Etfs
ARKK - $93 target?Look -- up in the sky!
Is it a crash? Is it a correction? No, it's a sale!
ARKK is at a critical support on the daily chart (right at the 200 MA on daily). But before I re enter, I like to zoom out and take a weekly chart view -- which is what I am presenting.
The weekly chart shows that ARKK rallied upward too quickly for it's own good (we all love the Cathie train). While the daily chart is at the 200MA the weekly is not even close to the 50 MA!
My strategy
I'm waiting for a pullback to around $93 for an initial entry (75% of what I'm willing to invest in this). If the weakness continues, I will dollar cost average at around $75 -- however, at present I don't feel we will see the $75 price point. But we have a whole 2021 left, so I can wait.
NOTE: For me I will not be looking to swing trade ArkK, and am okay if this ship sails before I get a chance to hop on, so please plan your strategy accordingly. My outlook for ARKK currently is 12-24 months if I get the orders filled at my targeted prices. My 2022 price target for ARKK is $195-215 which will be 2x ROI.
Let me know if you're actively in ARK ETFs and what are some of your targets.
Good luck!
The essential features of ETF’s In this article, we’ll go over some fundamental concepts about exchange-traded funds (ETF’s) .
To comprehend what an ETF is and what its qualities are, we must first provide a brief overview of mutual funds.
A mutual fund is an investment company that pools money from investors to buy a variety of stocks, bonds, and other securities on their behalf.
A portfolio is a collection of the underlying constituents. The firms that create these mutual funds assign a manager to oversee the investments. The basic concept is to give smaller amounts of capital easy access to diversification through a single purchase. An investor purchases a piece of a portfolio of his choosing. From the perspective of an investor, the mutual fund is easy. They essentially submit the investment to the mutual fund corporation. If they use a brokerage account, they will see shares of the mutual fund appear in their account, or they will receive a statement directly from the firm revealing their fund position.
The ETF's are a type of mutual fund that incorporates a number of more contemporary features. The first ETF listed on the New York stock exchange (NYSE) in 1993 was created to track the S&P 500 index.
An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a pooled investment vehicle that is listed on a stock exchange, allowing investors to buy and sell its shares at a market-determined price during the trading day. They follow the same rules as any publicly traded stock, and they offer transparency and a central hub for all of their underlying asset classes. ETFs can be used to monitor the performance of an underlying index, commodity, or portfolio of assets. If you want to track a particular index, you don't have to buy shares in any of the companies that make up the index.
Let’s look at the characteristics of this product structure and why it is taking the investment world by storm. The main ones are:
1. Transparency
2. Exchange listing
3. Tax efficiency
4. Lower fees
5. Diversity
Transparency
All investors benefit from portfolio transparency because it protects them from risk. An investor must recognize that no other fund product on the market gives a daily accounting of the fund's holdings like the ETF. Portfolio holdings were traditionally only published quarterly or semiannually. ETFs make their portfolios available to the public on a daily basis.
Exchange listing
There are three major benefits of exchanging listing:
Standardization
Intraday trading
Liquidity
Standardization is a huge benefit for holding the same multi-asset portfolios all within the same account structure. Instead of having two separate parts of your portfolio with associated problems, you can now keep your bond position wrapped in an ETF structure within your investment account. You can also include your commodity piece as well as your alternate options.
Intraday trading has been a feature that has proven to be both beneficial and detrimental
Liquidity - Listing a product on an exchange and introducing it to a broader range of market participants in a standardized format will increase liquidity and reduce spreads beyond what was previously available. In the market, you can often see instances where the ETF price is trading between the underlying basket's "bid" and "ask" spread. The ability to access liquidity within the bid and ask of the underlying assets is a benefit that mutual fund portfolio managers and investors do not have.
Tax efficiency
The major tax advantage of the ETF structure within the portfolio management process derives from the concept of in-kind “creation” and “redemption.” The process is complicated and it has to do with the daily operations of the ETF in the primary and secondary market versus the ones of a mutual fund.
Lower fees
The introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to the market has resulted in a large reduction in the fees that investors must pay in order to obtain a wide range of easy-to-manage exposures as building blocks for a portfolio. This is important for investors because it allows them to keep their positions without worrying about gains being distributed to other investors who are buying and leaving the ETF, as is the case with mutual funds.
Diversity
The thousands of exchange-traded funds presently available offer a wide range of exposures. Investors can choose from a wide range of ETFs to achieve their desired exposure. This could include anything from main indices to overseas fixed income, leveraged commodity bets, and everything in between. Traditional benchmarks are also evolving as a result of ETFs. ETFs are no longer bound by conventional index schemes. The industry has developed to question how each index is built and what benefit it provides to investors.
Trade with care.
