Critical support for ETHBTCPlease 1st of all smash the boost🚀 button to support my work if you like it! It's absolutely for free.
ETHBTC dropped out of the yellow channel, broke the lime uptrendline and backtested the white downtrendline where price found strong support from Hulk.💪 After the bounce up price reclaimed the lime uptrendline and even got back inside the yellow channel and also broke the red downtrendline. I think the white confluence area of the trendlines needs to hold as support otherwise breaking down would be bearish in my view.
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ETHBTC
BITCOIN 1H TA; new trendline updateAccording to the previous analysis, we put the important resistance of $23,500 as an important range, which was corrected when it hit this area. Now, if the range of the trend line is maintained and the resistance is broken, an upward trend will be formed, and otherwise, a downward trend will be formed.
Its not Buy or Sell SIGNAL
DYOR
BY : Mohamad Teriz - @AtonicShark
#ETH, seeking to test the highest value since mid-January#ETH /BTC
seeking to test the highest value since mid-January w/ a new HH today
Unless POS transition dates are again delayed, I believe it will continue to advance toward new highs
The UCTS indicator agrees & is bullish across several timeframes (25% since the latest 1D Buy)
ETH/BTC CHART Don't fall for it, it's coming down again. :)
We can see a clear weekly triple top.
Break down of neckline, now a re-test of the structured right shoulder.
This environment should not allow the weekly to close above.
Too many indicators pointing lower, probabilities for a lower low is high.
Feel free to leave your thought
Ethereum - watching support levelEthereum
Intraday
We look to Buy at 1571 (stop at 1524)
We look to buy dips. The previous swing low is located at 1560. Bespoke support is located at 1550. Daily signals are mildly bullish.
Our profit targets will be 1688 and 1728
Resistance: 1700 / 1750 / 1780
Support: 1600 / 1550 / 1500
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Jamie Gun2Head Idea - Selling EthereumTrade Idea: Selling Ethereum
Reasoning: At resistance level, price is still, looking to drive lower within the channel
Entry Level: 1665
Take Profit Level: 1567
Stop Loss: 1692
Risk/Reward: 3.63:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
BITCOIN break the Channel NOW In the previous analysis of Bitcoin, we mentioned the downward channel, but now this channel has broken upwards, and if the pullback is completed, we have the possibility of the price increasing to resistance levels, otherwise it will return to the downward channel.
Its not Buy or Sell SIGNAL
DYOR
BY : Mohamad Teriz - @AtonicShark
BTC to drop down furtherBitcoin tried to break out of the yellow channel to the upside for the second time, but it just made Head and Shoulders on top of the channel upper edge which acted as neckline. H&S has been confirmed by the neckline break, price dropped down inside the channel, so it basically failed to make proper upside breakout off the channel which is bearish in my view. Target of the H&S is 22200 which corresponds with the S/R zone below.
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Resistance to ChangeJuly was a reassuring month for crypto, and financial markets in general, stimulated by the Federal Reserve deciding a 0.75% rate hike was sufficient to slow inflation. They also stated the 2.25-2.50% federal fund rate is now neutral – no longer contributing to growth or contraction within the economy. This caused markets to rally on the expectation there may not be many further rate hikes and the possibility the worst may be behind us.
Last year, July marked the bottom of the summer correction and the start of the rally that resulted in new all-time highs. This year, July saw a 16.6% monthly gain for bitcoin – the highest monthly gain since October 2021. This was outshone by ether’s monumental monthly gain of approximately 57% – the largest since January’s 2021’s 78% gain and the fifth best month over the past 5 years. The ETH/BTC chart conveys this spectacle well. Ether appreciated by 28% against BTC since the start of June – demonstrating the increased upside Ethereum has compared to its larger counterpart.
However, last week it was Ethereum Classic (ETC), that saw the greatest gains. ETC saw a 94% surge within 4 days, with price still trading within 20% of the high. It is suspected this was caused by The Ethereum Merge that will result in Ethereum moving from proof-of-stake to proof-of-work (POW). This will render the Ethereum miners’ expensive equipment, used to solve the mathematical puzzles used in POW, obsolete and the miners’ $18 billion annual revenue disappearing. On the other hand, Ethereum Classic will remain proof-of-work, driving Ethereum miners to potentially put their equipment to use securing the Ethereum Classic chain. However, Ethereum Classic’s mining revenue amounts to only 3% of Ethereum’s.
AntPool, one of the largest mining pools and an affiliate of Bitmain, a large mining equipment manufacturer, announced it would invest $10 million to develop and create new applications on the Ethereum Classic ecosystem in an attempt to increase the adoption of the blockchain, and the sales of their rigs. Bitmain also stated they will accept payments for their machinery in ETC. Will Ethereum’s fundamentalists win? On August 2nd, ETC total value locked (TVL) sat at $230,000 and transaction volume was $162 million compared to ETH’s $57 billion TVL and $3.8 billion transaction volume. The loyalists will require some serious network effects to capture any market share.
