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Trading Plans for FRI. 08/04 - The Precarious Rally Continues...S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 08/04 As we published in our earlier trading plans: "The question on everybody's mind - whether they are a bull or a bear or a bystander - is: "How long can this rally continue?". And, nobody knows - or, can know - the answer, of course. But, as long as there are doubters, the rally will still have some steam left in it - mostly feeding on short squeezes". As we published in the wake of the US debt downgrade: "There is a potential for sudden spikes up to squeeze the shorts in the near term. Might be risky to stay short while the index is above 4500", the 4500 support level has held and the index survived any potential downfall from the US debt downgrade. At least, for now. The level of 4545-4550 is now the main resistance level, with 4500 the immediate support. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4550, 4532, 4520, 4506, or 4491 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4545, 4528, 4516, 4502, or 4487 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4537, and explicit short exits on a break above 4537 (same level). Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 01:01pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: Our positional models carried a short overnight, with an entry of 4509.90 and a short exit at 4516 (or, the equivalent in ES futures after hours). The short exit level was hit overnight closing the short at a deemed level of 4516 for a loss of 6.10 index points. For today, positional models indicate staying flat. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #debtdowngrade, #usdowngrade, #usdebtdowngrade, #usdebtrating
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P 500, 8/4/23For Friday, 4553.75 can contain intraday strength, 4515.75 in reach again intraday and able to contain selling through next week, above which 4685.75 longer-term resistance remains in reach over the next 2- 3 weeks. Closing today below 4515.75 signals 4424.50 by the end of next week, where the market can bottom out through August activity and a meaningful downside continuation point over the same time horizon. Upside Friday, pushing/opening above 4553.75 allows 4617.25, able to contain daily buying pressures and the level to settle above for then indicating 4665.25 on Monday, now considered the start of a wide zone of midterm resistance up to 4685.75 able to contain buying into September activity and a significant upside continuation region into later year.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
The Precarious Rally Might be Stalling? Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 08/03 As we published in our earlier trading plans: "The question on everybody's mind - whether they are a bull or a bear or a bystander - is: "How long can this rally continue?". And, nobody knows - or, can know - the answer, of course. But, as long as there are doubters, the rally will still have some steam left in it - mostly feeding on short squeezes". Earnings notwithstanding, the U.S. downgrade by the ratings agencies could have the potential to stall the bull. But, the bears should be cautious about jumping the gun, yet. There is a potential for sudden spikes up to squeeze the shorts in the near term. Might be risky to stay short while the index is above 4500. The level of 4545-4550 is now the main resistance level, with 4500 the immediate support. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4550, 4520, 4506, or 4491 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4545, 4527, 4516, 4502, or 4487 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4537, and explicit short exits on a break above 4537 (same level). Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:16pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: Following our published trading plans yesterday, our positional models went short on a break below 4515 (at 3:09pm, at a short entry of 4514.93) with a 16-point trailing stop and carried the short overnight with the 16-point trailing stop effective (see the overnight exposure explanation below for positional trading plans). The short made a low at 3:55am, survived the stop till 5:10am (based on the price action in the futures markets) where it was hit, closing the position at 4526.25, for a loss of 11.32 index points. For today, positional models indicate going short on a break below 4520 or 4510, with a hard stop at 4527 and an explicit short exit on a break above 4516. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #debtdowngrade, #usdowngrade, #usdebtdowngrade, #usdebtrating
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P 500, 8/3/23For Thursday, 4553.75 can contain intraday strength, 4510.25 expected intraday and able to contain weekly selling pressures, once tested 4685.75 longer-term resistance attainable by the end of next week.   Closing today below 4510.25 signals 4418.75 by the end of next week, where the market can bottom out through August activity and a meaningful downside continuation point over the same time horizon.   Upside Thursday, pushing/opening above 4553.75 allows 4617.25, also able to contain intraday strength and the level to settle above for then allowing 4659.75 intraday, able to contain session strength.   A daily settlement above 4659.75 signals a test tomorrow of 4685.75 - 4699.00 long-term resistance, able to contain buying into September activity and a significant upside continuation point into later year.