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EURUSD 22/12/24EUR/USD Update: Final Week of Trading Before the New Year As we head into the last week of trading before closing shop for the year, here’s a recap and outlook: Last week, we called a short after identifying our "money out" level. With a daily bearish bias and liquidity sitting above the highs, we outlined a clear sell scenario. The market delivered exactly as expected. Looking ahead to this week, our bias remains unchanged, and the principles stay the same. We are targeting deeper moves lower, focusing on the daily low at the base of the current range. Following the same approach, we anticipate the highs to be swept first, creating opportunities to enter and ride the price down to key lows. Currently, we have a potential high forming near the center of the range, but this is unconfirmed for now and remains a possibility. Keep an eye on all the marked highs—we’re waiting for a sweep of these levels, which could trigger the final market move of the year. If an entry presents itself, we’ll look to trade lower. Stay disciplined, trade your plan, and manage your risk.
by PipSurfingSociety
EURUSD 8/12/24This week, with Euros to the U.S. dollar, we’ve seen price pull back to the highest area highlighted in last week’s markup. It took out the liquidity high we placed below it while also mitigating some of our longer-term points of liquidity. We’ve now identified several points of liquidity lower down, one being at the base of the last upward move. This move originated from the area we highlighted as a potential zone for bullish price action. Despite the significant upward movement, our higher time frame bias maintains a bearish narrative, indicating that money is still flowing out of this market, pushing prices lower. As shown on the chart with the indicator applied, we are now on the 4-hour timeframe. A "money-out" area has been formed, and we are watching for price action to follow this trend, targeting the liquid lows we have marked. This setup points to a sell opportunity at the start of this market session, with the expectation that price will continue to move bearish throughout the week. Stick to your risk and follow your trading plan.
by PipSurfingSociety
The Coming EU Recession into 2028, Mercedes BENZ $MBG Triple TopThe principal pillar of the European economy is Germany, recognized as its wealthiest nation. A parallel can be drawn to the adage regarding America: when it experiences a minor setback, the global economy often faces significant repercussions. It is often asserted that the essence of "Deutschland" is deeply rooted in its automotive industry, leading to its moniker as "Autoland." German automobiles have consistently been esteemed as the finest globally. In fact, the most thriving economic engine in Europe has been heavily dependent on the automotive sector, and the initiatives aimed at addressing climate change have been likened to the act of vanquishing a vampire—driving a stake through its heart. Volkswagen, the biggest car maker in Europe, is warning that it might have to cut thousands of jobs and close some factories in Germany. This is happening because they are having tough talks with unions about rising costs. The push for climate-friendly cars has really affected how many people want to buy new vehicles, and they are also facing strong competition in the electric car market. The news about job cuts and possible factory shutdowns is causing a big stir around the world. Other car companies like Mercedes Benz, BMW, and Ford are also making cuts and letting employees go. Volkswagen is planning to lay off tens of thousands of workers and is even thinking about closing some factories, which is a big deal. Bosch, the largest auto parts supplier in the world and a major employer in Germany, is also cutting hours and pay for around 10,000 workers. Even Meyer Werft, a shipbuilding company that has been around since the 1800s, recently needed a huge bailout of $423 million to stay out of bankruptcy. The economic strategies implemented by Brussels have significantly weakened the overall economy of the European Union. Germany has remained committed to the traditional Mercantile economic model, maintaining elevated tax rates to curb inflation while producing goods for export to generate profits. In 2023, the automotive sector is projected to represent as much as 17% of Germany's exports. This sector has created over 750,000 jobs. However, German manufacturing has struggled to achieve a full recovery since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, currently reaching only about 90% of its pre-pandemic output.
