SPX short again @ 4445 +/-. 6/Oct/23. SP500 indeed completed wave A ( Red Circled ), now "pulling back" toward 4445 +/- a confluence zone of :- 1) Fibo 61.8% 2) Down Trendline (red) and etc.. Possible another -17.32%.
Es1
Combined US Indexes slammed furtherPreviously mentioned that the supports are being broken. It gave way after an expected bounce. The dip that followed came with confirmation technical signals as well as a lower low… suggesting that there is downward momentum still. Saving grace lies with a pullback rally to end the previous week just above the support line. However, this appears to be futile, with shallow bullish bounces expected, and a close below the major support line.
Thing is this… there should be a close below the line and it needs to hold below for another three weeks to firm up more downside. But a rally back up above that critical support (then turned resistance) would be a good bullish rally to look for, albeit later in the year end/beginning.
Next four weeks should see at least two weekly closes below support.
In line and in support of this indication, TIPS and TLT, with JNK have led the markets by pushing further new lows of late.
Heads up.
Stronger-for-Longer Jobs Spooking the Markets?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 10/06
As we published in our trading plans yesterday, Thu. 10/05: "With JOLTS on Tuesday, Initial Jobless Claims Numbers this morning, and Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow, this week is all about Jobs and Jobs. So far, there is no sign of any letting up in the strength of the Job market". This morning's much stronger than expected NFP data re-affirmed this strength and quashing any hopes of a softer fed anytime soon.
Since our published trading plans two weeks ago pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4267, 4252, 4227, or 4211 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4247, 4233, 4224, or 4208 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4264, and explicit short exits on a break above 4237. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #nfp, #nonfarm, #payrolls
S&P 500: Ready for takeoff 🛫Yesterday, the S&P 500 climbed back into our magenta Target Zone, which was important for our primary scenario to remain intact. In the next step, the index should now succeed in surmounting the resistances at 4365 and 4634 in order to establish the high of the magenta wave (v) above these marks. So, for now, it is essential for S&P to push the rise further and to sustainably distance itself from the low of the magenta wave (iv).
S&P500 Bottom of the Megaphone. Buy over the MA50 (4h).S&P500 is trading inside a Falling Megaphone pattern, having completed 20 days under the MA50 (4h).
That is the buy break out signal, as it was on the previous bullish leg of the Megaphone.
The price hit the MA200 (1d) and bounced. Bullish signal so far.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy when the price closes over the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 4400 (between the 0.786 Fibonacci level and the MA200 (4h)).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is trading inside a Falling Wedge of its own. Take profit if its Falling Resistance gets hit before the 4400 target.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
Forget Soft, Hard Or No Landing, Higher For Longer...Is the Stock Market Dead Money For The Next 10-20 Years?
So much of how our markets work is based on optimism. Can you imagine being a money manager and your entire sales pitch is some negative diatribe about how the market is going down and will continue to go down?
Would you fork over your hard-earned savings based on such a story? Not a successful plan of attack for a person trying to raise capital if you ask me.
However, therein lies the disconnect between what is really going on in today’s market, versus what the average person reads and hears in the financial news. The same optimistic money managers sponsor those articles or those TV shows. Would your business buy an ad on a show or in a magazine that constantly gave a negative outlook on your business?
I’ve always considered myself an optimist. However, nowadays, I find nothing to be optimistic about with respect to the US stock markets. The reason is, my prevailing analytical thesis is, the markets are now entering a long-term cycle in which many aspects of our economy will be reverting to their respective long-term mean. From interest rates, to income inequality. This time frame, I refer to, is meant to be a reset in expectations. If I am correct in my analysis, this will unfold over a long period of time. During this period, many of old correlations and metrics used to determine the value of the stock market, assets in general, (housing, for example) will break down and end up becoming less useful to those who fundamentally analyze assets, stocks and the markets for a living. The cycle I am referring to is one in which none of the current market participants have experienced. Now before you draw a hasty conclusion, and think this article is about me warning you, the reader, a 1987 stock market crash scenario is on the horizon, I’ll caution you. It is not.
However, my analysis shows that the market will essentially become dead money for at least the next decade or two. That means buying most market-based asset classes, and holding them, will not produce the desired results of the past.