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Buy the Dip: Venus Retrograde, New Bull Market Incoming!The S&P 500 failed to hold its downward trend in December and January (see my previous setup linked below). We closed our December short trade at a moderate profit and waited for further information. A breakout has occurred, and the S&P 500 looks to be backtesting the neck line of a giant inverse head and shoulder originating in June 2022. A retest of 3975 without substantial momentum would serve as an entry point to this trade (or related trades if you prefer to buy individual stocks based on the movement of the S&P 500, something I personally like to do). There are several major points supporting a bullish thesis going forward. Given the wide zone, I am going to use LEAPs rather than futures to avoid liquidation. Here are my buy points: A. 4085 (golden cross retest): achieved today. B. 3975 (neckline test) C. 3650 (lower trend bracket test) D. 3800: mid-point between B and C 1. For those who only subscribe to trend-following systems, many traditional systems have turned bullish in the past week. The media covered the golden cross widely last week. A lesser known, but robust and decidedly less noisy system: the moving regression channel has now confirmed a bullish uptrend since October. A test of the middle trend line (also 3975) would be a bullish entry point. Also, the zone between 3975 and 3650 would be a solid place to add non-leveraged individual stocks. Personally: I'm adding individual stocks en masse between 4080 and 3650. I'm adding LEAPs at 4080 and also as low as 3650. This is a long, multi-year trade. These options should expire in mid 2024 or later. Ideally, you'd roll them to early 2025 next Winter anticipating Biden's reelection, as 2024 is an election year, and Presidents usually win reelection (and the market does very well when they do). 2. For those who subscribe to financial astrology, Venus Retrograde is frequently a turning point in the price of assets. It represents revaluation and change in direction. In recent years, it has been a robust signal during bear markets and a less robust signal during bull markets (the 2015 and 2018 corrections never led to a sustained bear market, for example, although one might argue that the two 18% declines in 2015 as well as December 2018 and March 2020 during the same intra-VenusR period fit the pattern well enough). Venus Retrograde in March 2009 and May 2020 both occurred during the last two bear markets and signaled the beginning of a new bull cycle. Even the 1929 crash occurred along with a Venus Retrograde (there was an attempt at recovery 18 months later that subsequently failed). Thus, July 2023 is a strong candidate for the beginning of a new bull market. 3. Inflation (m/m) since July 2022 has run at a 1.8% annualized rate. This means the Y/Y CPI % could be around 2% or lower as of July 2023 if the trend continues. With inflation possibly moving below the Fed's target once July numbers are released in August 2023, we could anticipate dovish statements or even talk of rate cuts, which would send markets much higher. While there are some good reasons to be bullish from July, we know the market is efficient and often front-runs good news, and the uptrend since October has already been confirmed, just as the 2020 reversal occurred previously in late March 2020. With 5 months remaining, we should be looking for a favorable long entries between now and then. Dips below 4000 and especially below 3800 should be bought.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by David_Warren_Ellison
The Precarious Rally Might be Stalling? Day 1S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 08/02 As we published in our earlier trading plans: "The question on everybody's mind - whether they are a bull or a bear or a bystander - is: "How long can this rally continue?". And, nobody knows - or, can know - the answer, of course. But, as long as there are doubters, the rally will still have some steam left in it - mostly feeding on short squeezes". Earnings notwithstanding, the U.S. downgrade by the ratings agencies could have the potential to stall the bull. But, the bears should be cautious about jumping the gun, yet. There is a potential for sudden spikes up to squeeze the shorts in the near term. Might be risky to stay short while the index is above 4500. The previously stated level of 4575-4580 is now the main resistance level, with 4500 the immediate support. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4550, 4520, 4506, or 4491 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4545, 4527, 4516, 4502, or 4487 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit long exits, and explicit short exits on a break above 4530 or 4537. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:16am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: Our positional models indicate going short on a break below 4515 with a 16-point trailing stop. If models open a short and survive into the close, models indicate continuing the trailing stop which will be effective overnight (see the overnight exposure explanation below for positional trading plans). By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usrating, #ratingdowngrade, #usdowngrade, #usratingdowngrade