XETR:MBGShort
by BallaJi
EURUSD 1/12/24As we enter the first week of December, our bias remains the same as last week—bearish. While the GBP/USD pair has shifted to a bullish bias, EUR/USD has yet to follow suit. As always, we track price based on our established bias. From this chart, you can see several bearish targets in the form of liquidity lows. If we see a push higher, this may take price into the supply area above and toward the nearest liquidity high relative to the current price. At this stage, we will look for a clear sell setup to drive price back down toward the liquidity levels marked below. If no pullback occurs and price moves lower, aligning with our bearish bias, we’ll look for liquidity highs to form and be taken out as we continue downward. Be aware of the demand zone sitting below the current price, as it may push the market back up if contacted. For now, we remain bearish and focused on sell opportunities. Keep an eye on the daily bias, as it could shift if price holds higher within this range. Trade safe and stick to your plan!
by PipSurfingSociety
EURUSD 25/11/24Starting the week a little later than usual with a markup on EUR/USD. Following weeks and months of bearish price action, we continue to anticipate further downside movement. This outlook aligns with our daily bias, which indicates a bearish trend. The market opened with a significant gap to the upside across most brokers, increasing the likelihood of the gap being closed. Additionally, there is an untapped supply area above the current price level. Two liquidity highs are situated above this area, suggesting a potential pullback to liquidate these levels. If this occurs, we will look for continued sell-side movement. However, pullbacks are not guaranteed during trending conditions. If the price continues to expand downward without retracing, our first target will be the gap left open at the market's opening. Beyond that, we will focus on the major low marked at the base of the current move. Please be mindful of key fundamental events this week, as they may cause a midweek shift in our bias. For now, our outlook remains bearish, and we are focused on identifying sell opportunities. Refer to the points on our charts for guidance on potential downside movement. If the supply area and liquidity highs are reached but fail to trigger a bearish shift, it may signal a deeper pullback on higher timeframes. Stick to your plan, manage your risk, and trade safely. Wishing you an amazing trading week!
by PipSurfingSociety
EURUSD Macro Sells PossibleAlright so it's been a literal while since I've analyzed anything other than gold and or maybe BTC. But neither of them have any opportunity currently so I am taking a look at a few other assets to see if there is anything interesting. On EURUSD, we can see here what appears to be price stumbling at a level in which price has bought multiple times in the past and what I find really interesting about this level is the fact that price is bullish. EURUSD is an overall bullish market so the fact that it is selling suggests that price needs to grab liquidity from the downside. But why? What is down there that price needs so badly? Well, Think about it. Buyers place stop losses where exactly? At the lows right? Yeah when you look at it on the weekly timeframe in my opinion it becomes even more clear - price needs to go lower to clear out buyers stops. BUT This then means that price needs to sell right? And we can only truly sell when price is bearish enough to do so right? Well here seems to be very bearish, but I'd admit that I feel like I am drawing at straws here in hopes that it breaks this time, I'd be honest I am not hopeful that it will lol That being said, what I think is possible for EU is that it will continue to stumble about this level for a while, maybe even go higher, before truly attempting to drop. As much as I wish to find something here, I don't think there is anything. The most I can say is maybe more sustained sells (very short term) until price leaves this orange zone I'd be careful with this one
Short
by Brandon_evo4
EURUSD 10/11/24Last week’s shift in the EU bias changed our view from short to long. However, as we always say, high-impact fundamentals can move the market, sometimes in line with our bias and sometimes against it. In the case of the U.S. election, the result pushed prices lower. This happened because the USD gained significant strength when the new president was elected. Now, we're back to our more favorable sell bias. With the recent shift lower, the higher timeframe aligns with this bias again, allowing us to target last week’s lows. We have several points to watch for a bearish shift: the supply area in the middle of our current range and the two highs at the top of the range from Friday’s 4:00 AM move. If these highs are taken, we expect price to sell off and continue down to our target lows. There's a possibility of price moving up to the major high we’ve marked, but this is unlikely given our bearish bias. If this happens, we’ll still aim for the target low. A pullback would give us an even better position to sell into that low. As it stands, we have a relatively large fundamental range, so price may fluctuate within this range for some time. Follow your plan and stick to your risk!
by PipSurfingSociety
EURUSD map: Down to 1.04-1.00 Then Up to 1.16-1.21EURUSD is in the second leg down to complete a complex correction (red down arrows). There are three crucial target points for drop to watch: 1) Valley of red leg 1 at 1.0448 and 50% Fib at 1.0406 2) 61.8% Fib at 1.0200 3) Touch point of the throwback to broken trendline around parity Next is the reversal to upside within the large leg 2 up (blue up arrows). The possible targets depend on the depth of the current drop, the deeper the lower the upside target. From the first point of drop EURUSD could hit 1.21 area. From the lowest valley of parity it could reach 1.16 handle.
