1.0540 and EMA21, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.0670.
by inkicho_exness
EURUSD Today's 1D Death Cross turning into a 3 month rally!The EURUSD pair is having a strong bullish reversal after marginally breaking on Friday below the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Down. The 1W RSI got marginally oversold (below 30.00), which is a technical buy level. So far it is similar to the October 03 2023 bottom, which was formed on a 1D Death Cross, exactly the kind of pattern that is being completed today! That bottom initiated a strong 3-month rally that hit the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Our long-term Target is 1.08765 (Fib 0.618). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
EURUSD 25/11/24Starting the week a little later than usual with a markup on EUR/USD. Following weeks and months of bearish price action, we continue to anticipate further downside movement. This outlook aligns with our daily bias, which indicates a bearish trend. The market opened with a significant gap to the upside across most brokers, increasing the likelihood of the gap being closed. Additionally, there is an untapped supply area above the current price level. Two liquidity highs are situated above this area, suggesting a potential pullback to liquidate these levels. If this occurs, we will look for continued sell-side movement. However, pullbacks are not guaranteed during trending conditions. If the price continues to expand downward without retracing, our first target will be the gap left open at the market's opening. Beyond that, we will focus on the major low marked at the base of the current move. Please be mindful of key fundamental events this week, as they may cause a midweek shift in our bias. For now, our outlook remains bearish, and we are focused on identifying sell opportunities. Refer to the points on our charts for guidance on potential downside movement. If the supply area and liquidity highs are reached but fail to trigger a bearish shift, it may signal a deeper pullback on higher timeframes. Stick to your plan, manage your risk, and trade safely. Wishing you an amazing trading week!
by PipSurfingSociety
EUR/USD Outlook: Strong Demand and Uncertain Economic SignalsThe EUR/USD pair has experienced a notable rebound, aligning with our previous outlook as it approached a robust weekly demand zone at the onset of the new weekly candle, marked by a bullish gap. Recent data from Germany indicates a decline in the IFO Current Assessment Index, dropping to 84.3 in November from 85.7. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index decreased slightly from 87.3 to 87.2. Despite these figures, the euro appears resilient, seemingly brushing off the negative data. On the other hand, downward pressure on the US dollar remains limited, fueled by recent economic indicators that suggest the Federal Reserve might be inclined to scale back the pace of interest rate cuts. This week’s unemployment claims data, set to be released on Wednesday, has the potential to move the markets significantly, especially if the figures come in more favorable than the forecast, which anticipates an uptick in unemployment. Interestingly, there is the possibility of an upward thrust in the weekly DXY chart, although it has yet to be confirmed by trading volumes. Given the current market dynamics, it may be prudent to hold off on making any moves until Wednesday. This will allow traders to assess potential retracement opportunities as the market may look to recover the gap created during the Asian session. EUR/USD Gap ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 25, 2024 EURUSDThe US Dollar may strengthen as the latest US PMI data reinforces the likelihood that the Fed will slow the pace of rate cuts. The Euro faced challenges as the latest HCOB PMI data pointed to continued weakness in Eurozone business activity. EUR/USD recovered from the two-year low of 1.0332 recorded on Friday and traded near 1.0480 during Monday's Asian session. The rebound could be attributed to a correction in the US Dollar (USD) despite strong preliminary S&P Global US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data released in the previous session. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, slipped to 107.00 after hitting a two-year high of 108.07 on Friday. However, downside risks to the U.S. dollar remain limited as recent economic data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may slow the pace of rate cuts. The S&P Global US PMI composite index rose to 55.3 in November, indicating the strongest growth in private sector activity since April 2022. The US Services PMI rose to 57.0 from 55.0 in October and well above market expectations of 55.2, marking the sharpest growth in the services sector since March 2022. Meanwhile, the US manufacturing PMI rose to 48.8 from 48.5 in October, matching market forecasts. Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0480, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
1
