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Elliott Wave View S&P 500 (SPX) Wave 5 in ProgressShort Term Elliott Wave view on SP500 (SPX) suggests rally from 8.5.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 5627.56 high and pullback in wave 2 ended at 5402.62 low. The Index then extends higher in wave 3 ending at 5878.46 high. The next pullback built a zigzag Elliott Wave structure to finish wave 4 at 5696.51 low like the 1 hour chart below shows. Actually, the SPX is trading higher in wave 5 developing an impulse or ending diagonal structure. Wave 5 rally is in progress with internal subdivision as another impulse. Up from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 6017.31 high and wave ((ii)) retracement ended at 5853.01 low. Wave ((iii)) has started and it is trading in wave v of (iii) of ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 5908.12 and wave (ii) correction ended at 5855.29. Then the SPX built a nest ending wave i at 5923.51 and wave ii at 5860.56. Wave iii of (iii) finished at 6025.42 and wave iv pullback at 5984.87 low. From here, we are expecting that wave v of (iii) completes soon and the index should see a pullback in 3 swings as wave (iv) before resuming higher in wave (v) of ((iii)). Near term, as far as pivot at 5850.8 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside
SP:SPX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
S&P500 This Inflation Cheatsheet shows no correction in 2025.This is a chart we first posted almost 4 months ago (August 14, see chart below) at the time of a CPI date release, where we viewed the S&P500 index (SPX) against Inflation (red trend-line) and calling for an immediate buy: ** The 1W MA50 as the ultimate Support ** Well the price jumped +11% since then from 5440 to over 6000. The first principle of this chart is that as long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting, investors should stay bullish. This is because all previous multi-year rallies since August 2011 that started within a Channel Up, ended upon a 1W candle close below the 1W MA50 and transitioned into a Megaphone pattern for the new Bear Phase. ** Declining Inflation fueling stocks ** Right now we are still on a declining Inflation trend, very similar to early 2014 (ellipse shape on Inflation), while the 1W RSI of SPX is declining inside a Channel Down. This is a Bearish Divergence, which during all previous SPX Channel Up patterns, didn't make the index top until the RSI broke below its 41.50 Support (notable exception of course the March 2020 COVID flash crash which was a one in 100 years Black Swan event). ** SPX Target and timing ** As a result, while the 1W RSI trades within its Channel Down and above 41.50 and all price candles close above the 1W MA50, we expect the index to extend the multi-year uptrend to 6900, which would represent a +95.84% rise from the October 2022 bottom, similar to the February 2015 High. Notice that the December 2021 top was also of a similar magnitude (+103%). As far as timing is concerned, we have calculated a model based on the 1W RSI top and the start of its Channel Down. As you see at that point, SPX always makes a medium-term pull-back (red Arc). This tends to be within the 0.382 - 0.618 time Fibonacci levels and on the 2011 - 2014 Bull Cycle, that was within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fib zone. As a result, applying this principle on the current Bull Cycle, the trend is now just 2 months past the 0.618 time Fib and we can expect a Cycle Top around December 2025. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
Full Gameplan For Monday Dec 2ndPlan for Monday **Supports:** • Major: 6045, 6032, 6024, 6014, 5988-93, 5983, 5961-5959, 5954, 5943, 5933, 5914, 5893, 5878-81, 5859-62, 5843, 5820. • Minor: 6038, 6033, 6018, 6009, 6002, 5976, 5972, 5948, 5928, 5922, 5921, 5908, 5904, 5885, 5869, 5864, 5854, 5850, 5836, 5828. **Resistances:** • Major: 6063, 6088, 6100, 6119, 6131, 6143, 6162, 6181, 6195-6200, 6223, 6242, 6253, 6274-78. • Minor: 6055, 6072, 6093, 6106, 6123, 6153, 6168, 6172, 6190, 6206, 6217, 6233, 6260, 6264. **Market Context and Strategy** Current Position: I am still trailing my 10% long runner from the 5988 reclaim last Monday, with adds already completed at 6002 and 6025. Last week was an extremely profitable session, and now is a time to sit back and wait for new opportunities. This means there is nothing for me to do until price resets. This means either 1) A sharp selloff or 2) ES starts to build another consolidation that gives me some structure to work with. Closing at all-time highs limits actionable trades at the open: 1. Longs: Risky due to potential retrace as normal volume returns Monday, and no current structure supports a strong continuation without price discovery. 