Fidelity has stated that bitcoin will be the only 401(k) crypto product they will offer with a 20% allocation limit per portfolio. It could be argued that this is a huge step in the right direction with a behemoth asset manager, such as Fidelity, believing bitcoin is a suitable product for retirement plans. On the other hand, it also demonstrates the rest of the space is generally regarded as unproven and untrusted. This opinion was echoed by three anti-crypto American senators this week who deemed Fidelity’s move to include bitcoin as “immensely troubling”.
Institutional hesitancy towards altcoins can be understood when considering institution’s risk aversion. The nature of the nascent crypto space where the “build fast and break things” approach, which can sometimes be taken advantage of, is also a hinderance. Incidents such as the $190 million exploit on popular token bridge Nomad that occurred this week is case in point. Solana also experienced issues this week with popular Solana wallets, Phantom, Slope and Trust Wallet, being exploited with their users’ funds being drained from over 8,000 wallets.
After the collapse of CeFi and now these breaches on hot wallets, crypto asset security has become an even bigger priority for all crypto users. Ledger, the popular hardware wallet provider, has perfectly timed its rumoured discussions of seeking to raise an additional $100 million in funding. It is rumoured the round will be at a higher valuation than their previous $380 million raise at a $1.5 billion valuation last June – showcasing the growing demand for protecting crypto wealth even during this market downturn.
Thankfully, resistance to change can provide profitable opportunities as the herd stays away from “risky” assets. Howard Marks details in his investment bible, “The Most Important Thing”, that the highest risk-adjusted returns are obtained when buying assets that are considered “not fully understood, fundamentally questionable on the surface, controversial, unseemly or scary, deemed inappropriate for “respectable” portfolios or recently the subject of disinvestment”. We wonder what asset class meets these criteria…
Still long opportunities in EthereumEthereum
Intraday
We look to Buy at 1571 (stop at 1524)
We look to buy dips. The previous swing low is located at 1560. Bespoke support is located at 1550. Daily signals are mildly bullish.
Our profit targets will be 1688 and 1728
Resistance: 1700 / 1750 / 1780
Support: 1600 / 1550 / 1500
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
ETH decision point*log scale*
ETHEREUM ran into major downtrendline resistance (red, see the picture below)...
...and then dropped to the support confluence (cyan area created by lime and white uptrendlines). We are approaching the apex of triangle📐 created by lime uptrendline and red major downtrendline so the decision point is coming. If the cyan area support doesn't hold, we could see price spilling to the yellow channel upper edge near 1300. On the other hand if there is break of the red major downtrenline to the upside, bulls are in charge.
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Ethereum - "FOMO" is likely to punish buyersFor about a month now, we repeated that bullish calls for a trend reversal and bottom were false. We continue to stick to this narrative also today. Indeed, recently, we noted that the price of Ethereum started to appear attractive for short position (re)entry in the range between 1500 USD - 1600 USD and above.
We believe drying up liquidity in the market suggests trouble ahead with institutional players utilizing the recent bounce to sell their positions. In addition to that, higher interest rates, a weakening economy, and regulatory obstacles continue to threaten the cryptocurrency market.
As a result, we think the bear market rally nears its end. Therefore, in accordance with our assessment, we would like to set a price target for ETHUSD at 1 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of ETHUSD. Yellow arrows indicate three bullish breakouts and one bearish retracement. White horizontal lines indicate support and resistance levels.
Systemic cracks
The list of affected companies and concise description:
1. Voyager (bankrupt) - defaulted on $350 million in the U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDC , and 15,250 bitcoin .
2. Zipmex (bankrupt)
3. 3 Arrow Capital (bankrupt) - filed for bankruptcy and its founders went missing.
4. Celsius Network (bankrupt) - went bankrupt after freezing over 151 000 Bitcoins locked away from its 1.7 million users.
5. CoinFlex - (limited withdrawals)
6. SkyBridge Capital - cryptocurrency fund (suspended withdrawals)
7. Coinbase (investigated by the SEC) - probed over the issuance of securities and insider trading.
8. Binance (investigated by the SEC) - probed over Tether stablecoin and insider trading.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The chart above shows the relationship between price and volume. It can be seen that after bullish breakouts, volume declined, hinting at the temporary evaporation of buyers. Now, we want to see a build-up in volume accompanying a declining price to confirm our bearish thesis.
An ugly reminder of the downtrend
The list of affected cryptocurrencies:
Luna - stablecoin (-99%)
CEL - cryptocurrency (-84%)
Cardano - cryptocurrency (-82%)
BNB - cryptocurrency (-57%)
XRP - cryptocurrency (-89%)
BTC - cryptocurrency (-64%)
ETH - cryptocurrency (-65%)
SOL - cryptocurrency (-82%)
Dogecoin - meme coin (-90%)
Polkadot - cryptocurrency (-84%)
Matic/Polygon - cryptocurrency (-72%)
*The list shows values from 30th July 2022. Declines are measured from all-time-high values.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bearish. MACD strives to perform bullish crossover. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame sends mixed signals; it lags behind the daily time frame.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.