Please indulge me while I provide some background and explain.
I practice a form of market analysis that is exclusively focused on price action. I guess you could sum up my work by styling me as a pattern analyst. That means stock market news, events, corporate earnings and all external data is of little concern to me as I carry out my day-to-day analysis on the SP500. I never take those external events into account while analyzing any of the markets I cover. I watch the patterns market participants create with their buys and sells. I study those patterns across the many markets I cover and over both the short and extremely long periods of time. One could say I took my mother’s advice to heart, and watch what they do, not what they say. It’s the law large crowds, and the larger the crowd, the more accurate the forecast. The SP500 contains one of the largest crowds assembled. Each day it involves millions of participants, exchanging large volumes of assets for vast sums of money. Suffice to say, my work can produce some scary accurate forecasts based on the participation of the crowds in those markets.
A final anecdote to explain my work lies in a simple experiment I observed some time ago on YouTube. To illustrate the power of large crowds, a YouTuber decides to conduct an experiment. The individual fills a large mason jar with marbles. The half gallon sized mason jar is now brimming with marbles, and the metal lid is twisted on, sealing the jar. The individual then attends a local carnival and sets up a booth to solicit guesses as to the total amount of marbles contained in the mason jar. Volunteers are asked to simply observe the jar, and write down their guesses on a post-it-note. After collecting a large number of post-it-notes, the guesses are entered into a spreadsheet. Next, the marbles are emptied on a carpet and counted. 1340 marbles. Comparing the spreadsheet data, the conclusion was, although some volunteers came close in guessing the correct number of marbles, no one guessed correctly. Guesses ranged from as low as 300 to as high as 3,000. A seemingly random data set. However, under further examination, the average of the total guesses were 1335 marbles. This simple experiment explains the legitimacy of some sort of “inexplicable collective consciences” when involving a large crowd.
My current bearish perspective manifests itself in this same notion of the large crowd of market participants but over an extremely long-time frame of the SP500 (INDEXSP: .INX).
Below is a chart of the price action of the index from inception.
To put a simple explanation on the chart above. Since the stock market crash of 1929, the price pattern of the SP500 has essentially advanced in a 45-degree angle higher. I will spare you my explanation of the labeling of the chart as to not bore you as those details do little to further my explanation of the analysis. However, I will state that all our society has achieved since in the last 150 years is notated on the above chart. The advancement of technology, medicine, communication, war and peace is all included. For me, this becomes a visual picture of some of the best and worst times humanity has experienced during this time. What is compelling, is some of those pivotal moments barely stands out on the chart.
Fast forward to today.
After almost a 100-year price advance from the 1929 crash, we are now entering a prolonged period of digesting all those gains. I cannot over emphasize that this area of consolidation I forecast is 100% natural and should be no cause for alarm from a pattern analysis standpoint. As stated, that is a simplified explanation of what a super cycle event wave (IV) accomplishes. Additionally, our last Supercycle event, labeled (II), is an area of digesting gains that was hastened once the events of the Spanish Flu of 1918 were behind us and that pent-up demand was unleased. In the US, those times are referred to as the roaring twenties. Cyclically there are many character similarities in our wave (II) and our current wave (IV). Chief among them was a global pandemic and the aftermath. However, in my form analysis, a wave (II) and a wave (IV) are supposed to alternate in terms of time duration and retracement depth. If one takes place over a short period of time, the other should be long. I can see this sort of alternation I refer to take place every day, as it pertains to the very short timeframes. These patterns, whether long or short term, tend to be fractal in nature. Meaning, if you removed the dates and timeframes from a 1-hour chart of the SP500 and a 150-year chart (like the one displayed above) they would look strikingly similar. To a pattern analyst, like myself, I would be unable to discern what timeframe I was looking at. Nonetheless, the patterns would be instantly recognizable. Because these fractals form and complete on the smaller timeframes, through observation we can forecast the same effects on the much longer time duration charts. These fractal patterns tend to be self-similar and repeating.
In conclusion, if what I see unfold each and every day is indeed similar and repeating when observing a price pattern that is 150 years in the making, the conclusion will be a decade or two of dead money due to a long-term cyclical digestion of gains. Call it a “massive reversion to the mean event”. From things like interest rates to income inequality, a total reset to longer term norms.