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Sector Rotation March 2021Recent market sector rotation coming out of the COVID crash has confirmed Sector Rotation theory. I made this video to give viewers a brief introduction to the theory and provide some actionable investing ideas based on what Sector Rotation suggests will be the next stocks to potentially outperform.
Sector Rotation theory suggests that from market bottoms the two sectors that should lead are Consumer Discretionary and Technology. These two sectors did in fact lead the market out of the COVID crash. The next sectors to lead as the market matures are Industrials and Materials. These too followed the theory through 2020 as the bull market grew. At the market top Energy is supposed to lead and sure enough we have seen quite the run on Energy related stocks. What that means going forward if the theory holds is that Consumer Staples and Healthcare should outperform the market.
True story. My Single put option "2 contract" both down/SPX downWhen i did my idea about the completion of an Elliott wave structure with 5th wave
1.61 Fibs of wave one i decided that i would buy small 2 SPY single Put contracts just
satisfy my "bias" and my "emotion" toward my Elliott wave count as a worthy trading strategy.
So i bought April 16 2021 + March 31 2021 just before the last price action we
got in the past 5 days or so . A prefect timing to say the least to test the market
and a perfect timing to buy single Put to say the least. Even though i new stimulus
is coming soon and this could be another buy the dip pullback but i did it any way
regardless of the huge risk if i actually have invested allot of money or bought allot of contracts.
Therefore, when we got the recent pullback i opened my account and guess what i saw.
Both of my "Single Put contracts" are down 41 % % 49 % and that's was at the bottom
around 3800. Just imagine the situation the market is in ,SPX is down around 3 % and you hold
single puts you bought just at the top, and at the very bottom your down more than 40%. Well
the only thing i concluded from this "test the market" kind of style trading is at 3800sh
i came to the conclusion way before the move of spx higher that this is "Buy the dip"
pullback, because there is no way that we are correcting and my puts will go down in value
instead going up in value and big investors regardless of their different kinds did not buy
insurance what so ever for any possible correction. The only thing i should've down is to buy
single Calls to see if they have increased in value or no, i guess the should've increased in value
if this was buy the dip pullback because the new where the market is going. I have never tested
this strategy before, but from my understanding that some big investors use it with single stocks
not with SPY like me or ETFs for that matter before they decide to hold big chunk of it. I hope you
can take a way something beneficial to you trading strategies or you have learned little something from my
live example of a true story of mine. Wish you all the best.
ETF to watch for March (BUY) Russia RSXThis is a Russia ETF.
More info here
www.vaneck.com
The chart pattern is showing a "cup n handle",
go long if we can breakout of this resistance $26.42
More on cup n handle pattern.
www.investopedia.com
VDJP Daily - Time to start averaging back inOne of my favourite ETFs and I am keen to start getting back to full weight.
Technical points:
- Hidden bullish RSI
- Gapped down and extended from 20SMA
- Upward sloping support
May drop further to 25 to re-test massive inverse H&S break - will be a further opportunity to buy more
ETFs, ARKK and GBTC: Stocks, ETFs and Crypto all in oneSource: www.coindesk.com
Feb 12, 2021 at 7:44 p.m. Updated Feb 16, 2021 at 5:01 p.m.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management increased its holdings of the Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) by 2.14 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2020, bringing its holdings of the market-leading institutional bitcoin investment vehicle to 7.31 million shares.
- ARK, the actively managed exchange-traded fund run by legendary manager and early bitcoin investor Cathie Wood, made the disclosure in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
- At press time, ARK's holdings of GBTC are worth $357.5 million.
- ARK's boosted stake is an increase from the 5.17 million GBTC shares it held on Oct. 31, 2020.
- Not only did ARK's holdings in GBTC rise in the fourth quarter, the value of GBTC shares took off as well, reflecting the meteoric rise in the price of bitcoin during that same time period.
- GBTC shares rose 222% in the fourth quarter and are up 39% so far this year. The price of bitcoin increased 177% in Q4 and is up 63.1% YTD.
- Grayscale is owned by CoinDesk parent company Digital Currency Group.
VUKE Daily - VERY slowly averaging back inThis morning we got the gap close we have been waiting for. Using this as an opportunity to slowly start averaging back in (ISA & SIPP portfolios) as I am very underweight (current 21% vs. circ 70% total equities target). Suspect/hoping we still get better levels, but happy to start ticking away here after going underweight early last week.
SPY perspectives - two potential scenarios (update)Friday we saw big activity in volumes and the price pushed below the internal support line. With the two cases currently we are taking the path of the bearish one. On Thursday we've closed in a pinbar which was an additional price action confirmation that we are heading into a reversal. If the current conditions remain I would expect for the price to fall down towards the $360 zone. It is a psychological level as well and there will be an attempt to keep that zone unbreached. Technicals are all in faveour of a correction. Fundamentals remain to be worsened, but definetly Wall Street does not like the trading of WSB's participants and that gives a negative tick to the market.