EUR/USD: Euro Weakens as the US Dollar Gains StrengthEUR/USD: Euro Weakens as the US Dollar Gains Strength The EUR/USD pair continued to decline last week, losing 2.8%. This marks another week of euro weakness, driven by poor economic data from the eurozone and strong US indicators that underscore the resilience of the American economy and reduce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Strong US Data Bolsters the Dollar Key economic data from the US reinforced the dollar’s strength, reflecting the underlying robustness of its economy: - Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): Reported at 213K, outperforming the 220K forecast, indicating a stable US labor market. - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Came in at 57.0, significantly above the 55.2 expectation, highlighting strong activity in the US services sector. These figures diminish the likelihood of imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, maintaining the dollar’s attractiveness to investors. Weak Eurozone Data Pressures the Euro On the other hand, disappointing data from the eurozone added considerable pressure on the euro: - HCOB Composite PMI Flash (Nov.): Dropped to 48.1 (below the 50 threshold indicating contraction), missing the forecast of 50. - HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (Nov.): Fell to 45.2, underperforming the expected 46. - HCOB Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Declined to 49.2, well below the 51.6 forecast. The eurozone’s sluggish growth, coupled with inflation stabilizing around 2%, makes a strong case for the European Central Bank (ECB) to accelerate rate cuts. With eurozone rates at 3.4% compared to 4.75% in the US, the dollar’s yield advantage makes it more appealing to investors. Policy Divergence and Trade Risks The divergence in monetary policy between the US and the eurozone is a significant driver of EUR/USD’s weakness. While the ECB seems poised to continue cutting rates, the Federal Reserve may slow its actions or even pause. Further boosting the dollar is the potential for future President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods, which could strengthen the US economy and delay rate cuts. Seasonality: A Possible Lifeline for EUR/USD Despite the euro’s bearish outlook, seasonality could offer some support to EUR/USD. Historically, December has often been a favorable month for the pair, which might provide temporary relief for the euro in the coming weeks. Conclusion EUR/USD remains under significant pressure due to weak eurozone data, monetary policy divergence, and the dollar’s relative strength. Unless there’s a major shift in economic dynamics or central bank decisions, the euro is likely to stay on the defensive. Will seasonal trends be enough to support the euro, or will the downward trajectory continue? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by InvestMate
1
6 Things to Do before you start Investing and Trading1. Build an Emergency Fund ▪️Why it's important: Having an emergency fund ensures you have a financial cushion for unexpected expenses (e.g., medical bills, car repairs, job loss). Without this safety net, you may be forced to sell investments or go into debt if something unforeseen happens. ▪️How to do it: Aim for 3-6 months' worth of living expenses in a liquid, easily accessible account like a savings account. Focus on saving first before putting money into investments. 2. Pay Down High-Interest Debt ▪️Why it's important: High-interest debt, especially from credit cards, can severely hinder your financial progress. The interest on these debts is often higher than the returns you could earn from investments in the short term. ▪️How to do it: Prioritize paying off high-interest debts first (e.g., credit cards), then move on to other debts like student loans or car loans. Consider strategies like the debt snowball or debt avalanche method. 3. Define Your Financial Goals and Priorities ▪️Why it's important: Knowing what you're investing for (e.g., retirement, a down payment on a house, education, or travel) will help you choose the right investment vehicles and timeframes. It also provides motivation and direction. ▪️How to do it: Set SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound) financial goals. Break them down into short-term, medium-term, and long-term goals. This helps you align your investments with your needs. 4. Know Your Cash Flow ▪️Why it's important: Understanding your income and expenses is essential for managing your finances and determining how much money you can consistently allocate to investing. If you don't have a clear picture of your cash flow, you might overextend yourself or miss opportunities. ▪️How to do it: Create a monthly budget to track your income, fixed expenses, and discretionary spending. Consider using a budgeting tool or app to make this process easier. Be honest about where you can cut back to free up funds for investing. 5. Track Your Net Worth ▪️Why it's important: Tracking your net worth gives you a clear picture of your overall financial health. It's a snapshot of what you own (assets) minus what you owe (liabilities). This helps you measure your progress over time and adjust as needed. ▪️How to do it: List all your assets (e.g., savings, investments, real estate) and liabilities (e.g., mortgages, student loans, credit card debt). Update this regularly to see how your financial situation is evolving. You can use free online tools or apps to make this process easier. 6. Understand the Basics of Investing and Trading ▪️Why it's important: If you're going to invest or trade, you need to understand the fundamental principles behind both activities. This includes knowledge of risk, returns, diversification, asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate), and how markets operate. ▪️How to do it: Read books, take online courses, or follow credible financial blogs and YouTube channels. It’s important to grasp concepts like risk tolerance, time horizon, and the different types of investments (stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, etc.). Understanding these principles will help you avoid common mistakes and make informed decisions.