Additionally, if my analysis is correct, the January 2022 stock market highs will not be breached for a very long time to come. This will be a time where investors will be forced to become more creative and pickier, as it pertains to seeking a return on capital.
A deep dive into Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1.Greetings, I find my previous communication regarding the US dollar was perhaps insufficient in elaborating my viewpoint. Therefore, I have resolved to delve deeper in this correspondence, presenting a thorough analysis to substantiate my conviction that the US dollar is poised for a considerable mark-up phase, from a technical standpoint.
I must clarify that I am not an advocate of fundamental analysis; my interests lie predominantly within the realm of technical patterns. I envisage this upward movement initiating around August 10th, which coincidentally corresponds with a significant Consumer Price Index reading.
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Foremost, let me clarify that my analysis is grounded in the original Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1, composed of approximately five distinct phases. It is my endeavor to convey an understandable summary of these phases to you, my esteemed reader.
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Phase A:
In the Wyckoff Method represents the end of a downward trend in a stock's price. It starts with a significant sell-off (Selling Climax), followed by a brief price recovery (Automatic Rally), and then a less intense sell-off (Secondary Test). These events establish a trading range for the stock price. If the Secondary Test drops below the Selling Climax, further price drops or extended low prices can be expected.
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Phase B:
In Wyckoff's Method is a period of "building a cause," essentially preparing for a new upward trend. Institutions and professional investors start buying more shares at relatively low prices, anticipating a future price rise (the effect). They balance this buying with some short sales to keep the price from rising too fast. During this phase, the price often fluctuates within the trading range established in Phase A, with many Secondary Tests and false price breaks called "upthrusts." This phase can take a long time as big players slowly accumulate shares. As more shares are bought up, the volume of shares traded during price downswings tends to decrease, signaling the end of Phase B and the start of Phase C.
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Phase C:
In Wyckoff's Method is where the stock price is tested to see if it's ready for an upward trend. This phase often includes a "spring", a sudden drop below the established trading range that quickly reverses. This can trick late sellers into thinking the downtrend is resuming when it's actually the start of an uptrend. A successful spring represents a good opportunity to buy as it signals the stock is likely to start going up. If a "Sign of Strength" (SOS), a noticeable upward price movement, appears after the spring, it confirms this analysis. Sometimes, supply testing can happen without a spring, making Phase C harder to identify.
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Phase D:
In Wyckoff's Method is when demand starts consistently exceeding supply, leading to a dominant upward trend. This phase is marked by "Signs of Strength" (SOSs), or notable upward price movements on high volume, and "Last Points of Support" (LPSs), smaller upward price movements on lower volume. The price will typically reach the top of the trading range during this phase. The LPSs are generally good opportunities to start or add to long positions as they suggest the price is likely to continue rising.
◆::◇::◆::◇::◆◆::◇::◆::◇::◆
Phase E:
In Wyckoff's Method is when the stock price leaves the trading range and begins a clear upward trend, with demand in full control. Any price drops during this phase are usually brief. New higher-level trading ranges can form during this phase as investors take profits and large operators buy more shares, serving as "stepping stones" towards higher prices. This phase makes the price rise visible to all market participants.
◆::◇::◆::◇::◆◆::◇::◆::◇::◆
Glossary of the Wyckoff terms used in the post:
PS (Preliminary Support):
A point where significant buying starts to happen after a prolonged price decrease. The increased volume and price spread suggest the downtrend might be ending.
SC (Selling Climax):
The peak of selling activity, often involving panic selling by the public. Large investors absorb this selling, which can stabilize or increase the price. The price often closes well above the low point, reflecting these large investors' buying activity.
AR (Automatic Rally):
A price increase that happens because selling pressure has significantly decreased. This rally, further driven by short covering, helps set the upper boundary of the accumulation trading range.
ST (Secondary Test):
The price revisits the area of the selling climax to test if demand outweighs supply. To confirm a bottom, the volume and price spread should decrease significantly as the price approaches the support level. It's common to have multiple secondary tests after a selling climax.
Test:
Large operators or professional investors test the market for supply throughout the trading range and at key points during a price advance. If a test reveals considerable supply, the market might not be ready for a markup. A spring is often followed by tests, and a successful test (indicating impending price increases) typically forms a higher low on lower volume.