by aibek
EUR/USD Surges as U.S. Political Uncertainty Ahead of Key EventsDuring Monday’s European session, the EUR/USD currency pair is making headlines by hovering around the 1.0900 mark. With an ambitious target of 1.09780 in sight, this major currency pair is showing a notable surge at the expense of the U.S. Dollar (USD). This movement comes amid rising uncertainty as the United States approaches its presidential election on Tuesday, alongside the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting later in the week. A Bearish Start for the U.S. Dollar As the new week begins, the U.S. Dollar is experiencing a bearish trend, reflected in the decline of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Market participants are especially focused on the tight race shaping up between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris, fueling a climate of uncertainty around the election outcomes. The anticipation surrounding the elections appears to have contributed to a flight from the dollar, as traders brace for potential volatility based on the implications of the election results. Technical Analysis: No Major Changes From a technical perspective, the current market behavior reflects continuity rather than change. Price levels remain largely similar to those observed in previous weeks, suggesting a moment of stabilization as traders await catalysts that could lead to clearer directional moves. Additionally, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that the positioning of traders has not changed significantly, continuing to reflect the trends seen last week. Preparing for Election Aftermath As the market gears up for the immediate aftermath of the elections, traders should be prepared for substantial fluctuations. The uncertainty regarding the election outcomes and the potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy are poised to create considerable movement across various asset classes. Depending on who emerges victorious, expectations for fiscal strategies, regulatory changes, and economic recovery plans may influence market sentiment and asset performance for weeks to come. Conclusion In conclusion, the EUR/USD's rise toward the 1.09780 target reflects broader market dynamics influenced by political uncertainty in the United States. As participants navigate this complex landscape, the interplay between election outcomes and central bank policies will be crucial to the future trajectory of the currency pair. Traders are advised to remain vigilant, as upcoming events could lead to significant volatility, reshaping market expectations and price actions in the process. Previous Forecast: ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EURUSD 27/10/24EUR/USD has shown a continuous downward movement this week, which aligns with the institutional trend we discussed last week. Although there was a brief push above the recent high, there is a chance for the price to move slightly higher before resuming its path. We’ve highlighted key areas of interest. One is a supply zone where we expect the price to react, potentially targeting liquidity to the left. Additionally, there is a potential reaction point at the previous high, along with a liquidity target below. Our short-term bias is bullish, but we maintain a long-term bearish outlook, as we have for the past month. Keep an eye on fundamentals, and avoid buying in this market since the overall trend is still downward. Remember to follow the "Keep It Simple" approach, and only take trades with a clear entry signal. Trade safe and always stick to your plan.
by PipSurfingSociety
EURUSD 20/10/24Following the bias we had on the Euro last week, the same outlook remains in place. Our high time frame bias on the daily chart is clearly bearish, supported by a strong downward movement. All the indicators are aligning with further price declines, and as you can see, the institutional trajectory is also pointing lower. We are looking for a potential pullback to the supply area, where we would consider selling to target lower prices. This area is marked on our chart. If price breaks through the supply zone, we would then expect a rise towards some of the liquidity positioned above. However, if price does not break through and continues to drop, the next level we anticipate price stalling at is 1.08000, a key level that could serve as liquidity for the last low placed on the daily timeframe. As always, our markup is kept simple to help you stay on the right side of the market without overcomplicating things. Remember, a straightforward system can still provide a consistent directional bias. You don't need a complex strategy to achieve this. Trade safely, follow your plan, and stick to your risk management.
by PipSurfingSociety
EURUSD 13/10/24Starting off the week with the US dollar, we saw a significant sell-off last week, which eventually led to consolidation as the week progressed. Price action currently suggests a potential move higher before any long-term downward trend continues. As mentioned in previous weeks' analyses, there is now a buyer's market emerging. We expect the current price action to persist. While pullbacks are not guaranteed, a broader move towards lower prices in the long term is anticipated. However, short-term reaccumulation is also likely, meaning a push higher is just as probable as a continued sell-off at this stage. We are not expecting a substantial pullback, but the long-term outlook remains bearish. Key areas of interest include a significant supply zone and a liquidity high. If the price moves up to this level, a strong sell-off could occur. Nevertheless, the overall expectation is for the price to decline further before reaching these points. Stick to your risk and follow your plan!