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P 500, 8/2/23For Wednesday, 4553.75 can contain session weakness, 4654.50 in reach and able to contain session strength.   A daily settlement above 4653.50 signals a test this week of 4685.75 - 4699.00 long-term resistance, able to contain buying into September activity and a significant upside continuation point into later year.   Downside Wednesday, closing below 4553.75 signals 4504.75 within several days, able to contain selling through next week and the point to settle below for yielding 4407.75 longer term support over the same time horizon.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Trading Plans for MON. 07/31: Will The Precarious Rally ContinueS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 08/01 The question on everybody's mind - whether they are a bull or a bear or a bystander - is: "How long can this rally continue?". And, nobody knows - or, can know - the answer, of course. But, as long as there are doubters, the rally will still have some steam left in it - mostly feeding on short squeezes. Earnings this week should shed some more light on how the markets are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. If they continue to appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. But, If the earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top. The previously stated level of 4575-4580 is now the key support/resistance level, with the 4603-4610 range the next resistance level. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4583, 4561, or 4537 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4575, 4557, or 4527 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4568, 4548, or 4532, and explicit short exits on a break above 4532, 4552, or 4568. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:11am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: Our positional models continue to indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P500 Near the short term top. Sell.Apart from the long term Channel Up since March, S&P500 is trading inside a short term one in the last 10 days. This is much alike the one in April. Both started after a +4.70% rise. Eventually the April fractal pulled back to the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the MA200 (4h). Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price or as close to the Channel as possible. Targets: 1. 4500 (0.5 Fibonacci level and expected course of the MA200 4h). Tips: 1. The (4h) RSI is also forming the same Channel Down pattern as April. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
5
S&P 500, 8/1/23For Tuesday, 4553.75 can contain session weakness, 4649.00 in reach and able to contain session strength.   A daily settlement above 4653.50 signals a test this week of 4685.75 - 4699.00 long-term resistance, able to contain buying into September activity and a significant upside continuation point into later year.   Downside Tuesday, closing below 4553.75 signals 4499.25 within several days, able to contain weekly selling pressures and the point to settle below for yielding 4402.50 longer term support by the end of next week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Will This Precarious Rally Continue? Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 07/31 The question on everybody's mind - whether they are a bull or a bear or a bystander - is: "How long can this rally continue?". And, nobody knows - or, can know - the answer, of course. But, as long as there are doubters, the rally will still have some steam left in it - mostly feeding on short squeezes. Earnings this week should shed some more light on how the markets are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. If they continue to appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. But, If the earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top. The previously stated level of 4575-4580 is now the key support/resistance level, with the 4603-4610 range the next resistance level. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4592 or 4583 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4579, 4570, or 4562 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4589 or 4585, and explicit short exits on a break above 4565 or 4574. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:31pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: Our positional models continue to indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
1
S&P 500, 7/31/23The 4685.75 - 4699.00 region can contain buying through August, once tested 4397.00 attainable within 3 - 5 weeks where the market can bottom out through September. A daily settlement below 4397.00 indicates 4147.50 long-term support over the following 3 - 5 weeks, able to contain selling through the balance of the year. Upside, a daily settlement above 4699.00 indicates the 4808.25, January 2022 high within several weeks, and onto new highs within several months. - For Monday, 4581.00 can contain session weakness, 4643.50 in reach and able to contain session strength. A daily settlement above 4653.50 signals a test this week of 4685.75 - 4699.00 long-term resistance, able to contain buying into September activity and a significant upside continuation point into later year. Downside Monday, breaking/opening below 4581.00 signals 4557.50, while closing below 4581.00 signals 4493.75 within the week, able to contain weekly selling pressures and the point to settle below for yielding 4397.00 longer term support within 3 - 5 more days.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
#SP500 Update $SPYI keep watching for indications of trend tiredness, such as an ending diagonal pattern backed by divergence against the RSI, despite the market's persistent ascent. I believe I have located the little wave c that is marked with the numbers 12345 in grey letters. However, I believe that this is not the end and should be followed by wave c of (y) that is larger in magnitude, which began in June. And based on what has occurred thus far, I would anticipate another, even larger diagonal - C of (X) - to bundle everything together. Too many expectations, and they must all be met one by one.