SOS (Sign of Strength):
This is a price advance on an increasing spread and relatively higher volume. An SOS often follows a spring, which validates the analyst’s interpretation of that action.
LPS (Last Point of Support):
This is the low point of a reaction or pullback after an SOS. Reverting to an LPS implies a pullback to a support level, which was formerly resistance, on a decreased spread and volume. Despite the singular term, there may be multiple LPSs on some charts.
BU (Back-Up):
Coined by Robert Evans, a prominent Wyckoff method teacher, it's a metaphor for a pullback after an SOS, akin to "jumping across the creek" of price resistance and then "backing up to the creek." A back-up often precedes a significant price markup and can appear as a simple pullback or a new trading range at a higher level.
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I appreciate your time in perusing this analysis. In conclusion, I foresee the US dollar potentially reaching an upside target of approximately 110-111 into the end of this year.
Lastly, I invite you to revisit my prior substantial post on the US dollar, wherein I had the occasion to pinpoint "the top".
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💜
JOLTS, Initial Jobless Claims, NFP Friday...S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 10/05
With JOLTS on Tuesday, Initial Jobless Claims Numbers this morning, and Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow, this week is all about Jobs and Jobs. So far, there is no sign of any letting up in the strength of the Job market. Since our published trading plans two weeks ago pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated.
Any hope derived from bad/disappointing economic numbers could eventually morph into a concern for the economy and the potential recession talk down the road. Until a clear directional bias emerges to the bullish side, swing trading with technicals and confirmations appears the prudent way, rather than taking on positional trades.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4300, 4270, 4234, 4223, or 4205 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4298, 4265, 4231, 4219, or 4202 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4280, and explicit short exits on a break above 4284. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #adp, #joblessclaims
Bulls and Bears zone for 10-05-2023After a rally yesterday, equity markets are trading lower again this morning.
Any test of ETH session Low could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch : 4275 --- 4277
Report to watch:
US:EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
"Aggressive" VIX Short/ES Long SetupPossible volatility short/equities long shaping up. Still a lot of downside momentum/catching a bit of a falling knife + we'd rather see the NQ fill its gap south of 14400, but it could be time to start thinking about index longs given the levels both stocks and vol are approaching. Given that the Nasdaq still has further to fall before completing its gap fill, the ES could easily continue its decline (watch support/resistance levels ~4200). Something to keep in mind... Personally, we are waiting for confirmation entries before buying (looking for trend reversal signals on small timeframes), but more aggressive traders may find existing conditions more suitable for starter positions. Targeting is loosely based off of the red ES zones, but can also be mechanically derived and should be refined. Good luck!
JHart @ LionHart Trading
S&P500: Megaphone bottom buy.The S&P500 is technically oversold on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 32.251, MACD = -54.210, ADX = 44.088) but is gathering some bullish momentum on 4H (RSI = 41.446) as the price hit the 1D MA200 and bottom of the Megaphone to form a LL. In addition, it hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level from March's low. This has high chances of evolving into a technical LH rebound, especially with the 4H RSI on a Bullish Divergence. If it holds, we are long, targeting the 4H MA200 (TP = 4,375). If it fails, we will short, targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci level (TP = 4,115).
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Trading Plans for WED. 10/04 - Bad News Good News?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 10/04
The lower-than-expected ADP numbers seem to be giving some hope that the bad news could soften the rising yields and the Fed going forward. The yields have already retreated this morning, and the index is trying to find a floor and rebound. Since our published trading plans two weeks ago pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated.
Any hope derived from bad/disappointing economic numbers could eventually morph into a concern for the economy and the potential recession talk down the road. Until a clear directional bias emerges to the bullish side, trading with technicals and confirmations appears the prudent way, rather than trading on fundamentals.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4285, 4270, 4245, 4220, or 4204 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4265, 4240, 4229, 4217, or 4200 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4280, and explicit short exits on a break above 4232. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #adp
US is running a clinic on how to self-inflict financial woundsEarlier today I was on a conference call with traders examining the index price patterns and discussing the initial price action of The SP500 (INDEXSP: .INX) and the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ: .IXIC) off their July highs. Currently my company is forecasting we revisit, and ultimately breach the October 2022 lows sometime in the first half of 2024. However, what the catalysts are to get us there is speculation. A black swan event of such some stature would need to unfold.