by PipSurfingSociety
EURUSD 6/10/24Starting off the week with euro to the US dollar. I bearish bias came into play as we thought it might. we now have a longer term bearish outlook for this pair. We swept all of the liquidity that was based on the lower end of price action except for the low that we have marked which is relatively close to current price We have an area of supply to watch if we pull back to go lower. We also have a liquid high that's seated above that point. So take into consideration that we may break through the short term trajectory that we have made. this can give us a higher pullback to the upper higher time frame water block if this happens we are still expecting a short main bias here is for the area of supply to be tapped into in price action to sell to the low that we have marked. Trade safe, stick to your plan and your risk.
by PipSurfingSociety
EURUSD 29/09/24Starting the week with the Euro to U.S. Dollar. Following last week, we saw a clear push to the upside, with price action generating solid movement in an uptrend. We expect this momentum to continue as the U.S. Dollar shows signs of weakening. This suggests a high probability of price action moving toward the previously established high, which serves as a key area of trajectory, clearly pointing upwards. This is a leading indicator of a potential new high being formed. Additionally, there are areas of liquidity and demand, which are crucial points of interest should we see a pullback. Keep in mind, our daily trajectory is clearly bullish. However, if we break below the trajectory low and fail to react to the demand area, I would expect price action to decline further, taking us to the lower end of the range on the higher timeframe. Stick to your risk. Always follow your trading plan.
by PipSurfingSociety
EURUSD 22/09/24This week, we continue to expect a bullish Euro to US Dollar movement, similar to last week. The price moved higher and remained above the previous high. Now, our focus is on the daily high and an hourly demand zone that could drive further upside price action. We are also aligning with the institutional trajectory, which points upward. If the price dips to this level and shows bullish signals, we expect a continuation toward the daily high. At this point, we anticipate the price to remain bullish, with a small pullback likely before resuming its upward movement. Follow what price action is showing you. Remember that these areas are only to be tracked in terms of probability, not in terms of prediction of actual price action. Stick your plan follow your risk. trade safe.
by PipSurfingSociety
2
Meta and Spotify Criticize EU’s AI Decisions Stock up 3.53%On Thursday, Meta (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:META ), along with Spotify and several other tech companies, voiced strong criticisms against the European Union’s approach to data privacy and artificial intelligence (AI) regulation. In an open letter, these firms, along with researchers and industry bodies, claimed that the EU's decision-making has become "fragmented and inconsistent," warning that Europe risks falling behind in the global AI race. The Regulatory Clash: Meta and GDPR Tensions Meta (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:META ), which owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, has been at the center of data privacy controversies in Europe, especially under the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Recently, Meta (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:META ) halted its plans to collect data from European users to train its AI models due to pressure from privacy regulators. This followed a record-breaking fine of over one billion euros for breaching privacy rules. The company, along with other tech giants, has delayed the release of AI products in the European market, seeking clarity on legal and regulatory frameworks. For instance, Meta delayed the launch of its Twitter alternative, Threads, in the EU, while Google has also held back on AI tool rollouts in the region. The open letter signed by Meta, Spotify, and others calls for "harmonized, consistent, quick, and clear decisions" from data privacy regulators to enable European data to be used in AI training. The companies argue that without a coherent regulatory framework, the EU could lose its competitive edge in the global AI landscape, falling behind regions like the U.S. and China, which have been advancing rapidly in the field. Meta’s AI Ambitions and Strategic Moves Meta’s criticisms of the EU regulations come at a time when the company is heavily investing in AI technologies to enhance its social media platforms and introduce new products. AI is at the heart of Meta’s push toward the metaverse and other cutting-edge innovations. The company’s reluctance to release certain AI products in Europe is a direct result of the regulatory uncertainty, which hampers its ability to fully capitalize on its technological advancements. With the EU’s AI Act coming into force this year, it aims to curb potential abuses in AI usage, but this stringent regulation may slow down innovation and delay product launches in the