FX:SPX500
by Fomenka
ES1! Whoa, bro! The SP500 and E Mini are totally gearing up for a radical ride! 🏄‍♂️ They're cruising towards some major stops, and if they start showing some gnarly price weakness, there might be a chance for a sick reversal to fill that daily liquidity void. Dude, that's like the perfect setup for a killer retracement trade against the wave! And check this out, man, there's a potential long trade possibility from the liq fill around the $4327 region on ES1! 🤙 That's like catching a big wave right before it breaks, setting you up for a tubular ride to the moon! Keep your eyes peeled, bro, 'cause this market's gonna be a wild one! Watch for those juicy setups and get ready to drop in on those sweet trades! 🌊 Stay chill, trust your instincts, and ride those waves like a true surfer of the market! So, dudes, let's shred it out there, take those opportunities, and ride the markets like we're born to do! Cowabunga, my trading bros! 🤘😎
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by themarketknight
Weekly Update: Dead Bears are Starting to Stink up the JointThe last couple months have been challenging if you were bearish on the markets. However, recently it seems one by one, all the bearish analysts and money managers are now issuing their mea culpas, and are quickly embracing the bullish market perspective. I am no different. I made the mistake of allowing my analytical bias to remain front and center for too long within this move off the October 2022 lows. Its obvious now that I have the benefit of hindsight. When the ES advanced past 4208.50 in late May and subsequently went straight up, I should have been open to higher levels. Now the SP Futures are within 5% of their all-time highs. This post is not an attempt to justify my past perspectives post May. If I am to be 100% objective, the probabilities do favor bears now more so than any time in the past 10 Months. Let me explain. Our decline from the January 2022 highs surprised most market watchers. My scan of perspectives of in January 2022 timeframe yielded most we’re expecting a minor decline, only to the 4300-4400 level. The 3500 level was a surprise to nearly all. Currently most market watchers have remained cautious to outright bearish since October 2022, and are now surprised. Myself included. But we should expect a decline now. The question should be to what magnitude. Bears can dwell on the inverted yield curve, the potential for a recession, the unprecedented interest rate escalation and to what end? The markets continue to advance in the face of unparalleled uncertainty. Side Note: Do the markets like uncertainty now? LOL As an Elliottition, I can say we are at the end of a wave count now. That doesn’t mean we can’t extend higher. It also doesn’t mean we won’t hit new all-time highs later in the year. But even in the bullish scenario, we’re at a top. Of what magnitude I cannot say because this retracement will give us the answers we need to come to that conclusion. The various pathways are outlined in the above chart. However, what drives the market is the prevailing investor sentiment of market participants. Below you will see a chart of investor sentiment. ycharts.com We have recently hit a high in sentiment where declines soon follow. So, I think it’s prudent to keep in eye on sentiment in conjunction with the market price machinations. Lastly where as the Nasdaq had led the way up off last years low, I ask is the Nasdaq about to led us in the decline? The Nasdaq looks to have a high probability, low risk set up to the downside. Sure, the set-up can be invalidated…but in my opinion, we’re so close to the recent highs that the risk can be controlled with stops. Whereas, this set up could easily yield a 1,000-point decline vs a couple hundred-point advance, determined by one’s risk appetite. I have issued my mea culpa. It’s time to get back to being objective; and to be 100% objective we should soon expect a tradeable decline with some meat on the bones for the Bears. After which, we can assess the possibility of new all-time highs, or something even more ominous to the downside.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
2