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
5
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST OCT.25-29th: Look to Sell EURUSD!The EURO is weak, and has been for quite some time. Parity may be the destination, as it underperforms against the USD. The key will be not trying to pick the bottom, but looking for the end of an inevitable pullback! That will be a high probability sell entry! This will be a classic ERL to IRL move. External Range Liquidity to Internal Rang Liquidity... back to External Range Liquidity (for the Lower Low). Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME:6E1!Short
by RT_Money
2
HelenP. I Euro will make move up and then continue to declineHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. If we look at the chart we can see how the price entered to downward wedge, where it at once rebounded from the trend line and dropped to resistance 2. Then the price broke this level, after which turned around and rose back to resistance 2 and even rose a little higher. Euro some time traded inside the resistance zone, after which continued to decline inside the wedge, breaking resistance 2 one more time. Later price declined to one more resistance zone, which coincided with resistance 1, and then rebounded and started to trades near this area. Some time later, EUR reached the trend line, which is the resistance line of a wedge, and then turned around and continued to decline. In a short time, the price broke resistance 2 and dropped to the support line of the wedge, but recently it rebounded and started to grow. For this case, I expect that EURUSD will almost rise to the resistance level and then continue to decline inside a downward wedge. That's why I set my goal at 1.0300 points, which coincides with the support line of the wedge. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Short
by FirstNameHelen
5
Euro can reach seller zone and then start to decline to 1.0450Hello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see how the price traded inside the range, where it at once rebounded from the top part and started to decline to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone. Later, EUR entered to this area, where it reached the bottom part of the range and some time traded near, after which started to grow to the top part of the range. Also, when the price rose, it made a gap and after it reached the top part of the range, the EUR turned around and made impulse down. Price exited from the range broke the 1.0805 resistance level, and continued to decline inside the wedge. In this pattern, the price first rose to the resistance area and tried to break the 1.0805 level, but failed and continued to decline to the 1.0600 current resistance level. Soon, the price broke this level too and fell to the support line of the wedge, after which a not long time ago rebounded up. Now, the price trying to exit from the wedge, so, in my mind, the Euro can reach the seller zone and then turn around and start to decline. For this case, I set my TP at 1.0450 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
16
EURCHF Channel Down bottoming and giving a buy opportunity.The EURCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern on the 4H time-frame and is on its second Bearish Leg, pressured below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since November 08. Having hit the 0.236 Channel Fib, the current forming of Lower Lows is similar to the bottom pattern formed on October 01. Even the 4H RSI sequences between the two fractals are identical, both on a Double Bottom that was the signal to buy at that time. Our Target is 0.93500, still below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (blue), which was broken during the October rebound. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
EUR/USD Short Setup: Leveraging the Retrace for a Downtrend PlayEUR/USD has retraced slightly, offering a good entry point for a short trade. The pair remains bearish, trading below the 200-day MA, with strong resistance near 1.062 holding firm. Targeting the 1.0400 price area, this trade aligns with the broader downtrend, supported by both technical and fundamental factors. Technical Overview: The current trend is bearish, with the pair respecting lower highs and significant resistance at the 200-day MA. The initial target is set around 1.0495, with the long-term aim at 1.0400. Price action confirms a sell opportunity as the retrace reaches resistance areas. Fundamental Context: The U.S. Dollar has regained strength, driven by optimism around pro-growth policies and a solid DXY rally. Meanwhile, the Fed remains cautious on rate cuts, signaling slower changes ahead. In the Eurozone, the ECB continues a dovish approach, focusing on inflation concerns while speculative short positions on the Euro rise. This reinforces the bearish outlook for EUR/USD. Upcoming speeches and economic data, including Lagarde’s address and U.S. TIC flows, could further influence the pair’s movement. This short trade aims to capitalize on the retrace within a bearish structure. With clear resistance levels and supportive fundamentals, the setup targets a move toward 1.0400. Risk management remains key as market conditions evolve. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Short
by AR33_
4