Mid conference call one of the attendees’ types into the zoom chat box, "McCarthy was just removed as speaker!" On the call was a collective...whoa!
I could understand some of you reading this article would say, so what! The US congress has been dysfunctional for some time now. Unfortunately, I would agree and could not find fault with such apathy. However, consider the unintended consequences of such a historic action. Never has a US speaker of the house been removed in such fashion.
What could develop into unintended consequences?
Which such acrimony and division in the lower chamber how can the house agree on anything? The hill conservatives in the house want to die on is the growing national debt. Whether that is disingenuous or not is not the point of this article. I'll let the political pundits argue that. I want to keep this article focused on what is directly related to the US markets.
Government Funding
Through some rare bipartisanship we averted a government shut down just this past weekend. Leading up to this weekend, the news media had all but written the obituary for a funded government through regular order. However, the legislation only funded the government for 47 days. That means it's possible we're back to worrying about a funded US government next month.
Rating Agencies
I have to admit when Fitch downgraded the credit rating of US government debt in August, I was skeptical of that decision. In retrospect, I now understand with all the self-inflicted uncertainty. However, do we need to now worry about Moodys and Standard & Poors. What is the consequence to interest rates if the US credit rating becomes under assault.
Interest Rates
The US markets have yet to acknowledge high interest rates are a structural headwind for company earnings and by extension, the market as a whole. Case in point, the below chart shows the yield on the 10y treasury.
10-year US Treasury Chart
Today, yields are higher than when at the October 2022 lows. The uncertainty created today by historically removing a US speaker of the house does not scream the US should be getting a lower rate on it’s debt. No, it most certainly means the opposite.
Mortgage Rates
12% of US GDP is housing. Aside from Fed action, if rates now go up because of the added uncertainty, we could easily go from positive to negative GDP. No US sector is more rate sensitive than housing.
Consumer Spending
If you thought housing at 12% of GDP was large, the consumer represents 70%. From mortgages, to credit card debt, the consumer was already starting to slow. Higher rates due to uncertainty will cause the consumer recoil, and that's the ballgame.
I could go on about current labor strikes in America and how that could change the employment outlook and the economy on a dime. I could discuss in depth the quantitative tightening action of the federal reserve. All concerns we're currently trying to weigh its impact on the economy.
Now we have to deal with this new added uncertainty. It appears in the US we know how to run a clinic on self-inflicted wounds.
S&P500 targeting 5800 based on this overlooked pattern?The S&P500 index / US500 is testing the Rising Support of Higher Lows this week, stemming directly from the bottom of the 2022 correction.
A symmetric Support is just underneath and this pattern has various (dashed or bold) stemming from the Bear Cycle.
What many may fail to see though is a giant Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that is forming the Right Shoulder.
If that's the case, then S&P can target the Fibonacci 2.0 level at 5800 as early as mid 2025!
Too much to ask??
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Rising Yields Making a Rebound Less LikelyS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 10/03
Since our published trading plans two weeks ago pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated.
The "higher for longer" monetary policy is yet to begin showing its impact on business earnings, and it could take one to two quarters more for us to see the earnings impact - and, hence the analyst forward estimates - which could have some more impact on the market multiples in the short-to-medium term. But, the near term bias will be determined by today's daily close as specified above.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4310, 4300, 4281, 4373, or 4260 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4297, 4280, 4264, or 4257 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4314 or 4288, and explicit short exits on a break above 4265. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger
Are the Bears about to get BOLD?In my latest installment of the repeating Sentiment chart, we get a front row seat on how trader sentiment ebbs and flows with price action. Once we hit the target of 4172-4180, that will be a function of the bearish thesis getting aggressive.
A complete unwinding of the utter junk spewed on CNBC a month ago. New highs possible? Soft landing? The magnificent seven? I stand by the comment I made in my trading room yesterday... CNBC is the most detrimental content I professional trader can ingest.
Why is Tom Lee not on CNBC today? LOL...
Stay safe out there.