region. Meta and other tech giants believe that clearer rules will help unlock the potential of AI while protecting user privacy. Technical Outlook: A Bullish Meta Stock Poised for Continued Growth From a technical perspective, Meta’s stock ( NASDAQ:META ) has been on a stellar upward trend since November 2022, and it doesn't show signs of slowing down. As of the time of writing, the stock is up 3.66% and has entered overbought territory with an RSI (Relative Strength Index) of 70.54. This indicates that the stock may be poised for a temporary cool-off. The stock's rise has been bolstered by broader market optimism, including the recent decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. This move is expected to benefit the tech sector, with Meta standing to gain significantly. With lower borrowing costs, tech companies like Meta (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:META ) can continue their aggressive expansion into AI and metaverse-related technologies. Meta’s stock (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:META ) also exhibits a gap-up pattern that hasn’t been filled, suggesting a potential correction or consolidation period. Additionally, the stock has been consolidating since February 2024, indicating a potential bullish continuation pattern. However, with the RSI in overbought territory, investors should watch for a short-term pullback to cool off the stock before resuming its upward trajectory. Meta’s AI Potential Amid Regulatory Uncertainty Meta (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:META ) is navigating a complex regulatory environment in the EU while continuing to make strides in AI and technological innovation. Despite the challenges posed by GDPR and the AI Act, Meta remains well-positioned for long-term growth, with its stock reflecting strong momentum. However, short-term volatility due to regulatory decisions and technical factors may present buying opportunities for investors. As Meta (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:META ) continues to push the envelope in AI and the metaverse, the company’s future success will largely depend on its ability to navigate these regulatory waters while maintaining its innovation edge.
NASDAQ:METALong
by DEXWireNews
EURUSD 15/09/24Starting this week as always with EUR/USD, we saw a drop as we predicted last week, clearing liquidity and taking out the last major low. However, we haven’t hit our area of demand, meaning this area is still in play, as shown on our chart. A new area of demand has formed, and there is liquidity below the low from which this new zone has emerged. Based on the higher timeframe zone and current price action, I believe we could see a bullish shift after we drop into the demand area. Of course, we may not reach that point, but if we do, I'll be looking for a clear long opportunity or, if demand fails, to go short toward the major low. Keep it simple: trade your plan and always stick to your risk management!
by PipSurfingSociety
EURUSD 9/9/24Starting this week with EU, as we always do. As you can see, we are pretty much at the centre of our current range, leading us to believe we are building liquidity on both sides. Currently, we have swept out the high from last week during a news push. After this sweep, we dropped lower than our previous low, establishing a bearish range and putting the price in a position to create a new low and drop into bearish order flow at the lower end of our higher time frame range. For now, I am waiting for the price to give us a clear move. I am more inclined to see the price drop down and then run higher into the last major high. However, as mentioned above, we have potential for new sell moves, so we will wait for something clear to establish. Trade safe, stick to your risk, and follow your plan.
by PipSurfingSociety
EURUSD 01/9/24Here we are at the beginning of September, continuing to follow and track the markets as we do with every Sunday markup that we release. This week, we observed a clear bearish movement. As we move into the new week, we have a scenario suggesting that more downside could occur, while also recognizing the liquidity sitting above the highs. It’s important to understand that the probability of a deeper pullback before any bullish continuation, or an overall shift into bearish order flow, is highly likely given the current market conditions. A deeper pullback would mean lower pricing before a new bullish run continues. In terms of a potential switch to a bearish outlook overall, we’ll be looking for price to pull back and then move lower before continuing in a trending direction, which is technically the opposite of what we have observed currently. This week, you can see the key levels I’m monitoring: we have our larger time frame refined area of demand, and a high that was created within the 4-hour time frame. We’re currently waiting for the low to be established to give us the high and low for our range. However, I’m expecting the price to come lower and interact with the area of demand, or potentially change the overall trend and direction. Trade safe. Stick to your risk and always follow your plan.
by PipSurfingSociety