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short vol coming off near outside upweve gained in the market, shed short volume on vix, shed weight on short vix, and lost slightly in svxy. if you study the long term picture svxy is near breakout. 69.69 and 79.79 roughly are levels to beat before were really in the green to clear $100 as the market rebounds. ive drawn a path that can hopefully outline what the topping out proccess could look like as uvxy heads for 1:10 reverse split. normally we revisit the fib bands when price comes off overbought, but im still bullish while were above mon-wed lows targeting 66.66
CBOE:SVXYLong
by cerealpatterns
im forced to assume dumpsterfire in real estate still oncomparisons are telling us simply when more people are able to borrow money real estate does better. interest rate data from whale crew tells us as long as we climb this indication the risk gets worse for borrowers. as long as those go in the specified direction im looking at higher prices in this fund. all is normal as in everyone is doing fine, and still doesnt want to buy a home; snafu reit. housing market could recover i just want these metrics to go the opposite way before i call it a recovery.
AMEX:DRV
by cerealpatterns
MNQ struggling to break resistance. Launchpad setting upIf you trade the MICROS, like me, then you'll want to be cautiously aware of a key Flag/APEX pattern setting up in the MNQ. Any breakout above the PURPLE resistance channel may prompt a strong upside price rally after February 12th or so. Pay attention to the volatility over the next 10+ days as the ES/NQ/YM are likely to struggle and become wildly volatile as price attempts to break free of the downward trend channels. If you have not been following my research, please check out my other TradingView posts and other resources. The next 5+ years are going to be very surprising for traders/investors. Get ready for a Wave-5 rally.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by BradMatheny
Yearly open price actionStocks closed pretty strong for the year, and the yearly open filled a gap very quickly. At the moment, I see very little evidence that the year will start with a massive dump, especially after 2022 was so brutal for stocks, bonds, and crypto. It looks more likely that things will first go up and then potentially go down. The market resuming its bounce makes more sense before it goes down again. In my opinion, Q1 has the potential to be a bullish quarter, with SPX getting even up to 4400. It might be a massive bull trap, but it's possible. I think the Q1-Q3 period has the potential to be very choppy and much choppier than people imagine. Instead of having a clear trend, we might see a ton of chop that frustrates both bulls and bears, and then eventually a resumption either to the upside or downside, depending on what global liquidity is like and how markets force Central banks to act. Even though I see a recession coming, I've been talking about how it wouldn't come in 2022 and that all we saw in 2022 was a slowdown and inflation, giving its place to disinflation. I doubt the recession will start in Q1 2023 and that markets might not crash until Q4 2023. At the same time, it's clear that the USD is in a challenging position and that the Fed is cornered while other central banks are increasing liquidity while raising rates. Maybe the market finally accepts that interest rates won't be higher than inflation over the next few years, and they price that in. Finally, we need to remember that the Fed started hiking in March 2022 and that the impact of their hikes could take anywhere from 12 to 24 months until they genuinely impact the economy. So let's focus on what the current price action is telling us on SPX, NDX, and RUT. On my main chart, I have S&P 500 and the potential scenarios I see. I see the Monthly Pivot and the critical breakdown zone being tested. We currently have a double top at 3880 which will most likely be broken. A lot will then depend on whether the market will close above the Monthly Pivot. If it does, it may go significantly higher toward 4350-4400. Until I see a close below 3750, I don't think it makes sense to be very bearish, as the market is trading in a range, so it could first take out the highs, then the lows, and then move higher. It's, therefore, better to take it step by step. For NDX below, we can see that the market has found decent support and could bounce. In my opinion, we will see new lows on Nasdaq much faster than all other indices, and I am pretty sure we will get new lows in 2023, even if we don't see other indices make new lows. For RUT, we are in a mini range, which is part of a more extensive range. And I think we first take the highs and then the lows. In my opinion, the market will trade both at 1630 and 1910, so it's all a matter of how we get to each point. Either way, both look very attractive for going long or short.
FX:SPX500
by BitcoinMacro