Chris
S&P500 It is very important that this Support Cluster holds.The S&P500 (SPX) is testing the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 12-month Channel Up pattern. It is vital for the uptrend that the following Support Cluster holds, as if broken, the next Demand/ Support Zone is seen considerably lower, in the low 3800s.
Back to the Support Zone. Besides the bottom of the Channel Up, we have the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) moving parallel to that and has been unbroken since March 24. More importantly, the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) a former Resistance turned into Support after May's break-out, is marginally below the 1D MA200 and on a former Resistance Zone, which in the past 18 months, only broken twice.
As long as the price closes 1D candles above this critical Support cluster, we expect a short-term (at least) rise to test the top of the Channel Down and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 4430. If the Support fails, expect a greater and perhaps quicker/ more aggressive decline towards 3830 and the former Support Zone.
Notice how the 1D RSI pattern resembles the August - September 2022 correction.
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$spx potencial MM sell Modelset up confirms on closes above 4608 and invalidates on closes below 4043
X Marks the SpotMister X marked the spot.
He did it again in January of 2023.
And apparently, he called it again.
Unfortunately for the markets, mister X has a double identity.
Mr. ❎ = Mr. ➡️
(mister x is my homie mister right)
Classic technical analysis proves them right.
1. Volatility
VIX is compressing, forming a triple bottom. (amongst other taboo signals)
2. Volume
Stock market growth commonly shows volume divergence.
ES1! Volume helps us see a clearer picture on SPX.
After each instance, pain followed. Will this time be different?
I may follow up to this idea with further information. I may not.
Either way, be careful on who you trust (and when).
One thing may be for certain. The time will come when X will miss the spot.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
P.S. For more information on volatility, you may take a look at the idea I posted a while ago.
Day Trade Market Condition oct 02, 2023Day Trade Market Condition oct 02, 2023
levels for NQ ES CL BTC
watch the table left side for trade, right side for trend
S&P500 Will the 1week MA50 and Fib 0.5 hold? 2008 and 2000 show The S&P500 / US500 opened yet another week on red. Last week it closed on a 3 week red streak and is approaching the 1week MA50 and MA100 as well as the Fibonacci 0.5 level.
The Fib 0.5 and 1week MA50 in particular are of high importance as they are what seperated the 2022 stock market correction from the heavy Bear Cycles of 2008 and 2000.
As you can see both the mortgage crisis and dotcom bubble after they crossed under the 1week MA200 and rebounded, they got rejected on the 1week MA50 / Fib 0.5 Resistance cluster and didn't give the extension that we have in 2023 so far.
Often when a Resistance level breaks, the market tends to test it as a Support in order to discover demand momentum. Do you think they will hold?
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
No Rebound In Sight While Below 4320S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 10/02
Since our published trading plans two weeks ago pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4320 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated. This morning, the index is attempting to test the 4320 level. If the daily close is going to be above 4320, then our models will negate the bearish bias and initiate a mildly bullish bias.
The "higher for longer" monetary policy is yet to begin showing its impact on business earnings, and it could take one to two quarters more for us to see the earnings impact - and, hence the analyst forward estimates - which could have some more impact on the market multiples in the short-to-medium term. But, the near term bias will be determined by today's daily close as specified above.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4322, 4301, or 4277 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4319, 4297, 4273, or 4261 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4314 or 4288, and explicit short exits on a break above 4265. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger
/ES Is Set Up to Break Below The Equidistant ChannelBack in August, the SPX traded at the PCZ of a Bearish Butterfly with some Cypher Confluence and I played it through SPXL, a 3x Return ETF via puts, as seen here:
At the same time, the E-mini futures were trading at the PCZ of a Potential Deep Gartley which we now know to be a little bit more than Potential. Since then, it has broken through Local Supports and has formed a small intraweek trading range that seems to have been working on a redistributive price action over the last few weeks, as week by week, Positive Interest has continuously weakened and Negative Interest has gotten more and more aggressive. If this trend continues into the upcoming trading session, we will likely break below the range this week and target the levels of $3700-$3600, which would take us below all the Demand Lines of the Equidistant Channel. This would then set the price up to begin a bigger Bearish move that could end up taking it all the way back down to the 2020 and 2016 support levels.