WARNING! The biggest short seller of is “Goldman Sachs Hedge Industry VIP ETF” and I don’t know the other ones. But this one for example holds a lot of healthcare stocks (for example Change Healthcare Inc CHNG). So by buying GME some healthcare stocks, paypal, apple... etc. get at least under pressure. And a lot of stuff is invested in this etf. I couldn’t do the full research but higher prices in GME could destroy your saving on the bank or life insurances or… so nobody knows who really wins with higher prices. Maybe somebody can research that who really is losing here Please, before everything is to late. Maybe this was even on purpose to get rid of unpaid bill to the “regular” people. This ETF goes bankrupt and all the invested Money in this etf is gone! Can someone please make a full research! I wasn’t able to find it!
SPY perspectives - two scenariosWe are moving into a more and more tight price action as we are in the end of the wedge now and with the rise of volumes we see some heighten activity in trading.
RSI and MACD divergence are still showing divergence with the price and RSI is almost below 50. MACD has a bearish crossing and the histogram is going negative.
Two possible scenarios are forming now. We have a bullish one that is currently forming as we've jumped from the internal support around 373 price zone.
Failing to continue the movement back inside the uptrend we may see a fall below 373 and move towards the first support zone at 360.
Update on XLE: Uptrend test, TA signaling a correctionThe ETF's recovery is starting to show its first cracks as we have dropped from Yesterday's highs and closed without an attempt to buy the dip. Volumes were the around the average for the day and the fall could be mostly a result from long covering.
But there are some technicals that suggest we may return back inside the range. RSI and MACD have bearish crossovers and RIS is also below 50. MACD's histogram is going negative.
Current price is sitting on two major supports and today's price action will be an important one. This is an area for caution.
Update on XLE: Potential continuation of the uptrendTaking a look back at XLE we can see that the ETF has returned to test the area of breach of the symmetrical triangle (or the current support of the descending trend line). Pick up in volume shows that the activity has risen and market participants are getting excited. A breach was made a classical follow-up test was made. Currently, we are sitting at the support and overall there was no attempt in Yesterday's market session to push below it. The dip was bought and XLE closed firmly with a fresh high for the day. Even though here RSI and MACD are laying out the perspectives for a deeper correction it may be "skipped". Recovery in energy assets may pull up the ETF away from the support for the uptrend to continue.
My personal view is that trend will continue and XLE will rise, but it won't be wise not to forecast a negative scenario as well.
The outlook will shift to negative if we see a strong push back inside the triangle. Fundamentals are still shaky with the COVID-19 pandemic still raging. This may raise the question of additional lockdowns or stopping global flights again, which will hit oil and energy prices overall.
GDX's downtrend continues. Perspectives and thoughtsGDX's downtrend has cast a shadow over gold's price and last week we saw a determined continuation of the downtrend for the Vaneck ETF. The ETF's price broke through the support with an average volume of 26.52M for Friday's trading session and buyers made no attempt to by the dip. We've closed with full-body under the support and below the $36 level. In the days before the drop on Friday, we saw some increase in volumes as some selling started to accumulate. RSI remains below the 50 ballast line and MACD has made a bearish crossover. The histogram is below 0.
The perspectives for the ETF remain negative with the overall sentiment leaning towards sell and strong sell. My target for the ETF is $31.35 - $31.25 zone. The rise in bond prices keeps Gold and the corresponding ETF's unattractive at this point.
Revisiting XLE and the recovery of the energy sectorUpdate from a previous post: XLE developing nicely as the price has managed the get out of the range and yesterday we opened with a gap and there almost no attempt to push the price down and to fill the small gap. MACD's crossing is widening and the histogram is expanding as well. RSI moving to the overbought zone, but there is some more room for additional movement North before any correction. The energy sector is starting to recover more and more and demand for the ETF is rising as well. Volumes support the recent movement. My short-term target is $47.
GDX ready to push up?RSI above 50, MACD still with a positive upward slope, as well as a rising histogram. Runaway gap from Yesterday made with a big volume spike and wasn't tested nor covered. An eventual test of the gap would be an additional bullish confirmation, but depending on gold's price that may be skipped.
$QQQ way overbought, hanging at the tops$QQQ stretching, supported by "sky is the limit" motive, but hanging dangerously at the top levels. MACD and RSI pointing for future correction, volumes are descending since November. Interesting to see if buyers manage to reach a new ATH or the ETF is going to take a break.
Blend Investing - When to Add New Stocks & ETFsIn this Tutorial I discuss WFH (Work From Home ETF) and the UBER Stock. These have been recently added to my Blend investing portfolio. BUT I didn't get in them when they were first listed!
Instead I discuss, in this video tutorial, how to watch the behaviour and use technical trading knowledge and indicators to add them to your investing portfolio at the right time.