2. Shorts: Not viable for my strategy as they go against strength and the prevailing uptrend, which is a very low win rate strategy. 3. Consolidation Risk: Very High, due to shorts and longs being of high risk... ultimately giving the need for the market to digest the recent parabolic move. Additionally, “Hangover Mondays” often see ES retrace a significant portion of a holiday rally, reflecting the shift from low-volume, artificial, hype holiday trading turning to real money trading basically. Of course this doesn’t always happen (there is no always in markets), but its a fairly strong seasonal tendency particularly after Thanksgiving week. **Bull Case for Monday:** The bull case depends on defending Friday’s breakout levels while building structure for continuation. Key zones for bulls to hold include: 1. 6045 (Major Support): The first key level to test. A flush and reclaim here or tight flagging would signal continued strength. 2. 6032 (Major Support): A failed breakdown at this level would confirm strong demand, providing an opportunity for longs. Upside targets: • Initial resistance at 6063. If bulls can consolidate or break through here, the next moves aim for 6072, 6088, and eventually 6100. Structure to watch: • A tight flag or basing above 6045 but below 6063 going into monday would signal readiness for a breakout continuation. **Bear Case for Monday:** There is no significant bear case unless 5993 fails, but short-term bearish setups could emerge if: 1. 6032 Breaks Down: A loss of this level would invalidate Friday’s breakout, signaling that the holiday rally may have been fake. 2. Sharp Flush to 6024: This would align with the typical “hangover” effect, where ES retraces the low-volume holiday move. Watch for failed breakdowns or reactions at this level before shorting below it. **Key to trading breakdowns:** • Do not chase. Look for: • A flush to 6024, followed by a reclaim and bounce, or • A failed breakdown at 6032 to gauge where buyers step in. • If these recalims subsequently fail, momentum could build toward lower supports like 6014, 5988-93, or deeper levels. My Short Entry Strategy: Wait for a final bounce attempt at the level (traps happen more than anything, so in order to short, you need to wait for a trap to happen first), then short after sellers flush the lows of the structure. This ensures demand has been exhausted first. More on this in Private group **Summary for Monday:** A light trading day with the following key takeaways: • Bullish Lean: Hold levels like 6045, 6032 (failed breakdown possible) to resume the breakout and test 6063, 6088, 6100+. • Bearish Risk: A failure of 6032 invalidates Friday’s breakout, likely leading to a deeper retrace to 6024, 6014, or lower. Be patient and wait for price discovery to reveal the next structure for setups. Avoid chasing moves in either direction and focus on clear opportunities with defined risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Holiday Trading Plan Nov 28th & 29thNOTE: This trade plan is for the next two days. Both Thursday and Friday are half days for futures closing at 1pm EST. The NYSE is closed tomorrow, but open for a half day Friday. Volatility and volume will be very light and setups will be limited. The below levels are also for two sessions, which means they may be less precise than usual as I am basically averaging two days. I will post any real-time revisions and updates in private group as the day goes on. Plan for Thursday and Friday’s Sessions Supports: • Major: 6009, 5993-89, 5963, 5952, 5933, 5921, 5908, 5878-5880, 5850-55, 5837, 5818-22, 5802, 5773, 5757-59. • Minor: 6002, 5998, 5981, 5972, 5967, 5957, 5942, 5928, 5902, 5892, 5885, 5869, 5864, 5842, 5828, 5812, 5806, 5790, 5782, 5766. Resistances: • Major: 6025-28, 6045-50, 6069, 6089, 6112, 6121, 6134, 6152, 6185, 6195, 6214, 6232, 6245, 6263, 6271-76. • Minor: 6017, 6033, 6039, 6055, 6062, 6076, 6082, 6095, 6117, 6142, 6163, 6171, 6200, 6208, 6225, 6238, 6256. Context and Strategy: The market remains in a large consolidation base between 5993-89 and 6045-50, with numerous key levels within this congested range (6009, 6025). I am still holding my 10% long runner from the ~6002 add this afternoon. With the next two sessions being holiday trading days, do not over-trade. These sessions will likely have low volume, low liquidity, and a higher failure rate for setups due to the absence of substantial institutional participation. Most holiday sessions tend to drift higher, but this is not guaranteed. Friday morning could see some better moves, but my bias is to avoid entries until Monday and let my runner continue working. Key Levels to Watch: 1. 