EURUSD: Long term bottom formation. Target 1.09250.EURUSD is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 32.566, MACD = -0.011, ADX = 28.963) as despite the consolidation since last Thursday, it hasn't yet started to recover. This is however a common price action during bottom formation proccesses (like September and March 2023) and since the 1D RSI is on a bullish divergence (HL), we expect a rally to start soon. In the past rebounds that stopped initially on the HH trendline but for slightly lower risk we are targeting the November 5th High (TP = 1.09250), which started the recent selling. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
EURJPY bottomed on the 1D MA50. +5.40% upside potential.The EURJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the September 16 Low. Yesterday it made a Higher Low on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and rebounded. This is identical to the post December 07 2023 Channel Up, which was also supported by its 1D MA50 until its very top (July 11 2024). The 1D RSI sequences between the two fractals are also similar and even more importantly the Channel Up patterns appear to have a high degree of symmetry. So far the two Bullish Legs have risen by +5.40%. As a result, we are expecting another +5.40% from yesterday's bottom, so our Target is just below it at 170.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
+100/+150 pips GBPUSD H11 short/long trade plan🔸Hello traders, let's review the 1hour chart for GBPUSD today. Solid bounce off the lows in progress, however overhead resistance will cap any immediate upside. 🔸Key levels for GBPUSD traders: 2625 s/r bulls, 2735 s/r bears, 2775 mirror s/r bears level will get re-tested by the bulls for liquidity. 🔸Recommended strategy for GBPUSD traders: the sequence is short / long so you want to short high off the s/r bears at 2735 SL 40 TP 2625 pips, this is the W reversal play / re-test of the mirror s/r bulls at 2625 then flip lonjg at/near 2625+-10 pips SL 40 pips TP1 +75 TP2 +150 pips final exit bulls at mirror s/r at 2775. this is a swing trade setup, patience required. good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Short
by ProjectSyndicate
6
EURUSD strong buy signal if the 4hour MA50 breaks.EURUSD has started trading inside a Channel Up pattern, approaching the 4hour MA50 with its 4hour RSI on the rise. This is identical to the pattern of late October both on price and RSI terms. When that pattern finally closed a candle over the 4hour MA50, the price was catapulted to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (but remained under the 4hour MA200). As a result, go long if the 4hour MA50 gets crossed and target 1.07550 (Fib 1.618). Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Long
by TheCryptagon
1
EURO - Price can break support level and continue fall in wedgeHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently price grew inside rising channel, where it at once broke $1.0835 level, after which rose to resistance line. Also, in channel, price made a gap, after which rose to $1.0935 points and then started to decline. Euro exited from channel, and continued to decline inside wedge, where it broke $1.0835 level and fell to $1.0680 level. Price tried to grow, but failed and later broke $1.0680 level too, and continued to decline next to support area. When price reached this area, which coincided with $1.0530 support level, it bounced and now EUR trades near it. In my mind, price can grow to resistance line of wedge and then continue to fall to $1.0425, breaking support level. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Short
by WalterMoon
14
From Fiat to Crypto: A Pragmatic View on Cross-Asset USD Impact1. Introduction: Why Understanding USD Impact Matters The U.S. dollar (USD) plays a pivotal role in shaping global financial markets, especially for assets denominated in dollars, such as S&P 500 Futures (ES/MES). Its movements affect equity market flows, international capital dynamics, and, ultimately, price trends for USD-denominated instruments. However, traditional methods of gauging USD strength often fall short of capturing the nuanced interplay between fiat currencies and emerging digital assets. To bridge this gap, we introduce a pragmatic and dynamic solution: the USD Proxy. By combining a carefully weighted mix of key global currencies (Euro and Yen) with Bitcoin (BTC), this proxy provides a comprehensive and CME-specific lens for understanding USD strength. It is a modern approach to assess the dollar's “true” influence on equity markets, particularly the S&P 500 Futures. 2. The USD Proxy: A Pragmatic Cross-Asset Index The USD Proxy is built to reflect real-time market dynamics, offering traders a potentially more relevant measure of the dollar’s impact. Unlike static indexes, this proxy is dynamic, continuously adjusting based on three major components: Euro Futures (6E): Representing the largest fiat currency trading block. Japanese Yen Futures (6J): Capturing the Asian market's influence. Bitcoin Futures (BTC): Adding a layer of innovation by integrating cryptocurrency, which operates independently of traditional fiat systems. The weighting is determined by notional values, market prices, and volume-weighted activity as volumes change and evolve through time, ensuring the proxy adapts to liquidity and relative importance. This structure provides a balanced view of USD strength across fiat and crypto markets, making it highly applicable to modern trading. 