6009 (Major Support): This is the first downside test, but it has been heavily worked already. Unlikely to provide a strong setup without fresh demand. 2. 5993-89 (Critical Support): A retest here provides a safer long opportunity if bulls defend this level again. Look for a possible Failed Breakdown at this level to confirm demand remains intact. 3. 6025-28 (Major Resistance): This area remains a key upside test. Reaction here could determine whether bulls can push higher or if the range tightens further. Scenarios for Thursday and Friday: Bull Case: 1. Hold 5993-89: As long as bulls defend this zone, the range remains intact, and ES can build structure for another push higher. This could look like a test of 6025-28, a minor dip, and then a re-test of 6045-50. 2. Breakout Above 6045-50: If bulls clear this resistance, the next targets are 6069, then 6089. Further upside could extend toward 6112 and beyond. 3. Ultra Bullish Scenario: ES skips further downside tests entirely, flagging above 6009 and pushing directly to test 6025-28. A breakout here sets the stage for continuation toward the highs. ** I’d normally give a spot to add on strength but we have two holiday sessions ahead so this is impossible to do without seeing the action real-time. Bear Case: 1. Breakdown Below 5993-89: For a short setup, patience is critical. The ideal entry comes after: • A final bounce attempt at 5993-89, or • A failed breakdown of today’s low that fizzles out, ensuring the demand from this level has been exhausted. Enter short only after sellers flush below the structure’s lows (e.g., 5986 or higher), confirming that demand has been taken off the table. This reduces the risk of being trapped by a reversal. Refer to Edu Section for example. 2. Targets on Breakdown: If 5993-89 fails and momentum builds, watch for a test of 5963, 5952, or even a failed breakdown recovery around 5972. Be cautious as breakdown trades are low win-rate setups and prone to trapping shorts unless confirmed. Summary for Thursday and Friday: • Bullish Lean: As long as 5993-89 holds, the market remains in consolidation. This favors a move toward 6025-28, followed by an eventual breakout to 6069, 6089, and higher. • Bearish Risks: A loss of 5993-89 could trigger a deeper sell-off to 5963, 5952, or beyond. Short setups require patience and confirmation of seller strength. Holiday trading requires extra caution. Avoid chasing moves, focus on high-probability setups, and let price confirm structure before taking trades. Remember: Low liquidity can lead to erratic moves. Stay disciplined and prioritize capital preservation.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
S&P potential long when new york market opensas the bullish daily bias show us, we can see some liq to the downside that could be taken . after that we could react at the 70-80 % fib level , which is as well at the 1h Order Block . that would give us nice confirmation and we could take a trade if we get a good setup to that, the main thing is that we are bullish and that we want to get higher. but unfortunately everything can happen and we are not forcing trades. Risk 1-3 %
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by lazar_tata_business
S&P500 Don't expect the rally to stop now.Our last S&P500 (SPX) analysis (November 18, see chart below) gave us the ideal buy entry on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, with the price immediately responding with a rebound: The rebound took place on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and we are now even past the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Despite the strong uptrend, this rally is far from over technically, as not only is the 4H RSI below the (70.00) overbought barrier where it has given the first bearish signs near the two previous Higher Highs, but also significantly lower than the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the September 06 Channel Up. As a result we expect a continuation of the current Bullish Leg. The previous one peaked on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, so our Target is now just below it at 6150. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 25th: SP500, NAS, DOW = BUY THEM!The three indices are bullish. They each had a Daily +FVG they found support in, and were bullish from that point of contact. The DOW is the strongest, and may be the best bet, even though it is a wildcard most times. The SP500 is probably the safest buy, as the NASDAQ is the weakest of the three. If things turn bearish for any reason, the best short will be in the NASDAQ. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by RT_Money
Full Game Plan for Monday Nov 25thPlan for Monday’s Session Supports: • Major: 5972, 5945, 5933, 5908, 5899, 5884-5882, 5869, 5855, 5845, 5828, 5818, 5802, 5782, 5760, 5752, 5731, 5709-11, 5691, 5683. • Minor: 5980, 5967, 5961, 5957, 5948, 5944, 5928, 5922, 5914, 5904, 5893, 5878, 5865, 5850, 5839, 5835, 5812, 5806, 5793, 5777, 5740, 5721, 5702, 5695. Resistances: • Major: 5988, 6002, 6017, 6027, 6032, 6050, 6070, 6082, 6093, 6111-13, 6132, 6138, 6172, 6189. • Minor: 5993, 5998, 6009, 6023, 6038, 6046, 6056, 6062, 6075, 6101, 6117, 6146, 6156, 6165, 6178. **Context and Strategy:** ES is coming off a strong Friday close at 5988, right at a key resistance zone. Price action remains in a clear uptrend, but with no major pullbacks or basing structure formed, actionable setups for Monday will require patience. Those who have been here should know what I'm going to say. My absolute least favorite time to trade is days after trend leg. My job is to get in before these big moves. After they play out, my job is done, and I just need to sit and wait for the next setup to appear. This requires one of two things 1) A sharp pullback or 2) Structure (basing to form). If we just keep trending up, there is nothing for me other than holding my runners and letting them do the work. Patients will be verified on Monday. **Key Levels for Monday:** 1. First Support at 5972: A dip and recovery here could provide a solid base for continuation higher. 2. Major Support at 5945: If 5972 fails, 5945 becomes the next key level. This area has been well-tested and could provide a reaction or bounce, but the cleanest trade would come from a failed breakdown here. 3. Resistance at 6002: A breakout above this level opens the door for higher targets, including 6017 and 6027. **Bull Case for Monday:** • Hold Above 5972: Bulls maintain control as long as price holds 5972. A flag or consolidation at this level would create a strong base for a push higher. • Breakout Through 6002: Reclaiming 6002 and holding above it could fuel momentum toward 6017 and 6027. • Structure Above 5988: Building a base above 5988 and below 6002 creates a launchpad for further upside. **Bear Case for Monday:** • Breakdown Below 5972: A failure at 5972 would likely lead to a test of 5945. I’d need to see a good bounce attempt here and/or failed breakdown (something like test 5967 then recover 72). After this, I’d short below wherever the lows are (probably something like 5964). • Failed Breakdown at 5945: As always, breakdown trades carry higher risk. Same drill at a 5972 short...A dip below 5945 that recovers quickly could signal a trap for shorts. Wait for confirmation (e.g., a bounce that pays out buyers and then a loss of the lows) before entering. • Exhaustion at Resistance: Bears can also look for sell reactions at key resistances (6002, 6017) to test lower supports. I never short resistances. Win rate is too low for my liking **Summary for Monday:** • Bullish Lean: As long as 5972 holds, the short-term trend remains intact. Watch for opportunities to break out above 6002, targeting 6017 and 6027. • Bearish Lean: Bears need to break below 5972 or 5945 to regain control and push the market lower toward 5933 and 5908. Failed breakdown setups, however, remain the safer option for entering long positions. Reminder: Patience is critical. It’s safer to wait for failed breakdown setups than longing after direct tests, especially at key supports, and confirm with volume before entering long positions if you want to be super precise. Avoid chasing momentum and let the market come to you.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
S&P500: Bottom formed on the 4H MA200. Target 6,140.The S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.959, MACD = 37.160, ADX = 31.912) as it is on a sideways trade forming the new bottom of the Channel Up between the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200. The 1D RSI is on a bullish divergence that was present on both prior bottoms. Both rose by at least +5.30% after. That rise projection from the bottom is our target (TP = 6,140). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
1