3. Adjusting S&P 500 Futures Using the USD Proxy To uncover the “true” equity market performance, the S&P 500 Futures can be adjusted using the USD Proxy. The formula is straightforward: Adjusted S&P 500 Futures = S&P 500 Futures Price x USD Proxy Value This adjustment neutralizes the effects of USD strength or weakness, revealing the core price action of the equity market. By doing so, traders can distinguish between moves driven by dollar fluctuations and those stemming from genuine market trends. For example, during periods of a strengthening USD, the unadjusted S&P 500 Futures may appear weaker due to currency pressure. However, the adjusted version may provide a clearer picture of the underlying equity market, enabling traders to make more informed decisions. 4. Regular vs. Adjusted S&P 500 Futures: Key Insights The comparison between regular and USD Proxy-adjusted S&P 500 Futures charts could reveal critical divergences that may have been often overlooked. These divergences highlight how currency fluctuations can obscure or exaggerate the equity market’s actual performance. For instance, while the S&P 500 Futures have recently reached new all-time highs, some market participants may view this as an indication of the market being overpriced. However, when adjusted using the USD Proxy, the chart reveals a different reality: the S&P 500 Futures are far from their highs. This adjustment aims to neutralize the currency's impact, uncovering that the recent record-breaking levels in the unadjusted chart are likely largely influenced by USD dynamics rather than true underlying equity market performance. 5. Trading Opportunities in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart opens up new possibilities for traders to identify actionable insights and anomalies. By neutralizing the currency effect, traders can: Spot Relative Overperformance: Identify instances where the adjusted chart shows strength compared to the regular chart, signaling robust underlying equity market dynamics. Capitalize on Potential Anomalies: Detect price-action discrepancies caused by abrupt currency moves and align trades accordingly. Refine Entry and Exit Points: Use the adjusted chart especially during high-volatility periods influenced by the USD. 6. Trading Application: A Long Opportunity in Adjusted S&P 500 Futures Trade Setup: o Instrument: S&P 500 Futures (ES) or Micro S&P 500 Futures (MES). o Entry Point: Around 5900.00 o Targets: Primary Target: 6205.75 (aggressive traders, Fibonacci extension level). Conservative Target: 6080.00 (moderate traders, earlier Fibonacci extension). o Stop Loss: Below the entry, calculated to maintain a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio. Rationale: The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart highlights a technical setup where the price is reacting to: Breakout to the Upside: The adjusted chart is breaking out of a key resistance level, signaling potential continuation of upward momentum. The 20-SMA: Acting as dynamic support, aligning with recent price behavior. Technical Support Level: A key horizontal level. These converging factors suggest the potential for a bullish continuation, targeting Fibonacci extension levels at 6205.75 or 6080.00. The adjusted chart provides added confidence that the move is not overly influenced by USD fluctuations, grounding the analysis in equity-specific dynamics. Trade Mechanics: o Instrument Options: ES (full-size contract), with a point value of $50 per point. MES (micro-sized version), designed for smaller accounts or precision risk management, with a point value of $5 per point—10 times smaller than the full-size ES contract. o Margins (approximate, depending on broker): ES: Approximately $15,000 per contract. MES: Approximately $1,5000 per contract—10 times smaller than the ES margin. Execution Plan Example: Place Buy Limit Order at 5900.00. Set Stop Loss below the entry, maintaining a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio. Take partial profits or adjust stop losses as the price approaches 6080.00 for conservative traders or 6205.75 for aggressive targets. 7. Conclusion: A Fresh Perspective on USD and Equity Futures By introducing the USD Proxy and applying it to S&P 500 Futures, traders gain a powerful tool to assess market dynamics. This cross-asset approach—spanning fiat and crypto—bridges the gap between traditional and modern financial metrics, offering unparalleled insights. The adjusted S&P 500 Futures chart neutralizes currency distortions, revealing the market's true movements. Whether identifying divergences, refining trading strategies, or uncovering hidden opportunities, this method empowers traders to approach the market with clarity and precision. As markets evolve, tools like the USD Proxy demonstrate the importance of integrating diverse assets to stay ahead in a complex trading environment. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
Euro H4 | Heading into resistanceThe Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 1.0647 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 1.0738 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 1.0495 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM